Core Viewpoint - Longyuan Construction reported a revenue of 9.119 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.27%, but a net loss attributable to shareholders of 663 million yuan, an improvement from a loss of 1.311 billion yuan the previous year. In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.393 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 49.4%, but a net profit of 193 million yuan, compared to a loss of approximately 3.68 million yuan in the same period last year [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company faced financial pressure due to funding shortages, but there are signs of marginal improvement in fundamentals, such as a continuous reduction in contract assets and a shift from credit impairment losses to gains. By the end of 2024, the company's PPP assets were approximately 34.1 billion yuan, and contract assets were 12.2 billion yuan in Q1 2025, showing a consistent decline [1]. - In Q1 2025, the company recorded asset disposal gains of 251 million yuan, primarily from government storage of its subsidiary, Dadi Steel Structure. The fiscal policy is expected to remain loose, potentially contributing to further non-operating gains in the coming quarters [2]. Strategic Developments - The successful completion of the private placement to Hangzhou Transportation Investment Group (HTIG) is anticipated to bring in new orders and reduce costs. HTIG will invest 1.846 billion yuan and become the largest shareholder with a 29.51% stake, which is expected to catalyze the company's fundamentals [2]. - The company signed new contracts worth 396 million yuan in Q1 2025, the lowest since 2018, primarily due to funding shortages. With HTIG as a major shareholder, the company is expected to gain a share in the key project construction market in Hangzhou, which is valued at approximately 200-300 billion yuan annually [2]. Cost Management - The company's financial expenses for 2024 were 1.521 billion yuan, with a financing cost of about 7.40%. It is anticipated that with HTIG's involvement, the financing cost may significantly decrease as state-owned enterprises typically have lower average financing costs [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - As a domestic infrastructure player, the company is less affected by export tariffs and fluctuations in household income. With the support of debt reduction policies, initial signs of fundamental improvement were observed in Q1 2025. The company is projected to achieve revenues of 11.0 billion yuan and 16.15 billion yuan in 2025 and 2026, respectively, maintaining a "strongly recommended" rating [3].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained at "Outperform" [6] Core Viewpoints - The construction decoration sector experienced revenue and profit declines in 2024, but a recovery in fundamentals is expected in 2025 due to increased issuance of special bonds and domestic demand stimulus policies [1][17] - The overall gross margin for the construction sector improved slightly to 10.96%, while the net profit margin decreased to 2.44% due to increased impairment losses and rising expense ratios [2][30] - The international engineering segment showed significant growth, with a year-on-year increase in net profit of 137.2%, contrasting with declines in other sub-segments [3][25] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - In 2024, the CS construction sector achieved revenue of 86,997 billion, down 4.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1,689 billion, down 14.4% year-on-year [1][17] - The decline in revenue growth rate was 11.8 percentage points compared to the previous year, indicating a significant drop in profitability [17] - The overall return on equity (ROE) for 2024 was 6.5%, a decrease of 1.49 percentage points year-on-year [30] 2. Sub-Sector Performance - The international engineering segment outperformed others, with a net profit growth of 137.2%, while other segments like chemical engineering and large infrastructure saw declines [3][25] - The construction sector's performance varied significantly across sub-segments, with design consulting and large infrastructure showing relatively better results [3][25] 3. Q1 2025 Performance - In Q1 2025, the construction sector's revenue and net profit declined by 6% and 8.4% year-on-year, respectively, attributed to slower project progress compared to the previous year [1][27] - New orders in traditional infrastructure showed signs of recovery, with significant year-on-year growth in new contracts for major state-owned enterprises [4][27] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-growth segments within professional engineering, particularly in semiconductor and chemical engineering sectors, which are expected to benefit from increased domestic investment [4][13] - Specific companies such as Sichuan Road and Bridge, and Donghua Technology are highlighted as potential investment opportunities due to their strong performance in Q1 2025 [4][13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A-shares and H-shares of China Railway (601390.SH/0390.HK) with current prices at 5.52 CNY and 3.38 HKD respectively [1]. Core Views - The company is experiencing operational pressure, with a significant decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, but new emerging businesses are growing rapidly [1][5]. - The company aims to improve cash flow and plans to increase mid-term dividends in 2025 [7][8]. Financial Performance - For 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 115.74 billion CNY, a decrease of 8.2% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 27.89 billion CNY, down 16.7% [4][5]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 24.86 billion CNY, a decline of 6.2% year-on-year, with net profit down 19.5% [4][5]. Business Segments - The main business segments, including infrastructure, design consulting, equipment manufacturing, real estate development, and resource utilization, saw revenue declines ranging from 2.5% to 13.1% in 2024 [5]. - The company’s overseas business revenue increased by 10.3% while domestic revenue decreased by 9.1% [5][6]. Emerging Business Growth - New contracts signed in 2024 totaled 2715.18 billion CNY, a decrease of 12.4% year-on-year, with domestic contracts down 14.0% and international contracts up 10.6% [6]. - Emerging business contracts grew by 11.3%, particularly in water conservancy and clean energy sectors, which saw increases of 50% and 22.6% respectively [6]. Cost Management and Dividends - The company effectively managed overall expenses in 2024, despite increased financial costs due to delayed payments from project owners [7]. - A proposed dividend of 1.78 CNY per 10 shares for 2024 reflects a payout ratio of 15.79%, an increase of 0.27 percentage points from the previous year [7]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been adjusted downwards, with net profit estimates of 28.22 billion CNY and 28.64 billion CNY respectively, reflecting a decrease of 10% and 13% [8]. - The report maintains a "Buy" rating based on the rapid growth of emerging industries and overseas orders [8].

Core Viewpoint - UBS has lowered the target price for China Railway Group (00390.HK) to HKD 4.2, while maintaining the company's full-year guidance unchanged [1] Financial Performance - In the first quarter of this year, China Railway Group's revenue and net profit decreased by 6% and 23% year-on-year, respectively [1] - Overall new contracts fell by 10% year-on-year, primarily due to limited growth potential in traditional sectors and the real estate industry still being at a low point [1] Strategic Shift - The company is proactively changing its strategy to focus on quality over scale expansion [1] - A highlight for the company is the 33% year-on-year increase in overseas new contracts, benefiting from significant growth in the real estate and railway projects in Asia and Africa [1] Management Guidance - The management has not altered the full-year guidance, projecting a 3.1% year-on-year increase in new contracts and a 2.4% year-on-year decline in revenue [1] - Management believes that revenue recognition and order intake accelerated in April [1] Earnings Forecast - UBS has reduced its earnings per share forecast for the company by 12% to 15% for the years 2023 to 2027 [1] - The target price has been cut by 12% from HKD 4.8 to HKD 4.2, while maintaining a buy rating [1]

要闻 美国 4 月 ISM 服务业指数 51.6 每日晨报 2025年5月6日 银河观点集萃 责任编辑 周颖 ☎：010-80927635 网:zhouying_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130511090001 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 ● 宏观:黄金进入震荡期,等待美联储降息。黄金突破区间可能需等待美联储降 息或实物黄金需求爆发。未来需要进一步观察美国经济情况,是滞胀还是衰退, 如果出现滞胀并且美联储并未降息,那么黄金大概率呈现震荡向上。如果进入 衰退,黄金会跟随其他大宗商品回调,直至美联储启动降息。黄金的震荡区间 已经被系统性的提升到 3150 美元至 3550 美元,美联储降息后黄金有望上行 至 3700 美元以上。另外,实物黄金需求旺盛或使得下半年黄金再次上行。 宏观:美国滥施关税影响初步显现——2025年4月 PMI 分析。我们认为政府 ● 债的发行使用将加快,对科技、消费和外贸三个方向重点支持。映射到投资上, 短期经济结构性的特征依旧明显,新质生产力相关行业表现更好,政策支持 ...

Core Viewpoint - The construction projects in various sectors in China are progressing smoothly in the first quarter of 2025, with significant growth in project numbers and investment amounts [1] Group 1: Project Data - In the first quarter of 2025, the number of engineering projects reported for work injury insurance through project-based applications reached 39,000, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.4% [1] - The total construction cost of these projects amounted to 1.9 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 4.8% [1] - In March 2025 alone, 18,000 engineering projects were reported, accounting for 46.5% of the total for the quarter [1] Group 2: Investment Trends - The total reported construction cost in March was 800 billion yuan, which constituted 43.9% of the total construction cost for the first quarter [1] - There is a noticeable acceleration in project construction activities, particularly after March, indicating a positive investment momentum [1]

Core Viewpoint - The construction of major projects in Sichuan during the "May Day" holiday is crucial for stabilizing economic growth and promoting high-quality development, with significant investments and progress reported across various sectors [1][4]. Group 1: Major Projects and Investments - The China (Mianyang) Science and Technology City Nuclear Medical Health Industry Park has a total investment of approximately 18.6 billion yuan, with an expected annual output value exceeding 50 billion yuan upon completion [1]. - In the first quarter of this year, Sichuan completed investments of 245.53 billion yuan in 810 provincial key projects, achieving an annual investment completion rate of 31% [4]. Group 2: Infrastructure Development - The Yukun High-speed Railway's key project, the Ma'anshan Tunnel, successfully passed through during the holiday, with strict safety measures in place to ensure zero accidents [1]. - The Xiyu High-speed Railway's Xiangyang No. 1 Tunnel has reached its designed length of 12.766 kilometers, with over 150 workers dedicating their holiday to advance the project [3]. Group 3: Renewable Energy Initiatives - The first grid-connected energy storage power station in Sichuan, the Aba Hongyuan Anqu Phase I Photovoltaic Project, is on track to achieve full capacity grid connection by May 15, with an expected annual power generation of 450 million kilowatt-hours [3].

伍绕了好几个弯。 占地3509平方米的中国馆，是大阪世博会最大的外国自建馆之一，建筑主体钢结构构件超3700件。从 2024年2月开工，到2025年3月底完成全部施工任务，再到上个月正式开馆，中国馆率先通过各项许可验 收，建出了"中国速度"、展现了"中国质量"。 据了解，中国馆将开放至10月13日。这座"中华书简"如何建成？背后有哪些故事？记者专访了大阪世博 会中国馆全过程咨询及参建团队。 "绿"，提供中国方案 选用竹简板等环保建材，建筑更加节能实用 中国馆外观如绵延展开的中华书简。 馆内展出的三星堆文物复制品等展品。 馆内大屏用汉、日、英三种语言欢迎各国游客。 以上图片均为中国建筑科学研究院有限公司提供 走进日本大阪梦洲世博园区，中国馆如一卷绵延展开的中华书简，静静矗立其中。由于中国"五一"假期 与日本黄金周部分日期重叠，来馆游客最近明显增多，中国馆开启满负荷接待模式，排队入馆的游客队 "大阪世博会中国馆围绕的主题是'共同构建人与自然生命共同体——绿色发展的未来社会'，项目从设 计选材到施工运营，都坚持全生命周期绿色低碳的原则，推进废弃物减量和资源回收利用。"中国建筑 科学研究院有限公司建筑设计院院长、大阪 ...

建筑巨头Multiplex因布里斯班皇后码头项目减记近两亿澳元，去年巨亏2.2亿 Queen's Wharf一度被视为宏大愿景的开发项目，由赌场运营商Star Entertainment主导，总成本从最初的 26亿澳元激增至36亿澳元，令项目所有方背负14亿澳元债务。Multiplex因未收账款产生大额亏损，并与 Star主导的财团在2023年将纠纷闹上昆州高等法院，后于年底庭外和解。 尽管已在财务账目中列明巨额减值，Multiplex强调这是基于会计准则所要求、因客户信用质量下降所作 的审慎处理，公司仍在索偿中，一旦收回该笔款项，将计入未来收益。 Multiplex发言人向《澳洲金融评论》表示："我们在布里斯班Queen's Wharf项目上承受了COVID疫情、 高通胀、极端天气、工业关系挑战以及超过1000项客户变更设计要求等多重冲击。这是一个在经济环境 较温和时期中标的大型复杂项目。" "尽管如此，我们展现出强大韧性，并自豪地完成并交付了一个改变城市面貌的工程。Queen's Wharf的 亏损已被隔离并计入账目，项目已无遗留成本。" 由于客户Star Entertainment集团财务状况恶化，建筑 ...

Core Insights - China State Construction Engineering Corporation (CSCEC) reported strong core operating data for Q1 2025, with new contract value reaching 1,270.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.9% [2] - The company achieved operating revenue of 555.3 billion yuan, up 1.1% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 15.01 billion yuan, reflecting a 0.6% increase [2] Construction Business Performance - In the construction segment, new contracts signed amounted to 1,203.7 billion yuan, representing an 8.4% year-on-year growth [2] - Infrastructure business contracts reached 420.6 billion yuan, showing a significant growth of 40.0% [2] - Physical indicators included a construction area of 1,458.08 million square meters, new construction area of 92.93 million square meters (up 61.8%), and completed area of 28.56 million square meters [2] Real Estate Business Performance - The company added 1.95 million square meters of land reserves, all located in first-tier, strong second-tier, and provincial capital cities, with total land reserves at 76.25 million square meters [2] - Real estate revenue was 53.7 billion yuan, a 15.5% increase year-on-year, with gross profit of 9.06 billion yuan, up 1.5% [2] Overseas Business Growth - CSCEC's overseas new contract value reached 67.4 billion yuan, a remarkable increase of 150% year-on-year, with overseas revenue of 23.9 billion yuan, up 8.5% [3] - The company is focusing on strategic emerging industries, urban renewal, and urban operation, achieving revenue of 45.3 billion yuan in strategic emerging industries, a 34.2% increase, accounting for 8.2% of total revenue [3] Shareholder Confidence - The controlling shareholder, China State Construction Group, has shown confidence in the company's future by increasing its stake, acquiring 110 million A-shares, representing approximately 0.27% of total shares, with a total investment of about 610 million yuan [3] Market Outlook - Several brokerage firms have given positive evaluations of CSCEC's Q1 performance, with Tianfeng Securities suggesting that the company, as a leading state-owned enterprise in the construction sector, is expected to gradually increase its market share and maintain a "buy" rating for long-term investment value [4]