2025 年 6 月 4 日 行业研究 OPEC+加速增产利好油运需求提升，美线景气度维持高位 ——交通运输行业周报第41期（20250526-20250601） 要点 OPEC+加速增产，有望进一步提振原油运输需求。本周 OPEC+作出连续第 三个月大幅增产决策，该组织同意连续第三个月将石油产量提高 41.1 万桶/ 日，规模持平前两次增产。OPEC+曾经于 4 月、5 月宣布 5 月、6 月增产 41.1 万桶/日，为 3 月原定增产计划额的三倍。本轮 OPEC+增产的直接原因 是主要成员国的不遵守协议行为，特别是伊拉克和哈萨克斯坦，此外，由于 当前油价已低于美国页岩油的边际成本，OPEC+的连续增产计划将起到打击 美国页岩油产量的作用，从而提升自身在全球原油市场的份额。考虑到沙特 对低油价表现出接受态度，OPEC+增产或持续加速，对油运需求形成利好。 此外，地缘政治方面，近期俄乌谈判再起波澜，西方对俄制裁风险上升，欧 盟正在讨论对俄罗斯实施新一轮制裁，包括针对俄石油的相关措施、降低俄 石油和石油产品价格上限以及针对俄罗斯"影子舰队"船只的新限制措施。 我们认为今年以来对俄罗斯、伊朗"影子船队"制裁趋严， ...

2025 年 6 月 4 日 行业研究 OPEC+加速增产利好油运需求提升，美线景气度维持高位 ——交通运输行业周报第41期（20250526-20250601） 要点 OPEC+加速增产，有望进一步提振原油运输需求。本周 OPEC+作出连续第 三个月大幅增产决策，该组织同意连续第三个月将石油产量提高 41.1 万桶/ 日，规模持平前两次增产。OPEC+曾经于 4 月、5 月宣布 5 月、6 月增产 41.1 万桶/日，为 3 月原定增产计划额的三倍。本轮 OPEC+增产的直接原因 是主要成员国的不遵守协议行为，特别是伊拉克和哈萨克斯坦，此外，由于 当前油价已低于美国页岩油的边际成本，OPEC+的连续增产计划将起到打击 美国页岩油产量的作用，从而提升自身在全球原油市场的份额。考虑到沙特 对低油价表现出接受态度，OPEC+增产或持续加速，对油运需求形成利好。 此外，地缘政治方面，近期俄乌谈判再起波澜，西方对俄制裁风险上升，欧 盟正在讨论对俄罗斯实施新一轮制裁，包括针对俄石油的相关措施、降低俄 石油和石油产品价格上限以及针对俄罗斯"影子舰队"船只的新限制措施。 我们认为今年以来对俄罗斯、伊朗"影子船队"制裁趋严， ...

Market Overview - The FTSE China A50 Index showed mixed performance among bank stocks, while consumer electronics stocks experienced an upward trend [1] Insurance Sector - China Life Insurance, China Pacific Insurance, and China Ping An had market capitalizations of CNY 366.17 billion, CNY 339.41 billion, and CNY 984.99 billion respectively, with trading volumes of CNY 1.35 billion, CNY 0.43 billion, and CNY 0.75 billion [5] - The stock prices changed as follows: China Life +0.78 (+2.26%), China Pacific +0.24 (+0.45%), China Ping An -0.03 (-0.36%) [5] Alcohol Industry - Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye had market capitalizations of CNY 1900.45 billion, CNY 220.40 billion, and CNY 484.70 billion respectively, with trading volumes of CNY 0.54 billion, CNY 0.94 billion, and CNY 1.63 billion [5] - Stock price changes were: Kweichow Moutai +3.86 (+0.26%), Shanxi Fenjiu -0.44 (-0.24%), Wuliangye +0.19 (+0.15%) [5] Semiconductor Sector - Northern Huachuang and Cambricon Technologies had market capitalizations of CNY 226.95 billion and CNY 254.19 billion respectively, with trading volumes of CNY 2.09 billion and CNY 0.49 billion [5] - Stock price changes included: Northern Huachuang +13.03 (+2.19%), Cambricon Technologies +0.09 (+0.02%) [5] Automotive Sector - BYD, Great Wall Motors, and Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway had market capitalizations of CNY 1100.23 billion, CNY 193.10 billion, and CNY 283.77 billion respectively, with trading volumes of CNY 3.76 billion, CNY 0.30 billion, and CNY 0.14 billion [5] - Stock price changes were: BYD -0.08 (-1.36%), Great Wall Motors +6.03 (+1.69%), Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway +0.10 (+0.45%) [5] Shipping and Oil Sector - Sinopec, PetroChina, and COSCO Shipping had market capitalizations of CNY 698.37 billion, CNY 1530.55 billion, and CNY 250.31 billion respectively, with trading volumes of CNY 0.23 billion, CNY 0.35 billion, and CNY 0.54 billion [5] - Stock price changes included: Sinopec +0.01 (+0.17%), PetroChina -0.06 (-0.37%), COSCO Shipping +0.06 (+0.72%) [5] Coal and Battery Sector - China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical, and CATL had market capitalizations of CNY 196.32 billion, CNY 778.05 billion, and CNY 1148.85 billion respectively, with trading volumes of CNY 1.85 billion, CNY 0.40 billion, and CNY 0.37 billion [5] - Stock price changes were: China Shenhua -0.01 (-0.03%), Shaanxi Coal -0.21 (-1.03%), CATL +0.83 (+0.33%) [5] Other Sectors - Long江电力, China Nuclear Power, and Dongfang Fortune had market capitalizations of CNY 734.54 billion, CNY 195.40 billion, and CNY 332.68 billion respectively, with trading volumes of CNY 0.68 billion, CNY 0.32 billion, and CNY 3.34 billion [6] - Stock price changes included: Long江电力 +0.39 (+1.89%), China Nuclear Power -0.13 (-0.43%), Dongfang Fortune 0.00 (0.00%) [6]

Core Viewpoint - Sichuan Chengyu (601107) is the only A+H share listed infrastructure company in Western China, focusing on enhancing its core competitiveness in the highway sector while providing high dividends to attract investors [1][6] Business Strategy - The company aims to strengthen its main business by upgrading existing roads, asset integration, and acquiring quality road assets [1][3] - Sichuan Chengyu's highway assets are strategically located in economically developed and tourist areas of Sichuan, which supports stable toll revenue despite concerns about competition from high-speed rail [2][3] Financial Performance - In 2024, the average daily traffic on Chengyu Highway is projected to be 20,600 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 1.15%, with toll revenue expected to reach 855 million yuan, up 4.20% year-on-year [2] - The company has a high dividend payout ratio, with a planned cash distribution of at least 60% of net profit for the years 2023-2025, and a dividend ratio of 61.83% in 2023 [6][7] Investment and Growth Opportunities - Sichuan Chengyu is exploring diversification into emerging industries such as smart driving and low-altitude economy, with a focus on integrating drone technology into highway operations [3][4] - The company has initiated drone inspections on several highways, significantly improving efficiency and reducing operational costs [4][5] New Business Development - The comprehensive energy business is showing initial success, providing charging services for 3.325 million electric vehicles in 2024, with charging revenue exceeding 100 million yuan for the first time [6] - Sichuan Chengyu operates 313 charging stations and 2,275 charging piles, with significant growth in charging volume and frequency during the recent holiday period [6] Market Position and Shareholder Engagement - The company's A and H shares have reached nearly ten-year highs, attracting attention from institutional investors focused on stable performance and dividend policies [6][7] - The company is committed to enhancing operational efficiency and optimizing its business structure to increase profitability and shareholder returns [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant increase in cross-regional personnel flow during the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, with a total of 65.37 million trips made, representing a year-on-year growth of 2.5% [1] Group 2 - The railway passenger volume reached 48.03 million trips, averaging 16.01 million trips per day [1] - The waterway passenger volume was 2.73 million trips, averaging 0.91 million trips per day [1] - The civil aviation passenger volume totaled 5.63 million trips, averaging 1.88 million trips per day [1] Group 3 - The road personnel flow, which includes both non-commercial passenger car trips on highways and regular national and provincial roads, as well as commercial road passenger transport, amounted to 59.73 million trips, averaging 19.91 million trips per day [1] - Among the road personnel flow, non-commercial passenger car trips accounted for 48.69 million trips, averaging 16.23 million trips per day, while commercial road passenger transport reached 11.04 million trips, averaging 3.68 million trips per day [1]

Core Insights - The recent bridge card competition in Qinyuan, Lishui, Zhejiang, has not only served as a platform for enthusiasts but also highlighted the region's development potential due to improved transportation infrastructure [1][3] - The opening of the Longqing Expressway in 2013 has significantly enhanced accessibility, leading to a steady increase in traffic and tourism, with expectations of reaching 1.9 million visitors in 2023 [1][3] - The local government aims to leverage sports events to boost tourism and economic growth, planning 112 large-scale events by 2025, which are projected to attract 780,000 visitors and generate over 1.13 billion yuan in consumption [3] Transportation Development - The Longqing Expressway has seen a traffic increase of 8% to 13% annually, with over 20,000 vehicles recorded during the recent Dragon Boat Festival, marking a 32% increase year-on-year [1][3] - The expressway is described as a "golden link" for shared prosperity in the mountainous region, facilitating the movement of goods and tourists [4] Safety and Management Innovations - The Lishui Management Center has implemented advanced technologies such as the "High Eye" event detection system and drones for monitoring, enhancing safety and operational efficiency on the expressway [3][4] - Upgrades to the Baima Fan interchange have improved traffic flow and safety, including the installation of 28 roadside lights and anti-slip markings [4]

Core Insights - The Dragon Boat Festival holiday saw a significant increase in consumer travel, with a total of 653.7 million trips made, averaging 21.79 million trips per day, representing a year-on-year growth of 2.5% [1][3][14] - The robust travel activity reflects the strong consumption vitality within the Chinese economy, indicating a resilient and expansive domestic market [3][14] Transportation and Travel Data - Daily railway passenger volume reached 16.01 million, while road travel averaged 19.91 million, and air travel averaged 1.88 million passengers per day [1] - The holiday period saw a notable increase in short-distance travel, with self-driving trips accounting for a high proportion of the traffic, particularly on highways [10][11] Regional Tourism Performance - In Henan, the province received 15.12 million tourists, generating a tourism revenue of 6.79 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 4.7% and 5.3% respectively [4] - Beijing welcomed 8.21 million tourists, achieving a total tourism expenditure of 10.77 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.4% and 6.7% [4] - Guangdong reported 23.21 million tourists and a tourism revenue of 11.44 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 20.6% and 25.6% respectively [5] Cultural and Experiential Trends - Traditional cultural elements like dragon boats and rice dumplings have transformed into significant drivers of local consumption and tourism [6] - Events such as concerts and sports matches have become major attractions, leading to increased travel across provinces and cities, highlighting a surge in consumer willingness to pay for experiences [7][9] Infrastructure and Connectivity - China's extensive high-speed rail and highway networks, along with an improving civil aviation system, have significantly reduced travel costs and time, enhancing people's willingness to travel [11][12] - The efficient transportation infrastructure supports the high volume of travel, making the 653.7 million trips possible and forming the backbone of a dynamic and mobile society [12][14]

今日早参 2025 年 6 月 03 日 林晓明 金融工程首席研究员 座机：0755-82080134 邮箱：linxiaoming@htsc.com 林晓明 金融工程首席研究员 座机：0755-82080134 邮箱：linxiaoming@htsc.com 今日热点 金工：如何看待当前股指期货深度贴水？ 上周海外投资者风险偏好有所抬升，欧美日韩主要指数多数上涨，美股三大 指数集体上涨，相对于 4 月份的低点显著上行。全球主要国家 10 年期国债收 益率多数下行，美 10 年期国债收益率相较于 5 月 21 日高点有所回落，但整 个五月仍以上行为主。黄金高位震荡，上周整体下跌，但支撑黄金价格的中 长期因素未发生根本转变，美元指数小幅反弹。A 股主要指数以收跌为主， 整体成交热度有所下降，沪深两市日均成交额回落至万亿左右。内部存在分 化，价值好于成长、小盘好于大盘。整体来看，外部扰动下市场资金在高成 长与防御性板块间快速轮动，行业配置方面，我们继续推荐哑铃型方案。 风险提示：周度观点基于数据和逻辑推演，无法保证永远正确；相关模型均 根据历史规律总结，历史规律可能失效。 韩晳 SAC:S057052010000 ...

证券研究报告 受降雨天气影响，端午出行略显平淡 华泰研究 2025 年 6 月 02 日│中国内地 动态点评 端午假期出行较为平淡，短途增速稍好于中长途 交通部预计，2025 年端午假期（5/31-6/2）累计全社会跨区域人员流动量达 到 6.57 亿人次，同比（24 年端午假期，下同）提升 3.0%，低于交通运输 部 5 月 29 日的初步预测 7.7%，也低于五一假期（yoy+7.9%）和春节假期 （yoy+5.8%）。我们认为出行较为平淡，主要由于南方地区雨水频繁，且今 年端午假期在高考前仅约一个星期，进一步抑制旅游出行。分出行方式来看， 公路客运量同比增长 3.1%，高于铁路和民航 2.3%/1.2%的增幅，三天假期 短途旅游需求稍好。结合子行业景气趋势，考虑暑运旺季，推荐航空板块， 首推中国国航 A/H，同时推荐皖通高速 A/H、浙江沪杭甬、粤高速 A。 航空：端午假期时长较短，同比增速低于总体 据交通部预计，端午假期民航客运量日均 186.7 万人次，同比增长 1.22%， 同比增速低于铁路/公路的 2.3%/3.1%，主要由于端午假期仅三天，对于中 长 途 的 航 空 出 行 催 化 作 用 较 ...

长江电力 东方财富 02)中国核电 1951.90亿市值 7330.68亿市值 3284.08亿市值 15.40亿成交额 4.28亿成交额 23.58亿成交额 20.78 29.96 9.49 -0.24(-0.79%) -0.09(-0.94%) +0.16(+0.78%) 食品饮料 证券 中信证券 国泰海通 海天味业 ■双 3808.88亿市值 3169.82亿市值 2455.01亿市值 9.24亿成交额 19.31亿成交额 3.88亿成交额 25.70 17.98 44.15 +0.18(+0.71%) +0.80(+4.66%) -0.27(-0.61%) 消费电子 化学制药 恒瑞医药 立讯精密 工业富联 3747.37亿市值 2201.05亿市值 3663.63亿市值 5.37亿成交额 11.33亿成交额 15.91亿成交额 55.48 30.37 18.87 -0.06(-0.32%) -0.03(-0.10%) +0.74(+1.35%) 家电行业 农牧饲渔 牧原股份 格力电器 海尔智家 油气长官 2525.11亿市值 2326.02亿市值 2241.92亿市值 23.68亿成交额 5.79亿成 ...