巨星农牧在2024年年度报告中表示，公司将持续聚焦生猪养殖主航道，2025年公司规划商品猪出栏量目 标设定在400万头以上，同时将商品猪完全成本控制在6.5元/斤以内。凭借不断创新升级的养殖技术优 势和智能化管理水平，公司养殖效率将稳步提升，养殖成本有望持续优化。未来，巨星农牧有望以管理 迭代和技术创新实现高质量发展和可持续成长，坚持紧密型"公司+农户"模式联农带农促进农民就业增 收，通过提效节粮助力实现国家粮食安全战略，力争为推进乡村全面振兴创造更多价值。 2024年，巨星农牧实现营业收入60.78亿元，同比增长50.43%；实现归母净利润5.19亿元，盈利能力显 著改善。在行业向标准化、规模化、智能化发展的大趋势中，公司多措并举提升经营管理质量和技术研 发水平，科学规划养殖产能布局，创新提质促进增效降本，强化动物疫病防治工作，联农带农深入推进 乡村全面振兴。巨星农牧积极响应设施农业现代化提升行动，以生猪养殖产能新建项目、养殖技术研究 基地建设项目等项目推动建设标准规范、装备先进、产出高效的现代化养殖设施。同时，公司积极探索 实施智慧农业建设工程，以数字智能化建设项目加速赋能生猪养殖设施向数字化、智能化转型 ...

农林牧渔 2025 年 06 月 12 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -29% -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2024-06 2024-10 2025-02 农林牧渔 沪深300 相关研究报告 《生猪降重或进一步抬升 2025H2 猪 价，供给收缩及需求支撑驱动牛价稳 步上移—行业周报》-2025.6.8 ——行业点评报告 | 陈雪丽（分析师） | 王高展（联系人） | 朱本伦（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | chenxueli@kysec.cn | wanggaozhan@kysec.cn | zhubenlun@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790520030001 | 证书编号：S0790123060055 | 证书编号：S0790124060020 | 行业：5 月大猪出栏释放，2025H2 猪价不悲观 情绪催化大猪出栏致 5 月猪价承压，供给压力前置释放叠加缺口传导将至， 2025H2 猪价不悲观。据涌益咨询，2025 年 5 月全国生猪销售均价 14.61 元/公斤， 环比-1.31%，同比-7.49%。涌益监控样本 ...

Core Viewpoint - The pork industry is facing significant pressure due to declining prices, with various companies reporting decreased sales revenue and a potential shift in policy aimed at stabilizing prices and improving profitability in the sector [1][2][3]. Group 1: Company Performance - In May, TianKang Biological (002100) sold 229,700 pigs, generating sales revenue of 345 million yuan, with an average selling price of 14.02 yuan/kg [1]. - From January to May, TianKang Biological sold a total of 1.2851 million pigs, a year-on-year increase of 12.49%, with cumulative sales revenue of 1.902 billion yuan, up 4.22% from the previous year [1]. - Despite low pork prices, TianKang Biological managed to keep its breeding costs below 13 yuan/kg, allowing for profitability even with market prices at 14.02 yuan/kg [2]. Group 2: Industry Trends - As of June 10, the wholesale price of pork has dropped to 20.3 yuan/kg, a decrease of 9.21% since the end of last year and nearly 27% from the peak in August of the previous year [1]. - The national pig-to-grain price ratio has been declining, falling from 7.95 yuan/kg to 6.29 yuan/kg, nearing the warning line for excessive decline [1]. - The government has initiated a reserve mechanism, with a plan to store 10,000 tons of frozen pork, marking the first storage action since 2025 [2]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Analysts predict that if recent policies to stabilize pork prices are fully implemented, the pig farming industry could return to normal profitability by 2025, with cost-competitive companies likely to achieve excess returns [2]. - The overall valuation of the pig farming sector is at historical lows, with the Shenyin Wanguo pig farming sector's price-to-earnings ratio below the 10th percentile historically [3]. - TianKang Biological's current rolling P/E ratio is 12.45, the lowest in the pig farming sector, indicating potential for growth as the market stabilizes [3].

Core Viewpoint - In May, both large-scale and medium-sized pig farming sectors experienced an increase in breeding sow inventory, with trends aligning between the two groups. However, as pig prices decline and profitability shrinks, changes in inventory levels may continue to reflect similar patterns in June [1][6][7]. Group 1: Breeding Sow Inventory - In May, the national breeding sow inventory increased month-on-month, with large-scale farms showing a shift from negative to positive growth, while medium-sized farms saw a narrowing increase [3][4]. - The increase in large-scale breeding sow inventory is attributed to ongoing expansion activities, including clearing and replanting, as well as replenishing stocks affected by previous pig diseases [3][4]. - Medium-sized farms faced a decline in piglet transaction enthusiasm and prices, leading to a more cautious approach, which resulted in a slower growth rate in breeding sow inventory [3][4]. Group 2: Pig Inventory - The national pig inventory also saw a month-on-month increase in May, with large-scale farms experiencing a narrowing growth rate while medium-sized farms shifted from a decrease to an increase [4][6]. - The average weight of pigs traded in May showed a slight decline, which, combined with falling prices and rising temperatures, led to reduced confidence among farmers, particularly in large-scale operations [4][6]. - Medium-sized farms benefited from lower costs for secondary fattening and feed, contributing to an increase in pig inventory as they did not sell off previously fattened pigs before the Dragon Boat Festival [4][6]. Group 3: Outlook for June - In June, piglet prices are expected to decline further, with many regions seeing prices drop below 500 yuan per head, and southern regions experiencing pig prices falling below the cost line of 14 yuan per kilogram [6][7]. - As profitability continues to decrease, both large-scale and medium-sized farms may adjust their strategies, with large farms potentially reducing weight and production to avoid losses, while medium-sized farms may accelerate the culling of breeding sows [6][7]. - Despite the anticipated decline in breeding sow inventory by the end of June, the decrease is expected to be limited due to ongoing expansion activities in certain regions [7].

数据显示，截至6月10日，全国外三元生猪均价为14.01元/公斤，较"五一"节后下滑约0.8元/公斤。 谈及生猪价格走势，徽商期货生猪鸡蛋分析师尉秀分析称，"五一"节后，市场需求仍疲软，生猪市场供 需失衡导致其价格处于弱势。进入5月中下旬，随着气温升高，大肥猪需求随之减少，利润也进一步缩 水，从而抑制了养殖主体育肥增重的预期。养殖端出栏节奏加快，但需求承接力依然不强，叠加二次育 肥出多补少，生猪供应整体宽松，导致猪价快速走低，部分区域跌破14元/公斤。5月底，在猪价连续走 低后，吸引部分区域开启备货，生猪屠宰量快速上升，养殖端顺势提涨，促使猪价止跌反弹。不过，短 暂反弹后，猪价未能摆脱下行通道，继续走弱。 透视当前的生猪市场供需逻辑，杨蕊霞认为，从生猪行业产能数据和供应端新生仔猪数量来看，二者均 表明未来生猪理论出栏量将持续恢复，供应压力会不断上升。她认为，未来市场关注的焦点是养殖企业 的降重和出栏节奏，以及收储政策能否延续。 当下，养殖端生猪出栏热情高涨，不断涌向市场，而需求端则相较乏力。面对当前的供需局面，国家猪 肉收储及时登场。6月9日，华储网发布关于2025年6月11日中央储备冻猪肉收储竞价交易有关事 ...

Group 1 - The A-share pig farming sector saw significant gains, with stocks like Zhenghong Technology hitting the daily limit and Shennong Group rising over 7% [1] - On June 9, the National Storage Network announced the first round of central reserve frozen pork storage for the year, with a quantity of 10,000 tons [1] - The average price of pigs in China has been declining, with a reported price of 14.78 yuan/kg in the first week of June, down 0.4% from the previous week, marking six consecutive weeks of decline [1][2] Group 2 - As of April, the number of breeding sows in China was 40.38 million, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, remaining above the normal target of 39 million [2] - The expected profit for pig farming has dropped significantly, with a current estimate of 80.1 yuan per head, down over 65% from the high of 229.99 yuan per head at the beginning of the year [2] - Cost control has become a critical focus for pig farming companies, with TianKang Biological reporting a breeding cost of 13 yuan/kg and a selling price of 14.32 yuan/kg, indicating a clear profit margin [2] Group 3 - The stock prices of pig farming companies have generally risen since the announcement of the frozen pork storage, with an average increase of 4.09% in June, outperforming the CSI 300 index by over 2 percentage points [3] - Some stocks in the pig farming sector remain undervalued, with an average price-to-book ratio of 2.66 times, while TianKang Biological and Dongrui shares have ratios below 1.5 times [3] - TianKang Biological is expanding its international business, having shipped 56 tons of high-quality feed products to Uzbekistan, marking its entry into the international market [3] Group 4 - Twelve stocks have received ratings from five or more institutions, with Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Haida Group leading in institutional coverage [4] - Predictions indicate that ten stocks are expected to see net profit growth by 2025, with Huazhong Holdings, New Wufeng, New Hope, and Dabeinong projected to have growth rates exceeding 100% [4]

如何看待后续生猪供需与价格情况？20250611 摘要 受政策影响，二次育肥补栏减少，但养殖户惜售情绪导致栏舍利用率仍 较高，尤其在东北、河南、山东等地，二次育肥处于僵持阶段。 集团企业普遍降重，中型养殖场预计在六七月份跟进，增加出栏量，导 致价格下跌。6 月中旬至 7 月中旬是集中降重期，整体价格趋势向下。 2025 年上半年生猪平均体重大幅增加，导致供给压力增大。大集团企 业通过提前降重来提升价格，以避免下半年价格过低。 预计 6 月中旬至 7 月中旬出栏量将略微增加，整体价格趋势向下。合理 调整体重有助于减轻供应压力，确保下半年价格不会过低。 头部企业母猪产能扩张明显收敛，2024 年全年母猪产能微增，主要因 预计 2025 年仔猪市场需求增加。政策建议稳产能，避免未来仔猪价格 下跌。 当前商品猪每头盈利约 160 元，仔猪每头盈利约 460 至 480 元。短期 内未出现真正的去化现象，中小养殖户根据行情波动调整生产计划。 预计 6 月底或 7 月上旬结束减重，主流趋势偏向下行，7 月中旬后肥猪 减少、二次育肥及开学备货可能支撑猪价上涨。若企业增重，四季度行 情可能较差。 Q&A 今年生猪市场的整体行 ...

Group 1 - Libet has received approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission for the issuance of convertible bonds, valid for 12 months [1] - Dinglong plans to acquire an additional 8% stake in its subsidiary, increasing its ownership from 91.35% to 99.35% for a total price of 240 million yuan [1] - Longyuan Donggu has been designated as a supplier for a major automotive project, with an expected total sales amount of 450 to 500 million yuan over five years [14] Group 2 - Luoniushan reported a sales revenue of 100 million yuan in May, a year-on-year decrease of 11.45% [2] - Baoming Technology has secured a loan commitment of up to 7 million yuan for stock repurchase [2] - Xinhua Pharmaceutical has received approval for the listing of a new chemical raw material used in treating chronic heart failure and hypertension [3] Group 3 - China Minmetals announced a new contract amount of 396 billion yuan for the first five months of the year, a decrease of 22.2% year-on-year [7] - Zhongbei Communication's application for a specific stock issuance has been accepted by the Shanghai Stock Exchange [8] - Rongfa Nuclear Power plans to issue bonds not exceeding 1 billion yuan to repay debts and supplement working capital [9] Group 4 - Phoenix Optical plans to invest 8.5 million USD to establish a wholly-owned subsidiary in Vietnam for manufacturing optical products [11] - Xiamen Airport reported a passenger throughput of 2.4752 million in May, a year-on-year increase of 8.34% [12] - Weilan Biological has received a new veterinary drug registration certificate for a product aimed at treating canine allergies and inflammation [13] Group 5 - Shouxiangu has completed the registration of a health food product that claims to enhance immunity [13] - Xingye Yinxin's subsidiary has passed a resource reserve verification report, confirming significant mineral reserves [16] - Shaanxi Construction has won two major projects with a total contract value exceeding 2.8 billion yuan [18] Group 6 - Huari received a cash dividend of 50 million yuan from its subsidiary [20] - Zhongchu's deputy general manager has resigned due to governance arrangements [21] - Kexin Pharmaceutical's core product has received breakthrough therapy designation from the National Medical Products Administration [39]

新华财经北京6月11日电（王菁）民营经济是推进中国式现代化的生力军，是高质量发展的重要基石。 今年中央一号文件指出"着力健全要素保障和优化配置体制机制"，这无疑为金融支持实体尤其是农业领 域明确了重要路径。 "全国首批、河南省首单、民营企业、农业产业化国家龙头......"在近期备受市场关注的债券市场"科技 板"实践落地过程中，牧原股份作为生猪养殖行业"领头羊"走在前列，生动树立了实体企业积极参与资 本市场的行动典范，也收获了债务融资工具精准引导资金活水兴农的优质案例。 牧原股份董事会秘书秦军表示，"养猪是一个传统的行业，高质量发展离不开创新。科技创新需要多元 化的资金支持，而科创债正是连接资本与创新的重要桥梁。此次发债也将提升牧原科技研发能力和农业 现代化能力。" "拥抱政策、专业运营" 首批实践收获良好"价量" "今年3月全国两会明确提出'建立债券市场科技板'后，牧原股份就开始迅速响应政策导向，我们联合中 信银行启动债券发行筹划，与人民银行、交易商协会等监管机构开展多轮专项沟通。"回溯起参与首 批"科技板"债券发行的点滴，牧原食品债券业务负责人潘志颖依然记忆犹新。 潘志颖介绍，"基于政策对科技型实体企业的 ...

通胀回暖，看好农业板块 农林牧渔团队 证券分析师：周莎 SAC NO:S1120519110005 2025年6月10日 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 证券研究报告 目录 1 01 通胀预期升温 02 生猪养殖：猪价偏弱震荡，成本优者盈利可观 03 种植：政策预期&需求改善，粮价渐回暖，景气有望修复 04 风险提示 01 通胀预期升温 2 1.1 政策诉求明确，通胀预期回升 政策定调促进物价合理回升。回顾2024年以来的央行货币政策执行报告，2024Q1-Q2提出要"把维护价格稳定、推 动价格温和回升作为把握货币政策的重要考量，加强政策协调配合，保持物价在合理水平"，2024Q3-2025Q1连续 三个季度提出要"把促进物价合理回升作为把握货币政策的重要考量，推动物价保持在合理水平"。提物价诉求明 确，且采取了一系列政策举措，包括降准降息，如大型存款类金融机构的存款准备金率从2024年8月的10%降至2025 年5月的9%，7天逆回购利率从2024年7月的1.8%降至目前的1.4%。 图2 中国7天逆回购利率 资料来源：Wind，华西证券研究所 图1 我国大型与中小型存款类金融机构存款准备金率 资料来 ...