| | 黑色产业数据每日监测（6.5） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 主力合约收盘价 涨跌 涨跌幅 现货价格 | | 基差 | | 螺纹 | 2959 4 0.14% | 3120 | 161 | | 热卷 | 3077 -6 -0.19% | 3160 | 83 | | 铁矿 | 701 -1 -0.14% | 740 | 39 | | 焦煤 | 757 12.5 1.68% | 910 | 153 | | 焦炭 | 1342 7.5 0.56% 1307 -35 | | | | | 市场概况 | | | | | 今日黑色系商品期货整体整体企稳。螺纹收于2959元/吨，上涨0.14%；热卷 | | | | | 主力合约收于3077元/吨，下跌0.16%；铁矿今日主力合约收于701元/吨；双 | | | | | 焦今天收涨。 | | | | | 市场分析 | | | | | 产业链来看，传统季节性淡季来临，叠加全国中高考限制部分地区噪音作 | | | | | 业，使得终端需求持续走弱。本周五大钢材品种产量微降0.47万吨，库存微 | | | | | 降1.79万 ...

Core Insights - The China Commodity Price Index (CBPI) for May 2025 is reported at 110.3 points, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.3% but a year-on-year decrease of 7.2% [1][3] - The index shows signs of stabilization and improvement due to a temporary easing of US-China trade tariffs, which has restored some market confidence [1][3] - Despite the recovery in global commodity prices, external uncertainties and insufficient effective demand remain significant challenges for various industries [1][3] Price Index Summary - The CBPI increased from 109.9 points in April to 110.3 points in May, with a month-on-month rise of 0.4 points [3] - The energy price index decreased to 96.3 points, down 2.1% month-on-month and down 14.9% year-on-year [3][4] - The chemical price index rebounded to 102.8 points, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5% but a year-on-year decline of 13.7% [3][4] - The black metal price index fell to 78.7 points, down 0.8% month-on-month and down 11.4% year-on-year [3][4] - The non-ferrous metal price index rose slightly to 127.7 points, up 0.9% month-on-month but down 5.2% year-on-year [3][4] - The agricultural product price index increased to 98.2 points, with a month-on-month rise of 0.5% and a year-on-year increase of 2% [3][4] Commodity Price Movements - Among 50 monitored commodities, 32 (64%) saw price declines while 17 (34%) experienced price increases in May [5] - The top three commodities with price increases were PTA (up 9.5%), ethylene glycol (up 4.6%), and corn (up 4.3%) [5] - The largest price declines were observed in industrial silicon (down 10.2%), lithium carbonate (down 10%), and soybean meal (down 9.9%) [5]

Core Insights - The May 2023 China Commodity Price Index (CCPI) stands at 110.3 points, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.3% but a year-on-year decrease of 7.2% [1][3] - The index indicates a stabilization trend in commodity prices, with specific sectors showing varied performance, such as a slight increase in non-ferrous metal prices and a rebound in chemical prices [1][6] Price Index Summary - The non-ferrous price index rose to 127.7 points, up 0.9% month-on-month but down 5.2% year-on-year [3][4] - The agricultural product price index increased to 98.2 points, with a month-on-month rise of 0.5% and a year-on-year increase of 2% [3][4] - The chemical price index rebounded to 102.8 points, up 0.5% month-on-month but down 13.7% year-on-year [3][4] - The black metal price index fell to 78.7 points, down 0.8% month-on-month and down 11.4% year-on-year [3][4] - The energy price index decreased to 96.3 points, down 2.1% month-on-month and down 14.9% year-on-year [3][4] - The mineral price index dropped to 75.6 points, down 2.2% month-on-month and down 8.3% year-on-year [3][4] Commodity Price Movements - Among 50 monitored commodities, 32 (64%) saw price declines while 17 (34%) experienced price increases [4][6] - The top three commodities with price increases were PTA (up 9.5%), ethylene glycol (up 4.6%), and corn (up 4.3%) [4][6] - The largest price declines were observed in industrial silicon (down 10.2%), lithium carbonate (down 10%), and soybean meal (down 9.9%) [4][6] Market Analysis - Analysts attribute the rise in non-ferrous prices to improved demand expectations due to easing US-China tariff policies [5][6] - The agricultural price index's increase is linked to stable downstream consumer demand, with corn prices rising due to increased market demand and short-term supply constraints [6][7] - The overall market sentiment remains cautious due to persistent external uncertainties and insufficient effective demand in certain sectors [1][7]

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2025 年 6 月 5 日 5 月 PMI 数据点评 内、外需表现分化 5 月内、外需表现分化。外贸环境短期改善，对 5 月制造企业生产意愿有所 提振。高技术制造业及高技术服务业景气度均处于扩张区间。 5 月制造业产、需表现均有回升。2025 年 5 月，制造业 PMI 指数为 49.5%， 环比（4 月，下同）回升 0.5 个百分点；制造企业景气度有所回升，但仍 处于收缩区间。多个重要细分项环比有所回升，5 月新订单指数 49.8%， 环比回升 0.6 个百分点，其中，新出口订单指数环比回升 2.8 个百分点， 实现 47.5%，外需是制造业需求回暖的重要贡献项。5 月生产指数实现 50.7%，环比回升 0.9 个百分点，重回扩张区间；原材料库存指数为 47.4%， 环比回升 0.4 个百分点；产成品库存指数为 46.5%，环比下滑 0.8 个百分 点；从业人员指数为 48.1%，环比回升 0.2 个百分点；供货商配送时间指 数为 50.0%，环比下滑 0.2 个百分点。 企业预期方面，制造业生产经营活动预期指数为 52.5%，环比回升 0.4 个 百分点。5 月 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that there is a mixed performance in the prices of major commodities in China, with some sectors showing recovery while others continue to decline [1][2][3] - In May, the China Commodity Price Index was reported at 110.3 points, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, indicating a slight recovery in the market [3] - Among 50 monitored commodities, 17 showed a month-on-month price increase, with the non-ferrous price index at 127.7 points, up 0.9%, and the chemical price index rebounding by 0.5% [1] Group 2 - Agricultural product prices have risen for five consecutive months, demonstrating resilience in the agricultural sector and its role in stabilizing supply and prices [1] - Conversely, black, mineral, and energy price indices continue to decline, highlighting persistent issues of insufficient effective demand in certain industries [1] - Experts suggest that to solidify economic recovery, the government should increase public investment in infrastructure and services to boost market demand and enterprise orders [2]

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年06月05日 (原油) 隔夜国际油价回落，布伦特08合约跌1.07%。有消息显示沙特希望OPEC+在8月、9月仍以41.1万桶/ 天的速度增产,并将7月销往亚洲的轻质原油官价升贴水下调20每分/桶，其抢占市场份额的意图愈 发明显。此外，此前加拿大野火引发的供应中断已在周三部分恢复，上周EIA汽油和精炼油库存均超 预期增加暗示需求无法匹配炼厂供应的增加。此前我们谈到OPEC+抢占市场份额策略下的快速增产 行为令源自李节性及地缘犹动的供需偏紧难以持续,继续关注旺季预期、地缘抗动被充分交易后的 再次做空机会。 【责金属】 隔夜黄金偏强震荡, 白银波动有限。美国5月ADP就业人数新增3.7万人大幅低于预期和前值,非制 造业PMI降至49.9为2024年6月以来的最低，关税背景下经济承压，聚焦周五非农指引。美联储方面 近期表态谨慎,特朗普再次催促降息。贵金属处于震荡局面,金价背靠3000美元强支撑维持回调买 入思路。 【铜】 隔夜伦铜阳线震荡、形态稳固，伦铜加速去库，物流转向美国。美国ADP就业与服务业PMI疲软，但 联储本月降息概率低。国内 ...

2025年06月05日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：板块预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：市场情绪提振，宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：市场情绪提振，宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：黑色板块共振，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：黑色板块共振，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：三轮提降开启，盘面震荡偏强 | 7 | | 焦煤：消息扰动，盘面震荡偏强 | 7 | | 动力煤：底部阶段企稳运行 | 9 | | 原木：弱势震荡 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 5 日 铁矿石：板块预期反复，宽幅震荡 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 1. 29% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | 12509 | | 704. ...

日度报告——综合晨报 美国 5 月 ADP"爆冷"！就业人数骤降至 3.7 万人 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-06-05 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 美国 5 月 ADP"爆冷"！就业人数骤降至 3.7 万人 最新的美国经济数据不及预期，美国经济下行压力加剧，美元 短期走弱。 宏观策略（美国股指期货） 美国 5 月 ISM 服务业 PMI 指数近一年来首次萎缩 经济下行风险不断积累，但在降息预期的支撑下，市场风险偏 好并未明显回落，美股延续震荡走势。 综 黑色金属（焦煤/焦炭） 合 河北炼焦煤市场持稳运行 晨 报 短期来看，焦煤基本面暂无明显变化，更多是交易基差和情绪 修复，后续需关注供应变化 有色金属（锌） 上海锌：下游企业畏高，成交表现较差 CSZTP 发布 3Q25 进口加工费指导区间于 80-100 美元/干吨，对 应国内 TC 在 4000-4500 元/吨，预计年内加工费仍有不小上行空 间。 能源化工（纯碱） 6 月 4 日华北市场纯碱价格行情 今日纯碱期价涨幅较大，一方面受益于市场整体风险偏好回升， 另一方面也是联碱法成本附近本身存在一定支撑。 | 许惠敏 | 资深分析师 ...

分析师：柏逸凡 登记编号：S0890524100001 分析师：程秉哲 登记编号：S0890522110001 投资要点 本报告统计时间为2025.05.26-2025.05.30。 抱团风险有所上升，静待风险释放后再行布局。近期市场仍主要抱团在银行避险，或医药、核 电、新消费等题材当中，不过高位抱团题材轮动加快、分歧加剧，面临的调整压力上升，需等待 调整压力释放后再行布局，短期仍然适度偏防守或逢反弹止盈，后续可继续关注银行、题材（新 消费、科技、医药、化工等）及宽基指数的布局机会。 权益市场， 上周，市场风格方面，小盘成长风格占优；风格波动方面，大小盘风格波动及价值成 长风格波动均有所上升，显示当前市场风格较不稳定。市场结构方面，上周，行业指数超额收益 离散度下降至近一年低位，成分股上涨比例略有下降，行业轮动速度持平上期；交易集中度方 面，个股集中度与行业集中度略有上升。市场活跃度方面，上周，市场波动率略有上升，但换手 率继续下行，尤其是上证50换手率降低至历史较低水平。 商品市场方面， 上周，趋势强度表现依然分化，能化、黑色板块延续其延续性，贵金属、有色板 块趋势性上升；基差动量方面，黑色板块基差动量上升 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 6 月 4 日） 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | | 动力煤（元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/06/03 | -191.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/05/30 | -190.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/05/29 | -190.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/05/28 | -190.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/05/27 | -190.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 原油基差 基差（右） 原油现货价:中国胜利 期货收盘价(活跃合约):INE原油 -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 450 5 ...