进口方面，铁矿砂、原油和煤等主要大宗商品进口价格下跌，机电产品进口值增长。 新华社北京6月9日电（记者邹多为、张晓洁）海关总署9日发布数据显示，今年前5个月，我国货物 贸易进出口总值17.94万亿元，同比增长2.5%，增速较前4个月加快0.1个百分点。其中，出口增长 7.2%，进口下降3.8%。 5月当月进出口3.81万亿元，比去年同期增长2.7%。其中，出口增长6.3%，进口下降2.1%。 海关总署统计分析司司长吕大良表示，今年以来，我国经济持续回升向好，货物贸易在外部压力下 保持较强韧性。进入5月份，我国进出口延续增长态势，特别是中美经贸高层会谈之后，增速明显加 快，当月在同比少2个工作日的情况下，实现平稳增长。 出口方面，机电产品仍为我国出口主力。前5个月，我国出口机电产品6.4万亿元，同比增长9.3%， 占出口比重的六成。其中，工业机器人、电动汽车、集成电路、工程机械分别增长55.4%、19%、 18.9%、10.7%。 值得一提的是，同期，我国对共建"一带一路"国家合计进出口9.24万亿元，同比增长4.2%；对非洲 国家进出口9632.1亿元，增长12.4%，规模创历史同期新高。（完） 作为进出口贸 ...

我国出口产品的附加值不断提高，从以前以低端制造业为主逐步升级到中高端制造业为主。新能源汽 车、光伏、风电成为出口的"弹药"，特别是我国汽车出口近两年已超过日本，成为世界第一大汽车出口 国，体现出我国在高端制造方面的优势越来越明显。虽然出口增速很难再有两位数以上增长，但出口产 品附加值的提升使得我国出口企业的利润明显改善，这也是我们应对贸易关系紧张的重要策略。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 责任编辑：石秀珍 SF183 当前，在贸易关系紧张的背景下，外贸增速面临一定挑战。因此，通过拉动内需来应对外需的不确定性 显得尤为重要。外贸是畅通国内国际双循环的关键枢纽，也是拉动经济增长的"三驾马车"之一。针对当 前贸易关系的复杂局面，商务部负责人表示将加大支持力度，降低外贸企业内销成本。有关部门将进一 步扩大出口信用保险的承保规模和覆盖面，增强外贸企业接单的信心。通过尽快出台提振经济的一揽子 增量政策，将有利于提升市场信心，推动资本市场表现。今天，上证指数在盘中突破3400点整数关口， 市场信心得到有效提振。下半年市场行情值得期待，希望下半年资本市场能够带来更强的赚钱效应。以 人形机器人为代表的科技板块有望继续 ...

大摩闭门会-中国消费动态："新旧、快慢" 有轮转吗？ 20250606 摘要 大消费市场整体疲弱，通缩压力明显，618 促销火爆反映需求不足，端 午节需求增速未见显著改善，人均消费额较疫情前下降约 12%。 选股策略维持困境反转、新兴高成长及估值合理运营优秀公司。推荐乳 业（蒙牛、伊利）、珠宝（周大福）、新兴消费（泡泡玛特、巨子生 物）、运动品牌（百胜中国、安踏）及波司登。 零食品类收入增长显著，受益于新渠道和健康意识，卫龙魔芋产品增速 超预期。企业需关注创新能力、原材料效率及海外市场拓展。 运动板块 4 月销售受影响，5 月因促销活动有所改善，但折扣加深。李 宁、安踏等品牌折扣增加，宝胜库存上涨，销售下跌，库存周转天数增 加。 Lululemon 中国区保持 30%以上增长，高端小众品牌增长较快。安踏 集团多品牌布局成功，Amer Sports 业绩提升，对安踏权益收入有显著 帮助，预计 2025 年保持 10%-15%收入增长。 Q&A 今年以来港股中高成长的新消费业态和行业表现如何？传统大消费板块的表现 又如何？ 今年以来，港股中代表新消费业态和行业的股票表现非常强劲，从年初至今整 体上涨接近 150% ...

Group 1: RCEP and Trade Benefits - The RCEP has issued 1,594 certificates of origin with a total value of 1.313 billion yuan since its implementation on June 2, 2023, allowing 34 companies to enjoy approximately 65 million yuan in tariff benefits [1] - The number of RCEP certificates and the value of goods covered are increasing annually, indicating a significant enhancement in the level of benefits provided by RCEP [1] Group 2: Customs and Regulatory Developments - The establishment of a special customs supervision area is deemed an urgent task for the operation of the Hainan Free Trade Port, as emphasized by Chi Fulin during a seminar marking the fourth anniversary of the Hainan Free Trade Port Law [2] Group 3: Export Growth - Hainan's fruit exports have seen significant growth, with 696 batches inspected and valued at 110 million yuan, marking increases of 134.3% and 75.39% year-on-year, respectively [4] - Hainan's representative fruits such as melons, lychees, and mangoes have made their debut in over ten countries, including Nepal and Belarus, receiving positive feedback [4] Group 4: Tourism Performance - During the Dragon Boat Festival in 2025, Hainan welcomed over 1.855 million tourists, a year-on-year increase of 16.3%, with total tourist spending reaching 1.873 billion yuan, up 12.8% from the previous year [7] - A promotional event titled "Cool Travel Hainan" was held to showcase the development of Hainan as an "International Tourism Consumption Center" [8] Group 5: Youth Development Initiatives - The "Greater Bay Area Free Trade Port Youth Co-Creation Center" was inaugurated in Hong Kong, aimed at providing comprehensive support for young entrepreneurs and cultural talents across the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and Hainan [5]

风险提示：个股盈利不及预期，行业竞争加剧，贸易摩擦加剧，政策不及 预期等。 财政部：增值税法实施条例列入 2025 年度 立法工作安排中 ◼ 今日新股：暂无。 证券研究报告·北交所报告·北交所定期报告 北交所定期报告 20250606 2025 年 06 月 06 日 证券分析师 朱洁羽 执业证书：S0600520090004 zhujieyu@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 易申申 执业证书：S0600522100003 yishsh@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 余慧勇 执业证书：S0600524080003 yuhy@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 薛路熹 执业证书：S0600123070027 xuelx@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 武阿兰 执业证书：S0600124070018 wual@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《金融监管总局：以金融科技创新助 力实体经济发展》 北交所定期报告 内容目录 | 1. 资本市场新闻 | | --- | | 2. 行业新闻 | | 3. 市场表现 | | 3.1. 北交所板块表现 | | 3.2. 北交所个股表现 | | 4. 公司公告 | | ...

行 华福证券 轻工制造 2025 年 06 月 08 日 业 研 究 轻工制造 英美烟草 H2 预期提速，618 大促看好国牌突围 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 【周观点】各大电商平台 618 大促延续，看好个护&户外运动国牌突围； 晨光携手国漫顶流平台腾讯视频，持续看好公司 IP 战略推进；英美烟草公 告 1H25 业绩前瞻，预计下半年新型烟草板块将显著提速，主要驱动为口 含烟持续强劲、下半年 Vuse Ultra 分阶段推出、以及 GLO HILO 在主流市 场分阶段推出，特别是 HNB 板块增速将受益新品在下半年显著提速。 团队成员 | 分析师： | 李宏鹏(S0210524050017) | | --- | --- | | lhp30568@hfzq.com.cn | | | 分析师： | 汪浚哲(S0210524050024) | | wjz30579@hfzq.com.cn | | | 分析师： | 李含稚(S0210524060005) | | lhz30597@hfzq.com.cn | | 相关报告 1、轻工纺服行业周报：618 大促看好个护国牌崛 起，关注智能眼镜新品催化——2025 ...

Core Viewpoint - Hainan is enhancing its transportation policies to create a modern comprehensive transportation system, facilitating international trade and connectivity with the world [4][14]. Transportation Policy and Infrastructure - Hainan has implemented a highly open transportation policy, establishing 60 stable international and domestic shipping routes from Yangpu Port, creating a new pattern of connectivity [4][10]. - The island's three major airports have restored and opened nearly 70 international passenger and cargo routes, significantly improving global access [4][10]. Air Travel Expansion - Hainan has increased the frequency of flights between Haikou and Kuala Lumpur to 8 weekly flights, and between Haikou and Hong Kong to 35 weekly flights, catering to growing trade and tourism demands [5][7]. - The first direct flight from Haikou to London commenced on May 7, reducing travel time by approximately 4.5 hours compared to previous routes [6][7]. Shipping and Maritime Development - The "China Yangpu Port" welcomed its 60th international vessel, marking a significant milestone in Hainan's maritime development [9][10]. - The port's registration system has attracted international shipping companies, benefiting from zero tariffs on transportation tools and export tax rebates, effectively reducing shipping costs by over 11% [9][10]. Economic Impact and Trade Growth - Hainan's exports of lychee have reached over 53 million yuan, with significant shipments to countries like the UAE, Canada, and Spain, showcasing the effectiveness of improved transportation networks [12][13]. - The province's economic openness has increased, with foreign investment growing at an average annual rate of 36%, and trade in goods and services increasing by 21.9% and 20.8% respectively [13][14].

Core Insights - Shanghai's foreign trade import and export reached 1.4 trillion yuan in the first four months of the year, with a year-on-year growth of 1% [1] - Exports amounted to 629.02 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 13.8%, with the growth rate accelerating by 1.2 percentage points compared to the first quarter [1] - Trade with emerging markets has been effective, with imports and exports recorded with over 200 countries and regions, and growth achieved with 166 trading partners [1] Group 1 - Trade with Belt and Road countries reached nearly 600 billion yuan, growing by 11.9% [1] - Trade connections with key regions such as the Middle East and Eastern Europe have strengthened, with import and export growth exceeding 20% [1] - Shanghai Customs has been promoting cross-border trade facilitation for eight consecutive years, aiming to create a safe, convenient, and efficient business environment at ports [1] Group 2 - Shanghai Customs launched the "Shanghai Customs 2025 Cross-Border Trade Facilitation Action Plan," consisting of 33 measures across five areas to boost enterprise confidence and enhance foreign trade quality [2] - The plan includes speeding up customs clearance for key products, expanding multimodal transport services, and enhancing digital technology applications [2] - A pilot program for facilitating the inspection of first-time imported consumer goods has been introduced, utilizing an innovative "whitelist + differentiated qualification assessment" model [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of tariff uncertainties on China's exports, emphasizing the need to understand the core contradictions in the export transmission path and to closely monitor key variables through a high-frequency tracking framework [4][17]. Group 1: Tariff Uncertainty and Export Impact - The fluctuations in Trump's tariffs create significant estimation errors regarding their impact on China's overall exports, making it crucial to identify key variables and track their changes [4][17]. - The core elements affecting U.S. import demand under tariff pressures include U.S. tariff policies, the transmission of tariffs to import prices, and the impact on consumer purchasing power [17]. Group 2: High-Frequency Tracking Framework - A high-frequency tracking framework has been established, consisting of six categories and sixteen indicators to monitor global trade demand, Chinese export volume and price, direct trade flow between China and the U.S., potential transshipment trade, U.S. import demand, and effective tariff rates [18]. - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) and JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI are used to track global trade volume, indicating a downward trend in global cargo export volume growth [5][24]. - The RJ/CRB Index is employed to monitor global trade price growth, showing a recovery from -0.8% to 1.2% between April and May [6][25]. Group 3: Monitoring Chinese Exports - Container throughput at monitored ports is used to track China's export volume, which has shown a marginal decline from 7.3% to 6.7% year-on-year as of May 25 [7][29]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) serves as a leading indicator for China's export prices, indicating a potential weakening trend in export prices over the next three months [8][33]. - Import data from South Korea and Vietnam are utilized as synchronous indicators for China's overall export performance, with recent data suggesting a marginal weakening in exports [9][41]. Group 4: U.S. Import Demand and Tariff Rates - U.S. import demand is tracked through IHS Markit customs data, revealing a decline in import amounts and container volumes, reflecting the impact of new tariffs [13][68]. - The effective tariff rate in the U.S. has increased from 6.3% in April to 8.1% in May, indicating a rising burden on imports [14][86]. - Predictions from the National Retail Federation suggest a significant drop in U.S. container imports, with expectations of a -13% year-on-year decline in May [78][79].

Core Points - Germany's export value in April 2025 decreased by 1.7% month-on-month, reaching approximately €131.1 billion [1] - The import value for Germany in April increased by 3.9% month-on-month, totaling around €116.5 billion [1] Export and Import Analysis - Exports to EU countries amounted to €72.9 billion, showing a slight increase of 0.9% month-on-month, while imports from the EU rose by 4.5% to €59.8 billion [1] - Exports to non-EU countries fell by 4.8% to €58.1 billion, with imports from these countries increasing by 3.4% to €56.7 billion [1] Country-Specific Insights - The United States remains Germany's most significant export market, but exports to the U.S. saw a substantial decline of 10.5% in April, dropping to €13 billion, the lowest since October 2024 [1] - Imports from the U.S. increased by 3.9% to €8.4 billion [1] - Imports from China continued to lead, decreasing by 4.1% to €13.9 billion [1] Economic Implications - Analysts suggest that U.S. trade policies are negatively impacting Germany's export economy [1] - Despite a slight increase in exports during the first quarter of the year, it is believed that this was due to companies preemptively completing transactions in anticipation of potential stricter tariffs from the Trump administration [1]