| 有色及贵金属日度数据简报 | 2025/7/14 | 莫骁雄 | 王蒙 | 李先飞 | Z0012691 | Z0002529 | Z0019413 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国泰君安期货研究所有 | jixianfei@gtht.com | moxiaoxiong@gtht.com | wangrong2@gtht.com | 色及贵金属组 | 张再宇 | 王宗源(联系人) | 刘雨萱 | Z0021479 | F03142619 | Z0020476 | | | | | | | liuyuxuan@gtht.com | zhangzaiyu@gtht.com | wangzongyuan@gtht.com | 黄金 (AU) | 今天 | 前一交易日 | 上月 | 上周 | | | | | | | | | | 指标名称 | 2025/7/14 | 2025/7/11 | 2025/7/7 | 2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [9][15]. Core Views - The company is projected to achieve significant revenue growth driven by the expansion of membership channels and new product launches, with a forecasted revenue of 7.46-7.98 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 40.91%-50.77% [4][5]. - The company is focusing on optimizing channel structures and innovating products, with membership supermarkets and snack wholesale channels becoming key growth drivers [5][6]. - The report highlights a positive outlook for the company's profitability, with net profit for the first half of 2025 expected to be between 1.05-1.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.91%-47.57% [4][6]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The latest closing price is 12.43 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 5.3 billion yuan [3]. - The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 13.3% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 33.59 [3]. Financial Performance - The company anticipates a revenue forecast adjustment for 2025-2027 to 16.97/20.06/22.49 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 43.51%/18.22%/12.11% [7]. - The expected net profit for the same period is revised to 2.21/2.65/2.99 billion yuan, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 40.42%/20.0%/12.91% [9]. Profitability and Cost Structure - The report notes that the shift in channel structure has impacted gross margins, with a higher proportion of low-margin sales through membership supermarkets and snack channels [6]. - Despite the increase in absolute expenses due to brand investments in online and traditional channels, the overall expense ratio is expected to decline [6].

Group 1 - The company forecasts a net profit of between 190 million yuan and 260 million yuan for the first half of 2025, indicating a turnaround from a loss in the previous year [1][2] - The expected net profit attributable to the parent company, excluding non-recurring gains and losses, is projected to be between 115 million yuan and 185 million yuan [1][2] - In the same period last year, the company reported a net loss of 34.05 million yuan and a net loss of 32.33 million yuan after excluding non-recurring gains and losses [1][2] Group 2 - The main reasons for the turnaround include increased sales in feed, poultry, and hogs, along with lower prices for key feed raw materials such as soybean meal and corn, and a decrease in breeding costs for hogs and poultry [2]

Group 1: Natural Rubber Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View Short - term rubber prices rebound due to macro - sentiment, but the weak fundamental expectation remains unchanged. Adopt a short - selling approach on rallies, and consider short positions in the 14,000 - 14,500 range. Pay attention to raw material supply in each production area and US tariff changes [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The price of Yunnan state - owned standard rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai increased by 100 yuan/ton to 14,350 yuan/ton, with a 0.70% increase. The basis of whole - milk rubber (switched to the 2509 contract) rose by 145 to - 10, a 93.55% increase. Other raw material prices showed various changes [2]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 10 to - 860, a 1.15% increase; the 1 - 5 spread increased by 15 to - 40, a 27.27% increase; the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 25 to 900, a - 2.70% decrease [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, Thailand's rubber production increased by 166,500 tons to 272,200 tons, a 157.52% increase. The operating rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires increased. The domestic tire production decreased slightly, while the tire export volume increased. The import volume of natural rubber decreased [2]. - **Inventory Changes**: The bonded - area inventory increased by 14,802 tons to 632,090 tons, a 2.40% increase. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE increased by 7,258 tons to 36,994 tons, a 24.41% increase [2]. Group 2: Glass and Soda Ash Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View For soda ash, although the futures price rebounded due to macro - sentiment and spot trading improved, the supply - demand situation remains in an obvious surplus, and inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to wait and look for short - selling opportunities after the sentiment fades. For glass, although the futures price is strong due to macro - sentiment, the demand is under pressure in the off - season, and the industry needs capacity reduction. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of glass in North China, East China, Central China, and South China showed small changes. The prices of glass futures contracts 2505 and 2509 increased slightly [4]. - **Soda - ash - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of soda ash in different regions remained stable. The prices of soda ash futures contracts 2505 and 2509 decreased slightly [4]. - **Supply Data**: The operating rate of soda ash remained unchanged, and the weekly production was stable. The daily melting volume of float glass increased slightly, while the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass remained unchanged [4]. - **Inventory Data**: The glass market inventory decreased by 198,300 square meters to 67.102 million square meters, a - 2.87% decrease. The soda - ash factory inventory and delivery - warehouse inventory increased [4]. - **Real - estate Data**: The year - on - year changes in new construction area, construction area, completion area, and sales area showed different trends [4]. Group 3: Log Futures Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View In the fundamental aspect, the demand for logs enters the off - season from June to August. The arrival volume remains low, and the supply is expected to decrease seasonally. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. Be vigilant against emotional price increases [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The prices of log futures contracts 2507, 2509, and 2511 decreased slightly. The prices of some spot logs decreased, while the outer - market quotation increased [5]. - **Supply**: The port shipment volume increased by 228,000 cubic meters to 1.955 million cubic meters, a 13.20% increase. The number of ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 5 to 58, a - 7.94% decrease [5]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of coniferous logs in China decreased by 130,000 cubic meters to 3.23 million cubic meters, a - 3.87% decrease [5]. - **Demand**: The average daily outbound volume increased by 12,000 cubic meters to 669,000 cubic meters [5]. Group 4: Industrial Silicon Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View The price of industrial silicon increased due to the expectation of anti - involution policies, with less impact from supply - demand fundamentals. The supply is expected to increase further. Technically, it shows a strong - side fluctuation. In the short - term, it is expected to remain strong, but short - selling can be considered if large - scale enterprises resume production or the price of polysilicon drops. Risk management is recommended [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The prices of different grades of industrial silicon in East China and Xinjiang increased. The basis of different grades decreased [6]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts showed various changes [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the national industrial silicon production increased by 20,000 tons to 327,700 tons, a 6.50% increase. The production of related downstream products also changed [6]. - **Inventory Changes**: The factory - warehouse inventory in Xinjiang decreased by 26,200 tons to 123,900 tons, a - 17.46% decrease. The social inventory decreased slightly [6]. Group 5: Polysilicon Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View The price of polysilicon increased rapidly under the expectation of policies, but the market is cautious about the new price. There is a large discount in the futures market, and there is room for price repair. The market may fluctuate greatly next week. Attention should be paid to the price of P - type cauliflower - like polysilicon and risk management [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The average prices of different types of polysilicon remained stable, while the basis of some types increased slightly [7]. - **Futures Prices and Inter - month Spreads**: The prices of polysilicon futures contracts and the spreads between different contracts showed various changes [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: The weekly production of silicon wafers and polysilicon decreased. The monthly production of polysilicon increased, while the import and export volumes changed [7]. - **Inventory Changes**: The polysilicon inventory increased by 4,000 tons to 276,000 tons, a 1.47% increase. The silicon - wafer inventory decreased [7].

碳酸锂周报 2024 年 7 月 14 日 情绪扰动临尾 锂价震荡偏弱 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 一、市场数据 | 指标 | 2025/7/11 | 2025/7/4 | 变动量 | 变动幅度 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 进口锂原矿：1.3%-2.2% | 113 | 110 | 3.00 | 2.73% | 美元/吨 | | 进口锂精矿：5.5%-6% | 650 | 644 | 6.00 | 0.93% | 美元/吨 | | 国产锂精矿：5.5%-6% | 650 | 644 | 6 | 0.93% | 元/吨 | | 即期汇率：美元兑人民币 | 7.171 | 7. ...

Core Viewpoint - The Dalian Municipal Market Supervision Administration has announced the results of food safety inspections, revealing that out of 499 batches tested across 11 categories, 10 batches were found to be non-compliant with food safety standards [2][3]. Group 1: Inspection Overview - The inspection covered 11 categories including grain products, edible oils, dairy products, snacks, and health foods, totaling 499 batches [2]. - A total of 10 batches were identified as non-compliant, prompting further investigation and action by local market supervision authorities [2][3]. Group 2: Standards and Testing - The inspections were conducted based on various national food safety standards, including GB 2762-2022 for contaminant limits and GB 2760-2014 for food additives [3]. - Specific testing parameters included peroxide value, benzo[a]pyrene, and various pesticide residues, among others [3]. Group 3: Non-compliant Products - The non-compliant products included items from two production enterprises and involved 10 sampling units [3]. - Examples of non-compliant findings included pesticide residues exceeding allowable limits in agricultural products, such as 0.041 mg/kg of dichlorvos in ginger, which exceeds the limit of 0.02 mg/kg [4].

个股表现 2024-07 2024-09 2024-12 2025-02 2025-04 2025-07 2% 18% 34% 50% 66% 82% 98% 114% 130% 妙可蓝多 食品饮料 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价（元） | 28.34 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）5.12 | / 5.12 | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）145 | / 145 | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 32.69 / 11.78 | | 资产负债率(%) | 42.9% | | 市盈率 | 125.40 | | 第一大股东 | 内蒙古蒙牛乳业(集团) | | 股份有限公司 | | 研究所 分析师:蔡雪昱 SAC 登记编号:S1340522070001 Email:caixueyu@cnpsec.com 分析师:张子健 SAC 登记编号:S1340524050001 Email:zhangzijian@cnpsec.com 证券研究报告：食品饮料 | 公司点评报告 发布时间：2025-07-14 股票投资评级 买入|首次覆盖 妙可蓝多(600882) 利 ...

Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between South China Agricultural University and Yunfu City aims to enhance investment cooperation in agriculture and related sectors, promoting a new model of integration between academia, government, and industry [2][3][8]. Group 1: Event Overview - The "Investment Matching and Exchange Conference" was held on July 10, co-hosted by South China Agricultural University and Yunfu City Government, with over 200 representatives from more than 140 alumni enterprises attending [2][5]. - The conference focused on aligning demands and promoting investment cooperation in areas such as specialty agricultural industrialization, deep processing of agricultural products, and ecological cultural tourism [3][4]. Group 2: Strategic Goals - The university aims to strengthen the integration of production, education, and research, talent cultivation, platform construction, and collaboration between government and academia through four main pathways [7]. - The goal is to create a new development model that integrates "universities + government + alumni + industry," leveraging alumni networks to foster deeper and broader cooperation with Yunfu City [8][9]. Group 3: Local Government Support - Yunfu City expressed its commitment to providing an optimal business environment for alumni enterprises, ensuring they can effectively operate and succeed in the region [11][12]. - The local investment promotion bureau highlighted the advantages of the agricultural industry in Yunfu and the supportive policies available for investors [15][16]. Group 4: Collaboration Outcomes - Representatives from alumni enterprises, including Wens Foodstuff Group, shared successful experiences of collaboration between schools, companies, and farmers [19]. - Several projects reached cooperation intentions during the conference, with participants emphasizing the role of alumni networks in advancing the high-quality development of modern agriculture in Yunfu [21][22].

研究报告 油脂周报 市场平静，油脂震荡整理 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 农产品板块研究员：姚战旗 期货从业资格证号：F0205601 投资咨询资格证号：Z0000286 电话：13609351809 邮箱：445012260@qq.com 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】： 7 榈油方面：马来西亚棕榈油局（MPOB）公布的数据显示，6 月马棕产量 169.2 万吨，出口 125.94 万吨，库存 203 万吨，整体 来看，6 月马棕出口明显低于预期，但 6 月库存环比略增。马棕 榈油上涨 2.78%。 报告日期：2025 年 07 月 14 星期一 豆油方面：本月将 2025/26 年度美国大豆产量下调 500 万蒲 至 43.35 亿蒲，同时维持大豆单产 52.5 蒲/英亩不变。将美国大 豆压榨上调 5000 万蒲至 25.4 亿蒲，因生物燃料行业的豆油需求 上升。将 2025/26 年度美国大豆出口下调 7000 万蒲至 17.45 亿蒲， 因国内需求增长，阿根廷和乌克兰出口强劲。美国大豆期末库存 上调 ...

2025.07. 14 本文字数：2623，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 | 第一财经 高雅 程程 当地时间7月12日，美国总统特朗普在发送给墨西哥总统辛鲍姆的信函中宣布，将自8月1日起对从墨西 哥进口商品征收30%关税。此前，特朗普于10日称，将自8月1日起对从加拿大进口的商品征收35%关 税。 特朗普在信中指责墨西哥在遏制北美地区毒品走私方面成效不足。在此前致加拿大政府的信函中，特朗 普同样批评加方在芬太尼管控问题上行动不力。此外，特朗普还警告两国不要对此次加税进行报复、鼓 励对方企业迁入美国、如对方积极配合可能对税率进行调整等。 上海国际问题研究院外交政策研究所所长牛海彬接受第一财经记者采访时表示， 特朗普此次对加拿大 和墨西哥加征关税措施以芬太尼管控问题为主要由头。不过，他表示，此次加征关税措施应当不影响符 合美墨加协定（USMCA）规则的产品，因此实际影响范围相对有限。 威胁与诉求 截至7月12日，特朗普已向24个国家及欧盟发出信函，相较于4月宣布的税率，此次被上调税率的经济 体为少数。 目前日本、马来西亚和文莱的税率上升1个百分点，欧盟和加拿大上升10个百分点，墨西哥则上调5个 百分点，巴西则增加了4 ...