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摩根士丹利:G10 外汇策略-我们的最新观点
摩根· 2025-07-04 03:04
Investment Ratings - USD: Bearish [2][12][17] - EUR: Bullish [3][18][19] - JPY: Bullish [4][20][21] - GBP: Neutral [5][22] - CHF: Neutral [6][23] - CAD: Neutral [7][24] - AUD: Neutral [8][25] - NZD: Neutral [9][13] - SEK: Neutral [14][24] - NOK: Neutral [16][24] Core Insights - The report indicates a bearish outlook for the USD, driven by technical factors and expectations of weak growth alongside sticky inflation [2][12][17] - A bullish sentiment is maintained for the EUR, supported by technical momentum and FX hedging, with a significant amount of European holdings in US assets being unhedged [3][19] - The JPY is expected to outperform due to lower US terminal rate pricing and uncertainty regarding tariffs, which may enhance its appeal as a safe haven [4][20][21] - The GBP is viewed neutrally, with potential upside risks depending on local rate movements and fiscal concerns [5][22] - The CHF outlook remains neutral but with a bullish skew, contingent on inflation trends [6][23] - The CAD is expected to face downward pressure due to a bearish outlook on North American growth [7][24] - The AUD's direction is contingent on the RBA's upcoming rate decisions, with a potential rate cut anticipated [8][25] - The NZD outlook is neutral, with risks tied to RBNZ rate decisions [9][13] - The SEK and NOK are both viewed neutrally, with bearish skews due to economic data and oil price pressures [14][16][24] Summary by Currency - **USD**: Bearish due to technical forces and inflation concerns [2][12][17] - **EUR**: Bullish with strong technical support and FX hedging [3][19] - **JPY**: Bullish, benefiting from US data softness and tariff uncertainties [4][20][21] - **GBP**: Neutral with bullish risks based on rate movements [5][22] - **CHF**: Neutral but bullish skew based on inflation data [6][23] - **CAD**: Neutral with bearish risks from economic outlook [7][24] - **AUD**: Neutral with bullish risks depending on RBA decisions [8][25] - **NZD**: Neutral with downside risks from RBNZ [9][13] - **SEK**: Neutral with bearish risks from retail sales data [14][24] - **NOK**: Neutral with bearish risks from oil prices [16][24]
Stock Of The Day: Classic Flag Pattern In Coinbase?
Benzinga· 2025-07-03 18:53
Group 1 - Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) has experienced a stock price increase of approximately 35% over the past two weeks, leading to its designation as the Stock of the Day [1] - A flag pattern has formed on Coinbase's chart, which is typically considered a bullish signal indicating a potential continuation of the upward trend [1][5] - The recent trading activity showed a significant volume increase followed by a period of sideways trading with diminished volume, characteristic of a flag pattern [6] Group 2 - Technical analysis, when applied correctly, focuses on market supply, demand, and psychology, which can reveal reversal patterns during shifts in market leadership [2] - Different reversal patterns can emerge based on the speed of market changes, such as rounded patterns for gradual shifts or double/triple tops/bottoms for more abrupt changes [4] - The flag pattern is distinct as it signifies a temporary break in a trend, suggesting that the stock may soon resume its previous trajectory [5]
X @Token Terminal 📊
Token Terminal 📊· 2025-07-03 18:10
🚨 The monthly DEX trading volume is close to all-time highs at ~$500 billion.The DEX market sector took off properly in July '20. https://t.co/eq2aADJ0vW ...
X @Token Terminal 📊
Token Terminal 📊· 2025-07-03 11:42
RT Token Terminal 📊 (@tokenterminal)Top companies & protocols by TVLLeading market sectors:🏦 Stablecoin issuers💳 Lending💧 Liquid staking🔁 DEXs https://t.co/t7mf6qEOmF ...
X @Yuyue
Yuyue· 2025-07-03 11:38
最近有传闻 OKX 要赴美 IPO,OTC 场外股权估值来到了 10B,不知道我在 OKX 的朋友们有没有发财 😂不过 CRCL 上市由于很多人没有美股账户和 kyc,其实是很多人的遗憾。作为绝大多数人接触加密的起点,想来很多币圈人还是很希望能参与到这次 IPO 的打新或者二级交易的有几个问题比较关心,想和大家讨论一下 @star_okx @Haiteng_okx @Mercy_okx1. 最近币股及 STO 的探索已初见成效,如果 OKX 有计划上市,有没有可能和 Robinhood 一样给交易所用户空投 Pre-IPO 的 STO,或者提供打新机会?2. OKB OKT 和未来的 OKX 股票各自有什么赋能和作用? ...
BloFin WOW (War of Whales) 2025 Grand Prix Opens Registration for $4.2M Trading Championship and Tesla Cybertruck Prize
GlobeNewswire News Room· 2025-07-03 08:55
Core Insights - BloFin has launched the WOW (War of Whales) 2025 Grand Prix trading competition with a total prize pool of up to $4,200,000 USDT, making it one of the most significant trading events in the cryptocurrency sector for 2025 [2][4] Group 1: Competition Overview - The WOW 2025 Grand Prix features four competition formats, including team battles, individual leaderboards, random rewards, and a spin-to-win feature, running from June 26 to July 15, 2025 [3] - The prize pool starts at $35,000 USDT and scales with total trading volume milestones, encouraging more trading activity among participants [4] Group 2: Prize Distribution - Prize distribution includes various categories: Team Competition by Trading Volume (40%), Team Competition by PNL % (20%), Individual Competition by Trading Volume (25%), and Individual Competition by PNL % (15%) [7] - Top-performing teams can win a Tesla Cybertruck, while individual champions will receive luxury giveaways [7] Group 3: Registration Details - Registration for the competition is open from June 20 to July 15, 2025, and team leaders are encouraged to form squads early to enhance their competitive advantage [9] Group 4: Company Profile - BloFin is a leading cryptocurrency exchange specializing in futures trading, offering over 480 USDT-M perpetual pairs and various trading solutions [10] - The platform emphasizes security and compliance, utilizing technologies like Fireblocks and Chainalysis for asset protection [10]
PSQ: Hedging Tool In Bear Markets
Seeking Alpha· 2025-07-02 21:38
Core Insights - The article focuses on the ProShares Short QQQ ETF (NYSEARCA: PSQ), which aims to provide inverse returns to the Nasdaq 100 on a daily basis [1] Group 1 - The ProShares Short QQQ ETF is designed to replicate inverse performance relative to the Nasdaq 100 index [1]
X @Token Terminal 📊
Token Terminal 📊· 2025-07-02 18:44
RT Token Terminal 📊 (@tokenterminal)💵🌱 @placeholdervc co-led @orca_so's $18M Series A in 2021.Four years later, Orca is among the top DEXs on @solana. https://t.co/IobBDzbjTb ...
Setter’s Top 30
20VC with Harry Stebbings· 2025-07-02 16:16
Top Risers in Secondaries Market - Perplexity's ranking surged 12 places to number 7, fueled by potential $500 million funding at a $14 billion valuation and acquisition discussions with Apple executives [1] - Kraken rose 15 places to number 11, driven by strong Q1 revenues of $472 million and adjusted EBITDA of $187 million, up 19% year-on-year, with IPO speculation [2] - Curser, Cribble, Crusoe, and Glean are new additions to the list, indicating high demand [2] Top Fallers in Secondaries Market - Figure AI experienced the biggest drop, falling to number 15, due to winding down primary fundraising and scrutiny of its $395 billion valuation against minimal revenue [3] - XAI fell to number 8, despite sweetening its $5 billion debt offering at a 125% yield, due to a high burn rate of $1 billion per month and projected $13 billion losses in 2025 [4] - Shield AI fell four places to number 13, which is surprising given the current strength of the Defense Tech sector [4]
5 Top S&P 500 Finance Stocks Outperforming the Index in 1H25
ZACKS· 2025-07-02 15:46
Core Insights - The financial services sector outperformed expectations in the first half of 2025, driven by modest economic expansion, decent loan demand, higher interest rates, increased market volatility, and ongoing business restructuring initiatives [1][2][8] Sector Performance - The financial services sector gained over 7% in the January-June period, surpassing the S&P 500 Index's 4.9% rise [2] - Higher interest rates, technology investments, loan growth, and market volatility contributed to the sector's strength [8] Technology and Innovation - Increased use of innovative trading platforms and the adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) are expected to enhance profitability for finance firms in the long run, despite initial technology-related expenses [3] Top-Performing Stocks - Five top-performing stocks in the financial services sector include Coinbase Global (COIN), W. R. Berkley Corporation (WRB), Northern Trust (NTRS), Goldman Sachs (GS), and Charles Schwab (SCHW) [4][8] Coinbase Global (COIN) - Coinbase is positioned to benefit from increased crypto market volatility, with 84% of its revenues coming from the U.S. market [9] - The company is investing in infrastructure and platforms like Base to enhance the practical use of crypto [10] - Coinbase ended Q1 2025 with $10.2 billion in USD resources, a 6.7% increase from the end of 2024 [12] W. R. Berkley Corporation (WRB) - WRB has been investing in startups and expanding into international markets, with a 10.2% year-over-year increase in net premiums written in Q1 2025 [15] - The company is experiencing growth across all business lines except for professional liability and workers' compensation [16] Northern Trust (NTRS) - Northern Trust is focusing on organic expansion and has launched Family Office Solutions to attract ultra-high-net-worth clients [20] - The company reported a return on equity (ROE) of 13% in Q1 2025, indicating progress towards sustainable profitability [22] Goldman Sachs (GS) - Goldman Sachs is restructuring to refocus on core strengths, including the transfer of its GM credit card business and the sale of GreenSky [24][25] - The company expects a recovery in investment banking revenues in the second half of 2025 as economic conditions stabilize [26] Charles Schwab (SCHW) - Schwab is benefiting from a high-interest-rate environment, with its net interest margin improving to 2.12% by the end of Q1 2025 [30] - The company has a strong cash position of $35 billion and a total debt of $39.9 billion as of March 31, 2025 [33]