港股中资券商股盘初快速回调，申万宏源(06806.HK)跌超3%，华泰证券(06886.HK)跌超2%，弘业期货 (03678.HK)涨幅收窄至不足3%。 ...

Group 1 - Nvidia's market capitalization has surpassed $3.77 trillion, setting a new record, while Tesla's stock has dropped over 3% and Chinese concept stocks are generally weak, indicating volatility in foreign capital sentiment [1][3] - The Shanghai Composite Index saw a significant increase of 1.04%, closing above 3455 points with a trading volume of 1.6 trillion yuan, the largest in the past three months, suggesting strong domestic market activity [1][3] - Northbound capital has been net selling for three consecutive days, with a notable 1 billion yuan sell-off in Kweichow Moutai, reflecting foreign investors' hesitance in high-valuation sectors [3][4] Group 2 - Domestic institutions have actively invested, with a net inflow of 2.3 billion yuan, particularly in the media, electronics, and computer sectors, which attracted over 5 billion yuan, indicating a shift towards growth stocks [3][4] - The technical indicators for the Shanghai Composite Index show bullish signals, with a breakout above the 3430-point resistance level and a significant increase in MACD and KDJ indicators [3] - The financial sector, particularly brokerage stocks, experienced a collective surge, influenced by the recent approval of virtual asset trading licenses in Hong Kong [4] Group 3 - Recent policies have been favorable, with the central bank conducting a reverse repurchase operation of 203.5 billion yuan, ensuring market liquidity, and six departments issuing consumption stimulus policies benefiting sectors like home appliances and automobiles [4] - In the solid-state battery sector, significant orders from a subsidiary of Meilian New Materials have positively impacted leading companies like Xiangtan Electric and Nord [4] - The AI sector is witnessing a shift, as OpenAI halts API services to China, allowing domestic companies like Baidu and Alibaba to fill the gap, presenting opportunities for local replacements [4] Group 4 - The market's performance hinges on whether the financial sector can support a rally in technology stocks, with a focus on the strength of brokerage stocks and the return of capital to the semiconductor sector [5] - Key investment themes include financial innovation, technology growth in AI hardware and semiconductors, and beneficiaries of policy support in consumer electronics and military industries [5] - The A-share market is entering a bull market phase driven by both policy and liquidity, with a recommendation to maintain a position limit of 60% and not exceed 20% in individual stocks [5]

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲6号万通中心D座20层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/06/26 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际油价窄幅震荡，美油涨 0.9%，报 64.94 美元/桶。美国上周 EIA 原油库 存超预期减少 583.6 万桶。光大期货指出，油价短期或维持区间震荡，需关注 欧佩克+产量政策变化。 2. 国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，COMEX 黄金期货涨 0.37%报 3346.4 美元/盎司， 白银涨 1.35%。美联储拟放宽银行杠杆率要求，同时重申通胀风险，对贵金属 形成双向影响。 3. 伦敦基本金属多数上涨，LME 期锡涨 2.5%，期锌、期镍涨 1%，期铜涨 0.6%。 高盛预计，由于关税导致美国以外市场铜库存减少，以及中国经济活动有韧性， 铜价将在 8 月升至 2025 年高点。 4. 世界钢铁协会发布数据显示，5 月份，全球 70 个纳入统计国家/地区的粗钢 产量为 1.588 亿吨，同比下降 3.8%。中国粗钢产量为 8655 万吨，同比下降 6.9%； 印度粗钢产量为 1350 万吨，同比提高 9.7%。 重要资讯 【宏观资讯】 1 ...

Group 1 - The current market is assumed to be breaking out of a consolidation phase, indicating the start of a major upward trend, with sentiment indicators returning from a low to a warmer zone [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index has already achieved a breakout and is in an attacking posture [1] - The Shenzhen Composite Index has also achieved a breakout and is in an attacking posture [2] Group 2 - The Sci-Tech Innovation Board Index has just reached the upper boundary of its consolidation structure, indicating an attacking posture [3] - However, a divergence in momentum has been observed on a 5-minute scale, suggesting that short-term gains may be limited [4] Group 3 - The overall market situation aligns with previous analyses, indicating that the pullback will not be too deep and that the market is at the end of the first phase of a bull market, which typically lasts 8 to 10 months [6] - It is noted that before entering a major upward phase, the sentiment indicators may drop into a cold zone but not necessarily to freezing levels, as seen in previous bull markets in 2014 and 2019 [6][7] Group 4 - A common characteristic before a major upward trend is a narrow, rhythmic, and self-disciplined fluctuation or consolidation structure, typically requiring at least three touches (3T) [8] - Currently, the market is only at 2T in its consolidation structure, suggesting a potential short-term pullback for confirmation before a breakout [8] Group 5 - There is caution against excessive excitement in the media regarding the market, as recent gains in brokerage stocks are limited to a few mid-cap firms, indicating a possible high-level distribution rather than a broad-based rally [8] - The real surge is observed in financial software stocks, driven by policy announcements, which typically attract speculative trading [8] - The proportion of stocks with gains exceeding 5% is not high, indicating a long-tail effect where only a small number of stocks are performing exceptionally well [8]

【头条要闻】 突破100万亿！A股总市值刷新历史纪录，外资机构维持超配建议，下半年的"投资剧本"来了 国家大基金，旨在通过资金投入，支持国内集成电路产业的研发、生产和应用，促进产业链上下游的协 同发展，提升中国在全球半导体产业中的竞争力。2024年5月，国家集成电路产业投资基金三期股份有 本周以来，A股市场连续3个交易日放量反弹，上证指数、深证成指、创业板指分别累计上涨2.86%、 3.89%、5.90%。资金面上，资金情绪持续回暖，沪深300主力资金已连续2个交易日净流入。分析人士 认为，市场情绪逐渐回暖，投资者风险偏好提升，资金流入股市的意愿增强，推动了市场上涨。下半年 估值逻辑整体有利，不确定性趋于下降，A股市场更上一层楼可期。 事关稳定币 "央行的央行"最新警告 香港金管局也公开发文"降温" 稳定币热度不断攀升之际，有着"央行的央行"之称的国际清算银行（BIS）"泼来一盆冷水"。"稳定币作 为可靠货币形式存在不足，如果缺乏监管，会对金融稳定和货币主权构成风险。"国际清算银行在年度 报告提前章节中发出警告。无独有偶，香港金管局总裁余伟文日前也公开发文，给稳定币"降温"，强调 应客观冷静地看待稳定币。 特 ...

Group 1: Market Performance - A-shares experienced a significant rebound on June 25, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high for the year, and the ChiNext Index rising over 3% [1][3] - The total market capitalization of A-shares reached 99.93 trillion yuan, marking a historical peak [1] - Over 3,900 stocks in the A-share market rose, with a trading volume of 1.64 trillion yuan on the same day [1][3] Group 2: Institutional Research and Preferences - In June, 836 listed companies received institutional research, with nearly 70% of these companies showing positive returns [2] - The electronics sector was the most favored by institutions, with 94 companies receiving research, particularly in PCB, AI applications, and semiconductor chips [2] - The pharmaceutical and biotech sectors also attracted significant institutional interest, especially in the CXO (contract research organization) segment [2] Group 3: Foreign Investment Sentiment - Global market risk appetite has improved, leading to a surge in Chinese assets, with foreign institutions expressing optimism about the Chinese stock market [3] - Key factors for this optimism include resilient macroeconomic conditions, improving corporate profits, and supportive incremental policies [3] - As of June 25, 21 companies had provided earnings forecasts for the first half of 2025, with 15 expecting positive net profit growth [3] Group 4: Cross-Border Business Development - Domestic securities firms are establishing cross-border business collaboration platforms and forming specialized teams for Hong Kong stock market expansion [4] - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange has introduced measures to facilitate A-share companies listing in Hong Kong, leading to a quicker review process [4] Group 5: Virtual Asset Trading - Guotai Junan International received approval to upgrade its trading license to include virtual asset trading, resulting in a significant stock price increase [5] - The approval has led to a surge in the Hong Kong Chinese brokerage index, with other firms also actively applying for similar licenses [5] Group 6: Short Drama Industry Growth - The short drama industry has seen explosive growth, with the interactive game index for short dramas rising 5.72% this year, outperforming the broader market [8] - Several listed companies in this sector have experienced stock price increases exceeding 40% [8] - Major internet companies are intensifying competition in the short drama space, with notable initiatives from Tencent, Xiaohongshu, and Bilibili [8]

Group 1 - The A-share market has seen a significant influx of capital, with major indices rising over 1%, and the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high for the year at 3455.97 points [1][2] - The multi-financial sector, including brokerage and banking stocks, has performed exceptionally well, with several stocks hitting their daily limit up [1][2] - Military equipment stocks have gained traction, driven by geopolitical factors and recent military successes, with multiple stocks experiencing substantial increases [2][3] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs maintains a bullish outlook on Chinese assets, projecting a target of 4600 points for the CSI 300 index, indicating a potential upside of approximately 10% [4] - The market sentiment has improved significantly, with trading volumes increasing, providing support for a potential rebound [4][5] - The recent policies aimed at stabilizing and activating capital markets are expected to benefit the securities sector, suggesting a positive trend for the industry [5]

1 、国务院总理李强出席 2025 年夏季达沃斯论坛开幕式并致辞。 李强表示，当前国际经贸格局正在发生深刻变化。我们应当坚定不移 拥抱普惠包容的经济全球化，维护自由贸易和多边主义，促进世界经济稳定发展。中国将继续积极融入全球市场，为世界经济所需贡献 中国经济所能。 2 、 周三 A 股再度强势上扬，上证指数午后涨超 1% 创年内新高，创业板指大涨超 3% ； 港股亦走强，恒生指数、恒生科技指数均涨 超 1% 。国泰君安国际获香港虚拟资产交易牌照，股价当日暴涨近 200% ，带动"牛市旗手"券商股整体大幅走高。中国银行、建设银 行、交通银行、工商银行均刷新历史新高，银行板块成为今年上半年表现最好的行业板块之一。 3 、 美国总统特朗普表示，美方将于下周与伊朗就一项潜在的核协议展开会谈，但他多次强调自己并不认为这类协议"有多必要"。 他 补充说，美方此次将提出与此前在中东局势升级前与伊朗谈判时相同的要求。 特朗普表示，自己"非常确信"以色列与伊朗之间的军事冲 突已经结束。 以色列和伊朗之间的冲突可能再次爆发，也许很快 。 他不认为伊朗会重新进行核计划 。 特朗普表示，不会放弃对伊朗 施压，也不会接管石油。 1 、 ...

Core Viewpoint - Guotai Junan International has become the first Chinese brokerage in Hong Kong to provide comprehensive virtual asset trading services after receiving approval from the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission, leading to a significant surge in its stock price by nearly 200% [2][3]. Group 1: Company Developments - Guotai Junan International has been proactive in the virtual asset sector, launching a virtual asset spot ETF-based structured product in 2024 and obtaining permission to act as an agent for virtual asset trading platforms [4]. - The company accelerated its business entry in 2025, receiving confirmation to distribute tokenized securities and initiating digital bond issuance [4]. - The recent approval for virtual asset trading services enhances the company's service ecosystem in this emerging market [4]. Group 2: Market Context - The virtual asset trading license framework in Hong Kong is well-established, with various licenses corresponding to specific service areas and regulatory requirements [4]. - Guotai Junan International's early entry into the virtual asset trading service sector positions it ahead of other Chinese brokerages, with expectations that more brokerages with international subsidiaries will follow suit [4][7]. - As of now, there are 11 licensed virtual asset trading platforms in Hong Kong, with several traditional brokerages, including Futu Securities and Tiger Brokers, also entering the virtual asset market [7]. Group 3: Industry Trends - The trend towards virtual asset trading services among brokerages is expected to continue, driven by the growing demand for diverse financial products and services [6][7]. - Traditional financial institutions are encouraged to explore multiple dimensions of the virtual asset industry chain, including brokerage services, equity investments, trading and investment services, and asset management [7]. - Brokerages can leverage partnerships with licensed virtual asset exchanges to provide trading channels and services, integrating traditional securities accounts with virtual asset trading [7].

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a strong rally on June 25, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high for the year, closing up 1.04% at 3455.97 points, while the Shenzhen Component rose 1.72% to 10393.72 points, and the ChiNext Index surged 3.11% to 2128.39 points [1] - The total market turnover was 16,394 billion yuan, an increase of 1,915 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with over 3,900 stocks rising [1] Brokerage Sector Performance - The brokerage sector continued its upward momentum, with stocks like Guosen Securities and Xiangcai Securities hitting consecutive limits, and Dongfang Caifu rising over 10% [2] - In Hong Kong, brokerage stocks saw even stronger gains, with Guotai Junan International surging over 100% and closing up 198.39% [2] Catalysts for Brokerage Sector - The surge in brokerage stocks is attributed to three main factors: 1. Chinese brokerages entering the virtual asset market, with Guotai Junan International receiving approval to offer virtual asset trading services, becoming the first Chinese brokerage in Hong Kong to do so [3] 2. The legislative process for stablecoins in Hong Kong is progressing, with the Stablecoin Ordinance set to take effect on August 1, allowing the Hong Kong Monetary Authority to start accepting license applications [3] 3. A strong financial policy "combination punch" aimed at boosting consumption, with 19 key measures proposed to enhance financial services for consumption [5] Banking Sector Highlights - The banking sector remains strong, with several banks, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and Agricultural Bank of China, reaching new historical highs [6] - Insurance capital has been actively increasing stakes in bank stocks, with Ping An Life increasing its holdings in China Merchants Bank H-shares [6] - The characteristics of bank stocks, such as low volatility and high dividends, continue to attract insurance capital [6] Insurance Sector Performance - The insurance sector also showed strength, with major A-share insurance companies like New China Life and China Pacific Insurance all seeing gains [6] Chip and Military Industry Performance - The military sector saw significant gains, with stocks like Beifang Changlong and Tian Sheng New Materials hitting the daily limit of 20% [8] - The semiconductor sector also experienced a rebound, with stocks like Taiji Co. and Naxin Micro showing strong performance [8] - Market analysts predict a positive outlook for memory chip manufacturers in the second quarter of 2025, with expected revenue growth [8]