公 司 报 告 房地产 2025年08月31日 新城控股(601155.SH) 商业运营稳健，融资成本下行 推荐 ( 维持) 股价:14.83元 证券分析师 杨侃 投资咨询资格编号 S1060514080002 BQV514 事项： 公司公布2025年半年报，上半年实现营业收入221亿元，同比下降34.8%，归 母净利润8.9亿元，同比下降32.1%。 行情走势图 相关研究报告 【平安证券】新城控股（601155.SH）*季报点评*利 润呈现增长，商业运行稳健*推荐20250430 平安观点： 公 司 半 年 报 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 YANGKAN034@pingan.com.cn 郑茜文 投资咨询资格编号 S1060520090003 ZHENGXIWEN239@pingan.com.cn | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 119,174 | 88,999 | 61,943 | 44,103 | 32,813 | | YOY(%) | 3. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report The report focuses on understanding the current low inflation and providing an outlook for inflation and the bond market in the second half of the year. It points out that the low inflation is mainly due to a negative output gap and high real interest rates, which suppress aggregate demand. Under the "anti - involution" policy, prices are expected to rise moderately at a low level in the second half of the year, with CPI and PPI showing different trends. In the bond market, the "weak recovery, low inflation" environment provides support, but there are also upward pressure on interest rates and uncertainties [1][2][3][5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 How to Understand the Current Low Inflation? - **Negative Output Gap**: China's GDP growth rate has a gap with the potential growth rate, the youth unemployment rate is high, industrial capacity utilization is low, and CPI and PPI are running at a low level, indicating that aggregate demand is lower than aggregate supply [2][18]. - **High Real Interest Rates**: Although the central bank has been lowering the nominal interest rate, the real interest rate has risen due to extremely low inflation and GDP deflator, which inhibits aggregate demand and forms a "passive tightening" effect [3][22]. 3.2 Current Characteristics of the Inflation Market - **Widening CPI - PPI Scissors**: In July 2025, the CPI - PPI scissors reached 3.6 percentage points, reflecting problems such as poor price transmission and unbalanced economic recovery, and squeezing the profits of downstream manufacturing enterprises [4][26]. - **Core CPI Reaching a New High**: In July 2025, the core CPI reached a new high since March 2024, becoming the main support for CPI, which shows positive changes in price operation and the effectiveness of policies [4]. - **"Anti - Involution" Not Driving PPI Upward**: "Anti - involution" policies have promoted the rise of commodity futures prices, but PPI has not increased. This may be due to the difference in pricing logic between futures prices and PPI, and the problem of insufficient terminal demand [4][34]. 3.3 Outlook for Inflation and the Bond Market under "Anti - Involution" - **Inflation Outlook**: In the second half of the year, CPI is expected to rise moderately, with estimated year - on - year growth rates of 0.1% and 0.5% in the third and fourth quarters respectively, and around 0% for the whole year. PPI is expected to maintain a trend of volatile recovery with narrowing year - on - year decline, with estimated year - on - year growth rates of - 2.7% and - 1.5% in the third and fourth quarters respectively, and around - 2% for the whole year, with a low possibility of turning positive within the year [5][41][51]. - **Bond Market Outlook**: In the "weak recovery, low inflation" environment, the bond market is supported by the fundamental logic and the central bank's monetary easing. However, the warming of the equity market and the "anti - involution" and "expanding domestic demand" policies may bring upward pressure on the interest rate center. The impact of the "anti - involution" policy on the bond market depends on whether the price increase expectation can be supported by real demand [6][57].

Core Viewpoint - The article draws a parallel between human hypothermia and economic stagnation, suggesting that just as individuals can misinterpret their physical sensations in extreme cold, markets can also misinterpret economic signals, leading to false perceptions of economic health [1][2]. Economic Data vs. Perception - Economic data often lags behind real-time events, leading to discrepancies between actual economic conditions and public perception [2]. - The case of Japan's "lost 30 years" illustrates how prolonged economic stagnation can occur despite seemingly positive data, as evidenced by Japan's CPI growth from 1991 to 2021 being only 7.5% [2][5]. Japan's Economic Stagnation - Japan's per capita GDP in 1991 was $28,666, peaking at $38,467 in 1994, but by 2024, it is projected to be only $32,420, indicating a significant decline when adjusted for inflation [5][7]. - The Nikkei 225 index peaked at 38,900 points in 1989 but fell to around 8,700 points by 2012, reflecting a long-term economic decline [7][10]. Policy Misjudgments - Japanese authorities underestimated the impact of the real estate bubble burst, leading to ineffective policy responses that failed to stimulate recovery [10][11]. - The Bank of Japan's delayed shift from tight to loose monetary policy contributed to prolonged deflation, with interest rates remaining high until 1995 [11]. Ineffective Fiscal Policies - Japan's fiscal policies oscillated between expansion and contraction, lacking coherence and effectiveness, which hindered economic recovery [11][12]. - Public works spending increased significantly in the 1990s, but much of it was directed towards low-impact projects in declining regions, resulting in wasted resources [12][14]. Lessons from Japan's Experience - Japan's experience highlights the importance of targeted investment in sectors that can drive growth, rather than indiscriminate infrastructure spending [23][27]. - The need for a coherent industrial policy to foster new industries is critical, as Japan has struggled to innovate in emerging sectors like technology and renewable energy [17][23]. Conclusion - The article emphasizes that while increasing public investment can stabilize growth, it must be strategically directed to avoid economic imbalances and ensure effective use of resources [27][28].

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - In August, the Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.4%, indicating an improvement in economic conditions compared to the previous month [2] - The production index reached 50.8%, up by 0.3 percentage points, marking four consecutive months above the critical point, suggesting accelerated manufacturing production [2] - The new orders index increased to 49.5%, reflecting a slight rise in demand, with notable performance in the pharmaceutical and electronics sectors [2] - The purchasing activities have accelerated, with the purchasing volume index rising to 50.4% [2] - The prices of major raw materials and factory prices increased, with the raw material purchase price index at 53.3% and factory price index at 49.1%, indicating an overall improvement in market prices [2] Group 2: Enterprise Size and Sector Performance - Large enterprises reported a PMI of 50.8%, up by 0.5 percentage points, indicating sustained expansion [3] - Medium-sized enterprises saw a decline in PMI to 48.9%, reflecting a downturn in economic conditions [3] - Small enterprises experienced a slight improvement with PMI at 46.6%, up by 0.2 percentage points [3] - High-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing sectors showed strong performance with PMIs of 51.9% and 50.5%, respectively [3] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index rose to 50.3%, indicating continued expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [5] - The service sector's business activity index reached 50.5%, marking a significant recovery and the highest point of the year [5] - Certain industries, such as capital market services and transportation, reported business activity indices above 60.0%, indicating robust growth [5] - The construction sector's business activity index fell to 49.1% due to adverse weather conditions, reflecting a slowdown [5] Group 4: Comprehensive PMI Overview - The Comprehensive PMI Output Index increased to 50.5%, indicating an overall acceleration in production and business activities across sectors [6] - The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index were reported at 50.8% and 50.3%, respectively, contributing to the overall expansion [6]

Group 1 - New regulations for personal pensions will be implemented starting September 1, introducing three new scenarios for pension withdrawals related to medical expenses, unemployment insurance, and minimum living security [3] - The Ministry of Finance and other regulatory bodies have issued a policy for personal consumption loans, allowing eligible loans used for specific consumption to enjoy fiscal subsidies from September 1, 2025, to August 31, 2026 [2] - The real estate industry will be subject to new anti-money laundering management measures, requiring compliance with anti-money laundering obligations and cooperation with regulatory investigations starting September 1 [4] Group 2 - The Supreme People's Court has clarified that any agreement between employers and employees to not pay social insurance is invalid, effective September 1, supporting employees' claims for economic compensation if employers fail to pay [5] - A new regulation on the identification of AI-generated content will take effect on September 1, focusing on the responsibilities of service providers to label such content and prevent misinformation [6] - The State Council has announced that from the fall semester of 2025, public kindergartens will waive childcare fees for children in their final year of preschool education [7] Group 3 - Jilin Province will implement a tax refund policy for outbound travelers starting September 1, allowing for VAT refunds on purchases made in designated stores [8] - A new national standard for electric bicycles will be enforced from September 1, enhancing safety measures and reducing fire hazards by modifying nearly 200 key technical indicators [9]

Core Viewpoint - The overall economic climate in China continues to show signs of expansion, with key indices indicating a recovery in both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors in August 2025 [1][11]. Manufacturing Sector Summary - The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 49.4%, indicating a slight improvement in economic conditions compared to the previous month [3]. - Production Index reached 50.8%, up by 0.3 percentage points, marking the fourth consecutive month above the critical point, suggesting accelerated manufacturing production [5]. - New Orders Index increased to 49.5%, reflecting a minor rise of 0.1 percentage points, with notable performance in the pharmaceutical and computer communication sectors [5]. - The Purchasing Volume Index climbed to 50.4%, indicating increased procurement activities among enterprises [5]. - Price indices for raw materials and factory output prices rose to 53.3% and 49.1%, respectively, showing a continuous improvement in market price levels [5]. - Large enterprises reported a PMI of 50.8%, up by 0.5 percentage points, while medium and small enterprises showed mixed results [6]. - High-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing sectors maintained expansion with PMIs of 51.9% and 50.5%, respectively [6]. - The production and business activity expectation index rose to 53.7%, indicating increased confidence among manufacturing firms regarding future market conditions [6]. Non-Manufacturing Sector Summary - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased to 50.3%, reflecting ongoing expansion in the sector [8]. - The Services Business Activity Index reached 50.5%, marking a significant recovery and the highest point of the year, with strong performance in capital market services and transportation sectors [8]. - The Construction Business Activity Index fell to 49.1%, influenced by adverse weather conditions, indicating a slowdown in construction activities [9]. - The business activity expectation index for the service sector rose to 57.0%, suggesting optimism among service industry firms regarding future market developments [8]. Comprehensive PMI Summary - The Comprehensive PMI Output Index rose to 50.5%, indicating an overall acceleration in production and business activities across sectors [11].

Overall Analysis - In Q2 2025, the overall A-share market experienced a decline in profitability, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1.41% for net profit attributable to shareholders, down from 2.57% in H1 2025 [11][12] - The revenue growth for the entire A-share market in H1 2025 was 0.21%, with Q2 showing a slight improvement to 0.49% [12][19] - The return on equity (ROE) for the non-financial and non-oil sectors stabilized at 6.26% in Q2 2025, indicating a need for further observation regarding upward elasticity [28][31] Industry Analysis - The industries with the highest year-on-year net profit growth in Q2 2025 included comprehensive services (+239.7%), steel (+82.2%), electronics (+27.6%), and electric equipment (+24.6%) [3][24] - The real estate, electric equipment, and defense industries showed improvements in net profit growth compared to Q1 2025 [3][24] - The TMT sector (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) demonstrated strong performance, with electronics and computing sectors showing significant improvements [3][24] Cash Flow Analysis - Operating cash flow showed a year-on-year improvement in Q2 2025, although overall cash flow levels remained low compared to the past decade [12][19] - The financing cash flow indicated a reduction in corporate debt repayment pressure, while investment cash flow remained stable [12][19] Dividend Distribution - As of August 30, 2025, 813 listed companies had disclosed and implemented dividends, with a total dividend payout of 642.8 billion yuan, reflecting an increase from 2024 [4][25]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - In August, China's manufacturing sector showed slight improvement in economic sentiment, while non-manufacturing activities accelerated expansion, indicating a general trend of economic growth [1][2]. Manufacturing Sector - The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 49.4%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight improvement in manufacturing sentiment [3][5]. - The production index and new orders index both showed recovery, with the production index at 50.8%, up 0.3 percentage points, suggesting accelerated manufacturing production [5][7]. - The new orders index improved to 49.5%, reflecting a slight enhancement in market demand [5][6]. - Large enterprises reported a PMI of 50.8%, while medium and small enterprises had PMIs of 48.9% and 46.6%, respectively, indicating varying levels of economic activity across different enterprise sizes [5]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased to 50.3%, up 0.2 percentage points, indicating continued expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [1][18]. - The service sector's business activity index reached 50.5%, marking a year-to-date high, with significant growth in sectors like capital market services and transportation [2][13]. - The construction sector's business activity index fell to 49.1%, indicating a decline in activity [13][16]. Price Indices - The main raw material purchase price index rose to 53.3%, and the factory price index increased to 49.1%, both showing a continuous upward trend for three months [1][2]. - The input price index for non-manufacturing remained stable at 50.3%, indicating a general increase in operational costs [16]. Future Expectations - The production and business activity expectation index for manufacturing was reported at 53.7%, suggesting increased confidence among manufacturers regarding future market conditions [2][17]. - The business activity expectation index for non-manufacturing reached 56.2%, indicating optimism about market prospects [17][18].

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI remains below the growth line for five consecutive months, indicating ongoing economic pressure, although there are signs of improvement due to policy measures and reduced extreme weather impacts [1][4]. Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for August is reported at 49.4%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a modest recovery in manufacturing sentiment [1]. - The new orders index within the manufacturing PMI is at 49.5%, up 0.1 percentage points, while the production index is at 50.8%, reflecting a stable expansion in production activities [4]. - The purchasing price index for raw materials is at 53.3%, up 1.8 percentage points, indicating a continued rise in raw material prices, while the factory price index is at 49.1%, up 0.8 percentage points, marking the highest level this year [4][5]. - Large enterprises show stable expansion with a PMI of 50.8%, while small enterprises have a PMI of 46.6%, indicating a recovery trend [5]. Economic Outlook - The production and business activity expectation index for August is at 53.7%, up 1.1 percentage points, suggesting improved market confidence and expectations for future economic performance [6]. - Positive factors are accumulating, leading to expectations of continued economic recovery in September and the fourth quarter, with stable demand and production activities in the manufacturing sector [6]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50.3%, up 0.2 percentage points, indicating ongoing expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [9]. - The service sector's business activity index is at 50.5%, reaching a yearly high, while certain industries like retail and real estate remain below the critical point, indicating weaker performance [9][10]. - The construction sector's business activity index is at 49.1%, down 1.5 percentage points, reflecting a slowdown in production due to adverse weather conditions [10].

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - In August, the Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.4%, indicating an improvement in economic conditions compared to the previous month [2] - The production index reached 50.8%, up 0.3 percentage points, marking four consecutive months above the critical point, suggesting accelerated manufacturing production [2] - The new orders index increased to 49.5%, reflecting a slight rise in demand [2] - Large enterprises showed a PMI of 50.8%, up 0.5 percentage points, indicating sustained expansion, while medium and small enterprises experienced declines [3] - High-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing sectors maintained expansion with PMIs of 51.9% and 50.5%, respectively [3] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing PMI Insights - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index reached 50.3%, up 0.2 percentage points, continuing its expansion [4] - The service sector's business activity index rose to 50.5%, the highest point of the year, with significant growth in capital market services and transportation sectors [4] - The construction sector's business activity index fell to 49.1%, down 1.5 percentage points, due to adverse weather conditions [4] Group 3: Composite PMI Insights - The Composite PMI Output Index stood at 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points, indicating an overall acceleration in production and business activities [5][6]