大消费 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 6 月 9 日 [T分析师able_A：uthor 罗鹏 ] 执业证书号：S1030523040001 电话：0755-23602217 邮箱：luopeng@csco.com.cn 研究助理：赵靖 电话：0755-23602217 邮箱：zhaojing2@csco.com.cn 公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 证券研究报告 黄金珠宝"以旧换新"政策推动消费转型 [Table_ReportType] 大消费行业周报（6 月第 1 周） [Table_Summary] 行业观点： 请务必阅读文后重要声明及免责条款 [Table_Industry] [Table_Title] | 一、 市场周度回顾 3 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 二、 行业要闻及重点公司公告 4 | | | | 2.1 4 | 行业要闻 | | | 2.2 5 | 公司公告 | | [Table_Report] [Table_BaseData] 计算机 2019 年 Q3 综合毛利率（%） 9.7 综合净利率（%） 6.9 行业 ROE（%） 25.6 行业 ...

Group 1 - A-shares experienced fluctuations and upward trends in early June, with a focus on fundamental investment logic from June to August [1] - Institutions recommend focusing on traditional capacity reduction, the rise of new consumption, and sectors with high industry prosperity, including automotive, non-ferrous metals, retail, beauty care, and chemical pharmaceuticals [1][6] - Short-term fluctuations in Hong Kong stocks are expected, but they possess recovery potential in the medium to long term, making them worthy of investor attention [10] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for seven consecutive months, with a total of 7.383 million ounces as of the end of May, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 60,000 ounces [2] - Foreign institutions such as Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs express optimism about the asset allocation value in China, citing favorable economic growth expectations and relatively low asset valuations [4] Group 3 - Citic Securities emphasizes the importance of fundamental investment logic from June to August, highlighting the supply chain for computing power (AI servers, optical modules, switches, etc.) as a key focus area [5] - Dongwu Securities suggests that short-term thematic rotation may continue, with attention on new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, controllable nuclear fusion, AI edge devices, and commercial aerospace [7] - Huatai-PB Fund anticipates an increase in focus on consumption and cyclical sectors, driven by improved Q1 A-share company performance and potential recovery in foreign trade and economic expectations [8] - Huitianfu Fund indicates that the timing for technology growth investments is approaching, with the market sentiment having been released after prior adjustments, particularly in the AI industry chain [9]

中信证券：规避宏观扰动，回归产业趋势 在三季度末到四季度可能到来的指数牛市的关键入局点前，还将经历3—4个月的过渡阶段。从宏观面来看，内 需和价格信号仍偏弱，还需要看到更多反内卷和提振内需的实际举措；海外不确定性依然较大，后续美国减税 法案落地可能成为海外新一轮市场动荡的诱因。 从市场层面来看，A股小微盘和题材普遍在高位，在经过4—5月的极致演绎后，可能会出现波动。从应对思路 来看，抵御宏观扰动依赖AI这样的高景气度产业趋势，近期北美AI应用端在发生新的积极变化，中国市场不 久也会跟上。跨市场的均衡配置是另一条应对思路，港股的流动性还在持续改善，如果随海外市场出现波动是 较好的增仓机会。 国泰海通：港股是本轮牛市主战场 今年港股明显跑赢A股，背后反映宏观偏弱背景下港股稀缺性资产更具吸引力，类似2012—2014年移动互联浪 潮下港股比A股率先崛起。互联网、新消费、创新药、红利等板块的稀缺资产在港股更集中，与当前AI应用、 新消费等产业趋势相关度更高，即港股资产的稀缺性所在。随着外部环境对风险偏好的扰动减缓，来自基本面 和资金面的修复力量望推动港股进一步向上。 中期来看，政策发力驱动基本面修复，叠加资金面持续改 ...

因子拥挤度观察：小市值因子表现较好。 小市值因子拥挤度 1.05 ，低估值因子拥挤度 0.06 ，高盈利因 子拥挤度 -0.18 ，高盈利增长因子拥挤度 -0.23 。 行业拥挤度：机械设备、综合、商贸零售、环保和美容护理的行业拥挤度相对较高。 美容护理和银行的行 业拥挤度上升幅度相对较大。 报告导读： 从技术面来看， Wind 全 A 于 6 月 4 日突破 SAR 点位，发出做多信号；均 线强弱指数与顶部仍有一定的距离，证明指数仍有上行空间。因此，我们认为，市场下周 或将延续震荡上行态势。 下周市场观点：市场下周或将延续震荡上行态势。 从量化指标上看，基于沪深 300 指数的流动性冲击指 标周五为 0.30 ，高于前一周（ 0.13 ），意味着当前市场的流动性高于过去一年平均水平 0.30 倍标准 差。上证 50ETF 期权成交量的 PUT-CALL 比率震荡下降，周五为 0.85 ，低于前一周（ 1.15 ），投资 者对上证 50ETF 短期走势谨慎程度下降。上证综指和 Wind 全 A 五日平均换手率分别为 0.82% 和 1.40% ，处于 2005 年以来的 56.33% 和 68.58% 分位点 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Annualized Discount Model for CSI 500 Futures - **Model Construction Idea**: The model identifies optimal entry points for building positions based on historical performance when the annualized discount of CSI 500 futures exceeds a certain threshold, indicating market pessimism. [1][11] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model uses the annualized discount rate of the next-month contract of CSI 500 index futures as the key metric. - Historical data from 2017 onwards is analyzed to determine the relationship between the discount rate and subsequent returns. - Key findings: - When the annualized discount exceeds 15%, holding the index for more than 12 trading days results in average cumulative returns trending upward. - Holding for over 33 trading days yields a probability of positive cumulative returns exceeding 50%. - Holding for over 50 trading days increases the probability of positive returns to approximately 60%. - Formula: $ \text{Annualized Discount} = \frac{\text{Spot Price} - \text{Futures Price}}{\text{Futures Price}} \times \frac{365}{\text{Days to Maturity}} $ - Spot Price: Current index level - Futures Price: Price of the futures contract - Days to Maturity: Remaining days until the futures contract expires [11] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures market pessimism and identifies potential rebound opportunities, making it a useful tool for timing market entry. [11] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Annualized Discount Model for CSI 500 Futures - **Key Metrics**: - Holding for 12 trading days: Average cumulative returns trend upward. - Holding for 33 trading days: Positive return probability > 50%. - Holding for 50 trading days: Positive return probability ~60%. [1][11] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Proprietary Active Trader Activity Indicator - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the activity level of speculative funds (e.g., proprietary traders) to gauge market sentiment and risk appetite. [3][13] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Data Source: Derived from "Dragon and Tiger List" (龙虎榜) data. - The indicator tracks the marginal changes in active trader participation over time. - Observations: - From late April, the indicator showed a consistent decline, reflecting reduced risk appetite and cautious market sentiment. - Recently, the indicator has shown marginal improvement, suggesting a potential rebound in risk appetite. [3][13] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor provides timely insights into the behavior of speculative funds, which can serve as a leading indicator for shifts in market sentiment. [3][13] 2. Factor Name: BARRA Style Factors - **Factor Construction Idea**: These factors assess the performance of various style attributes (e.g., momentum, volatility, size) to understand market preferences. [23][24] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Data Source: BARRA factor model. - Key Observations for the Week: - Fundamental factors (e.g., profitability) showed significant positive excess returns. - Stocks with high short-term momentum and high volatility outperformed. - Size-related factors (e.g., market capitalization) continued to underperform, indicating a preference for mid- to small-cap stocks. - Formula: Factor returns are calculated as the weighted average of stock returns within each style category. [23][24] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factors effectively capture shifts in market preferences, providing actionable insights for portfolio adjustments. [23][24] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Proprietary Active Trader Activity Indicator - **Key Metrics**: - Indicator showed consistent decline from late April, reflecting reduced risk appetite. - Recent marginal improvement suggests a potential rebound in speculative activity. [3][13] 2. BARRA Style Factors - **Key Metrics**: - Momentum: +0.2% weekly return. - Volatility: +0.2% weekly return. - Profitability: +0.3% weekly return. - Size: -0.5% weekly return. - Nonlinear Size: -0.3% weekly return. [23][24]

Group 1 - The liquidity of the Hong Kong stock market continues to improve, presenting good opportunities for increasing positions during market fluctuations [1] - A-shares have shown strong performance, with the median increase in A-shares being the highest since 2022, particularly favoring smaller market capitalization stocks [2] - Consumer sectors are expected to remain a key driver of economic recovery, with domestic policies focusing on expanding domestic demand [3] Group 2 - Investment strategies should focus on traditional capacity reduction, the rise of new consumption, and sectors with high industry prosperity [2] - Defensive sectors such as banking are recommended for short-term stability, given the uncertain environment surrounding tariff negotiations [4] - The overall market index is expected to maintain a volatile trend, with external risks having potentially peaked [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Shandong Provincial Health Commission, in collaboration with other departments, has introduced a plan to standardize the "no accompanying care" service in medical institutions, aiming to enhance patient experience and reduce the burden on families [1][7]. Summary by Sections Service Details - The "no accompanying care" service is not free; caregivers charge between 150 to 330 yuan per day depending on the type of service [2][3]. - Caregivers provide services such as daily living assistance and post-operative care, with costs varying based on patient needs and hospital departments [3][11]. Implementation Timeline - By the end of 2025, all public tertiary medical institutions in Shandong are expected to offer this service, with secondary institutions encouraged to explore its implementation by the end of 2027 [7][12]. Current Practices - Some hospitals have already adopted similar models, where trained caregivers from third-party agencies provide care while nurses handle medical tasks [7][11]. - The service is primarily composed of family members and third-party caregivers, with varying levels of care depending on patient conditions [8][9]. Regulatory Framework - The government will implement a guided pricing system for the "no accompanying care" service, with other regions in China already conducting pilot programs [12][14]. - The service aims to address issues such as caregiver shortages and inconsistent service quality in traditional caregiving [11][14]. Future Prospects - The model is expected to reduce costs compared to traditional one-on-one caregiver services, while ensuring a stable and professional service through regulatory oversight [11][14].

Core Viewpoint - The company has announced its 2024 annual profit distribution plan, which includes a cash dividend of 7.50 RMB per 10 shares, totaling 129,130,350 RMB to be distributed to shareholders [1][5]. Summary by Sections Profit Distribution Plan - The 2024 annual profit distribution plan was approved at the shareholders' meeting held on May 21, 2025, based on a total share capital of 172,173,800 shares [1][3]. - The cash dividend of 7.50 RMB per 10 shares (including tax) will be distributed, with a total cash dividend amounting to 129,130,350 RMB [1][5]. Implementation Details - The implementation of the profit distribution plan is consistent with the approved distribution plan and its adjustment principles [3]. - The time from the approval of the profit distribution plan to its implementation does not exceed two months [4]. Key Dates - The record date for the equity distribution is June 12, 2025, and the ex-dividend date is June 13, 2025 [6]. Distribution Recipients - The distribution will be made to all shareholders registered with the China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation Limited, Shenzhen Branch, as of the close of trading on June 12, 2025 [7]. Distribution Method - Cash dividends for A-share shareholders will be directly credited to their accounts on June 13, 2025 [9]. - The company will bear all legal responsibilities if there are insufficient dividends due to a reduction in shares during the distribution application period [9]. Adjustment of Parameters - The minimum selling price for major shareholders and executives will be adjusted based on the cash dividend distribution, with the new minimum price set at 18.68 RMB per share after this distribution [9].

"薇美姿是公司的参股公司，一季度薇美姿暂时处于亏损状态。同期，善恩康净利润已同比实现扭亏为 盈。"张文生说。 "一季度公司主要产品牙刷毛利率为25.52%，湿巾毛利率为23.14%。"公司财务总监嵇玉芳在回答《证 券日报》记者提问时表示，与2024年度相比较，2025年一季度，公司牙刷毛利率增加1.79个百分点，湿 巾毛利率下降0.4个百分点。 倍加洁董事长、总经理张文生在回答《证券日报》记者提问时表示："公司2024年度、2025年一季度营 业收入同比增加系主营业务增长及控股子公司善恩康生物科技(苏州)有限公司(以下简称'善恩康')合并影 响，2024年度净利润由盈转亏主要系参股公司薇美姿实业(广东)股份有限公司(以下简称'薇美姿')经营业 绩的波动以及善恩康经营业绩不达预期影响，公司对长期股权投资及商誉分别计提了减值准备。" 张文生在回答投资者提问时强调，加强自有品牌的建设，短期目标是在收入增长的同时改善经营质量。 2025年一季度，倍加洁业绩依然呈现"增收不增利"状态。对此，张文生则表示，一季度净利润同比下降 原因主要系对参股公司薇美姿采用权益法核算所致，薇美姿一季度亏损同比增加。 6月6日下午，倍加洁 ...

Group 1 - The company, Kid King, announced a plan to acquire a 65% stake in Jiangsu Xingsiyu Investment Management Co., Ltd. from its affiliate, Wuxing Holdings, for a total price of 1.65 billion yuan [2][5] - The acquisition aims to enhance synergy in member operations, market layout, channel sharing, industrial collaboration, and business expansion, thereby strengthening the company's leading position in local life and new family services [2][5][11] - After the transaction, Jiangsu Xingsiyu will become a subsidiary of Kid King, with the company indirectly holding a 65% stake in Zhuhai Siyu Industrial Development Co., Ltd. [5][11] Group 2 - Kid King primarily engages in retail and value-added services for maternal and child products, providing a one-stop shopping experience and comprehensive growth services for children aged 0-14 and pregnant women [7] - Zhuhai Siyu focuses on hair and scalp health care, offering a complete solution for hair health, including products for hair washing, scalp cleaning, and styling tools [8] - As of the end of 2024, Zhuhai Siyu had 2,503 stores and over 2 million members, with a revenue of 144 million yuan and a net profit of 26.61 million yuan in Q1 2025 [8][10]