FICC日报 | 2025-07-10 指数冲高回落，传媒行业领涨 市场分析 CPI回升。国内方面，国家统计局发布数据，中国6月CPI同比上涨0.1%，为连续下降4个月后转涨；核心CPI继续 回升，同比上涨0.7%，创14个月新高。PPI环比下降0.4%，降幅与上月相同，同比下降3.6%，降幅比上月扩大0.3 个百分点。海外方面，特朗普发布致8个国家领导人有关加征关税的信函，此次税率从20%至50%不等，其中巴西 将被征收50%的关税，新税率将从8月1日起生效。特朗普预告本周还会有更多此类信函发出。 指数冲高回落。现货市场，A股三大指数冲高回落，上证指数跌0.13%收于3493.05点，创业板指涨0.16%。行业方 面，板块指数涨跌互现，传媒、农林牧渔、商贸零售行业领涨，有色金属、基础化工、电力行业跌幅居前。当日 沪深两市成交金额升至1.5万亿元。海外市场，美国三大股指全线收涨，科技巨头走强，纳指涨0.94%收于20611.34 点，创历史新高。 IH基差回升。期货市场，基差走势分化，IH、IF延续小幅修复。成交持仓方面，期指的成交量和持仓量同步下降。 策略 特朗普向新一批国家致信施压，延续对外政策攻势，科技 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.36% as of the morning close, with a trading volume of 783.11 million shares and a transaction amount of 934.47 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.50% compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - Real estate, banking, and oil & petrochemicals sectors showed the highest gains, with increases of 1.53%, 1.42%, and 1.23% respectively [1] - The automotive, defense, and electronics sectors experienced the largest declines, with decreases of 0.93%, 0.92%, and 0.76% respectively [2] Leading Stocks - In the real estate sector, Yuhua Development led with a gain of 9.94% [1] - In the banking sector, Minsheng Bank rose by 5.12% [1] - In the oil & petrochemicals sector, *ST Xinchao increased by 5.08% [1] - In the steel sector, Jinling Mining surged by 10.02% [1] - In the non-bank financial sector, Nanhua Futures also rose by 10.02% [1] - In the pharmaceutical sector, Qianyuan Pharmaceutical saw a significant increase of 19.98% [1] Sector Summary - The real estate sector had a transaction amount of 117.03 billion yuan, up 26.74% from the previous day [1] - The banking sector recorded a transaction amount of 266.82 billion yuan, up 36.61% [1] - The oil & petrochemicals sector had a transaction amount of 80.95 billion yuan, up 36.47% [1] - The automotive sector had a transaction amount of 389.36 billion yuan, down 16.50% [2] - The defense sector recorded a transaction amount of 316.85 billion yuan, down 23.79% [2] - The electronics sector had a transaction amount of 1,036.63 billion yuan, down 10.88% [2]

证券研究报告 2025 年 7 月 10 日 星期四 【A 股市场大势研判】 大盘冲高回落，沪指 3500 点得而复失 市场表现： | 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 上证指数分时图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3493.05 | -0.13% | -4.43 | | | 深证成指 | 10581.80 | -0.06% | -6.60 | | | 沪深 300 | 3991.40 | -0.18% | -7.05 | | | 创业板 | 2184.67 | 0.16% | 3.60 | | | 科创 50 | 983.11 | -0.89% | -8.84 | | | 北证 50 | 1410.36 | -0.75% | -10.63 | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 数据 板块排名： | 申万行业表现前五 | | | 申万行业表现后五 | 概 | 念板块表现前五 | 概念板块表现后五 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 传媒 | 1.35% ...

Group 1 - A total of 18 companies listed on the ChiNext board have released their performance forecasts for the first half of the year, with 13 companies expecting profit increases, 1 company expecting to turn a profit, 1 company expecting a profit decrease, and 1 company expecting a loss [1][3] Group 2 - The performance forecast details include various companies with significant expected profit growth, such as: - Hanyu Pharmaceutical (300199) with a projected profit increase of 1567.36% [2] - Chuanjin Nuo (300505) with a projected profit increase of 167.27% [2] - Chenguang Biotech (300138) with a projected profit increase of 117.36% [2] - Huizhong (300371) with a projected profit increase of 100.00% [2] - Taotao Automotive (301345) with a projected profit increase of 84.08% [2] Group 3 - Companies with performance forecasts indicating a decrease or loss include: - Zairun (301636) with a projected profit decrease of 5.43% [2] - Yuyou Green Energy (301590) with a projected profit decrease of 6.57% [2] - Juguang (300203) with a projected loss of 205.37% [2]

分行业统计，获融资客净买入超亿元个股中，有色金属、电力设备、医药生物等行业最为集中，分别有 3只、2只、2只个股上榜。板块分布上，大手笔净买入个股中，主板有9只，创业板有2只。 融资客大手笔净买入个股中，从最新融资余额占流通市值比例看，算术平均值为3.28%，融资余额占比 最高的是金开新能，该股最新融资余额10.16亿元，占流通市值的比例为8.52%，融资余额占比较高的还 有东山精密、国轩高科、巨化股份，占比分别为6.36%、4.69%、4.09%。（数据宝） 截至7月9日，市场融资余额合计1.86万亿元，较前一交易日增加38.43亿元，这已经是融资余额连续3个 交易日持续增加，其中，沪市融资余额9329.60亿元，较前一交易日增加18.84亿元；深市融资余额 9168.57亿元，较前一交易日增加19.59亿元；北交所融资余额59.19亿元，较前一交易日增加48.84万元。 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，具体到个股，7月9日共有1875只股获融资净买入，净买入金额在千万元以 上的有434只，其中11只融资净买入额超亿元。紫金矿业融资净买入额居首，当日净买入3.10亿元，其 次是洛阳钼业、东山精密，融资净买入金额分 ...

转债市场日度跟踪 20250709 市场概况：今日转债缩量下跌，估值环比压缩 债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 指数表现：中证转债指数环比下降 0.25%、上证综指环比下降 0.13%、深证成 指环比下降 0.06%、创业板指环比上涨 0.16%、上证 50 指数环比下降 0.26%、 中证 1000 指数环比下降 0.27%。 市场风格：小盘价值相对占优。大盘成长环比下降 0.23%、大盘价值环比下降 0.13%、中盘成长环比下降 0.60%、中盘价值环比下降 0.17%、小盘成长环比 下降 0.32%、小盘价值环比下降 0.01%。 资金表现：转债市场成交情绪减弱。可转债市场成交额为 679.72 亿元，环比 减少 9.64%；万得全 A 总成交额为 15274.20 亿元，环比增长 3.58%；沪深两 市主力净流出 285.94 亿元，十年国债收益率环比上升 0.02bp 至 1.64%。 转债价格：转债中枢下降，高价券占比下降。转债整体收盘价加权平均值为 123.61 元，环比昨日下降 0.24%。其中偏股型转债的收盘价为 165.61 元，环比 下降 1.49%；偏债型转债的收盘价为 ...

国家税务总局青海省税务局税收数据显示，去年5月—今年5月，大规模设备更新政策实施重点领域经营 主体设备更新加快，生产稳中有升；消费品以旧换新政策落地见效明显，消费市场信心稳步增强。 增值税发票数据显示，去年5月—今年5月，青海省家电产品消费"升温"，冰箱等日用家电零售业、电视 机等家用视听设备零售业开票销售收入同比分别增长1.1倍、36.6%；家居产品特别是智能家居产品消费 走高，家具、卫生洁具零售业开票销售收入同比分别增长55.4%、27.1%，其中扫地机器人等智能家电 开票销售收入同比增长3.9倍；汽车以旧换新需求持续释放，全省新车零售开票销售金额同比增长 11.8%。消费品以旧换新政策带动一年来全省零售业开票销售收入同比增长4.8%，快于全省平均增速9.7 个百分点，消费促进经济内循环和实现高质量发展的重要引擎作用不断显现。(林浩索南尼玛韩世峰) 增值税发票数据显示：去年5月—今年5月，青海省有色、钢铁行业采购机械设备取得发票金额同比分别 增长2.8倍、92.1%；信息传输软件和信息技术服务业、科学研究和技术服务业采购设备取得发票金额同 比分别增长14.9%、36.4%；农林牧渔业采购农机设备取得发票金 ...

- The industry mainline model uses the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator to identify leading industries. The construction process involves calculating the past 20, 40, and 60 trading days' returns for 29 primary industry indices, normalizing the rankings, and averaging them to derive the final RSI value. Industries with RSI > 90% by April are likely to lead the market for the year[11][13][14] - The industry rotation model is based on the "Prosperity-Trend-Crowdedness" framework. It includes two sub-models: the industry prosperity model (high prosperity + strong trend, avoiding high crowdedness) and the industry trend model (strong trend + low crowdedness, avoiding low prosperity). Historical backtesting shows annualized excess returns of 14.4%, IR of 1.56, and a maximum drawdown of -7.4%[16][18][22] - The left-side inventory reversal model focuses on industries with low inventory pressure and potential for restocking. It identifies sectors undergoing a rebound from current or past difficulties. Historical backtesting shows absolute returns of 25.9% in 2024 and excess returns of 14.8% relative to equal-weighted industry benchmarks[28][30][29] - The industry ETF allocation model applies the prosperity-trend-crowdedness framework to ETFs. It achieves annualized excess returns of 15.5% against the CSI 800 benchmark, with an IR of 1.81. The model's excess returns were 6.0% in 2023, 5.3% in 2024, and 7.7% in 2025[22][27][16] - The industry prosperity stock selection model combines industry weights from the prosperity-trend-crowdedness framework with PB-ROE scoring to select high-value stocks within industries. Historical backtesting shows annualized excess returns of 20.0%, IR of 1.72, and a maximum drawdown of -15.4%[23][26][16] - The industry prosperity-trend model achieved excess returns of 3.9% in 2025, while the inventory reversal model showed absolute returns of 1.3% and excess returns of -2.1% relative to equal-weighted industry benchmarks[16][28][30]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.13% on July 9, with 17 out of the 28 sectors rising, led by Media and Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery, which increased by 1.35% and 0.65% respectively [2] - The sectors with the largest declines were Non-ferrous Metals and Basic Chemicals, which dropped by 2.26% and 0.85% respectively [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The main capital outflow from the two markets totaled 38.536 billion yuan, with only three sectors experiencing net inflows: Media (1.055 billion yuan), Retail (864 million yuan), and Construction Decoration (40.34 million yuan) [2] - The Electronic sector saw the largest net outflow, amounting to 7.789 billion yuan, followed by Non-ferrous Metals with 5.412 billion yuan [2] Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Sector - The Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery sector rose by 0.65% despite a net capital outflow of 437 million yuan [3] - Out of 103 stocks in this sector, 40 stocks increased, with one hitting the daily limit, while 55 stocks declined [3] - The top three stocks with net inflows were Xinwufeng (31.4665 million yuan), Haida Group (28.3706 million yuan), and Juxing Agriculture (21.9941 million yuan) [3][4] Top Gainers and Losers in Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery - **Top Gainers**: - Xinwufeng: +0.65%, 4.20% turnover, 31.4665 million yuan inflow [4] - Juxing Agriculture: +0.76%, 4.49% turnover, 21.9941 million yuan inflow [4] - **Top Losers**: - Muyuan Foods: -3.27%, 1.81% turnover, 71.5922 million yuan outflow [5] - Guolian Aquatic Products: -1.76%, 8.74% turnover, 45.2607 million yuan outflow [5]

证券时报·数据宝统计，截至下午13:58，今日沪指涨0.36%，A股成交量963.91亿股，成交金额11922.75 亿元，比上一个交易日增加3.80%。个股方面，2369只个股上涨，其中涨停55只，2816只个股下跌，其 中跌停6只。从申万行业来看，传媒、银行、农林牧渔等涨幅最大，涨幅分别为1.38%、1.17%、 1.04%；有色金属、基础化工、电子等跌幅最大，跌幅分别为1.64%、0.50%、0.37%。（数据宝） 注：本文系新闻报道，不构成投资建议，股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 （文章来源：证券时报网） 今日各行业表现（截至下午13:58） | 申万行业 | 行业涨跌（%） | 成交额（亿元） | 比上日（%） | 领涨（跌）股 | 涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 传媒 | 1.38 | 416.89 | 22.15 | 中文在线 | 12.09 | | 银行 | 1.17 | 239.83 | 0.73 | 厦门银行 | 2.99 | | 农林牧渔 | 1.04 | 163.50 | 29.65 | 国投中鲁 | 10.03 | | 建筑 ...