大消费 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 6 月 9 日 [T分析师able_A：uthor 罗鹏 ] 执业证书号：S1030523040001 电话：0755-23602217 邮箱：luopeng@csco.com.cn 研究助理：赵靖 电话：0755-23602217 邮箱：zhaojing2@csco.com.cn 公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 证券研究报告 黄金珠宝"以旧换新"政策推动消费转型 [Table_ReportType] 大消费行业周报（6 月第 1 周） [Table_Summary] 行业观点： 请务必阅读文后重要声明及免责条款 [Table_Industry] [Table_Title] | 一、 市场周度回顾 3 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 二、 行业要闻及重点公司公告 4 | | | | 2.1 4 | 行业要闻 | | | 2.2 5 | 公司公告 | | [Table_Report] [Table_BaseData] 计算机 2019 年 Q3 综合毛利率（%） 9.7 综合净利率（%） 6.9 行业 ROE（%） 25.6 行业 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies in the discretionary consumption sector, including Nike, Midea Group, JD Group, Gree Electric, Anta Sports, and many others [1]. Core Insights - The snacks sector has shown increased prosperity this week, with stock price volatility rising as some new consumption companies approach share release dates [4][10]. - The luxury goods sector, particularly gold and jewelry, has continued to perform well, driven by stable gold prices and brand upgrades [18]. - The sportswear sector has experienced divergence, with Lululemon's earnings slightly exceeding expectations but facing a significant stock price drop due to lowered guidance [19]. - The cosmetics sector has seen a decline, with unresolved issues affecting stock prices, while high-end international brands have performed well [19]. - Most discretionary consumption sectors are still valued below their historical five-year averages, indicating potential investment opportunities [20]. Sector Performance Review - Weekly performance rankings: Snacks > Pet > Luxury Goods > Credit Card > U.S. Hotel > Gambling > Cosmetics > Sportswear, with snacks and pet sectors outperforming the MSCI China index [14]. - Monthly performance rankings: Luxury Goods > Pet > Gambling > Credit Card > Snacks > U.S. Hotel > Cosmetics > Sportswear, with only cosmetics and sportswear underperforming [15]. - Year-to-date performance rankings: Luxury Goods > Pet > Snacks > Cosmetics > Credit Card > U.S. Hotel > Sportswear > Gambling, with luxury goods, pet, snacks, cosmetics, and credit card sectors outperforming [16]. Valuation Analysis - As of June 6, 2025, expected P/E ratios for various sectors indicate that most are below their five-year averages, with the sportswear sector at 15.5x (76% of its average), luxury goods at 21.8x (61%), and snacks at 25.7x (40%) [11][20].

一切智慧，皆在尘中悟。 ♬ 点上方播放按钮可收听 洞见主播云湾 朗读音频 01 大学时，我跟朋友搞了一个团队，有时会在寒暑假进行微创业。 洞见 （ DJ00123987 ） —— 不一样的观点，不一样的故事， 3000 万人订阅的微信大号。点击标题下 蓝字 " 洞见 " 关注，我们将为您提供有价值、有意思的延伸阅读。 作者：洞见ciyu 但在十年前，在四五线城市，扯起清华北大、复旦交大的大旗，谁不敢高看一眼。 何况，他们刚高考完，脑袋里的理论与经验都还没丢掉。 虽然只是办了一两期，但我们的培训班一炮打红。 之后的寒暑假，还是有家长经常打电话过来问我们的培训机构还要不要开。 我一个发小听说这件事后，特地来找我取经。 我记得有一次项目，是在寒假做补习机构。 那时，各种课外辅导班如火如荼。 我们特地通过高中母校联系上当届考进清华、人大、复旦的学生，请他们来当老师。 在宣传册上提出，授人以鱼不如授人以渔，重在教方法论。 在大城市，补习班打着名牌大学的噱头，可能不好用。 我跟他侃侃而谈。 比如为什么要选择培训班？ 是轻资产运营模式，同时父母愿意为孩子的教育一掷千金，培训班成本低利润大。 怎么样才能让自己的培训班杀出重围 ...

2025 年 06 月 08 日 震荡偏强，科技板块仍具性价比 金融工程定期报告 证券研究报告 本期要点：震荡偏强，科技板块仍具性价比 正如上周所述，当前市场走势比 2024 年 6 月要强一些，结构上可以 考虑在均衡的基础上偏向低吸科技板块，目前来看基本符合预期。 上周市场表现相对较强，上证则是再度形成了向上一笔，有挑战 5 月 高点的迹象。但在有效突破 5 月高点之前，上证也有可能因存在日线 顶背离的压制而出现调整的可能性。因此，我们当下维持市场震荡偏 强的判断，但将密切关注在前高附近市场是否展现出有效突破的迹 象；而如果一旦确认突破失败，那么后续或将迎来真正的调整。 上周四盘后，我们的四轮驱动模型再次发出 TMT 方向的多个看多信 号。从相对于市场的低频温度计角度看，目前 TMT 板块仍处于相对低 位；而从拥挤度的角度看，TMT 板块在 5 月底下探两年来的低点之后， 又有再度小幅上行的迹象。这两个因素或使得至少未来一两周内 TMT 是一个值得认真关注的方向。 具体而言，行业上，除了电子、计算机、传媒等板块外，还可以关注 非银、食品饮料、纺织服饰、通信、机械、军工等板块的机会。 风险提示：根据历史数据构 ...

最近，江苏"十三太保"之间的"苏超"联赛火爆出圈，再度引发外界对于"散装江苏"的种种讨论。 江苏是经济大省、制造业强省，然而和广东、浙江相比，来自江苏的知名消费品品牌却要少很多。 前段时间，北大国家发展研究院等机构基于淘宝天猫消费数据，编制发布了"全球品牌中国线上500强榜单（CBI 500）"。 其中，"中国线上消费品牌指数（CBI）"排在前1000名的本土品牌，分布最多的十个省份如下图所示。 江苏的GDP虽然高居全国第二，上榜品牌数却仅排在全国第五，不仅落后于广东和浙江，也低于上海和北京。江苏的上榜 品牌只有39个，只相当于浙江的四分之一，不到广东的四分之一。 我们再观察上榜的头部品牌，江苏与广东、浙江之间的差距更加明显。 | 省份 | 排名前50 | | 排名前100 排名前200 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 品牌数 | 品牌数 | | 品牌数 | | | 广东 | | 10 | 20 | | 37 | | 浙江 | | 5 | 9 | | 24 | | 江苏 | | 1 | 5 | | 11 | CBI指数排在前50名的广东品牌有：华 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform the Market" [1][6]. Core Viewpoints - The first quarter revenue met guidance, and profit exceeded expectations. The Chinese market continues to lead growth, although there is a sequential slowdown. The annual revenue guidance is maintained, while profit guidance is lowered due to tariff impacts [3][5][27]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first quarter of FY2025, revenue increased by 7% year-on-year (8% at constant currency) to $2.371 billion, reaching the upper limit of guidance (6-7%). Gross margin improved by 60 basis points to 58.3%, exceeding guidance [2][9][10]. - Operating profit grew by 1% to $439 million, with diluted EPS at $2.60, better than the management's guidance of $2.53-$2.58 [9][10]. Regional Performance - In the first quarter, revenue from China (excluding Hong Kong and Taiwan) grew by 22% year-on-year, leading growth despite a sequential slowdown. Management is confident in achieving a 25-30% growth for the full year [3][12][17]. - The Americas market showed a decline in customer traffic and increased promotions, resulting in weaker performance [3][17]. Management Guidance and Outlook - The company maintains a revenue growth guidance of 5-7% for FY2025, with a downward adjustment in gross margin and EPS guidance due to tariff costs. The second quarter is expected to see significant cost pressure, which may ease in the second half of the year [7][19][24]. - Management plans to implement selective price increases, optimize the supply chain, and control operational efficiency to mitigate cost pressures [25][26]. Investment Recommendations - The report expresses optimism about the Chinese market, highlighting Lululemon's strong growth and the potential for continued expansion. It recommends leading companies in the sportswear supply chain, such as Shenzhou International and Anta Sports, as well as local brands with long-term growth prospects [27][28].

Lululemon于北京时间 2025 年 6 月 6 日上午美股盘后发布了 2025 年第一季度财报（截止 2025 年 3 月）。 一句话利润崩得太快，估值杀得太慢，出现海豚君跟踪中免中出现的问题——股价一直掉，但估值越杀越贵。具体来看核心信息： 1、利润端不及市场预期。 一季度 Lululemon 实现营收 23.7 亿美元，同比增长 7.3%，和市场预期基本一致，也落在了公司上季度的指引上限， 属于预期内的低增 速 。 但由于行业竞争加剧，以及拓展海外市场的需要，公司主动加大了费用投放，虽然毛利符合预期， 但最终净利率回落至 13.3%，处于近 3 年来最低水平。 2、高增的国际市场降速。 分地区看 ， 作为 Lululemon 的大本营市场，北美地区同比增长 3.2%，趋势上和 24 年增速基本持平，再结合电话会信息， 一季度客单 价有所提升，说明销量下滑是北美地区增速放缓的主要原因。 中国地区同比增长 19%，趋势上较前两年 35% 以上的高增速明显放缓，海豚君推测和中国市场竞争加剧（ 北美地区 Lululemon 第一大竞争对手 Alo Yoga 入华， 和公司客群重合度极高 ）以及二线及以下的 ...

Group 1 - The overall consumption environment in China is showing signs of recovery, with a consumer confidence index slightly rebounding and retail sales growth exceeding 5% in early 2025 [2][12][22] - New retail companies like Pop Mart, Lao Pu Gold, and Mixue Ice City are experiencing significant growth in both revenue and stock performance, driven by consumer enthusiasm for new consumption models [2][22] - The low-tier markets are emerging as a new growth engine, with companies like Luckin Coffee expanding their presence in these areas, leading to increased store numbers and sales [3][22] Group 2 - Traditional consumption sectors are focusing on cost-effectiveness, with companies increasing promotions and offering high-value products to attract consumers [4][22] - There is a growing demand for self-indulgent and emotional consumption, as evidenced by the increase in tourism during the May Day holiday, with 314 million domestic tourists and an 8% increase in tourism revenue [5][22] - The inventory clearance phase for many consumer goods companies is nearing its end, leading to improved competition dynamics and a focus on inventory management [6][22] Group 3 - Chinese consumer companies are accelerating their overseas expansion despite uncertainties from the US-China trade war, with firms like Pop Mart establishing factories in Vietnam and successfully entering the North American market [7][22] - The 2025 consumption market is characterized by new trends such as the rise of low-tier markets, a focus on cost-effectiveness, the flourishing of self-indulgent consumption, optimized inventory management, and accelerated overseas expansion [7][22]

智通财经APP获悉，近日，Lululemon(LULU.US)举办FY25Q1财报电话会。Lululemon在会上表示，从全 年来看，公司指引的利润率较之前下降了 160 个基点，主要与关税的净影响以及折扣的小幅增加有关。 在缓解关税影响方面，一是定价，公司计划对部分商品进行战略性提价，提价商品占比小且幅度适中； 二是采购，正在采取一些效率提升措施，部分措施会在今年下半年产生影响，也会持续关注到 2026 年。 在新品品类趋势上，新品在生活方式和运动活动方面的引入和更新表现均衡。生活方式方面，一季度推 出的 daydrift 长裤很受欢迎，几乎在所有门店售罄，9 月将有更多款式补货；运动活动方面，Loup 受到 好评，销量持续增长，且公司在不断拓展其颜色和款式。 Q&A Q：对于今年剩余时间的业绩指引以及二季度面临的压力，公司有哪些缓解措施，比如提价、多元化采 购等，应该如何看待这些措施？美国业务在新品方面有哪些品类趋势，新系列的早期销售情况如何？ A：从全年来看，公司指引的利润率较之前下降了 160 个基点，主要与关税的净影响以及折扣的小幅增 加有关。在缓解关税影响方面，一是定价，公司计划对部分商品进行战略 ...

1.6月6日(周五)美股盘前，美股三大股指期货齐涨。截至发稿，道指期货涨0.31%，标普500指数期货涨0.40%，纳指期货涨0.41%。 | ■ US 30 | 42,452.50 | | T | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ■ US 500 | 5,962.80 | 5,967.60 5,924.60 | | | 틀 US Tech 100 | 21,636.10 | 21,661.30 21,445.60 | | 2.截至发稿，德国DAX指数跌0.23%，英国富时100指数跌0.05%，法国CAC40指数跌0.02%，欧洲斯托克50指数涨0.03%。 | 3.截至发稿，WTI原油跌0.13%，报63.29美元/桶。布伦特原油跌0.08%，报65.29美元/桶。 | | --- | 市场消息 AI增长动能放缓?博通(AVGO.US)Q2营收创新高，但Q3指引未达最乐观预期。芯片巨头博通公布了一份超预期的第二财季业绩，但对第三财季的指引不够惊 艳令一些投资者感到失望。财报显示，在截至5月4日的第二财季，博通销售额同比增长20%至150亿美元，略高于分析师平均预期的149.6亿美元 ...