智通财经APP获悉，海丰国际(01308)再涨超4%，高见29.48港元创历史新高。截至发稿，涨4.34%，报 29.34港元，成交额1.65亿港元。 消息面上，海丰国际近日公布上半年业绩，收入约为16.645亿美元，同比增长28.0%；毛利约为6.694亿 美元，同比增长66.3%，毛利率由31.0%升至40.2%；利润为6.334亿美元，同比增长79.5%；每股基本盈 利0.24美元。收入增长主要归因于集装箱运量增加7.3%以及平均运费上涨22.8%。 华泰证券研报指出，公司盈利按年大幅增长主因关税扰动，东南亚集装箱运价按年大幅上升推动。该行 持续看好产业重塑带动亚洲区域内货量增长；同时，中小型集装箱船舶供给趋紧，亚洲集运市场兼具韧 性和增长性。该行将公司目标价上调11%至31港元，维持"买入"评级。 ...

Core Insights - The Invesco Great Wall Hong Kong Stock Connect Dividend Low Volatility ETF (159569) closed down 0.66% on August 19, with a trading volume of 33.93 million yuan [1] - The fund was established on August 14, 2024, with an annual management fee of 0.50% and a custody fee of 0.08% [1] - As of August 18, 2024, the fund's shares totaled 226 million, with a total size of 305 million yuan, reflecting a 99.87% increase in shares and a 135.58% increase in size since December 31, 2024 [1] Fund Performance - The current fund managers are Gong Lili and Wang Yang, with Gong Lili managing since August 29, 2024, achieving a return of 37.43%, while Wang Yang, managing since August 13, 2025, has a return of -1.91% [2] - The latest report indicates that the fund's top holdings include Orient Overseas International, COSCO Shipping Holdings, Yancoal Australia, Yanzhou Coal Mining, and others, with specific weightings [2] Top Holdings - Orient Overseas International: 9.65% holding, 133,500 shares valued at 16.24 million yuan [3] - COSCO Shipping Holdings: 7.14% holding, 966,500 shares valued at 12.02 million yuan [3] - Yancoal Australia: 5.43% holding, 338,900 shares valued at 9.13 million yuan [3] - Yanzhou Coal Mining: 4.73% holding, 1,118,000 shares valued at 7.96 million yuan [3] - Other significant holdings include Haifeng International, China Hongqiao Group, Sinopec, CNOOC, Minsheng Bank, and China Everbright Bank, each with varying percentages and values [3]

Core Points - The new management measures for the personal income tax preferential policy for high-end and scarce talents in Hainan Free Trade Port have been released, optimizing the previous regulations from 2022 [1][4] Group 1: Policy Optimization - The method for calculating "cumulative residence of 183 days" has been optimized to include reasonable offshore business trips, vacations, and training days in the residence days count, while maintaining a minimum requirement of 90 days of actual residence in Hainan [3] - The specific industry coverage has been refined from "aviation, shipping, marine oil and gas exploration" to "aerospace, shipping, marine oil and gas exploration" to better support the development needs of Hainan's aerospace industry [3] Group 2: Risk Control and Supervision - The new measures require that the enterprises or units employing the talents benefiting from the preferential policy must operate substantively in Hainan, ensuring that business development aligns with the benefits received [3] - A comprehensive supervision mechanism has been established, mandating that the offshore business trips, vacations, and training of high-end talents be reported and disclosed by their respective enterprises or units, with relevant departments conducting key inspections [3] Group 3: Tax Policy Details - The personal income tax preferential policy of 15% is a core policy of Hainan Free Trade Port, which has been implemented and optimized since June 2020, benefiting a cumulative total of 39,000 individuals by the end of December 2024 [4] - The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation will continue to implement the personal income tax policy for high-end and scarce talents in Hainan Free Trade Port, exempting the portion of actual tax burden exceeding 15% until December 31, 2027 [4]

Core Points - The new policy optimizes the calculation method for the requirement of "cumulative residence of 183 days," allowing reasonable off-island business trips, vacations, and training days to be included in the residence days count, while maintaining a minimum requirement of 90 days actual residence in Hainan Free Trade Port [1] - The specific industry coverage has been refined to better support the development of key industries in Hainan, changing the scope from "aviation, shipping, marine oil and gas exploration" to "aerospace, shipping, marine oil and gas exploration" [1] - The new policy emphasizes risk prevention and full-process supervision, requiring that the enterprises or units employing the talent must operate substantively in Hainan, with a matching business development and benefit situation [2] Policy Details - The personal income tax preferential policy of 15% is a core policy of Hainan Free Trade Port, which has been implemented and optimized since June 2020, benefiting a total of 39,000 individuals by the end of December 2024 [2] - The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation will extend the personal income tax exemption for high-end and urgently needed talents in Hainan Free Trade Port until December 31, 2027, for the portion of actual tax burden exceeding 15% [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No clear industry investment rating is provided in the reports. Core Viewpoints - Due to geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [3] - Given the short - term market fluctuations, it is not advisable to increase positions, and stop - loss should be set [1] - The market may experience wide - range fluctuations when the basis converges, and attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [3] Summary by Related Content Shipping Freight Index - On August 18, the NCFI (composite index) was 1052.5 points, down 0.1% from the previous period; the SCFIS (European route) was 2180.17 points, down 2.5%; the NCFI (European route) was 1188.7 points, down 5.5%; the SCFIS (US West route) was 1106.29 points, up 2.2%; the NCFI (US West route) was 1042.91 points, down 5.9% [1] - On August 15, the SCFI was 1460.19 points, down 29.49 points from the previous period; the CCFI (composite index) was 1193.34 points, down 0.6%; the SCFI European route price was 1820 USD/TEU, down 7.2%; the CCFI (European route) was 1790.47 points, down 0.5%; the SCFI US West route was 1759 USD/FEU, down 3.5%; the CCFI (US West route) was 981.1 points, down 5.9% [1] Economic Data of Different Regions - In the Eurozone in July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.8, higher than the expected 49.7; the services PMI was 51.2, higher than the expected 50.7; the composite PMI was 51, higher than the expected 50.8; the SENTIX investor confidence index rose to 4.5, the highest since April 2022 [2] - In the US in July, the S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 49.5 (expected 52.7); the services PMI was 55.2 (expected 53); the Markit composite PMI was 54.6, the highest since December 2024 [2] - China's manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [2] Futures Market - On August 18, the closing price of the main contract 2510 was 1373.1, with a gain of 0.01%, the trading volume was 28,100 lots, and the open interest was 53,200 lots, a decrease of 1677 lots from the previous day [3] - The SCFIS European route index declined again, and some liner companies continued to lower spot freight rates. The market is in a wait - and - see mood, and the futures market may fluctuate widely when the basis converges [3] Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: Risk - takers can try to go long lightly around 1300 of the 2510 contract, pay attention to the subsequent market trend, and set stop - loss [4] - Arbitrage strategy: Due to the volatile international situation, it is recommended to wait and see or participate lightly [4] - Long - term strategy: It is advisable to take profits when the contracts rise, and then judge the subsequent direction after the price stabilizes [4] Policy Adjustments - The daily price limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18% [4] - The margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4] - The daily opening position limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The shipping rate center is continuously declining, and attention should be paid to Maersk's quotes in the first week of September [1][5]. - The 8 - month contract has seen the top of the shipping rate, and the continuous downward revision of the shipping rate brings uncertainty to the estimated delivery settlement price. The estimated final delivery settlement price is around 2100 points [4]. - The 10 - month contract is mainly for short allocation, and the focus is on the downward slope of the shipping rate. It is relatively safe to short - allocate, but the key lies in the downward space. In the context of a large discount, it is relatively safe to short the EC2510 contract on rallies, but do not over - short [5][6]. - The seasonal pattern of peak and off - peak seasons still exists for the 12 - month contract, and the risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will reopen. If it reopens, the seasonal pattern may be challenged [6]. - The main contract oscillates weakly, and it is advisable to short the 10 - month contract on rallies [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Prices - As of August 18, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts is 78,292.00 lots, and the daily trading volume is 37,185.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts are 1537.90, 1331.00, 1494.90, 2088.20, 1373.10, and 1789.70 respectively [7]. 2. Spot Prices - On August 15, 2025, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1820.00 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) price was 1759.00 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - East Coast of the United States) price was 2719.00 US dollars/FEU. On August 18, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 2180.17 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) was 1106.29 points [7]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In August 2025, there were many additional ships. Maersk added two additional ships in WEEK32 and WEEK35, and the OA alliance also added two additional ships. HPL announced two additional ships for October. The weekly average capacity from China to European base ports in August was 283,100 TEU, in September it was 315,800 TEU, and in October it was 281,300 TEU. There were 3 TBNs and 2 blank sailings in September (both blank sailings were from the PA alliance), and 10 TBNs and 1 blank sailing in October [3]. - As of August 15, 2025, 167 container ships with a total capacity of 1.318 million TEU have been delivered in 2025. Among them, 51 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU and a total capacity of 768,000 TEU, and 8 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU and a total capacity of 176,880 TEU have been delivered [8]. 4. Supply Chain - There is information about the global container ship capacity congestion ratio, congestion capacity, ship speeds of different sizes, and the number of container ships passing through the Suez Canal, Cape of Good Hope, and Panama Canal, but no specific data is summarized in the text [56][60][71]. 5. Demand and European Economy - There is information about port container throughput, EU 27 industrial production index, EU 27 imports from China, euro - zone consumer confidence index, EU 27 retail sales year - on - year, China's export volume to the EU, and Asia - North America and Asia - Europe trade volumes, but no specific data is summarized in the text [75][76][80].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Due to geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [3] Core Viewpoints - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff fluctuations, the game is challenging, and it is advisable to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines [3] - With the SCFIS European route index declining again and some shipping companies reducing spot freight rates, the market is cautious, and the futures market may fluctuate widely when the basis converges. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [3] Summary by Related Content Shipping Market - On August 15 - 18, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1052.5 points, down 0.1% from the previous period; the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2180.17 points, down 2.5%; the NCFI for the European route was 1188.7 points, down 5.5%; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1106.29 points, up 2.2%; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1042.91 points, down 5.9% [1] - On August 15, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1460.19 points, down 29.49 points from the previous period; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1193.34 points, down 0.6%; the SCFI for the European route was 1820 USD/TEU, down 7.2%; the CCFI for the European route was 1790.47 points, down 0.5%; the SCFI for the US - West route was 1759 USD/FEU, down 3.5%; the CCFI for the US - West route was 981.1 points, down 5.9% [1] Economic Data - In July, the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI was 49.8, higher than the expected 49.7 and the previous value of 49.5; the service PMI was 51.2, exceeding the expected 50.7 and the previous value of 50.5; the composite PMI was 51, higher than the expected 50.8 and the previous value of 50.6. The SENTIX investor confidence index jumped to 4.5, the highest since April 2022 [2] - In July, the US manufacturing PMI was 49.5, lower than the expected 52.7 and the previous value of 52.9; the service PMI was 55.2, higher than the expected 53 and the previous value of 52.9; the composite PMI was 54.6, the highest since December 2024, better than the expected 52.8 and the previous value of 52.9 [2] - In July, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [2] Futures Market - On August 18, the main contract 2510 closed at 1373.1, with a gain of 0.01%, a trading volume of 28,100 lots, and an open interest of 53,200 lots, a decrease of 1677 lots from the previous day [3] Investment Strategies - Short - term strategy: For risk - takers, they can try to go long lightly around 1300 for the 2510 contract. Follow - up market trends should be monitored, and holding losing positions is not recommended. Stop - loss should be set [4] - Arbitrage strategy: Given the volatile international situation, it is advisable to wait and see or participate with a light position [4] - Long - term strategy: Profits should be taken when the contracts rise, and after waiting for the price to stabilize after a pull - back, the subsequent direction can be judged [4] Policy Adjustments - The daily price limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18% [4] - The margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4] - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - On August 18, 2025, the total market capitalization of A-shares exceeded 100 trillion yuan for the first time, driven by top - level policies and financial policies, with significant inflow of incremental funds and strong economic resilience [1]. - In 2025, domestic liquidity remains loose, in a policy window period. There may be more incremental policies in the second half of the year, and external risks are gradually easing. The stock market is in a resonance period of "policy bottom + capital bottom + valuation bottom", but sector rotation is accelerating and structural differentiation exists [2][11]. - Precious metals may show an oscillating trend under the warming of interest - rate cut expectations, with long - term drivers still providing support for gold [3][19]. - The trend of crude oil needs to pay attention to the OPEC production increase situation, and the unemployment rate in the US may rise in August [4][13]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs a. Key Varieties - **Stock Index**: The US three major indexes fluctuated slightly. The previous trading day saw an increase in the stock index, with the communication sector leading the rise and the real - estate sector leading the fall. The market turnover was 2.81 trillion yuan. The margin trading balance increased by 7.542 billion yuan on August 15. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are more offensive, while the SSE 50 and CSI 300 are more defensive [2][11]. - **Precious Metals**: Last week, unexpected US inflation data pressured gold and silver. Although there are factors supporting the price, the current high price makes gold hesitant to rise, and gold and silver may oscillate [3][19]. - **Crude Oil**: SC night trading rose 0.7%. The US - Russia talks over the weekend had no clear conclusion. The unemployment rate in the US may rise to 4.3% in August, and attention should be paid to OPEC production increase [4][13]. b. Main News of the Day - **International News**: US President Trump met with Ukrainian President Zelensky at the White House, and a trilateral meeting among the US, Russia, and Ukraine may be held. Trump also said he would not rule out sending US troops to participate in peace - keeping missions in Ukraine [5]. - **Domestic News**: Premier Li Qiang emphasized enhancing the effectiveness of macro - policies, stabilizing market expectations, stimulating consumption potential, expanding effective investment, and consolidating the real - estate market [6]. - **Industry News**: The National Medical Insurance Work Symposium announced nine key tasks, including starting to formulate the DRG 3.0 grouping plan, improving the maternity insurance system, and exploring national unified follow - up procurement after the expiration of the centralized procurement agreement [7]. c. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial**: - **Stock Index**: Similar to the key varieties part, the market is in a favorable period, but sector rotation and differentiation need attention [2][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds continued to fall. The yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond rose to 1.778%. The bond market may continue to be under pressure, and the price difference between new and old bonds and long - and short - term bonds may widen [12]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: As mentioned before, pay attention to OPEC production increase and the US unemployment rate [4][13]. - **Methanol**: Methanol night trading fell 1.04%. The overall domestic methanol plant operating rate decreased slightly, and the coastal inventory continued to accumulate. It is short - term bullish [14][15]. - **Rubber**: The price support mainly comes from the supply side. The demand side is weak, and the price may oscillate and fall [16]. - **Polyolefins**: The polyolefin futures were weak. The market is still mainly driven by supply and demand, and the inventory digestion is slow. Pay attention to the autumn restocking market and cost changes [17]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Both glass and soda ash futures are in the process of inventory digestion. The prices have stopped falling, and attention should be paid to the inventory digestion speed [18]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: As described above, affected by inflation data and other factors, it shows an oscillating trend [3][19]. - **Copper**: The copper price may fluctuate within a range due to the balance of multiple factors, and attention should be paid to US tariffs and other factors [20][21]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price may fluctuate widely in the short term, affected by factors such as US tariffs and supply - demand [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply is expected to increase slightly in August, demand is also growing, and inventory is in a complex state. There is a risk of correction after the previous rise, and short - selling should be cautious [23]. - **Black Metals**: - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore is supported. The global iron ore shipment has decreased recently, and the inventory is being depleted. It is expected to rise in the second half of the year, and the market is expected to be oscillating and bullish [24]. - **Steel**: The supply - side pressure of steel is gradually emerging, but the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The market is expected to be oscillating and bullish [25]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The main contracts of coking coal and coke oscillated narrowly. The market is under pressure, and the multi - empty game is intensifying [26][27]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Protein Meal**: The US Department of Agriculture adjusted the soybean production forecast, and the soybean futures inventory is tightening. The price of the domestic protein meal has strong support [28]. - **Oils and Fats**: The MPOB report has a neutral - to - bullish impact on the market. Affected by news from Indonesia, the short - term trend of oils and fats is expected to be bullish and oscillating [29]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market is expected to be oscillating and bearish, while the domestic sugar market is supported by high sales - to - production ratio and low inventory, and is expected to be oscillating [30]. - **Cotton**: The ICE US cotton price rose. The domestic cotton market supply is tight, and the demand is in the off - season. The short - term trend may be oscillating and bullish, but the upside space is limited [31]. - **Shipping Index**: - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC oscillated slightly. The SCFIS European line price decreased. The market is concerned about the off - season freight rate decline rate and the support of deep discounts [32][33].

Group 1: General Information - Report title: "集运指数日报" [1] - Date: August 19, 2025 [2] - Research team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core View - The spot freight rates have entered a downward channel, and the SCFIS has continued to decline this week. Considering the significant impact on foreign trade and the high supply of shipping capacity, the freight rates may be weaker in the off - season. The current main 10 - contract has a deep discount, and the market may engage in a game regarding the decline range and rate. It is recommended to short the 10 - contract on rallies [8]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot freight rates are in a downward trend. This week, the SCFIS dropped to 2180.17 points. The e - commerce platform quotes show that the August freight rates have been further reduced. The demand is unlikely to improve significantly, and the shipping capacity supply is at a relatively high level in the off - season. The main 10 - contract has a deep discount, and it is advisable to short the 10 - contract on rallies [8]. 2. Industry News - From August 11 to 15, the China export container shipping market continued to adjust, with most routes' freight rates falling. China's industrial added - value in July increased by 5.7% year - on - year. On August 15, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index dropped by 2.0%. In the European route, Germany's ZEW economic sentiment index in August dropped to 34.7, and the eurozone economy also faces challenges. The freight rate from Shanghai Port to European basic ports dropped by 7.2%. In the Mediterranean route, the freight rate dropped by 1.7%. In the North American route, the US PPI in July increased by 3.3% year - on - year, and the customs tariff revenue reached $28 billion, a 273% increase year - on - year. The freight rates from Shanghai Port to the US West and East basic ports dropped by 3.5% and 2.6% respectively. The threat of the Houthi armed forces to global shipping has escalated, and the international shipping safety situation has deteriorated. Israel's attacks on Yemen's ports have further intensified the conflict [9][10]. 3. Data Overview 1. Spot Freight Rates for Container Shipping - The SCFIS for the European route (basic ports) on August 18 was 2180.17 points, a 2.5% drop from August 11. The SCFIS for the US West route (basic ports) was 1106.29 points, a 2.2% increase from August 11 [12]. 2. Futures Quotes of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The trading data of container shipping European line futures on August 18 are as follows: for EC2508, the closing price was 2088.2, with a 0.30% increase; for EC2510, the closing price was 1373.1, with a 0.01% increase; for EC2512, the closing price was 1789.7, with a 2.30% increase; for EC2602, the closing price was 1537.9, with a 0.54% increase; for EC2604, the closing price was 1331.0, with a 0.27% decrease; for EC2606, the closing price was 1494.9, with a 0.55% increase [6]. 3. Shipping - Related Data Charts - The report provides charts of the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index, container shipping European line futures, European container ship capacity, global container ship orders, and Shanghai - Europe freight rates [13][17][18][21]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a ten - year high, with the market being hot and retail investors accelerating their entry. It is expected to continue the process of bubble - formation in the short term, but pressure will emerge after the sentiment reaches its peak [2][18]. - The conflict between Russia and Ukraine is difficult to resolve in the short term, so the US dollar will remain volatile. Gold prices are under pressure due to the marginal easing of geopolitical risks [11][14]. - The price of thermal coal is expected to weaken seasonally as the weather cools in mid - to late August. The price of copper is likely to continue its high - level oscillation pattern [3]. - The prices of various commodities and financial products are affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and policy expectations, and their trends are complex and changeable. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Germany's Chancellor Merz said the tri - party meeting exceeded expectations, and Trump and Putin agreed that Putin and Zelensky would meet in two weeks. Gold prices are under pressure due to the marginal easing of geopolitical risks. The market is concerned about Fed Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium. It is recommended to pay attention to the callback risk of short - term gold prices [11]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump and Zelensky hope to reach a consensus through tri - party talks, but the differences between Russia and Ukraine are large, so the short - term conflict is difficult to resolve, and the US dollar will remain volatile [14]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Both Russia and the US support direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, but the structural differences between the two sides on territorial issues are difficult to resolve, and the negotiation signal is more significant than the actual impact. It is necessary to pay attention to the callback risk if Powell's speech at the global central bank symposium is hawkish [16]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The State Council will take measures to consolidate the stabilization of the real estate market. The Shanghai Composite Index reached a ten - year high, and the market is hot. It is recommended to allocate various stock indices evenly [17][18][19]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 2665 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net investment of 1545 billion yuan. The bond market is expected to remain weak in the short term, and it is recommended to take a bearish approach and be cautious when betting on rebounds [20][21][22]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills increased slightly. Brazil's soybean exports in the first two weeks of August increased year - on - year. The good - rate of US soybeans was the same as the previous week and higher than market expectations. It is recommended to maintain a view of slightly bullish oscillation and pay attention to the Pro Farmer Midwest field inspection [23][24][25]. 2.2 Black Metals (Thermal Coal) - From January to July, national railways transported 11.96 billion tons of coal. The price of thermal coal continued to rise this week but is expected to enter a seasonal decline as the weather cools. The impact of over - production inspections on the operating rate is small, and the operating rate of coal mines decreased slightly [26][27][28]. 2.3 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Fenix's Beebyn - W11 iron ore completed its first shipment. The price of iron ore is oscillating weakly, and it is expected to be weak in the short term due to factors such as the seasonal accumulation of finished product inventory and the decline of surrounding varieties [29]. 2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - India imposed safeguard measures on flat steel products, and Vietnam imposed anti - dumping duties on carbon and alloy steel coated coils. China's steel exports increased in July. Steel prices are expected to continue to decline, and it is necessary to pay attention to volatility risks [30][31][33]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The Philippines obtained a 2026 fiscal - year sugar export quota to the US. South Africa's sugarcane production is expected to increase by more than 7% in 2025. China's sugar imports in July were at a record high for the same period. The price of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to remain oscillating, and it is recommended to wait for opportunities to buy on dips for the January contract [35][36][37]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The theoretical profits of corn starch enterprises in different regions were negative on August 18. The spread between CS09 and C09 weakened again. The supply - demand situation of starch is still weak, and the inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to pay attention to the regional spread between North China and Northeast China [39]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The import volume of major feed grains in China increased in July. Corn futures prices continued to decline after the contract change. It is recommended to hold short positions in the November and January contracts and pay attention to weather conditions. There may be opportunities for 11 - 3 reverse arbitrage [40]. 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Alumina) - Some high - energy - consuming industries in the northern region received notices of production restrictions for the military parade. Only one alumina enterprise in Henan reported potential production reduction. The supply - demand of alumina is in an oversupply trend, and the futures price is expected to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to wait and see [41][42][43]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The social inventory of lead ingots decreased. Anhui's environmental protection situation has no new progress, and the supply of refined lead is still under pressure. The import of lead needs continuous attention. The start - up rate of lead - acid battery factories increased, but the peak - season demand may be falsified. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [45][46][47]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The [LME0 - 3 zinc] was at a discount on August 15. Penoles' zinc production declined in the second quarter. The external market has high structural risks, and the domestic fundamentals are weakening. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading, pay attention to medium - term positive arbitrage opportunities, and maintain a positive arbitrage idea before overseas inventories bottom out [48][49]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Inner Mongolia completed the first settlement of new energy marketization. The spot price of polysilicon changed little, and the inventory increased. The production of polysilicon is expected to increase in August, and the terminal demand is weakening. It is recommended to use a callback - bullish strategy for single - side trading and pay attention to 11 - 12 reverse arbitrage opportunities at a spread of about - 2000 yuan/ton [50][52][54]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Hoshine's coal - electricity - silicon integration project phase III had an environmental assessment public notice. The supply of industrial silicon may increase marginally in August, but the demand from polysilicon may also increase, and the inventory may decrease. It is recommended to buy on dips in the short term, with the risk being the resumption of production by large factories [55][56]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - LME nickel inventory decreased on August 18. The macro - environment has cooled slightly, and the supply - demand of nickel is in a double - weak pattern. It is recommended to pay attention to short - term band opportunities and medium - term short - selling opportunities at high prices [57][58]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Sichuan Energy Power's lithium mine is in the production - ramping stage, and Australia's Covalent's lithium hydroxide plant started production. The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate may turn to inventory reduction in the third quarter, and the price is expected to be strong in the short term. It is recommended to hold long positions and look for opportunities to buy on dips [59][60][61]. 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Chile's Codelco applied to restart part of the El Teniente copper mine. Speculative funds increased their bullish bets on COMEX copper for the first time in four weeks. The short - term macro - factors support copper prices, but the weight of commodities in multi - asset allocation may be adjusted down. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and pay attention to internal - external reverse arbitrage strategies [63][64][65]. 2.16 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The congestion at Indian ports continues, and the congestion at the Panama Canal has eased. The price of LPG arriving in the Far East still has support, while the CP is expected to be weak in the short term [66][67][68]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The US and Russia support direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, and oil prices rose slightly. The market is still waiting and seeing, and oil prices lack directional drivers in the short term. It is recommended to maintain an oscillating view and wait for new drivers [69][70]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The inventory of asphalt refineries increased, while the social inventory decreased. The fundamental improvement of asphalt is limited, and the futures price is expected to be in a dilemma in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [71][72]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotes of bottle - chip factories changed little. The price of bottle - chip futures rose. The industry's production reduction has an effect, and the processing fee has slightly recovered. It is necessary to pay attention to the pressure brought by the resumption of production and new installations from late August to September [73][74][75]. 2.20 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong rose on August 18. The supply increased slightly, and the demand was good. The spot price of caustic soda has bottomed out, and the futures price is expected to oscillate [76][77]. 2.21 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The import pulp spot market was mainly stable. The futures price of pulp oscillated weakly. The overall sentiment of commodities has cooled, and the pulp market is expected to oscillate in the short term [78][79]. 2.22 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The price of PVC powder in China decreased. The futures price oscillated after a decline. India's anti - dumping ruling may reduce China's PVC exports, and the short - term futures price is expected to be weak [80]. 2.23 Energy Chemicals (PX) - The price of PX rose. The domestic PX supply is expected to increase marginally, and the profit is compressed. The single - side price of PX mainly follows the oscillation of crude oil. It is recommended to adjust with the cost of oil prices and try to go long lightly on dips [81][82]. 2.24 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The spot price of PTA rose, and the basis was stable. The demand at the weaving end rebounded slightly, and the polyester load increased marginally. The PTA processing fee may have a small repair space. It is recommended to follow the cost - end oscillation and try to go long lightly on dips [83][84][85]. 2.25 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The price of soda ash in the Shahe area oscillated and adjusted. The supply of soda ash increased, and the demand was average. The futures price is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to manage positions well [86]. 2.26 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in the Shahe market changed slightly. The futures price of glass decreased, and the market sentiment was weak. It is recommended to operate cautiously on the single - side and focus on arbitrage operations, such as the strategy of going long on glass and short on soda ash when the spread widens [87]. 2.27 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of styrene in East China ports increased. The supply of pure benzene is expected to decline slightly in the short term, and the supply - demand of styrene will gradually balance in September but may accumulate inventory in the long term. The price of styrene is expected to oscillate, and it is necessary to pay attention to the cost - end changes caused by oil - price fluctuations [88][89]. 2.28 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - India's NFL issued a urea import tender. The urea futures price oscillated under pressure, and the spot price fell significantly. The demand is weak, and the futures price is affected by potential internal and external policy expectations. It is recommended to pay attention to the potential changes in the export end [90]. 2.29 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The container throughput of Yangshan Port in July reached a record high. The SCFIS (European line) index decreased. The supply pressure in September has improved, but the demand is weakening, and the freight rate will continue to decline. It is recommended to hold short positions in the October contract and pay attention to the empty - voyage situation during the National Day [91][92].