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美联储7月降息有望?ADP就业岗位2023年以来首次下滑
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-07-02 22:57
今晚公布的非农报告将受到更多关注。 美国劳动力市场可能正在发出警告信号。 尽管招聘冻结,但工资增长保持稳定。留职者的工资同比增长4.4%,而换工作者的工资平均增长 6.8%,这表明潜在的劳动力市场仍然接近充分就业。 ADP首席经济学家理查森(Nela Richardson)表示:"裁员仍然很少见,企业对雇佣的犹豫,以及不愿 更换离职员工导致了职位减少。"他补充道:"尽管如此,招聘的放缓尚未扰乱薪酬增长。然而,在今年 开局强劲之后,招聘势头正在减弱。" 市场分析认为,企业就业人数的下降表明,即使在特朗普政府暂时放宽了关税谈判期限之后,疲软的劳 动力市场也没有任何改善。公司填补的空缺职位比一年前少,在经济加速之前不太可能招募更多的人。 由于经济不确定性阻碍了招聘,6月份美国私人部门就业人数两年多来首次下降,引发了人们对经济健 康的担忧,并加大了外界对美联储降息的押注。市场的注意力将转向今晚公布的政府非农就业报告,这 可能成为本月美联储是否提前降息的关键催化剂。 数据意外下滑 美国人力调查公司ADP Research周三发布的数据显示,6月美国私营公司裁员3.3万人,这是自2023年3 月以来的首次下降,远不及市场 ...
【7月1日直播回顧】數據透視港股:股市分析與衍生品策交易策略研討會
Ge Long Hui· 2025-07-02 18:40
Group 1 - The core idea of the discussion revolves around the daily review of the Hong Kong stock market, focusing on individual stocks and the Hang Seng Index, to help investors understand market changes and trading signals [2][3] - The company emphasizes the importance of data-driven communication, providing insights into trading signals and market trends to assist investors in making informed decisions [3][4][6] - The analysis highlights a tendency among investors to prefer short-term trading strategies rather than long-term holding, which is attributed to the perceived risks associated with longer holding periods [4][5][6] Group 2 - The company utilizes a database that is updated daily to provide timely analysis of stock performance, including significant market fluctuations [7][11] - Technical analysis signals are summarized into four categories: buy, strong buy, sell, and strong sell, simplifying the communication of trading signals to investors [10][12] - The analysis of support and resistance levels is crucial for investors, especially those trading in structured products like warrants and bull-bear certificates, as it helps in assessing risk and making strategic decisions [13][14][16] Group 3 - The discussion includes specific examples of stocks such as Tencent and Alibaba, providing insights into their current trading signals and potential price movements based on technical analysis [15][16] - The company encourages investors to consider risk management when selecting products, particularly in relation to support and resistance levels, to mitigate potential losses [13][14] - The session concludes with an invitation for further questions and discussions on structured products, indicating a commitment to ongoing investor education and engagement [17][19]
浙江震元: 浙江震元股份有限公司2024年向特定对象发行股票募集说明书(修订稿)
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-07-02 16:36
Group 1 - The company plans to issue A-shares to specific investors, pending approval from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange and the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) [2][3][4] - The final issuance price will be no less than 85% of the average trading price of the company's shares over the 20 trading days prior to the pricing date [3][4][5] - The total number of shares to be issued will not exceed 25% of the company's total share capital, amounting to a maximum of 83,530,821 shares [5][6] Group 2 - The funds raised will be allocated to specific projects, including the construction of a production base for amino acids and an enhancement project for raw materials [6][7] - The company may adjust the investment priorities and amounts based on the actual net amount raised and project urgency if the net proceeds are less than planned [6][7] - The company has committed to using the raised funds in compliance with relevant regulations and will replace any pre-invested funds once the raised funds are available [6][7] Group 3 - The company operates in the pharmaceutical industry, which is subject to strict regulatory oversight from various government bodies, including the National Medical Products Administration and the National Healthcare Security Administration [19][20] - The pharmaceutical industry is characterized by significant competition and regulatory challenges, including drug approval processes and pricing regulations [19][20][21] - The company’s business encompasses pharmaceutical distribution, manufacturing, and health services, with a focus on both commercial and industrial sectors [19][20]
美私营就业两年多首降,6月ADP减3.3万,降息预期升温?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-02 16:27
Group 1 - The U.S. private sector employment market has shown its first negative growth signal in over two years, primarily concentrated in the services sector, raising concerns about the pace of labor market slowdown [1] - The ADP report indicates that private sector employment increased by only 29,000 in May, followed by a decrease of 33,000 in June, which was unexpected by economists [1] - The services sector experienced a significant job loss of 66,000 in June, particularly in professional and business services, healthcare, and education [4] Group 2 - Following the ADP data release, U.S. Treasury yields fell, stock index futures declined, and the dollar's gains narrowed, leading traders to increase bets on at least two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by the end of 2025 [2] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in July rose from 20.7% to 24.3% after the ADP data was published [2] - The average employment growth rate over the three months ending in May has slowed to 18,700, the lowest level since the onset of the pandemic [4] Group 3 - Employment numbers decreased by 24,000 in the Midwest and 20,000 in the West, while only the South saw a net increase [4] - Large enterprises with over 500 employees added 30,000 jobs, while small businesses with fewer than 20 employees saw a net loss of 29,000 jobs [4] - The proportion of consumers who believe "job opportunities are plentiful" fell to its lowest point in over four years in June [4]
鹭燕医药: 2024年年度权益分派实施公告
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-07-02 16:24
Group 1 - The company has announced its 2024 annual profit distribution plan, which involves a cash dividend of 3.5 RMB per 10 shares for all shareholders, based on a total share capital of 388,516,736 shares [1][2] - The distribution plan is consistent with the allocation scheme approved by the shareholders' meeting and will be adjusted if the total share capital changes before the implementation [1] - The record date for the distribution is set for July 9, 2025, and the ex-dividend date is July 10, 2025 [1][2] Group 2 - The distribution is applicable to all shareholders registered with the China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation Limited Shenzhen Branch as of the record date [2] - The cash dividends will be directly credited to the shareholders' accounts through their securities companies or other custodians [2] - The company assumes all legal responsibilities for any insufficient cash dividends due to a decrease in shares held by shareholders during the distribution application period [2]
一心堂: 关于使用部分暂时闲置自有资金进行现金管理的进展公告
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-07-02 16:03
045 号 一心为民 全心服务 股票代码:002727 股票简称:一心堂 公告编号:2025- 一心堂药业集团股份有限公司 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整,没有虚假记 载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 一心堂药业集团股份有限公司(以下简称"公司")于2025年5月21日召开2024年年度股东会, 审议通过《关于使用部分暂时闲置自有资金进行现金管理的议案》,同意公司及全资子公司使 用额度不超过人民币25亿元的闲置自有资金进行现金管理(包括但不限于购买一年期以内的固 定收益型或保本浮动收益型理财产品、大额存单、定期存款、通知存款、协定存款等),相关 额度在投资期限内任一时点的现金管理金额(含前述投资的收益进行再投资的相关金额)不超过 关事项。 近日,公司与广发银行股份有限公司昆明万宏支行签订了《广发银行"物华添宝"W 款 2025 年第 680 期定制版人民币结构性存款(挂钩黄金现货看涨阶梯式)(昆明分行)合同》,现将 有关情况公告如下: 一、本次进行现金管理基本情况 | 签约银行 | | | 认购金额 | | | | 产品预期收 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...
Private Payrolls Unexpectedly Came in Negative in June
ZACKS· 2025-07-02 15:41
Group 1 - The ADP private-sector payrolls for June reported a decline of -33K, marking the first negative reading since March 2023, significantly below the expected +100K and the previously revised +29K [1][3] - The decline in jobs was primarily driven by the services sector, which lost -66K jobs, including significant losses in Professional/Business Services (-56K) and Education/Healthcare (-52K) [2][3] - Large companies (more than 500 employees) saw a slight gain of +30K jobs, while small businesses (fewer than 50 employees) experienced a loss of -47K jobs [3] Group 2 - The current estimate for nonfarm payrolls in the upcoming Employment Situation report is +110K, but this may be revised downward following the negative ADP report [3] - The last negative ADP report in March 2023 occurred under different economic conditions, with the Federal Reserve having raised interest rates to over +5% and inflation being addressed [4] - The current job losses are predominantly in white-collar positions, which may be unexpected, and are not directly linked to the White House's deportation campaign [5] Group 3 - The upcoming expiration of reciprocal tariff initiatives could impact future private-sector payrolls, with potential for recovery depending on new trade deals or tariff pauses [6] - The trailing four-month average for private-sector job growth is only +51K, insufficient to cover new retirees, contrasting sharply with the previous eight-month average of +162K [7]
“小非农”爆冷转负!美国6月ADP就业人数骤减3.3万人
Ge Long Hui· 2025-07-02 14:37
周三,ADP Research公布的数据显示,美国6月ADP就业人数减少3.3万人,不仅远低于市场预期的增加9.5万人,更是录得2023年3月以来的最大降幅。前值 为增加3.7万人。 这一数据被市场广泛视为"非农就业"的先行指标,素有"小非农"之称。此次骤然转负,显示美国私营部门就业正在迅速放缓,强化了经济降温的信号。 ADP首席经济学家内拉·理查森 (Nela Richardson) 在新闻稿中表示:"尽管裁员现象仍然罕见,但企业在新增招聘方面持谨慎态度,且不愿填补离职员工空 缺,这导致了上个月的就业萎缩。不过,招聘放缓尚未影响到薪资增长。" 数据公布后,美元指数短线下跌约20点,后又拉升,现报97.064。 美股三大股指小幅低开后有所上涨,截止发稿,道指跌0.16%,标普500指数转涨0.18%,纳指小幅上涨0.61%。 | 代码 | 名称 | | 最新价 | 涨跌額 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | .DJI | 道琼斯指数 | (0) | 44421.71 | -73.23 | -0.16% | | IXIC | 纳斯达克综合指数 | | ...
爆冷!突发,利空
Zhong Guo Ji Jin Bao· 2025-07-02 14:12
Core Viewpoint - The ADP report indicates a surprising decline in private sector employment in June, marking the first negative growth since March 2023, raising concerns about a slowdown in the labor market [3][4]. Employment Data Summary - In June, U.S. private sector jobs decreased by 33,000, with the previous month's increase revised down to only 29,000 [3]. - The service sector saw a significant job loss of 66,000, particularly in professional and business services, as well as healthcare and education [6][7]. - Manufacturing, construction, and mining sectors experienced job gains, with a total increase of 32,000 in production jobs, partially offsetting the overall decline [8]. Economic Sentiment and Future Outlook - Employers are becoming increasingly cautious due to the impact of trade policies and are focusing on aligning workforce numbers with the slowing economic activity [6]. - The average job growth over the past three months has slowed to 18,700, the lowest since the early pandemic [10]. - The proportion of consumers who believe job opportunities are plentiful has dropped to a four-year low, indicating a potential shift in economic sentiment [10]. Wage Growth and Employment Trends - Wage growth has also slowed, with salaries for job switchers increasing by 6.8% year-over-year, while those remaining in their positions saw a 4.4% increase [10]. - The upcoming government non-farm payroll report is expected to show an increase of 110,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate projected to rise slightly from 4.2% to 4.3% [11].
爆冷!突发,利空!
中国基金报· 2025-07-02 13:54
【导读】 美国"小非农"数据爆冷! 中国基金报记者 泰勒 7月2日晚间 发布的"小非农"ADP爆冷, 为 2023年3月以来的首次负增长! 数据显示,6月,美国企业就业人数出现两年多以来的首次下降,反映出服务业就业岗位的减少,这可能引发市场对劳动力市场出现更明显 放缓的担忧。 根据ADP研究机构周三发布的数据,私营部门就业岗位在上个月减少了3.3万个,此前5月的增幅也被下调至仅增加2.9万个。经济学家无一 预料到会出现就业下降。 数据显示,6月份服务行业就业岗位减少了6.6万个,主要集中在专业和商业服务,以及医疗和教育领域。相比之下,制造业、建筑业和采 矿业的就业岗位有所增加。中小型企业的就业人数也出现下滑。 ADP首席经济学家内拉·理查森(Nela Richardson)在一份声明中表示:"虽然裁员依然罕见,但企业在招聘方面的谨慎态度以及不愿意补 充离职员工,导致上个月出现了岗位流失。" 在这组数据公布后,美国股指期货下跌。 ADP指出,上个月岗位流失主要集中在与专业及商业服务、医疗和教育相关的服务类岗位。其中,专业/商业服务减少了5.6万个岗位,医 疗/教育净减少5.2万个岗位。 雇主们对特朗普政府贸易政 ...