金十数据整理：每日全球大宗商品市场要闻速递（5月7日） 能源： 1. 市场消息：俄罗斯考虑在油价下跌时收紧预算规则。 2. 凯投宏观：将布油年底价格预期从70美元下调至60美元。将2026年底的价格预测从每桶60美元下调至 50美元。 其他： 1. 沙特内阁声明：沙特阿拉伯将与美国在采矿和矿产资源领域讨论并签署协议。 2. 乌克兰最高拉达外交政策委员会批准矿产协议草案。 3. 普渡大学：4月份美国农民信心上升。 4. 墨西哥农业部长：与美国同行并达成了对两国都有益的协议。 5. 英媒：英美将于本周达成贸易协定 降低汽车和钢铁关税。 6. 俄罗斯表示，伊朗和其他国家有合法权利发展自己的核能项目。 3. 哈萨克斯坦考虑履行欧佩克+减产义务的选项。 4. 欧盟委员会：委员会将于6月提议，到2027年底逐步停止所有剩余的俄罗斯天然气和液化天然气进 口。 5. EIA下调今明两年美、布两油价格预期；上调今年全球原油需求预期，下调明年预期。 ...

近日，秘鲁总统博鲁阿尔特宣布，该国日前发生矿工集体遇害事件的帕塔斯地区从即日起实施宵禁，以 应对当地日益猖獗的犯罪活动。根据宵禁令，帕塔斯地区的所有采矿活动暂停30天。 作为全球第三大铜生产国，秘鲁2024年铜产量为273.6万吨，约占全球总产量的10%。光大期货有色金 属研究总监展大鹏告诉期货日报记者，此次事件发生地帕塔斯地区并未直接涉及大型铜矿，但秘鲁政府 宣布暂停该地区采矿活动30天，可能加剧市场对秘鲁铜矿供应稳定性的担忧。铜精矿资源紧张叠加再生 铜供应不足，供应端忧虑再起使铜价下方支撑较强。 "不过，该地区以生产金银为主，铜等其他金属相对较少。贵金属价格主要受投资逻辑拉动，该地区生 产暂停对贵金属价格影响相对有限。"中泰期货有色金属分析师彭定桂补充说。 值得注意的是，一季度国内铜消费表现超预期，表观消费实现了8%的增长。李瑶瑶分析，从4月国内精 铜产量及去库幅度来推算，预计4月表观消费进一步超预期增长。废铜供应偏紧，提振了精铜消费。不 过，5月之后国内铜消费将季节性回落，需求端对铜价的提振力度减弱，铜价或面临高位回落压力。 展望后市，展大鹏认为，在宏观和基本面共振下，铜暂时看不到大幅看空的理由，这可能 ...

Core Viewpoint - Saudi Arabia will engage in discussions and sign agreements with the United States regarding mining and mineral resources [1] Group 1 - The Saudi Cabinet has announced plans to collaborate with the U.S. in the mining sector [1] - This initiative indicates a strategic move to enhance cooperation in mineral resource management [1] - The agreement aims to bolster economic ties between Saudi Arabia and the United States [1]

国内新闻： 1. 国家加大投入支持长远性数据基础设施建设。 2."五一"假期全国重点零售和餐饮企业销售额同比增长6.3%。 3. 央行行长潘功胜出席并主持东盟与中日韩财长和央行行长会。 4. 港元汇率再触强方兑换保证，香港金管局三度共注资1166.14亿港元。 昨日今晨重要新闻汇总（5月6日） ③白宫称尚未就电影关税做出最终决定 昨日今晨重要新闻汇总（5月6日） 国内新闻： 1. 国家加大投入支持长远性数据基础设施建设。 2."五一"假期全国重点零售和餐饮企业销售额同比增长6.3%。 3. 央行行长潘功胜出席并主持东盟与中日韩财长和央行行长会。 4. 港元汇率再触强方兑换保证，香港金管局三度共注资1166.14亿港元。 国际新闻： 1. 关税- ①据悉印度提议对一定数量的美国汽车零部件和钢铁实行对等零关税 ②知情人士：美国拒绝了日本提出的全面豁免10%的对等关税的要求 ④特朗普：将在未来两周内宣布对医药产品的关税措施。 2. OpenAI放弃转型为营利性公司。 3. 克宫：普京接受莫迪的访印邀请。 4. 刚果（金）政府与反政府武装开启新一轮对话。 5. 苹果准备分四部分发行公司美元债，规模未公布。 6. 美国 ...

1. 关税-①据悉印度提议对一定数量的美国汽车零部件和钢铁实行对等零关税 ②知情人士：美国拒绝了 日本提出的全面豁免10%的对等关税的要求 ③白宫称尚未就电影关税做出最终决定 ④特朗普：将在未 来两周内宣布对医药产品的关税措施。 14. 中东-①伊朗外长：如果目的是防止核武器，与美国的协议是可以达成的 ②以色列对也门进行空袭 ③以色列总理：新的加沙行动将会是一次密集的军事行动。将对加沙的人口进行迁移 ④伊朗否认指使 胡塞武装袭击以色列。 1. 国家加大投入支持长远性数据基础设施建设。 2. "五一"假期全国重点零售和餐饮企业销售额同比增长6.3%。 3. 央行行长潘功胜出席并主持东盟与中日韩财长和央行行长会。 4. 港元汇率再触强方兑换保证，香港金管局4日共注资1166.14亿港元。 2. OpenAI放弃转型为营利性公司。 3. 克宫：普京接受莫迪的访印邀请。 4. 刚果（金）政府与反政府武装开启新一轮对话。 5. 苹果准备分四部分发行公司美元债，规模未公布。 6. 美国提供1000美元津贴鼓励移民自愿离境 比强制驱逐"划算"。 7. 德国基民盟、基社盟和社民党签署联合协议，候任总理默茨誓言"改革德国"。 ...

秘鲁总统：将在矿工被杀区域设立军事基地。将在受暴力影响地区暂停30天采矿活动。 ...

美国关税传来最新消息。 刚刚，据日本共同社报道，美国拒绝对日本予以"对等关税"全面豁免。另据彭博社报道，在与美国的贸易谈判 中，印度提议在对等的基础上，对一定数量的钢铁、汽车零部件和药品实行零关税。 与此同时，美国宏观数据也持续扰动市场。今晚，美国供应管理协会（ISM）公布的数据显示，美国4月ISM 服务业PMI指数录得51.6，重回扩张区间，大幅高于预期的50.2。分析称，数据表明，在美国制造业受关税影 响持续收缩的背景下，服务业仍表现稳健。 受此影响，美股三大指数跌幅收窄，道指率先转涨，截至发稿，道指涨0.14%，纳指跌幅收窄至0.45%。美国 财政部长贝森特在最新的讲话中表示，美国股市具有"抗脆弱性"，美国将巩固"全球资本中心"的地位。 关税的变数 北京时间5日晚间，日本共同社援引知情人士的话报道，在最近的关税谈判中，美国拒绝对日本予以"对等 关税"全面豁免。 消息人士透露，上周华盛顿会晤期间，美国财政部长贝森特等美国官员告知日本首席谈判代表赤泽亮正，特朗 普政府只愿意考虑降低14%的特定关税，该关税已暂停实施至今年7月初。但日本一直主张彻底取消"对等关 税"，包括对汽车加征25%的关税以及对钢铁和铝加 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall inventory cycle in the U.S. is likely transitioning towards an active destocking phase by 2025, with significant implications for various industries [1][2][3]. Overall Inventory Cycle - In February, U.S. total inventory increased by 2.45% year-on-year, compared to a previous value of 2.25%. Sales increased by 3.45% year-on-year, down from 3.69% [2][3]. - The inventory cycle remains in a passive restocking phase due to "import grabbing," with Q1 net imports increasing by $359.26 billion year-on-year, of which over one-third ($129.71 billion) converted into inventory [2][3]. Industry Inventory Cycle - Among 14 major industry categories, 8 are in a passive restocking phase, including upstream chemical products, building materials, midstream electrical equipment, and downstream durable consumer goods [4]. - Historical inventory percentiles show that total inventory is at a historical percentile of 30.5%, with building materials at 71.5%, automotive parts at 67.8%, and paper and forestry products at 53.8% [4]. Upstream Inventory Status - Half of the upstream industries are in passive restocking, while the other half are in active destocking [5][6][7][8]. - Specific sectors like oil, natural gas, and consumer fuels are in active destocking as of February 2025 [5]. Midstream Inventory Status - Inventory status is mixed, with paper and forestry products in active restocking, while electrical equipment and transportation are in passive restocking [9][10]. - Mechanical manufacturing is currently in passive destocking [9]. Downstream Inventory Status - The current passive restocking phase is prolonged, indicating potential "import grabbing" demand [11]. - Automotive parts are transitioning to active destocking as of February 2025, while other sectors like household durable goods and textiles remain in passive restocking [11].

Group 1 - The overall industrial economy in the province is showing a rapid recovery, with a total industrial added value growth rate of 5.3% in the first quarter, an increase of 7.1 percentage points compared to the previous year [1] - The growth rate of industrial added value for large-scale industries reached 6.1%, exceeding the initial target by 2.6 percentage points [1] - In March, the output value of key emerging industries grew by 10.3% year-on-year, surpassing the overall industrial growth rate of 8.1% [1] Group 2 - Industrial fixed asset investment growth reached 14.4%, 2.4 percentage points higher than the national average, with manufacturing investment growth at 17.5%, exceeding the national level by 8.4 percentage points [1] - Industrial technological transformation investment growth was notably high at 57.9%, ranking fifth in the country, while manufacturing technological transformation investment growth reached 61.9% [1] - The mining industry added value growth rate was 6.3%, slightly above the national average, while the manufacturing industry growth was 6.2%, and the electricity, heat, gas, and water supply industry growth was 5.4%, exceeding the national average by 3.5 percentage points [1] Group 3 - Among the top ten industries, the equipment industry led with an 18.9% growth rate, 8 percentage points higher than the national average, while the energy industry grew by 5.9% [2] - The coal mining and washing industry saw a significant increase in added value growth of 10.1%, while the food industry grew by 5.2%, the petrochemical industry by 2.2%, the metallurgy industry by 5.4%, and the building materials industry by a remarkable 31.5% [2] - The provincial government aims to focus on stabilizing industrial growth, transforming methods, adjusting structures, improving quality, and increasing efficiency to achieve effective qualitative and reasonable quantitative growth in the industrial economy [2]

Group 1 - Ghana announced a ban on foreign access to its gold market in April 2025, highlighting a severe water crisis despite its vast gold resources [1][3] - The country, which produces 130 tons of gold annually, faces a paradox of wealth and poverty, with a GDP per capita of only $2,500 and 40% of children suffering from chronic diarrhea due to contaminated water [3][8] - Illegal mining has led to a significant drop in groundwater levels, exacerbating the water crisis in a country with an annual rainfall of 2,000 mm [5][6] Group 2 - Chinese engineering teams have successfully drilled 1,000 wells in 832 villages, providing daily water supply of 200,000 cubic meters, benefiting approximately 500,000 people [6][8] - Chinese investments in infrastructure, such as the construction of a power plant supplying 15% of Ghana's electricity, have created 36,000 jobs and improved water access [8][9] - Ghana's external debt stands at $55 billion, accounting for 80% of its GDP, with a 60% currency depreciation and a 50% inflation rate in 2025 [8][9] Group 3 - Illegal mining has destroyed 4,726 hectares of land, leading to severe mercury pollution in local rivers, with projections indicating Ghana may need to import freshwater by 2030 [9][11] - In response to environmental challenges, Chinese companies are initiating green projects, including a 200 MW solar power plant expected to reduce CO2 emissions by 240,000 tons annually [11][13] - The Ghanaian government is shifting towards a "gold for technology" model, focusing on local capacity building and technology transfer, with over 400 local engineers trained [11][14] Group 4 - The mining sector is dominated by oligarchs who control 70% of gold revenues, complicating efforts to combat illegal mining and corruption [13][14] - The historical context of colonial exploitation continues to impact Ghana's economic structure, with a need for systemic change to ensure equitable resource distribution [3][14]