如果说降息预期+比特币周期性供应减半+美元信用受损+特朗普政府的监管友好，支撑了加密货币从2022年至今的上涨。 截至6月23日，加密货币市场规模来到了3.3万亿美元，自2023年以来，上涨了快三倍。其中最为大家熟知的，规模最大、市值贡献超60%的比特币，也从2023年 中，不足3万美元一枚上涨至今天的10万+。 3.3万亿美元是什么概念？它相当于全球GDP的3%。如果把整体加密资产，视作一个国家经济体或者是一个叫Crypto的公司，那么： 当下的加密资产等同于一个中上等发达国家的经济水平，击败法国位列全球第7； 同时也是一个超越苹果（3万亿），成为全球第三大市值的公司。 排在前面的微软、英伟达，3.6万亿左右，以当下的趋势 Crypto成为全球老大指日可待。 因此，站在全球资产配置的视角，加密货币资产越来越难被忽视，海豚君决定开始着手跟踪。 考虑到监管仍然是当下最大的影响因素，目前尚处于从严到有所放松的中间地带，因此我们优先选择 商业模式良好、合规属性较高 的龙头公司开展研究。 加密资产系列以Coinbase打头阵，本篇将主要讨论Coinbase的 商业模式和未来增长的核心逻辑 ，下篇将重点围绕稳定币展开， ...

Core Insights - XBIT decentralized exchange platform is gaining investor attention due to its trustless trading mechanism and reliance on smart contracts for automatic execution of trading rules, providing a secure and fair trading environment [1][4][9] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has significantly declined, dropping over 4 basis points to 4.213%, marking a two-month low, while the 30-year yield fell over 5 basis points to 4.761% [1][4] - A controversial spending bill, referred to as a "massive and beautiful bill," has passed a key procedural hurdle in the Senate, potentially increasing U.S. debt by over $3.9 trillion if approved [4] Group 2: XBIT Platform Features - XBIT has established a bank-grade security system, storing 99% of user assets in geographically dispersed cold wallet nodes, and employs Shamir's secret sharing technique to enhance asset protection [2] - The platform supports over 200 assets across major public chains like Ethereum and BNBChain, utilizing a liquidity aggregation algorithm to find optimal prices for users [6] - XBIT offers advanced trading features such as limit orders and stop-loss orders, allowing users to set conditions for automatic trade execution while keeping gas costs low [6] Group 3: Bitcoin Market Insights - Bitcoin has experienced significant price volatility, with notable drops in April and February, influenced by global economic conditions and regulatory changes [6] - During market panic, investors betting on rising cryptocurrency prices have faced substantial losses, with a reported $1.38 billion in liquidations on a single day [6]

市场消息：美国最高法院驳回了保护Coinbase用户数据不受国税局获取的请求。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Supreme Court has rejected a request to protect Coinbase user data from being accessed by the IRS [1] Group 1 - The decision allows the IRS to obtain user data from Coinbase, which may impact user privacy and regulatory compliance [1] - This ruling could set a precedent for how cryptocurrency exchanges handle user data in relation to government inquiries [1] - The outcome may influence investor confidence in cryptocurrency platforms and their ability to safeguard user information [1]

智通财经6月30日电，美国银行全球研究将COINBASE价格目标从259美元上调至397美元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The S&P 500 index surged by 10% in the second quarter, significantly outperforming the European Stoxx 600 index, which rose by less than 2%, indicating a potential end to the narrative of U.S. exceptionalism in the stock market [1][3]. Group 1: U.S. Market Performance - The strong performance of U.S. stocks surprised many investors, who had anticipated that Trump's tariff policies would lead to a capital shift towards European markets [3]. - The rebound in U.S. stocks has diminished investor confidence in the sustainability of the shift towards European markets, despite European stocks slightly outperforming U.S. stocks overall this year [3][4]. - U.S. stocks are supported by multiple factors, including better-than-expected employment data, stable unemployment rates, retail investors buying on dips, and record corporate buybacks [7]. Group 2: European Market Concerns - Despite the overall performance of the Stoxx Europe 600 index being up by 7% this year compared to the S&P 500's 5%, recent poor performance has raised investor concerns about the sustainability of momentum created by Germany's defense and infrastructure spending plans [4][5]. - The European market faces challenges related to profitability, with skepticism about whether countries like Germany will effectively implement infrastructure plans [5]. - Recent surveys indicated a decline in consumer and business confidence in the EU and Eurozone, reflecting the impact of increased tariffs [5]. Group 3: Diverging Investor Sentiment - Some investors maintain expectations for a broader rotation in the U.S. stock market, despite concerns over high valuations [8]. - Analysts from Goldman Sachs suggest that U.S. stock valuations have become excessively high, indicating a potential shift towards diversification in investment strategies [8]. - Pictet Asset Management's chief strategist believes that long-term economic growth slowdowns in the U.S. and fiscal stimulus in Europe could help narrow the performance gap between the two regions [8].

中金点睛"本周精选"栏目将带您回顾本周深受读者欢迎的研究报告。 01 策略 Strategy 稳定币影响初探 >>点击图片查看全文<< 今年5月，美国和中国香港接连就稳定币监管立法，引发市场关注。稳定币之"稳定"在于其作为一种加密货币，通过与其他资产（通常为法定货币） 挂钩来稳定其价格，区别于比特币等价格波动较高的原生加密货币，稳定币用途更多在于行使货"币"作为交换媒介和计价单位的功能。在币值稳定的 前提下，稳定币依托区块链有望使跨境支付更快速、更廉价、更便捷 。稳定币一方面有助于稳固美元储备地位，另一方面当前美元主导的国际货币 体系生变，国际货币体系正在加速重构，若其他国家发行的稳定币并不锚定美元，也可能进一步挑战美元的储备货币地位。稳定币的发展对美元影响 如何仍需要进一步研究和探索。结合中金研究行业组的观点，我们认为稳定币发展可能相关的企业主要包括：银行IT服务商，电信运营商，加密货币 交易所，作为稳定币交易通道的金融机构等。 图表：美元在全球外汇储备中占比有所下降但仍是主导 资料来源：Haver，中金公司研究部 2025.06.22 | 李求索 张歆瑜等 >>点击图片跳转报告原文<< 02 策略 Str ...

Core Insights - The rise of virtual currency trading platforms is attracting global investor attention due to their decentralized, global, and highly liquid nature [1] - Regulatory challenges are emerging in the financial technology sector as the virtual currency market rapidly develops, necessitating a balance between innovation and market stability [1] Regulatory Compliance - Establishing and enforcing effective laws and regulations is crucial for the compliance of virtual currency trading platforms [3] - Many countries are beginning to regulate virtual currencies, but existing legal frameworks often struggle to adapt to the cross-border nature and complexity of these assets [3] - International cooperation is needed to create a unified regulatory framework, as exemplified by the EU's 2018 "Crypto-Asset Market Directive," which provides clear legal guidance for compliance [3] Risk Management - Platforms must enhance their risk control and internal compliance mechanisms due to the high volatility of the virtual currency market [3] - A robust risk management system is essential for timely identification and response to potential risks, ensuring user fund security and transaction fairness [3] Investor Protection - Building investor protection mechanisms is vital in the high-risk virtual currency market to prevent uninformed decision-making [5] - Platforms should provide transparent information disclosure and risk warnings to help investors understand market complexities and potential risks [5] - Educational services, such as online courses and seminars, should be offered to improve investors' understanding and operational skills [5] Dispute Resolution - Virtual currency trading platforms should establish effective complaint and dispute resolution mechanisms to protect investor rights [7] - Providing efficient customer service and impartial third-party mediation can enhance platform credibility and investor trust [7] - Introducing an "Investor Protection Fund" could offer financial security to users in case of significant losses due to platform issues [7] Dynamic Regulation - Regulatory approaches for the virtual currency market should be dynamic and adaptable to technological advancements and market changes [9] - Collaboration among government, industry, and regulatory bodies is essential for promoting healthy market development [9] - Governments should create stable legal frameworks while industry players should comply with regulatory policies to foster self-regulation and industry standards [9] Conclusion - The dual focus on compliance and investor protection is critical for the sustainable development of virtual currency trading platforms [9] - A more regulated environment is anticipated to enhance the safety, transparency, and fairness of trading for global investors, driving the growth of the financial technology sector [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Bitcoin market experienced significant volatility, with prices dropping over 8% within four hours, reaching a low of $98,882.84, raising concerns about short-term trends and market dynamics [1][3]. Market Dynamics - The current Bitcoin market is characterized by a "volume and price decline" scenario, with trading volume significantly shrinking and market activity at a low point [1]. - Technical indicators such as MACD and KDJ suggest a prevailing bearish sentiment, with potential for further sell-offs if key support levels are breached [1][3]. Support and Resistance Levels - XBIT decentralized exchange identified critical price levels: a support level at $103,894, which is crucial for bulls to defend, and a resistance level at $108,849, where significant selling pressure exists [3]. - The market is currently in a "downward continuation" pattern, with a focus on the effectiveness of the $103,894 support level [3]. Security Features of XBIT - XBIT emphasizes its security through three core technologies: smart contract audits, on-chain fund custody, and MEV attack prevention, ensuring a robust trading environment [5]. - The platform's decentralized nature is highlighted as a response to the vulnerabilities seen in centralized exchanges during market downturns [5][7]. Investment Strategies - XBIT provides tailored investment strategies, including aggressive and conservative approaches, with specific buy and sell points to navigate current market volatility [5]. - Recommendations include using limit orders to mitigate slippage risks and leveraging margin-sharing features for flexible capital allocation [5]. Industry Outlook - The recent Bitcoin price drop underscores the liquidity weaknesses of centralized exchanges, while decentralized platforms like XBIT maintain smooth trading operations [7]. - XBIT remains optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term value, suggesting that institutional funds may accelerate entry as interest rates decline [7].

在稳定币热潮持续升温之际，Coinbase(COIN.O)股价周二大涨，形成了被华尔街许多人视为长期利好的 技术图形——"黄金交叉"。 不过，从近期历史来看，尽管"黄金交叉"的名字听起来颇具吸引力，投资者在跟进买入前仍应三思，因 为过去几次类似信号都未能成为有效的市场时机指标，尤其对长期投资者而言。 周二，Coinbase股价上涨12.1%，是标普500指数（SPX）中涨幅最大的成分股，收盘价创下自2021年11 月以来新高。 该股上一次出现"黄金交叉"是在2024年11月26日，尽管此后股价又上涨了24%，但仅在七个交易日后便 见顶回落。 而上一次"死亡交叉"（即50日均线下穿200日均线）则发生在2024年4月3日，即特朗普总统宣布"解放 日"关税，引发市场抛售的第二天。该股随后又跌了11.3%，但仅三天后就触底反弹。 还有一次死亡交叉出现在2024年9月20日，但那次的信号滞后明显，股价早在10个交易日前就已触底， 并反弹了15.4%。 2023年6月30日也曾出现过一次黄金交叉，之后股价曾大涨291%，但那次是少见的例外，直到九个月后 才见顶。 与此同时，周二该股的50日移动平均线（被广泛视为短期趋势 ...