Economic Overview - The macroeconomic environment in April 2025 shows a steady improvement, with industrial production growing robustly and manufacturing investment increasing by 8.8% in the first four months, effectively offsetting a decline in real estate investment, which fell by 10.3%[5] - Social retail sales for January to April increased by 4.7% year-on-year, supported by the effects of trade and tourism[5] - Industrial added value rose by 6.4% year-on-year in the first four months, with strong performance in equipment manufacturing[5] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) grew by 4.0% year-on-year in April, with manufacturing investment at 8.8% and infrastructure investment at 5.8%[22] - The decline in real estate investment is significant, with a cumulative decrease of 10.3% in the first four months, indicating a need for policy support to stabilize the sector[22] Inflation and Pricing - The current economic environment is characterized by low inflation, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) at -0.1% and the Producer Price Index (PPI) at -2.7%[10] - The focus on price recovery is crucial, with core CPI recovery linked to the stabilization of the real estate market, which is essential for internal demand recovery[5] Structural Dynamics - The "Manufacturing Nation" strategy continues to strengthen economic resilience, effectively countering the negative impacts of real estate and consumption on economic growth[5] - The ongoing structural transformation is expected to gradually reduce the drag from real estate and consumption, allowing for a more balanced economic outlook[5] Future Outlook - The economic environment is entering a "dragon in the field" phase, suggesting a potential turning point in negative narratives, with a more optimistic view on RMB assets[5] - The macroeconomic policy is expected to dynamically calibrate and gradually strengthen, indicating a shift in market expectations[6]

热点报告——股指期货 [★Ta2b0l2e5_S年um4m月a经ry]济数据解读： 1、作为关税战升级以来的首个月份，中国各项经济指标均同比 走弱，除工增外均不及市场预期，反映出经历一季度的快速修 复后，国内经济压力开始显现。4 月份工增、社零、固投季调环 比增速分别为 0.22%、0.24%、0.1%，均处于历史季节性低位。 扣减掉价格因素后，前 4 月累计看，供给侧表现仍好于需求侧。 股 2、供给侧方面，无论是工业还是服务业虽然同比增速回落，但 结构上均呈现出新质生产力增长较为稳固的态势。高技术制造 业、信息技术服务业等增速分别录得 10%、10.4%。 指 期 货 3、消费增长不及预期。一方面餐饮消费或存在低价内卷现象， 另一方面商品零售则表现为美妆、金银珠宝高增长，而传统补 贴领域的汽车和通信类产品增速开始收敛。 4、投资端，制造业和基建仍有韧性。但地产端，投资、销售、 价格三弱的态势表明"止跌"态势不稳，有较大下行压力。 ★投资建议 增长动能放缓--2025 年 4 月经济数据解读 4 月份经济数据整体表现平淡，出口的高增和内需的低迷形成鲜 明对照。国内政策发力的"疲惫期"或逐渐开始显现，突出表 现 ...

Economic Growth and Stability - China's national economy continues to show stable growth, with multiple indicators signaling positive trends despite a complex international environment [1][7] - In April, the industrial production showed a steady recovery, with the industrial added value for large enterprises increasing by 6.1% year-on-year, marking one of the fastest monthly growth rates since last year [2][3] Industrial Production and New Quality Productivity - The industrial sector is transitioning towards high-end, intelligent, and green development, supported by effective policy measures [2][3] - High-tech industries are experiencing rapid growth, with the added value of equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing increasing by 9.8% and 10.0% year-on-year, respectively [2] - Notable growth in specific sectors includes aerospace equipment manufacturing and integrated circuit manufacturing, with increases of 21.4% and 21.3% [2] Consumer Market Dynamics - The consumer market is showing stable growth, with total retail sales of consumer goods reaching 37,174 billion yuan in April, a year-on-year increase of 5.1% [4][5] - The sales of essential and upgraded goods are performing well, with significant growth in categories such as food and sports entertainment products [4] - The "old for new" policy is driving substantial sales increases in home appliances and communication equipment, with year-on-year growth rates of 38.8% and 19.9%, respectively [4] Investment and Trade Performance - Despite external pressures, China's foreign trade remains stable, with total goods import and export value increasing by 2.4% in the first four months of the year [7] - Fixed asset investment grew by 4% in the same period, with equipment investment rising by 18.2%, contributing significantly to overall investment growth [7] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a slight year-on-year decline of 0.1% in April, indicating a stable inflation environment [7][8] Economic Resilience and Future Outlook - China's economic foundation is solid, with a robust manufacturing sector and a large consumer market, providing strong resilience against various risks [8] - The government aims to enhance domestic demand and implement policies to support industrial development and innovation [3][5]

Economic Overview - The current economic operation in China faces increased challenges due to uncertainties in international circulation, but favorable conditions for long-term economic improvement remain unchanged [1] - The national economy has shown a good start this year, with April maintaining stable growth, laying a foundation for achieving annual targets [2] Consumer and Investment Trends - Domestic demand plays a significant stabilizing role, with final consumption expenditure contributing over 50% to economic growth in Q1 [2] - The implementation of policies such as the trade-in program for consumer goods has boosted retail markets, particularly in appliances and furniture [2] - Fixed asset investment has increased by 4% year-on-year, with manufacturing investment growth close to 9% [2] Industrial Growth and Innovation - The industrial economy has shown positive momentum, with a 6.4% year-on-year increase in the added value of large-scale industries from January to April [2] - High-tech manufacturing sectors have outperformed average industrial growth rates, with significant increases in the production of industrial robots and new energy vehicles [2] Regulatory Environment and Support for Enterprises - New laws and regulations have been implemented to enhance the vitality of various business entities, including the promotion of private economy and fair competition [3] - The government has introduced measures to support industries facing challenges in transformation and export, fostering a more favorable business environment [3] Global Economic Integration - Despite rising protectionism and unilateralism, globalization remains a historical trend, and many multinational companies continue to invest in China, reflecting confidence in the market's potential [3] - China aims to enhance its economic circulation quality and promote efficient connections between domestic and international markets [3] Innovation and Digital Transformation - China is transitioning from being a manufacturing hub to a global innovation center, with multinational companies upgrading their R&D centers in China to focus on digital innovation [4] - The integration of digital technologies with manufacturing and market advantages is being accelerated, promoting opportunities for emerging industries [4] Green Transformation - There is a strong commitment to promoting a comprehensive green transformation in economic and social development, focusing on clean energy utilization and the growth of the renewable energy sector [5]

从政策效果看，"真金白银"精准"落袋"。增值税发票数据显示，今年前4个月，高技术产业销售收入、 全国科技成果转化服务销售收入、数字经济核心产业、全国企业采购数字技术金额同比分别增长 13.9%、33.6%、9.7%、9.4%。一连串数据，折射出新质生产力加快发展的势头。 制造业创新发展成色更足。数据显示，前4个月，制造业企业销售收入同比增长4.7%，其中，装备制造 业、数字产品制造业、高技术制造业销售收入同比分别增长9.4%、12.6%和12.2%，显示制造业稳步增 长、创新发展成色更足，为持续巩固经济向好势头夯实基础。 为确保政策红利直达快享，国家税务总局明确，将持续依托税收大数据深化拓展"政策找人"，实现政策 精准推送，同时严厉打击骗享税费优惠的违法行为，坚决不让政策"红包"落入不法分子"腰包"。 往后看，为助力新质生产力加速培育、制造业高质量发展，还需进一步发挥政策协同作用。在这方面有 关部门已展开相关部署，例如，日前七部门印发的《加快构建科技金融体制有力支撑高水平科技自立自 强的若干政策举措》提出，用好用足贷款贴息、风险补偿等财政工具支持企业科技创新，落实好天使投 资、创业投资相关税收政策等。 可以预 ...

Group 1 - The manufacturing sector in China showed significant growth in April, with a year-on-year increase of 9.8% in the value added of large-scale equipment manufacturing, contributing 55.9% to the overall industrial production growth [3] - High-tech manufacturing and digital product manufacturing also experienced a year-on-year increase of 10%, driven by strong demand for servers and industrial robots, with server production nearly doubling and industrial robot production increasing by 51.5% [3] - The government plans to continue implementing policies to enhance the quality and scope of new industries, accelerate the "AI+" initiative, and expand effective investment to promote sustained growth in the industrial economy [3] Group 2 - China and the ten ASEAN countries have completed negotiations for the upgraded version 3.0 of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area, which includes nine new chapters focusing on digital economy, green economy, and supply chain connectivity [5] - The 3.0 version aims to deepen regional economic integration and enhance the integration of production and supply chains, providing greater certainty for regional and global trade amid significant economic challenges [5] - Both parties will actively promote domestic approval processes to facilitate the formal signing of the upgraded agreement by the end of the year [5] Group 3 - The Fourth China-Africa Economic and Trade Expo is scheduled to be held from June 12 to 15 in Changsha, Hunan, with participation from over 12,000 individuals from 44 African countries and six international organizations [6][7] - The expo will feature various sectors including mining technology, clean energy, and modern agricultural machinery, along with special exhibitions showcasing well-known brands and products from Africa [7] - The Chinese government will support all least developed countries that have diplomatic relations with China by offering zero tariffs on 100% of product categories, allowing them to benefit from the Chinese market [7]

央广网昆明5月21日消息（记者 魏文青）21日，云南省统计局、国家统计局云南调查总队发布2025年1 至4月云南省经济运行情况。数据显示，今年以来，云南全省主要经济指标运行平稳，结构持续优化， 新动能不断增强，经济呈现持续回升向好的态势。 记者从云南省统计局了解到，总体来看，1至4月份，云南省主要经济指标运行平稳，工业、服务业、消 费、能源等重点领域支撑有力。下一步，云南将深入落实稳增长政策措施，着力推进产业转型升级，加 快项目建设和投资落地，积极促进消费扩容提质，切实稳就业、稳预期、稳企业、稳市场，推动经济高 质量发展不断取得新进展。 高端制造动能增强。装备制造业、高技术制造业增加值同比分别增长13.2%、11.4%，分别快于全部规 上工业增加值8.2、6.4个百分点。电子行业增加值增长14.5%。其中，新能源电池产业、绿色铝产业分 别增长79%、7.8%。 绿色能源发展基础持续夯实。1至4月份，全省规模以上工业发电量1232.52亿千瓦时，同比增长9.9%， 比一季度加快0.4个百分点。清洁电力（水力、风力、光伏）比重达80.7%，较上年同期提高1.6个百分 点。 消费市场整体保持稳定。1至4月份，云南省 ...

Economic Overview - The overall economic operation of the province is stable and improving, with a solid foundation for stability and continuous expansion of new growth spaces, indicating a trend towards high-quality development [2] - From January to April, the industrial added value above designated size increased by 8.1% year-on-year, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points compared to the first quarter [2] Industrial Performance - In April, the industrial added value above designated size grew by 8% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points from March [2] - Among the 40 major industrial categories, 36 achieved year-on-year growth, resulting in a growth rate of 90% [2] - Advanced manufacturing sectors showed strong performance, with equipment manufacturing growing by 10.9%, high-tech manufacturing by 12.9%, and core digital product manufacturing by 11.4%, all exceeding the overall industrial growth rate [2] Consumer Market - The province's consumer market remained stable, with total retail sales of consumer goods reaching 15,991.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.5% from January to April [3] - The growth of green and smart consumption is a highlight, with retail sales of new energy vehicles and energy-efficient appliances increasing by 59.7% and 60.5% respectively in April [3] - Online retail sales from January to April grew by 28.3%, contributing 5.8 percentage points to the total retail sales, with online sales accounting for 24.3% of total retail sales [3] Investment Trends - The province is focusing on key areas and weak links to actively expand effective investment, with infrastructure investment growing by 10.9% year-on-year from January to April, an increase of 2.6 percentage points compared to the first quarter [4][5] - Investments in infrastructure projects of 500 million yuan and above grew by 8.7% and 9.7% respectively [5]

华夏时报（www.chinatimes.net.cn）记者 张智 北京报道 4月份，面对外部冲击影响加大、内部困难挑战叠加的复杂局面，我国经济顶住压力稳定增长，延续向新向好态 势。 5月19日，国家统计局新闻发言人、国民经济综合统计司司长付凌晖表示，4月我国经济生产需求平稳增长，就业 形势总体稳定，新动能积聚成长。 毕马威中国发布的2025年二季度《中国经济观察》报告指出："内需方面，得益于国内政策前置发力，居民消费、 企业投资显现出较强韧性；外需方面，在4月对等关税预期之下，企业抢出口活动热度较高。内需修复，外需走 强，国内生产热度也同步回升。" 不过，毕马威中国经济研究院院长蔡伟也对本报记者提醒，后续经济表现仍存隐忧。内需方面，当前国内生产仍 然强于需求，物价仍在低位波动，一季度GDP平减指数为-0.8%，已经连续第八个季度为负；房企库存压力不减， 房地产企稳的前景仍不明朗；耐用消费品以旧换新消费政策刺激效果或将减弱。外需方面，短期因中美贸易谈判 取得实质性进展，关税降幅超预期，二季度我国出口仍有支撑，但后续中美博弈或长期拉锯，国际贸易形势依然 复杂多变，需要政府和企业提前布局。 "下阶段，要坚持稳中求进 ...

Economic Growth and Stability - In April, China's economy demonstrated resilience and stability despite external shocks and internal challenges, with macro policies working in coordination to support growth [3] - The industrial production saw a significant increase, with the industrial added value growing by 6.1% year-on-year, driven by robust performance in equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors [5][13] Industrial Performance - Equipment manufacturing added value increased by 9.8%, while high-tech manufacturing added value grew by 10%, outperforming the overall industrial growth by 3.7 and 3.9 percentage points respectively [5] - Shanghai SANY Heavy Machinery Co. reported a strong sales performance, with expectations to produce over 5,000 medium-sized excavators in the first four months, reflecting a growth of over 10% year-on-year [7] Consumer Market Dynamics - The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.1% year-on-year in April, indicating a recovery in both goods and service consumption [9] - The service retail sector also showed growth, with a 5.1% increase in the first four months, highlighting the effectiveness of government initiatives to boost consumption [9][11] Foreign Trade Resilience - China's total goods import and export value reached 38,391 billion yuan in April, marking a year-on-year growth of 5.6%, with exports increasing by 9.3% and imports by 0.8% [14] - The export performance of private enterprises and high-tech products has been notably strong, showcasing the resilience of China's foreign trade [19] Service Sector Growth - The national service production index grew by 6.0% year-on-year in April, indicating the service sector's critical role in stabilizing economic growth [13] - The expansion of the service industry is expected to enhance employment resilience and improve residents' income expectations, providing a foundation for consumer recovery [13] Export Market Expansion - Zhongtong Bus's overseas business has shown remarkable results, with significant contracts signed for electric buses in various international markets, enhancing the influence of "Made in China" [16]