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山金期货黑色板块日报-20250605
Shan Jin Qi Huo· 2025-06-05 01:20
投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 更新时间:2025年06月05日08时09分 一、螺纹、热卷 报告导读: 消息面上,有传言称外蒙将上调煤炭资源税至 20%,目前尚没有该国官方消息发布。 特朗普将钢铝关税提高至 50%,可能对钢材出口形成更大的 压力。 目前政策面利多基本兑现,前期中美贸易紧张局势缓解也体现在价格中 。房地产仍处于筑底过程中,对钢材的需求仍边际减弱。上周我的钢 铁公布的数据显示,产量有所回落,厂库下降,社库继续回落,总库存下降,表观需求环比微幅上升,数据对期价有所提振。从需求的季节性规律 看,表观需求高峰期已过,随着雨季和高温天气的到来,需求将进一步走弱。限产传闻对市场提振作用有限。钢企普遍认为,行业确实需要减产, 但近期钢企亏损状况有所改善,企业主动减产的动力偏弱。整体来看,目前市场逐渐由强现实向弱现实转变 ,弱预期也没有发生实质性的改变。从 技术上看,价格跌破了近期的震荡区间,形成向下的有效突破,短线在消息面刺激下的反弹不影响趋势的延续 。 操作建议: 空单持有 表1:螺纹、热卷相关数据 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | --- | ...
研究所晨会观点精萃-20250605
Dong Hai Qi Huo· 2025-06-05 00:47
投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可[2011]1771号 [Table_Report] 分析师 贾利军 从业资格证号:F0256916 投资咨询证号:Z0000671 电话:021-68756925 邮箱:jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 刘兵 从业资格证号:F03091165 投资咨询证号:Z0019876 联系电话:021-58731316 邮箱:liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号:F03089928 投资咨询证号:Z0019740 电话:021-68757092 邮箱:wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号:F3077183 投资咨询证号:Z0016121 电话:021-68757092 邮箱:fengb@qh168.com.cn 李卓雅 从业资格证号:F03144512 投资咨询证号:Z0022217 电话:021-68757827 邮箱:lizy@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号:F03092124 投资咨询证号:Z0018827 电话:021-68758786 邮箱:mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号:F303392 ...
河北县域特色产业集群串珠成链(奋勇争先,决战决胜“十四五”)
Ren Min Ri Bao· 2025-06-04 21:56
Core Viewpoint - The development of county-level economies in Hebei is being driven by unique local industries, technological innovation, and green transformation, contributing to high-quality economic growth in the region [1][5]. Group 1: County-Level Economic Development - Hebei's county-level industries, such as Anping's wire mesh and Suxin's musical instruments, are vital for local economic vitality, with over 190 countries importing products from Anping [1]. - The provincial government emphasizes the importance of developing distinctive county economies to enhance local employment and income for farmers [1]. Group 2: Technological Innovation - Pingxiang County's Hengpeng Vehicle Company has improved production efficiency through technological advancements, reducing costs by 30% and product weight by 20% [2]. - The establishment of innovation platforms, such as the Bicycle Research Institute, has fostered collaboration among over 3,000 enterprises, enhancing product quality and technological content [2]. - By the end of 2024, 98 enterprises in 60 key county-level industrial clusters are expected to build shared factories, benefiting over 5,000 companies [2]. Group 3: Green Transformation - Wucheng County has implemented a closed transportation system for mining operations, significantly reducing vehicle trips and emissions [3]. - The county is also investing in multiple projects aimed at enhancing environmental sustainability, including a 4.2 billion yuan phosphate chemical project [3]. - Yuhua Steel Company has invested 530 million yuan in environmental upgrades, resulting in a profit margin 6 percentage points higher than the industry average [4]. Group 4: Economic Impact and Future Plans - By 2024, 107 key county-level industrial clusters in Hebei are projected to achieve a total revenue of 3.6 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.3% [5]. - From 2025 to 2027, Hebei plans to implement six major actions, including expanding the "shared intelligent manufacturing" model to further enhance county-level industrial clusters [5]. - The provincial leadership is committed to realizing the vision of county-level economies as pillars of local prosperity and employment [5].
周报:钢铁关税提高,钢价承压下行-20250604
Zhong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-06-04 11:10
投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 钢铁关税提高,钢价承压下行 ——周报20250603 投 资 咨 询 编 号 :Z0020978 研究所 :林娜 联 系 方 式 :0371-58620083 电 子 邮 箱 :linna_qh@ccnew.com 执 业 证 书 编 号 :F03099603 | 本期观点——螺纹钢、热卷 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险点 | | | 供应:全国螺纹周产量225.51万吨(环比-2.58%,同比-5.83%),全国热卷周产 | | | | | 量319.55万吨(环比+4.54%,同比-0.96%)。 | | | | | 消费:螺纹钢表观消费248.68万吨(环比+0.63%,同比+7.59%),热卷表观消费 | | | | | 326.93万吨(环比+4.43%,同比+3.27%)。 | | | | | 库存:螺纹总库存581.05万吨(环比-3.83%,同比-24.90%),热卷总库存 | | | | | 332.81万吨(环比-2.17%,同比-20.62%)。 | | | ...
铁矿石早报-20250604
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-04 07:48
铁矿石早报 研究中心黑色团队 2025/6/4 地区 品种 最新 日变化 周变化 折盘面 最新 日变化 周变化 进口利润 96.30 -0.50 -1.35 纽曼粉 723 -7 -6 772.6 91.70 -0.55 -1.30 -17.66 PB粉 726 -9 -14 767.9 94.50 -0.40 -1.25 -3.64 麦克粉 705 -11 -15 770.3 90.25 -0.60 -1.20 -2.50 金布巴 681 -10 -15 768.9 86.40 -0.45 -0.95 -2.73 主流 混合粉 652 -6 -8 774.9 81.45 -0.60 -1.15 9.58 超特粉 613 -7 -2 821.1 78.35 -0.65 -1.30 2.93 卡粉 820 -8 -12 758.5 104.10 -1.10 -1.95 10.82 巴西 巴混 748 -9 -9 757.3 96.05 0.10 -0.80 3.44 主流 巴粗IOC6 699 -9 -14 766.6 巴粗SSFG 704 -9 -14 乌克兰精粉 792 -5 -2 876.3 61%印粉 ...
多重逆风因素显现 Jefferies下调力拓(RIO.US)评级至“持有”
智通财经网· 2025-06-04 06:42
Core Viewpoint - Jefferies has downgraded Rio Tinto's rating from "Buy" to "Hold" due to multiple adverse factors including an upcoming CEO transition, increased U.S. aluminum import tariffs, and expectations of softening iron ore prices [1][2] Group 1: Company-Specific Factors - The downgrade is influenced by concerns over the upcoming CEO change and the impact of U.S. aluminum tariffs on the company's operations [1] - There are worries regarding the capital expenditure required for Rio Tinto's lithium business, which may lead to increased capital intensity and lower returns if the company's expectations for the lithium market are overly optimistic [1] - The anticipated increase in capital spending for the lithium business is expected to pressure Rio Tinto's free cash flow, as it may not yield corresponding revenue increases in the short term [1] Group 2: Market and Industry Outlook - Jefferies analysts do not hold a bearish view on the iron ore outlook but believe that escalating U.S.-China trade tensions, a persistently weak real estate market, structural adjustments leading to steel production cuts, and seasonal demand weakness will contribute to a downward trend in iron ore prices [1] - The long-term price forecast for iron ore is set at $90 per ton, with slight downside risks [1] - Jefferies expresses a more favorable investment outlook for Glencore, Anglo American, and Vale compared to Rio Tinto and BHP [2]
《黑色》日报-20250604
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-06-04 06:18
| 材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年6月4日 | | | 問敏波 | 20010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 即值 | 涨跌 | 某差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3090 | 3120 | -30 | 185 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3150 | 3160 | -10 | 245 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3200 | 3230 | -30 | 295 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 2910 | 2973 | -63 | 180 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 2928 | 2961 | -33 | 162 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 2905 | 2967 | -62 | 185 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3170 | 3170 | 0 | 125 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3100 | 3140 | -40 | ਵੇਂ | | | 热卷现 ...
山金期货黑色板块日报-20250604
Shan Jin Qi Huo· 2025-06-04 03:43
投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 更新时间:2025年06月04日08时14分 一、螺纹、热卷 报告导读: 特朗普将钢铝关税提高至 50%,对钢材出口形成更大的压力。 目前政策面利多基本兑现,前期中美贸易紧张局势缓解也体现在价格中 。房地产方 面,核心城市有所企稳,低线城市房地产市场仍在筑底过程中 ,新开工面积仍大幅回落,竣工面积、施工面积同比也依然维持较大的跌幅 。上周我 的钢铁公布的数据显示,产量有所回落,厂库下降,社库继续回落,总库存下降,表观需求环比微幅上升,数据对期价有所提振。从需求的季节性 规律看,表观需求高峰期已过,随着雨季和高温天气的到来,需求将进一步走弱。限产传闻对市场提振作用有限。钢企普遍认为,行业确实需要减 产,但近期钢企亏损状况有所改善,企业主动减产的动力偏弱。整体来看,目前市场逐渐由强现实向弱现实转变 ,弱预期也没有发生实质性的改变 。从技术上看,价格跌破了近期的震荡区间,形成向下的有效突破,后市有望延续下行趋势,短线的反弹不影响趋势的延续。 操作建议: 空单持有 表1:螺纹、热卷相关数据 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | -- ...
铁矿石:铁水高位回落 关注终端需求边际变化
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-06-04 02:40
【现货】 主流矿粉现货价格:日照港(600017)PB粉-3至732元/吨,巴混粉-3至754元/吨。 【需求】 日均铁水产量241.91万吨,环比-1.69万吨;高炉开工率83.87%,环比+0.18%;高炉炼铁产能利用率 90.69%,环比-0.64个百分点;钢厂盈利率58.87%,环比-0.87个百分点。 【供给】 本周全球发运环比小幅回升。全球发运+242.3万吨至3431万吨。澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量2868.8万吨,环 比增加78.8万吨。澳洲发运量1920.5万吨,环比减少92.7万吨,其中澳洲发往中国的量1499.8万吨,环比 减少281.4万吨。巴西发运量948.3万吨,环比增加171.5万吨。45港口到港量2536.5万吨,环比增加385.2 万吨。 【库存】 截至5月29日,45港库存13866.58万吨,环比-121.25万吨;日均疏港量高位回落,港口库存延续降势。 钢厂进口矿库存环比-171.15至8754.33万吨,钢厂日耗小幅下降,库存环比下滑,减量集中在大型钢 厂。 【期货】 截止昨日收盘,铁矿主力合约-0.93%(-6.5),收于695.5元/吨。 【基差】 最优交割品为巴混。P ...
对话淡水河谷中国区总裁:从巴西到中国,如何以创新技术重塑全球低碳钢铁产业链?
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-06-04 01:14
Core Viewpoint - Multinational companies, particularly Vale, are focusing on sustainable development and adapting their strategies to the Chinese market to create positive social, economic, and environmental impacts [1][4]. Group 1: Sustainable Development Strategy - Vale integrates sustainability into its business practices, aligning its ESG goals with the United Nations' 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) [4][5]. - The company has set specific targets to reduce its carbon emissions, including a 33% reduction in absolute emissions by 2030 and achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 for Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions [6][20]. - Vale is the first mining company to establish quantified reduction targets for Scope 3 emissions, which account for approximately 98% of its total emissions, primarily from steel production [6][10]. Group 2: Technological Innovations - Vale is deploying AI technologies to optimize resource management, carbon reduction, and supply chain efficiency, including projects like "smart mining" to reduce truck fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions [2][14]. - The company has invested in AI since 2016, deploying around 40 AI products and 1500 models across 80 projects to enhance operational efficiency and safety [14][15]. Group 3: Future Plans in China - China is Vale's largest market, with 187 million tons of iron ore exported in the previous year, accounting for over 60% of its total iron ore sales [17][19]. - Vale plans to invest 70 billion Brazilian Reais in the "New Carajás" project over the next five years to increase iron ore and copper production [17]. - The company is collaborating with Chinese partners to build a mineral processing plant in Oman, expected to process 18 million tons of iron ore annually by mid-2027 [19].