2025 年 06 月 30 日 投资策略 估值与盈利周观察——6 月第 4 期：普涨 市场估值普涨，创业板指、成长居前。上周宽基指数估值普涨，创业 板指表现最优，红利表现最弱。从 PE、PB 偏离度的角度看，食品饮料、 农林牧渔、公用事业等行业估值较为便宜。向前看，本周市场 ERP 下降， 处于 21 年以来历史均值附近。 市场表现：微盘股、创业板指、成长表现最好；红利、消费、稳定表 现最弱。 行业表现：计算机、国防军工、非银金融涨幅前三，石油石化、食品 饮料、交通运输表现最弱。 相对估值：创业板指/沪深 300 相对 PE 上升，创业板值/沪深 300 相 对 PB 上升。 全 A ERP：ERP 较前一周下降，处于 21 年以来历史均值附近。 指数 PEG & PB-ROE: 红利 PEG 值最小，科创 50 风格 PB-ROE 值最小。 大类行业估值：金融地产估值高于 50%历史分位，原材料、设备制造、 工业服务、交通运输、消费、科技历史估值处于 50%左右及以下水平。 一级行业估值：各行业估值普涨，非银金融、农林牧渔、家电、食品 饮料估值处于近一年低位。 热门概念：无人驾驶、半导体材料、培育砖石、第 ...

6月30日，A股市场整体上涨。 截至收盘，上证指数收报3444.43点，上涨0.59%；深证成指收报10465.12点，上涨0.83%；创业板指收 报2153.01点，上涨1.35%。两市合计成交14868.57亿元，较上一交易日减少542.44亿元。 2. 沪深300主力资金净流出近27亿元 沪深300今日主力资金净流出26.76亿元，创业板净流出8.66亿元。 | | | 各板块最近五个交易日主力资金净流入数据(亿元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 沪深300 | 创业板 | 科创板 | | 2025-6-30 | -26.76 | -8. 66 | -9. 17 | | 2025-6-27 | 11.90 | -99. 35 | -3.08 | | 2025-6-26 | -52. 46 | -147. 39 | 1. 39 | | 2025-6-25 | 19.12 | 37. 69 | -14. 67 | | 2025-6-24 | 18. 85 | 29.77 | -12. 35 | | | | 尾盘资金净流入数据(亿元) | | | 2025-6-30 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a positive trend today, with major indices mostly rising. The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.59% to close at 3444.43 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.83% to 10465.12 points. The Sci-Tech 50 Index saw a gain of 1.54%, closing at 1003.41 points, and the ChiNext Index increased by 1.35% to 2153.01 points. Overall, 4054 stocks rose, 1126 fell, and 237 remained unchanged across the market [1]. - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 148.69 billion yuan, a decrease of 54.24 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1]. Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, all sectors except for non-bank financials, banking, and transportation saw gains today. The leading sectors included defense and military industry, media, telecommunications, electronics, textile and apparel, and electric power equipment [1]. Sector Highlights - The top-performing concept sectors today included military informationization, CRO, aircraft carriers, BC batteries, photolithography machines, large aircraft, military-civilian integration, the top ten military industrial groups, the AVIC system, commercial aerospace, general aviation, online gaming, rare earth permanent magnets, low-altitude economy, and photolithography factories [1].

Group 1: Eurozone Focus - The European Central Bank (ECB) appears satisfied with the current inflation situation, indicating no necessity for further rate cuts in the second half of the year [9][11][14] - The "Rearmament of Europe" initiative is expected to benefit industries such as traditional military manufacturing, dual-use high technology, strategic resources, and energy security, with a focus on the aerospace and defense sectors [20][22] - Rheinmetall and Airbus are identified as key beneficiaries of the "Rearmament of Europe" plan, with Rheinmetall projected to see a 20% revenue growth due to increased defense spending [22][21] Group 2: Indian Market Focus - The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut the key repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.5%, exceeding market expectations, while maintaining a neutral stance due to limited growth support [31][29] - There is an anticipated further rate cut of 25-50 basis points in the current fiscal year, driven by moderate growth prospects and weak private consumption [34][32] - The Indian stock market is currently overvalued, with the Nifty index's earnings per share forecast being significantly downgraded, leading to cautious short-term return expectations [37][35] Group 3: Thai Market Focus - Political instability in Thailand is hindering economic recovery, with significant pressure on the stock market and a cautious outlook on corporate earnings [41][51] - The Bank of Thailand (BOT) has maintained the policy rate at 1.75% but is expected to lower it to 1.25% later this year to support the economy [47][46] - CP All and Minor International are highlighted as resilient players in the Thai market, with CP All benefiting from 7-Eleven's growth and Minor International having long-term rebound potential despite short-term pressures [52][51]

策略研究 / 2025.06.30 全球资本流向非美,国内杠杆资金加快扩张 方奕(分析师) 021-38676666 -投资者微观行为洞察手册 · 6月第 3 期 登记编与 S0880520120005 本报告导读: 郭胤含(分析师) 021-38676666 本期市场交易热度大幅抬升,融资资金大幅流入,ETF与外资资金转为流出,偏股 基金新发规模边际下降。南下资金流入持续抬升。 合记编与 S0880524100001 投资要点: 田开轩(分析师) 市场定价状态:市场整体交易热度快速抬升,赚钱效应明显。1)市 0 场情绪(上升):本期国泰海通资金流入强度指数整体持续上升, 食记编与 S0880524080006 市场交易热度底部抬升,全 A 日均成交额从 1.2 万亿上升至 1.5 万 亿,上证指数换手率分位数上升至85%,科创板换手率分位数上升 至 40%。日均涨停家数上升至 71 家,最大连板数为 6个,封板率上 升至 77.2%,龙虎榜上榜家数降至 61 家。2）赚钱效应(上升): 行业交易集中度回升,本期行业换手率历史分位数处于 90%以上的 行业有 7个,环比增加5个,其中换手率分位数超 95%的行 ...

分析师：徐驰 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 分析师：张文宇 执业证书编号：S0740520120003 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明 【市场回顾】 证券研究报告 信用业务周报 近期科技金融为何强势反弹？ 2025年6月30日 中泰证券研究所 图表：市场表现回顾 数据来源：Wind，中泰证券研究所 2 【市场观察】如何看待科技金融强势反弹？ 3 • 一、如何看待科技金融强势反弹？ • 近期A股科技板块强势反弹，背后是宏观风险缓解与市场风险偏好修复的共振结果。一方面，中东局 势超市场预期平息，大幅缓解市场地缘政治担忧，原油价格显著回落，带动通胀预期下降，流动性环 境改善，全球权益资产价格上涨；另一方面，特朗普近期在外交政策上的表态，特别是在以伊问题上 的处理降低了市场对其潜在执政不确定性的担忧，而这一点正是一季度部分资本离开美国避险的主要 原因，故近期美元资产回流，美股强于欧股、黄金走弱、美债收益率回落，形成与一季度全球资产组 合相对的"反向组合"。美债收益率下行和纳斯达克指数走强，不仅从流动性角度为A股提供支撑，也通 过科技股估值和情绪的外溢效应利好A股科技板块。这一逻辑亦与我们此前提示 ...

沪指6月30日上涨0.59%，申万所属行业中，今日上涨的有28个，涨幅居前的行业为国防军工、传媒， 涨幅分别为4.35%、2.82%。跌幅居前的行业为非银金融、银行、交通运输，跌幅分别为0.77%、 0.34%、0.09%。非银金融行业位居今日跌幅榜首位。 资金面上看，两市主力资金全天净流出16.13亿元，今日有10个行业主力资金净流入，国防军工行业主 力资金净流入规模居首，该行业今日上涨4.35%，全天净流入资金33.15亿元，其次是传媒行业，日涨幅 为2.82%，净流入资金为14.41亿元。 | 601066 | 中信建投 | 0.08 | 0.16 | -355.47 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 601878 | 浙商证券 | -0.27 | 0.86 | -336.25 | | 600053 | 九鼎投资 | -0.32 | 1.54 | -262.75 | | 002926 | 华西证券 | -1.65 | 2.13 | -176.06 | | 600599 | *ST熊猫 | 1.00 | 2.39 | -153.02 | | 000567 | 海德股份 ...

Market Overview - On June 30, A-shares saw all three major indices rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.59%, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 0.83%, and the ChiNext Index up by 1.35% [1] - The STAR Market Composite Index led the gains with an increase of 1.70% [2] - Over 4,000 stocks in the market experienced an increase [1] Hong Kong Market - On the same day, major indices in the Hong Kong stock market collectively declined, with the Hang Seng Technology Index down by 0.72% [4] - The Hang Seng Index fell by 0.87% [5] Sector Performance - The defense and military sector saw the highest gains, with an increase of 4.35%, followed by media at 2.82% and telecommunications at 1.90% [7] - In contrast, non-bank financials decreased by 0.77%, banks by 0.34%, and transportation by 0.09% [7] Industry Highlights Solid-State Battery Technology - A pilot project for all-solid-state battery electric bicycles was launched in Beijing, marking a significant step towards the commercialization of solid-state battery products [8] - Century Securities reported that the solid-state battery industry is progressing towards commercialization, with a recent announcement from a U.S. company indicating a 25-fold increase in heat treatment speed, leading to a 76.67% increase in stock prices over two days [8] Defense and Military Sector - There has been a significant inflow of capital into the defense and military sector, with the Defense ETF rising by 4.88% [9] - Northeast Securities highlighted the long-term growth certainty of the defense and military sector, noting that the industry is expected to recover as demand increases and structural capacity improves [9]

Market Overview - The three major A-share indices collectively rose, with over 4,000 stocks in the market increasing. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.59%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.83%, and the ChiNext Index by 1.35% [1] - The defense and military industry led the market, with stocks such as Hengyu Xintong, Chenxi Aviation, and Guorui Technology hitting the daily limit [1] Sector Performance - The media sector remained active, with stocks like Kaiying Network, Jibite, and Giant Network reaching the daily limit [2] - The telecommunications sector saw a late surge, with Zhongguang Fang雷 hitting the daily limit, along with Dongxin Heping, Zhongci Electronics, and Rihai Intelligent also reaching the daily limit [3] - Conversely, the large financial sector weakened, with non-bank financials experiencing significant declines, including Guosheng Jinkong down by 6% and Nanhua Futures and Ruida Futures dropping over 3% [3] Institutional Activity - Institutional participation remained consistent with the previous week, with a net buying and selling amount exceeding 10 million yuan for 25 stocks, including 17 net buys and 8 net sells. Notable net buys included Chengfei Integration at 249 million yuan, Xiongdi Technology at 137 million yuan, and Chenxi Aviation at 115 million yuan [4]

（原标题：数据复盘丨国防军工、传媒等行业走强 龙虎榜机构抢筹18股） 6月30日，上证指数早盘探底回升，午后震荡上扬；深证成指、创业板指早盘高开高走，午后一度回落，随后再度上扬；科创50指数早盘高开高 走，午后震荡走强。截至收盘，上证指数报3444.43点，涨0.59%，成交额5671.37亿元；深证成指报10465.12点，涨0.83%，成交额9197.47亿元； 创业板指报2153.01点，涨1.35%，成交额4621.57亿元；科创50指数报1003.41点，涨1.54%，成交额295.55亿元。沪深两市合计成交14868.84亿元， 成交额较上一交易日减少542.33亿元。 今日有2962只个股被主力资金净卖出，其中，56股被主力资金净卖出超1亿元。主力资金净流出最多的个股是恒宝股份，净流出金额为7.74亿元； 主力资金净流出居前的个股还有东方财富、比亚迪、深圳华强、金一文化、大东南等，净流出金额分别为5.62亿元、5.36亿元、4.02亿元、3.32亿 元、3.26亿元。 国防军工、传媒等行业走强 弘业期货、大东南均5连板 盘面上来看，行业板块、概念涨多跌少。其中，国防军工、传媒、通信、电子、纺织服 ...