| '/ ' V & SDIC FUTURES | 操作评级 | 2025年07月04日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 | ★☆☆ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | ★☆☆ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | な女女 | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ★☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★☆☆ | | | 籃硅 | ★☆☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★☆★ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面冲高回落。 本周螺纹表需有所回升，产量延续上升态势，库存继续缓慢下降，热卷需求温和回落，产量维持高位，库 在继续小幅累积。铁水产量有所回落，整体维持相对高位，负反馈担忧缓解，关注淡季需求承接能力。从下游行业看，基建回 暖缺乏持续性，地产销售低位徘徊，投资、新开工等指标继续大幅下滑，制造业整体 ...

Core Viewpoint - The performance forecast for the first half of 2025 by Zhuhai Group indicates a significant increase in net profit, driven by rising precious metal prices and improved operational efficiency [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance - Zhuhai Group expects a net profit of 560 million to 650 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 50.97% to 75.23% [1]. - The net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses is projected to grow by 80.97% to 109.55% year-on-year [1]. - The company attributes its performance growth to the increase in precious metal prices and a recovery in zinc smelting processing fees, alongside enhanced operational efficiency through refined management practices [1]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The lead and zinc business of Zhuhai Group is currently in a recovery phase, with an expected increase in processing fees and improved supply-demand dynamics for zinc concentrate [2]. - The average processing fee for domestic zinc concentrate in the first quarter of 2025 was 4,463 yuan per ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 937 yuan per ton [2]. - The prices of gold and silver are expected to continue rising, supported by global geopolitical tensions and central bank purchasing trends, with gold prices increasing nearly 30% this year following a 27% rise last year [2][3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Institutions remain optimistic about the upward trend in precious metal prices, which is expected to support the performance of related companies [3]. - Recent dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials regarding potential interest rate cuts are anticipated to bolster gold prices [3]. - Silver, with its dual industrial and financial attributes, is expected to see increased demand, particularly from the photovoltaic sector, leading to a favorable supply-demand balance [3].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.07.04」 沪锡市场周报 宏观利好需求淡季 预计锡价宽幅调整 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 业务咨询 研究员： 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 来源：瑞达期货研究院 3 本周期货价格震荡 现货升水下调 图1、锡期货价格走势 吨，较6月27日下跌5美元/吨，跌幅0.01%。 25000 27000 29000 31000 33000 35000 37000 39000 200000 220000 240000 260000 280000 300000 320000 美 元 / 吨 元 / 吨 锡期货价格 期货收盘价(连续) :锡 期货收盘价(电子盘):LME3个月锡 来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院 图2、锡价基差走势 截至2025年7月4日，沪锡收盘价为266990元/吨，较6月27日下跌1560元/吨，跌幅0.58%；截至2025年7月3日，伦锡收盘价为33805美元/ 截至2025年7月4日，沪锡基差为400元/吨，较上周-200元/吨。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Longyang Electronics is currently engaged in product validation and testing of its HVLP5 grade copper foil with customers, focusing on high-end market segments [1] Company Summary - Longyang Electronics (301389.SZ) is not competing in the HVLP3 grade copper foil market and below, as its production process does not have a cost advantage in this segment [1] - The company has a competitive edge in producing ultra-thin and ultra-flat copper foil, which is why it has chosen to enter the market starting with HVLP5 grade products [1] Industry Summary - The primary competitors in the HVLP5 copper foil market are mainly Japanese companies, indicating a competitive landscape dominated by established players [1]

| *业期现目报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年7月4日 | | | | 林嘉施 | Z0020770 | | 价格及基差 | | | | | | | 现值 | | 前值 | 日 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#电解订 | 122550 | 122050 | 500 | 0.41% | 元/吨 | | 1#等川嶺 | 123750 | 123300 | 450 | 0.36% | 元/吨 | | 1#金川镍升贴水 | 2300 | 2500 | -200 | -8.00% | 元/吨 | | 1#进口镇 | 121850 | 121200 | 650 | 0.54% | 元/吨 | | 1#进口镍升贴水 | 400 | 400 | 0 | - | 元/吨 | | LME 0-3 | -186 | -194 | 8 | -4.30% | 美元/吨 | | 期货进口盈亏 | -2288 | -2419 | J31 | -5.42% | 元/吨 | | 沪伦比值 | 7 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Zhuyou Group, anticipates a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, projecting a net profit attributable to shareholders of 560 million to 650 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 189 million to 279 million yuan, or 50.97% to 75.23% [1] Financial Projections - The expected net profit attributable to shareholders, excluding non-recurring gains and losses, is projected to be between 570 million and 660 million yuan, which indicates an increase of 255 million to 345 million yuan compared to the same period last year, translating to a year-on-year growth of 80.97% to 109.55% [1]

8）下游，部分情钢杆企业7月团成品库存富企而存在减产降库计划，中国精钢杆（再生钢杆）产能开工率较上周下降（升高），精钢杆企业原料（或品）库存量较上周减少（增加）, 再生钢杆企业原料（成品）库存量较上周增加（减少）」 中国铜电线电缆产能开工率较上周下降，中国钢电线电缆企业原料（或品）库存量技上周减少（减少），中国钢波包线接单量 （产能开工率）较上周威少（下降），中国波包线企业原料（成品）库存天数较上周持平（持平），出口震求受限致企业订单下滑使中国黄钢棒产能开工率较上周下降，中国黄钢棒企 亚虎刹《成品》库存天数较上周减少（减少〉，中国钢管产能开工率较上周下降，中国钢管企业原料（成品）库存天数转上周减少〈增加〉，中美互征夫税缓和印传统消费效率来做交 织，或使国内7月钢材企业产能开工率《生产量、进口量、出口量》环比下降〈减少、减少、增加〉，具体而言：电解铜制杆产能开工率或环化升高；再生铜制杆（再生钢杆厂因废钢流 通有限和成品库存较为充浴及反向开票政策而复产缓慢）、铜电线电缆（在手订单消耗和新增订单乏力，但部分广州电线电缆企业反馈祷雨季节阶段性抑制生产解除后，南网订单或卖 节性增加）、钢液包线（传统消费谈季抑制下游下单 ...

Core Insights - The Indian government documents indicate a long-term need for financial support to establish new smelting and refining capacities of 40,000 to 50,000 tons per year [1] Group 1 - The focus on developing smelting and refining capabilities is crucial for India's industrial growth [1] - Financial backing is essential to achieve the targeted capacity expansion in the sector [1]

印度政府文件显示，印度鼓励外国铜企在印度设立冶炼厂和精炼厂。 ...

文字早评 2025/07/04 星期五 宏观金融类 股指 前一交易日沪指+0.18%，创指+1.90%，科创 50+0.24%，北证 50+0.21%，上证 50+0.07%，沪深 300+0.62%， 中证 500+0.50%，中证 1000+0.53%，中证 2000+0.71%，万得微盘+0.62%。两市合计成交 13097 亿，较上 一日-672 亿。 宏观消息面： 1、证监会党委近日召开扩大会议，会议强调，始终把维护市场稳定作为监管工作首要任务，推动健全 常态化稳市机制安排，平稳有序防控债券违约、私募基金等领域风险，为资本市场高质量发展创造更加 良好的环境。 2、美国 6 月 ADP 就业人数减少 3.3 万人，预估为增加 9.8 万人，前值为增加 3.7 万人。 3、美政府取消对华 EDA 出口限制 三大芯片软件商恢复对华供货。 4、国家药监局：配合相关部门出台基于脑机接口技术的医疗器械产品支持政策。 消息方面：1、6 月财新中国服务业 PMI 录得 50.6，较 5 月回落 0.5 个百分点，景气度在扩张区间下行 至 2024 年四季度以来最低。2、美国 6 月非农就业报告超预期，新增就业人口 ...