Market Analysis & Investment Strategy - The home construction ETF (ITB) is experiencing its best day since May 12th [1] - Housing recovery is estimated to be at least two years away, according to Piper Sandler [1] - Interest rates are showing signs of potential decline, with yields at 6-week lows [2] - The 30-year fixed mortgage rate remains high at 68%, but is expected to decrease [2] - Market anticipates potential rate cuts in the fall [3] Company Performance & Valuation - D R Horton's stock is considered cheap at 11 times forward estimates [1] - Company guidance regarding margins and deliveries has been adjusted to reasonable levels [2] - D R Horton's execution is considered very good, among the best in the industry [4] - Toll Brothers is also recognized for excellent execution [4]

Housing Market Trends - New home sales experienced a nearly 14% month-over-month decline in May, marking the biggest drop in three years [1] - Existing home sales managed a slight increase in May despite headwinds [5] - Resale inventory is up 20% compared to last year [5] Affordability and Demand - Housing affordability has improved slightly from a year ago, but home sales continue to "bounce along the bottom" [3] - Consumer confidence dropped drastically in April, impacting housing demand [4] - A frozen labor market and a potentially rising unemployment rate pose headwinds for housing demand [4][6] Seller and Buyer Dynamics - The market is rebalancing, with bargaining power shifting towards buyers [10] - There were the most price cuts for any May since 2018, indicating sellers and buyers are coming back together [9] - Sellers are facing more competition and need to be more strategic [10] Economic Factors - The labor market is a key factor to watch, potentially more important than higher interest rates [6] - Inflation is roughly 21%, as measured by PCE [7] - The impact of tariffs is already playing itself out [8] Future Outlook - Zillow's forecasting team believes home sales could increase slightly and finish the year slightly higher than in 2024 [12]

Housing Market Overview - Housing starts and permits in May were below expectations [2] - New home construction is at a five-year low [1][5] Multifamily Housing - Multifamily starts decreased over 30% month-to-month [2] - Record supply of new apartment units has been delivered in recent years [2] - Permits, a future indicator, are higher due to stronger rental demand [2] Single-Family Housing - Single-family starts were flat for the month and down over 7% year-over-year [3] - Low builder sentiment and weaker outlook from Lenar's earnings report contribute to the slowdown [3] - Consumer reluctance to invest due to high costs, rates, and economic uncertainty [3] Mortgage Demand - Mortgage applications to purchase a home dropped again last week [4] - Applications for newly built homes were down over 4% year-over-year in May [4] - Mortgage rates have been hovering just below 7% [4]

Core Insights - New homes are becoming more affordable in the current housing market, with the median list price for newly built homes decreasing to $448,393 in Q1 2025, the lowest price gap with existing homes in five years [1][4] - The construction of smaller homes and lower mortgage rates for new home buyers are contributing to this affordability trend [1][3] Market Dynamics - The U.S. is facing a shortage of approximately four million homes, with new construction helping to bridge the affordability gap left by a tight existing home market [2] - Builders are focusing on delivering smaller homes at lower prices, often providing financial incentives to make monthly payments more manageable [2][5] Mortgage Rate Trends - Buyers of newly built homes are securing mortgage rates about 0.5 percentage points lower than those purchasing existing homes, translating to over $160 in monthly savings on a median-priced new home [3][9] Price Premium Analysis - The premium on newly built homes has decreased to 13.5% in Q1 2025, the lowest since tracking began in 2020, due to a 1.3% decline in new home prices compared to rising existing home prices [4][9] - Newly built homes now account for 18.5% of active listings, which is higher than during the pandemic years [4] Regional Insights - Among the 100 largest U.S. metropolitan areas, 26 markets have seen year-over-year declines in both median listing price and square footage of newly built homes, particularly in the South [6][7] - Notable price drops include Little Rock, Ark. with a 12.9% decrease, and significant reductions in Colorado Springs, Colo. and Oxnard, Calif. [7] Future Challenges - Proposed tariffs on key building materials, such as an increase in duties on Canadian lumber from 14% to 34%, could threaten the affordability gains achieved in recent quarters [8]

Group 1: ETF Performance and Market Reaction - The iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB) has increased by 3.3%, trading at $90.39, largely driven by PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) after its strong first-quarter earnings and revenue report [1] - PulteGroup's stock (PHM) rose by 8.1% to $100.68, marking its best single-session gain since January 2023, although it has been on a downward trend since reaching an all-time high of $149.47 on October 21 [2] Group 2: Options Trading Activity - There is a significant increase in put options trading for PulteGroup, with a 10-day put/call volume ratio of 1.90, indicating a strong appetite for long puts, ranking in the 78th percentile of its annual range [4] - The stock's Schaeffer's open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.47 is in the 81st percentile, suggesting that short-term option traders are currently more put-biased than usual [4] - Notable attention is being given to a January 2026 95-strike LEAPS trade, with over 2,300 puts changing hands, which is double the average intraday volume [5]