截至6月6日，市场最新融资余额为17964.09亿元，较上个交易日环比减少31.16亿元，分行业统计，申万 所属一级行业有9个行业融资余额增加，医药生物行业融资余额增加最多，较上一日增加4.19亿元；融 资余额增加居前的行业还有汽车、家用电器、美容护理等，融资余额分别增加2.41亿元、1.97亿元、 1.11亿元；融资余额减少的行业有22个，电子、基础化工、非银金融等行业融资余额减少较多，分别减 少8.29亿元、4.53亿元、3.85亿元。 以幅度进行统计，美容护理行业融资余额增幅最高，最新融资余额为59.02亿元，环比增长1.92%，其次 是家用电器、轻工制造、建筑材料行业，环比增幅分别为0.78%、0.69%、0.50%；融资余额环比降幅居 前的行业有公用事业、银行、基础化工等，最新融资余额分别有423.99亿元、530.06亿元、775.91亿 元，分别下降0.65%、0.63%、0.58%。（数据宝） 6月6日各行业融资余额环比变动 | 代码 | 最新融资余额（亿元） | 较上一日增减（亿元） | 环比增幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 医药生物 | 1267.07 ...

大消费 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 6 月 9 日 [T分析师able_A：uthor 罗鹏 ] 执业证书号：S1030523040001 电话：0755-23602217 邮箱：luopeng@csco.com.cn 研究助理：赵靖 电话：0755-23602217 邮箱：zhaojing2@csco.com.cn 公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 证券研究报告 黄金珠宝"以旧换新"政策推动消费转型 [Table_ReportType] 大消费行业周报（6 月第 1 周） [Table_Summary] 行业观点： 请务必阅读文后重要声明及免责条款 [Table_Industry] [Table_Title] | 一、 市场周度回顾 3 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 二、 行业要闻及重点公司公告 4 | | | | 2.1 4 | 行业要闻 | | | 2.2 5 | 公司公告 | | [Table_Report] [Table_BaseData] 计算机 2019 年 Q3 综合毛利率（%） 9.7 综合净利率（%） 6.9 行业 ROE（%） 25.6 行业 ...

大消费 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 6 月 9 日 [T分析师able_A：uthor 罗鹏 ] 执业证书号：S1030523040001 电话：0755-23602217 邮箱：luopeng@csco.com.cn 研究助理：赵靖 电话：0755-23602217 邮箱：zhaojing2@csco.com.cn 公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 证券研究报告 黄金珠宝"以旧换新"政策推动消费转型 [Table_ReportType] 大消费行业周报（6 月第 1 周） [Table_Summary] 行业观点： 请务必阅读文后重要声明及免责条款 [Table_Industry] [Table_Title] | 一、 市场周度回顾 3 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 二、 行业要闻及重点公司公告 4 | | | | 2.1 4 | 行业要闻 | | | 2.2 5 | 公司公告 | | [Table_Report] [Table_BaseData] 计算机 2019 年 Q3 综合毛利率（%） 9.7 综合净利率（%） 6.9 行业 ROE（%） 25.6 行业 ...

Group 1 - A-shares experienced fluctuations and upward trends in early June, with a focus on fundamental investment logic from June to August [1] - Institutions recommend focusing on traditional capacity reduction, the rise of new consumption, and sectors with high industry prosperity, including automotive, non-ferrous metals, retail, beauty care, and chemical pharmaceuticals [1][6] - Short-term fluctuations in Hong Kong stocks are expected, but they possess recovery potential in the medium to long term, making them worthy of investor attention [10] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for seven consecutive months, with a total of 7.383 million ounces as of the end of May, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 60,000 ounces [2] - Foreign institutions such as Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs express optimism about the asset allocation value in China, citing favorable economic growth expectations and relatively low asset valuations [4] Group 3 - Citic Securities emphasizes the importance of fundamental investment logic from June to August, highlighting the supply chain for computing power (AI servers, optical modules, switches, etc.) as a key focus area [5] - Dongwu Securities suggests that short-term thematic rotation may continue, with attention on new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, controllable nuclear fusion, AI edge devices, and commercial aerospace [7] - Huatai-PB Fund anticipates an increase in focus on consumption and cyclical sectors, driven by improved Q1 A-share company performance and potential recovery in foreign trade and economic expectations [8] - Huitianfu Fund indicates that the timing for technology growth investments is approaching, with the market sentiment having been released after prior adjustments, particularly in the AI industry chain [9]

中信证券：规避宏观扰动，回归产业趋势 在三季度末到四季度可能到来的指数牛市的关键入局点前，还将经历3—4个月的过渡阶段。从宏观面来看，内 需和价格信号仍偏弱，还需要看到更多反内卷和提振内需的实际举措；海外不确定性依然较大，后续美国减税 法案落地可能成为海外新一轮市场动荡的诱因。 从市场层面来看，A股小微盘和题材普遍在高位，在经过4—5月的极致演绎后，可能会出现波动。从应对思路 来看，抵御宏观扰动依赖AI这样的高景气度产业趋势，近期北美AI应用端在发生新的积极变化，中国市场不 久也会跟上。跨市场的均衡配置是另一条应对思路，港股的流动性还在持续改善，如果随海外市场出现波动是 较好的增仓机会。 国泰海通：港股是本轮牛市主战场 今年港股明显跑赢A股，背后反映宏观偏弱背景下港股稀缺性资产更具吸引力，类似2012—2014年移动互联浪 潮下港股比A股率先崛起。互联网、新消费、创新药、红利等板块的稀缺资产在港股更集中，与当前AI应用、 新消费等产业趋势相关度更高，即港股资产的稀缺性所在。随着外部环境对风险偏好的扰动减缓，来自基本面 和资金面的修复力量望推动港股进一步向上。 中期来看，政策发力驱动基本面修复，叠加资金面持续改 ...

因子拥挤度观察：小市值因子表现较好。 小市值因子拥挤度 1.05 ，低估值因子拥挤度 0.06 ，高盈利因 子拥挤度 -0.18 ，高盈利增长因子拥挤度 -0.23 。 行业拥挤度：机械设备、综合、商贸零售、环保和美容护理的行业拥挤度相对较高。 美容护理和银行的行 业拥挤度上升幅度相对较大。 报告导读： 从技术面来看， Wind 全 A 于 6 月 4 日突破 SAR 点位，发出做多信号；均 线强弱指数与顶部仍有一定的距离，证明指数仍有上行空间。因此，我们认为，市场下周 或将延续震荡上行态势。 下周市场观点：市场下周或将延续震荡上行态势。 从量化指标上看，基于沪深 300 指数的流动性冲击指 标周五为 0.30 ，高于前一周（ 0.13 ），意味着当前市场的流动性高于过去一年平均水平 0.30 倍标准 差。上证 50ETF 期权成交量的 PUT-CALL 比率震荡下降，周五为 0.85 ，低于前一周（ 1.15 ），投资 者对上证 50ETF 短期走势谨慎程度下降。上证综指和 Wind 全 A 五日平均换手率分别为 0.82% 和 1.40% ，处于 2005 年以来的 56.33% 和 68.58% 分位点 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Annualized Discount Model for CSI 500 Futures - **Model Construction Idea**: The model identifies optimal entry points for building positions based on historical performance when the annualized discount of CSI 500 futures exceeds a certain threshold, indicating market pessimism. [1][11] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model uses the annualized discount rate of the next-month contract of CSI 500 index futures as the key metric. - Historical data from 2017 onwards is analyzed to determine the relationship between the discount rate and subsequent returns. - Key findings: - When the annualized discount exceeds 15%, holding the index for more than 12 trading days results in average cumulative returns trending upward. - Holding for over 33 trading days yields a probability of positive cumulative returns exceeding 50%. - Holding for over 50 trading days increases the probability of positive returns to approximately 60%. - Formula: $ \text{Annualized Discount} = \frac{\text{Spot Price} - \text{Futures Price}}{\text{Futures Price}} \times \frac{365}{\text{Days to Maturity}} $ - Spot Price: Current index level - Futures Price: Price of the futures contract - Days to Maturity: Remaining days until the futures contract expires [11] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures market pessimism and identifies potential rebound opportunities, making it a useful tool for timing market entry. [11] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Annualized Discount Model for CSI 500 Futures - **Key Metrics**: - Holding for 12 trading days: Average cumulative returns trend upward. - Holding for 33 trading days: Positive return probability > 50%. - Holding for 50 trading days: Positive return probability ~60%. [1][11] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Proprietary Active Trader Activity Indicator - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the activity level of speculative funds (e.g., proprietary traders) to gauge market sentiment and risk appetite. [3][13] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Data Source: Derived from "Dragon and Tiger List" (龙虎榜) data. - The indicator tracks the marginal changes in active trader participation over time. - Observations: - From late April, the indicator showed a consistent decline, reflecting reduced risk appetite and cautious market sentiment. - Recently, the indicator has shown marginal improvement, suggesting a potential rebound in risk appetite. [3][13] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor provides timely insights into the behavior of speculative funds, which can serve as a leading indicator for shifts in market sentiment. [3][13] 2. Factor Name: BARRA Style Factors - **Factor Construction Idea**: These factors assess the performance of various style attributes (e.g., momentum, volatility, size) to understand market preferences. [23][24] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Data Source: BARRA factor model. - Key Observations for the Week: - Fundamental factors (e.g., profitability) showed significant positive excess returns. - Stocks with high short-term momentum and high volatility outperformed. - Size-related factors (e.g., market capitalization) continued to underperform, indicating a preference for mid- to small-cap stocks. - Formula: Factor returns are calculated as the weighted average of stock returns within each style category. [23][24] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factors effectively capture shifts in market preferences, providing actionable insights for portfolio adjustments. [23][24] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Proprietary Active Trader Activity Indicator - **Key Metrics**: - Indicator showed consistent decline from late April, reflecting reduced risk appetite. - Recent marginal improvement suggests a potential rebound in speculative activity. [3][13] 2. BARRA Style Factors - **Key Metrics**: - Momentum: +0.2% weekly return. - Volatility: +0.2% weekly return. - Profitability: +0.3% weekly return. - Size: -0.5% weekly return. - Nonlinear Size: -0.3% weekly return. [23][24]

6月6日，继北证50指数，北交所官方发布北证专精特新指数。对此，北研君认为主要把握三个重点 （1）了解新指数的编制情况；（2）专精特新指数最新成分股和北证50指数有哪些异同；（3）复盘北 证50指数，新指数的出现会对市场造成哪些影响，对交易有什么实质性指导意义。三点中尤其是第三 点，最为重要，下面北研君为大家逐一解答： 1、北证专精特新指数的编制情况？ 对比北证50指数和北证专精特新指数，大部分内容是相同的，主要区别体现在（1）选样方面北证专精 特新指数选样条件为样本空间内的证券按照过去六个月的日均成交金额由高到低排名， 剔除排名后30% 的证券 ，北证50则是剔除排名后20%的证券；（2）选样方面专精特新指数新增限制条件为 必须在专精 特新"小巨人"企业中进行筛选 ，即选取其中专精特新"小巨人"作为待选样本，这条规则使的一些非专精 特新企业无法纳入该指数，北证50指数则无此约束，目前北交所已上市的266家公司中国家级专精特 新"小巨人"为141家，如果算上省级的专精特新数量为192家，占比达72.18%。（3）样本股调整方面北 证专精特新指数为 每半年调整一次，每次调整数量一般不超过20% ，而北证50指数 ...

Group 1 - The liquidity of the Hong Kong stock market continues to improve, presenting good opportunities for increasing positions during market fluctuations [1] - A-shares have shown strong performance, with the median increase in A-shares being the highest since 2022, particularly favoring smaller market capitalization stocks [2] - Consumer sectors are expected to remain a key driver of economic recovery, with domestic policies focusing on expanding domestic demand [3] Group 2 - Investment strategies should focus on traditional capacity reduction, the rise of new consumption, and sectors with high industry prosperity [2] - Defensive sectors such as banking are recommended for short-term stability, given the uncertain environment surrounding tariff negotiations [4] - The overall market index is expected to maintain a volatile trend, with external risks having potentially peaked [3]

2025 年 06 月 08 日 北证专精特新（899601）：小而精， 特色更鲜明的优质投资标的 ——北交所发布北证专精特新指数点评 证券分析师 刘靖 A0230512070005 liujing@swsresearch.com 研究支持 吕靖华 A0230124070002 lvjh@swsresearch.com 联系人 吕靖华 (8621)23297818× lvjh@swsresearch.com 策 略 研 究 证 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 A 股 策 资料来源：Wind，申万宏源研究；截至 2025/6/6 资料来源：Wind，申万宏源研究；截至 2025/6/6 略 券 研 究 报 告 ⚫ 事件：2025 年 6 月 6 日，北交所公告将于 2025 年 6 月 30 日正式发布北证专精特新指 数，经流动性筛选后，北证专精特新指数将从符合条件的北交所专精特新"小巨人"上市 公司中选取市值最大的 50 只作为指数样本，为市场提供多维度投资标的和业绩基准。 ⚫ 北证专精特新聚焦小巨人、特色更鲜明，编制规则采用半年度调仓、调整数量不超 ...