库存 成本利润 -10000 10000 30000 50000 70000 90000 110000 130000 150000 01/01 01/24 02/16 03/11 04/03 04/26 05/19 06/11 07/04 07/27 08/19 09/11 10/04 10/27 11/19 12/12 硅铁：60家样本企业：库存：中国（周） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 01/01 01/26 02/20 03/17 04/11 05/06 05/31 06/25 07/20 08/14 09/08 10/03 10/28 11/22 12/17 硅铁：60家样本企业：库存：宁夏（周） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 01/01 01/26 02/20 03/17 04/11 05/06 05/31 06/25 07/20 08/14 09/08 10/03 10/28 11/22 ...

Core Viewpoint - The launch of casting aluminum alloy futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange marks a significant development in the industry, providing a tool for companies to hedge costs and manage risks associated with aluminum procurement and production [1][3]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The casting aluminum alloy industry chain includes scrap aluminum, casting aluminum alloys, die-cast parts, and end-use applications, with the transportation sector, particularly automotive, being the largest consumer [1]. - The carbon emissions from producing casting aluminum alloys are significantly lower, achieving only 2% of the emissions compared to the electrolytic aluminum production process, while also conserving resources such as 3.4 tons of standard coal and 22 tons of water per ton produced [1]. Group 2: Regional Significance - Chongqing plays a crucial role in the casting aluminum alloy industry due to its concentration of high-end manufacturing, particularly in the electric vehicle sector, with local automakers like Changan and Seres having substantial aluminum needs [2]. - The annual aluminum alloy demand in Chongqing has surpassed 340,000 tons, supported by the presence of large-scale casting manufacturers with an annual production capacity exceeding 700,000 tons [2]. - The region's logistics infrastructure, including warehouses like Guoyuan Port, meets the storage capacity requirements for the futures market, facilitating regional delivery and circulation [2]. Group 3: Market Development Initiatives - The Chongqing municipal government has actively supported the development of the futures market, encouraging local companies to engage with futures trading and enhancing their risk management capabilities [3]. - CITIC Futures, a national futures brokerage based in Chongqing, aims to provide comprehensive financial services to local businesses, including customized reports, risk management training, and one-stop delivery services [4]. - The company plans to leverage its expertise to enhance the competitiveness of Chongqing's casting aluminum alloy industry and contribute to the sustainable development of the regional economy [4].

投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 宏观氛围转暖 低位有所止跌 ——铁合金周报20250609 投 资 咨 询 部 ：彭博涵 联 系 方 式 ：0371-58630083 电 子 邮 箱 ：pengbh_qh@ccnew.com 执 业证书 编 号 ：F3076814 投资咨询 编 号 ：Z0016415 01 硅铁 本期观点 | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 供应：端午归来宁夏部分厂家复产，产量低位迅速回升。 需求：铁水产量见顶，成材进入淡季对合金需求转弱。 | | | | | 库存：钢厂库存回落，厂家库存止降回升。 | | 需求不及 | | | 成本：青海宁夏周度电费小降1分，成本重心继续回落。 | 短期观望或 | 预期/供 | | 硅铁 | | 反弹偏空。 | 应减产超 | | | 基差：盘面贴水幅度较大。 | | 预期 | | | 总结：上周硅铁供增需弱，受商品反弹氛围提振价格止跌。前期供应快速收缩带 | | | | | 动平衡表缺口不断扩大，近两周显性库存消化下降较快，但降库之后企业开工意 | | | | | ...

仓单 最新 日变化 周变化 出厂价折盘面 日变化 周变化 宁夏#72 5100 -30 -100 5360 主力合约 5104 -92 -194 内蒙#72 5150 -50 -150 5450 01合约 5106 -4 -96 青海#72 5150 -50 -100 5480 05合约 5122 -18 -138 陕西#72 5100 -50 -100 5400 09合约 5104 2 -68 陕西#75 5750 -50 -100 主力月基差 256 62 94 江苏#72 5280 0 -200 1-5月差 -16 14 42 天津#72 5500 0 50 5-9月差 18 -20 -70 天津#72 1055 0 0 9-1月差 -2 6 28 现货 盘面 最新 硅铁自然块 产区汇总价 硅铁合格块 贸易商价 硅铁出口价 品种 项目 铁合金早报 硅锰贸易商价 2025/6/9 供应 需求 800 1300 1800 2300 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 硅铁：72%FeSi：出口价格：天 ...

每日观点 锰硅2509： 1.基本面：原料端，锰矿价格持续下行，硅锰成本支撑走弱。供应端，硅锰厂排产波动不大，南方地区部分硅锰厂有复产 意愿。硅锰厂主动报价意愿偏弱，部分持货方报价小幅下跌。需求端，下游钢厂对硅锰采购谨慎，多等待主流钢招进场； 中性。 2.基差：现货价5500元/吨，09合约基差-38元/吨，现货贴水期货。偏空。 3.库存：全国63家独立硅锰企业样本库存186100吨；全国50家钢厂库存平均可用天数15.15天。偏多。 4.盘面：MA20向下，09合约期价收于MA20下方。偏空。 5.主力持仓：主力持仓净空，多翻空。偏空。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-06-09锰硅早报 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 6.预期：预计本周锰硅价格震荡运行；SM2509：5400-5600震荡运行。 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 锰硅周报6.3-6.6 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每周观点 本周观点： 原料端，锰矿价格持续下行，硅锰成本支撑走弱。供应端，硅锰厂排产波动不大，南方地区部分硅锰厂有复产意愿。 硅锰厂主动报价意愿偏弱，部分持货方报价小幅下跌。需求端，下游钢厂对硅锰采购谨慎，多等待主流钢招进场。 下周行情预测： 锰矿价格持续下行，硅锰成本支撑走弱，下游钢厂对硅锰采购谨慎，预计下周锰硅价格震荡为主。 2 -2000元/吨 0元/吨 2000元/吨 4000元/吨 6000元/吨 8000元/吨 10000元/吨 12000元/吨 14000元/吨 2020-01-01 2020-08-01 2021-03-01 2021-10-01 2022-05-01 2022-12-01 2023-07- ...

铁合金周报|2025-06-09 【煤炭和宏观消息加持，合金弱反弹中】 【基本面分析】 1、成本端：青海、宁夏硅石到厂价 170-230 元/吨，神府兰炭小料 570-640 元/吨暂稳， 河北石家庄 70#氧化铁皮 730-770 元/吨暂稳，关注 5 月结算电价和 6 月宁夏电价下调幅度。 2、硅铁现货：72 硅铁自然块报 5000-5200 元/吨现金含税出厂，75 硅铁 5700-5800 元/ 吨现金含税出厂，较上周跌 50-100。钢招方面，南钢 6 月招标定价 5550 承兑，福建三明 5530 半承兑半现金，较 5 月定价跌 2000-250 不等。本周宁夏和陕西均有复产，下阶段关注内蒙 大厂复产预期以及成本下移空间。 3、仓单变化：硅铁仓单 15576 张环比上个交易日减 260 张，预报 80 张环比持平，仓单 和预报合计 78280 吨环比减 1300 吨，交割库存下降中。 【技术分析】 文华商品指数收在 155.96 涨 0.51%，资金净流入 12.96 亿。黑色系不同幅度上涨，硅铁 2509 合约收在 5104 涨 0.08%，资金净流入 3593 万，日增仓 8713 手，结算价 ...

Group 1 - The silicon manganese market shows moderate performance with futures stabilizing after a short-term dip, while spot prices in both northern and southern markets range from 5450 to 5500 yuan/ton [1] - The overall operating rate of 187 independent silicon manganese enterprises is 35.03%, with a week-on-week increase of 0.26%, and the average daily output is 24,600 tons, up by 280 tons week-on-week [1] - Demand for silicon manganese from the five major materials is 125,800 tons, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 0.86% [1] Group 2 - The silicon iron market experiences a cautious sentiment despite a slight easing of pessimism, with futures hitting recent lows and showing weak fluctuations [1] - The operating rate of silicon iron enterprises is 32.78%, with a week-on-week increase of 2.33%, and the average daily output is 13,900 tons, up by 1,760 tons week-on-week [1] - Demand for silicon iron from the five major materials is 20,300 tons, down by 1.21% week-on-week, indicating cautious purchasing behavior from downstream [1] Group 3 - Inventory levels for silicon manganese and silicon iron show mixed trends, with silicon manganese inventory slightly increasing and silicon iron inventory decreasing week-on-week [1] - The overall production of silicon manganese is low due to industry profit impacts, while silicon iron production has dropped to near historical lows due to enterprise losses [1] - Price pressures for both silicon manganese and silicon iron are influenced by factors such as cost, electricity prices, and industrial policies, with a focus on monitoring manganese ore supply [1]

Group 1 - The silicon manganese market shows signs of stabilization after a short-term dip, with current prices in the northern and southern markets ranging from 5450 to 5500 yuan/ton [1] - The overall operating rate of 187 independent silicon manganese enterprises is 35.03%, with a weekly increase of 0.26%, and an average daily output of 24,600 tons, up by 280 tons week-on-week [1] - Demand for silicon manganese from five major materials is 125,800 tons, reflecting a decrease of 0.86% week-on-week, while inventory levels have slightly increased [1] Group 2 - The silicon iron market remains cautious despite a slight easing of pessimism in black commodities, with silicon iron futures hitting recent lows and showing a weak oscillating trend [1] - The operating rate of silicon iron enterprises is 32.78%, with a weekly increase of 2.33%, and an average daily output of 13,900 tons, up by 1,760 tons week-on-week [1] - Weekly demand for silicon iron from five major materials is 20,300 tons, down by 1.21% week-on-week, indicating cautious purchasing behavior from downstream [1] Group 3 - Overall, silicon manganese production is low due to industry profit impacts, while iron water production remains at a high level for the same period, with resilient demand [1] - Silicon iron production has dropped to a near-record low due to enterprise losses, while downstream inventory levels remain low, indicating a need for careful monitoring of electricity prices and industrial policies [1] - Both silicon manganese and silicon iron are expected to exhibit oscillating trends, with no operational recommendations for cross-variety and cross-period trading at this time [1]

二 〇 二 五 2025 年 6 月 8 日 锰硅：黑色板块共振，锰硅走势震荡 硅铁：成本继续下移，硅铁走势偏弱 | 李亚飞 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 | liyafei2@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 金园园（联系人） | 期货从业资格号：F03134630 | jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com | 报告导读： 【走势回顾】本周硅铁 2507 合约走势偏弱，收于 5,206 元/吨，周环比变化-92 元/吨，成交 450,871 手，持仓 89,676 手，持仓环比变化-59,303 手。本周锰硅 2509 合约价格走势小幅反弹，收于 5,538 元/吨，周环比变化 60 元/吨，成交 1,192,152 手，持仓 452,001 手，持仓环比变化-30,755 手。 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 【供应】硅铁本周产量为 9.73 万吨，产量较上周环比变化 1.24 万吨，环比变化率为 14.6%，周开工 率为 32.78%，较上周变动 2.34 个百分点。锰硅本周产量 17.19 万吨，产量较上周环比 ...