文字早评 2025/07/04 星期五 宏观金融类 股指 前一交易日沪指+0.18%，创指+1.90%，科创 50+0.24%，北证 50+0.21%，上证 50+0.07%，沪深 300+0.62%， 中证 500+0.50%，中证 1000+0.53%，中证 2000+0.71%，万得微盘+0.62%。两市合计成交 13097 亿，较上 一日-672 亿。 宏观消息面： 1、证监会党委近日召开扩大会议，会议强调，始终把维护市场稳定作为监管工作首要任务，推动健全 常态化稳市机制安排，平稳有序防控债券违约、私募基金等领域风险，为资本市场高质量发展创造更加 良好的环境。 2、美国 6 月 ADP 就业人数减少 3.3 万人，预估为增加 9.8 万人，前值为增加 3.7 万人。 3、美政府取消对华 EDA 出口限制 三大芯片软件商恢复对华供货。 4、国家药监局：配合相关部门出台基于脑机接口技术的医疗器械产品支持政策。 消息方面：1、6 月财新中国服务业 PMI 录得 50.6，较 5 月回落 0.5 个百分点，景气度在扩张区间下行 至 2024 年四季度以来最低。2、美国 6 月非农就业报告超预期，新增就业人口 ...

有色商品日报 有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 7 月 4 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | | 点评 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 隔夜 LME 铜震荡走弱，下跌 0.58%至 9951.5 美元/吨；SHFE 铜主力下跌 0.27%至 | | | | 80540 元/吨；现货进口维系亏损态势。宏观方面，美国 6 月非农就业人口增加 14.7 | | | | 万人，预期 10.6 万人，4 月和 5 月非农就业人数合计上修 1.6 万人；失业率 4.1%， 低于预期 4.3%和前值 4.2%。美国就业增长连续第四个月超出预期，失业率进一步下 | | | | 降，这可能进一步降低了美联储于 7 月提前降息的可能性。美国 6 月 ISM 非制造业指 | | | | 数 50.8，略高于预期的 50.6 和 5 月前值 49.9。美国总统特朗普力推的大漂亮"法案， | | | 铜 | 大规模减税与支出法案再次以微弱优势在众议院的表决中得到通过。库存方面，LME | | | | 库存增加 1075 吨至 94325 吨；Comex 铜库存增加 7060 吨至 200448 吨；SMM ...

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance on July 4, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising slightly by 0.05% to 3462.99, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index fell by 0.35% and 0.31% respectively [2][3] - The total trading volume reached 1.77 billion hands, with a turnover of 190.16 billion [4] Sector Performance - The steel sector saw a collective rise, with notable stocks like Liugang and Linggang hitting the daily limit up [10][11] - The banking sector also experienced gains, with several banks, including Zheshang Bank and Shanghai Bank, reaching new highs [16][17] - The pharmaceutical sector remained strong, with stocks like Hotgen and Guangsheng rising over 10% [12][13] Notable Stocks - Hangzhou Garden surged to the daily limit within two minutes of opening, while Nanling Technology also hit the limit up [20][22] - In the steel sector, Liugang shares increased by 10.02%, and Linggang shares rose by 10.16% [11] - In the pharmaceutical sector, Hotgen's stock price increased by 14.57%, and Guangsheng's by 10.75% [13] Industry Insights - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized the need for orderly competition in the photovoltaic industry, aiming to improve product quality and phase out outdated capacity [8] - A report indicated that the photovoltaic industry may face weakening demand in the second half of the year, prompting leading companies to reduce production to improve supply-demand dynamics [9]

| 铅锌日评20250704：区间整理 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/7/4 指标 单位 今值 变动 近期趋势 | | | | | | | | | | | SMM1#铅锭平均价格 元/吨 17,000.00 0.44% | | | | | | | | | | | 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 17,245.00 0.41% | | | | | | | | | | | 沪铅基差 元/吨 -245.00 5.00 | | | | | | | | | | | 元/吨 升贴水-上海 -35.00 - | | | | | | | | | | | 升贴水-LME 0-3 美元/吨 -26.47 0.30 | | | | | | | | | | | -64.00 -5.10 升贴水-LME 3-15 美元/吨 | | | | | | | | | | | 沪铅近月-沪铅连一 元/吨 10.00 40.00 | | | | | | | | | | | 沪铅连一-沪铅连二 元/吨 -3 ...

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 光大期货金融期货日报 光大期货金融期货日报（2025 年 07 月 04 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 美联储主席近日接受国会质询，表示将依据 6 至 7 月数据决定降息路径，同 | | | | 时点阵图也显示美联储内部对于降息意见分歧加大，这都使得市场开始提前 | | | | 计价降息，纳斯达克逼近历史高位。A 股同样受到提振，连续两日上涨，但 | | | A | 股估值目前处于历史均值以上水平，很难连续大幅冲高。此外，稳定币概 | | | | 念近期火爆，稳定币对于跨境交易结算具有较高的便利性，同时也可用作新 | | | | 型储备货币，对于一个国家的金融市场高水平对外开放意义非凡。在 A 股市 | | | 股指 | 场缺乏热点题材的当下，确实可以作为资金重点流入的对象。但是，稳定币 | 震荡 | | | 作为交易媒介取代美元的道路仍较为遥远，市场不宜过分追高。国内基本面 | | | | 上，6 月制造业 PMI 录得 49.7，环比上涨，但仍处于收缩区间；5 ...

铜 有色金属小组 有色金属日报 2025-7-4 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 美国非农数据超预期，隔夜美股继续走强，美元指数回升，铜价震荡下滑，昨日伦铜收跌 0.58%至 9951 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 80540 元/吨。产业层面，昨日 LME 库存增加 1075 至 94325 吨，注册仓 单量维持低位，注销仓单比例下滑至 33.8%，Cash/3M 升水 87.5 美元/吨。国 ...

Group 1 - The introduction of innovative technologies in the zinc smelting industry is significantly reducing energy consumption by approximately 30% and pollutant emissions by over 40%, enhancing metal recovery rates and achieving both environmental and economic benefits [1] - The production of ultra-high purity metals such as 6N and 7N grade tellurium, cadmium, zinc, and indium is entering mass production, supporting the transition of companies from raw material leaders to strong players in new materials [1] - Traditional industries in Jiyuan are actively innovating and upgrading to improve competitiveness in response to increasing domestic and international competition and environmental constraints [1] Group 2 - Jiyuan Steel has developed a world-first non-exchange electrode (10.4-meter self-consumption electrode) process to produce ultra-pure electric slag steel ingots, addressing the challenges of the steel industry's internal competition [2] - Jinma Energy is establishing a complete hydrogen energy industrial chain, supplying 700 to 800 million cubic meters of hydrogen annually to local petrochemical projects [2] - Wanyuan Group is leveraging selenium resources from industrial by-products to produce selenium products, achieving an annual output value of 15 million yuan [2] Group 3 - Jiyuan is implementing a "1+5+N" strategic layout to enhance high-quality development, focusing on five key areas including building a strong industrial city [3] - The city is deepening technological reforms and establishing a comprehensive innovation system to boost productivity through technological advancements [3] - Jiyuan is actively promoting traditional industry upgrades and implementing policies to support enterprise development through a multi-faceted service system [3] Group 4 - The non-ferrous metal industry cluster in Jiyuan has an annual output value of nearly 200 billion yuan, with steel processing and modern chemical industries also approaching the 100 billion yuan mark [4] - All enterprises in the region have achieved ultra-low emissions, and the output value of the circular economy accounts for over 30% of the total industrial output value [4]

Group 1 - International copper futures fell by 0.36% in the night session, while Shanghai copper dropped by 0.27% [1] - Shanghai aluminum decreased by 0.17%, and Shanghai zinc saw a slight decline of 0.02% [1] - Shanghai lead increased by 0.26%, and Shanghai nickel rose by 0.86% [1] - Shanghai tin experienced a marginal increase of 0.04% [1] - Alumina futures fell by 0.07% during the night session [1] - Stainless steel futures rose by 0.71% in the night session [1]

Group 1 - The company Wenzhou Hongfeng Electric Alloy Co., Ltd. issued convertible bonds to unspecified objects, with a total amount of RMB 321.26 million, net proceeds of RMB 315.06 million after deducting issuance costs [2][12] - The bonds were approved by the board of directors and the annual general meeting in 2021, and registered by the China Securities Regulatory Commission [2][3] - The bonds are convertible into A-shares and have a maturity of six years, with an annual interest rate that increases over the years, starting from 0.5% in the first year to 3.0% in the sixth year [3][12] Group 2 - The initial conversion price for the bonds is set at RMB 6.92 per share, with provisions for adjustments based on various corporate actions [6][7] - The company has the right to redeem the bonds at 115% of the face value after maturity and under certain conditions during the conversion period [9][10] - The company received a credit rating downgrade from A to BBB+ due to high costs and losses in its lithium battery copper foil business, which is still in the trial production and expansion phase [14] Group 3 - The company’s core business in electrical contact and functional composite materials showed stable performance, with revenue and gross profit increasing by 17.04% and 35.03% respectively in 2024 [14][15] - The company is facing short-term debt pressure and cash flow issues, with a significant increase in total debt [14] - The company has not experienced any defaults on interest or principal payments as of the report date [15]

研究局限性和风险提示 | | 20250703申万期货有色金属基差日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 铜： 可能短期区间波动 | | | 摘要 | 锌： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | | 铝： 可能短期内震荡 | | | | 镍： 可能短期内震荡 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：夜盘铜价收涨。目前精矿加工费总体低位以及低铜价，考验冶炼产量。 根据国家统计局数据来看，国内下游需求总体稳定向好，电力行业延续正增 | | | 铜 | 长；汽车产销正增长；家电产量增速趋缓；地产持续疲弱。多空因素交织， | 可能短期区 | | | 铜价可能区间波动。关注美国关税进展，以及美元、铜冶炼和家电产量等因 | 间波动 | | | 素变化。 | | | | 锌：夜盘锌价收涨。近期精矿加工费持续回升。由国家统计局数据来看，国 内汽车产销正增长，基建稳定增长，家电产量增速趋缓，地产持续疲弱。市 | 可能短期宽 | | 锌 | | | | | 场预期今年精矿供应明显改善，冶炼供应可能恢复。短期锌价可能宽幅波 动，关注美国关税进展，以及美元、锌冶炼和家电产量等因素变化。 | 幅波动 | ...