以下文章来源于申万宏源策略 ，作者申万宏源策略 申万宏源策略 . 我们强调体系性、实战性 目录 一周回顾 用好用足"，增量政策"备足预案"，资本市场"稳定"基础上还要"活跃"，全面覆盖市场期待。政策关键验证期，A股预期将保持稳定。 易因素。基准假设是，特朗普政策调整缓慢且渐进，美股承压，A股基本面预期和风险偏好恢复有上限。 段性修复；高股息投资重新向港股聚焦。中期展望向"结构牛，全面牛"回归，二季度本就是"结构牛"的调整期，A股消化基本面压力"幅度充分，时间不足"，维持二季度震荡市判断。 历史15%分位以下的行业：保险、小金属、交通运输（航运港口）、电池、 农林牧渔 、医疗服务。 支重要科技股业绩超预期，本周纳斯达克指数反弹明显，全球股市情绪明显转暖。 专题研究 所减仓。2）大众消费品和地产产业链明显低配。3）周期中有色金属大幅加仓。4）腾讯控股首次取代宁德时代成为公募基金重仓规模第一大个股。 0 美元/盎司。短期调整后，未来黄金价格是否还具备上行空间？本篇报告我们将用定量测算的方式来分析黄金在不同情景下的风险和机会。 电 话 会 议 l and and the submit and the more of ...

树林里分出两条路，我选了难走的那一条。16年前大学毕业，我主动选择成为一名西部计划志愿者，来 到了新疆生产建设兵团第九师一七〇团。 第一感觉是荒凉，满目沙黄。这里地处古尔班通古特沙漠边缘，是一片荒漠戈壁，地上不仅不"长"楼 房，甚至不长草。一年有180多天刮八级以上大风，掀飞过屋顶，还会卷起石头砸伤人。春天，小麦、 玉米的嫩苗刚一冒头就被吹没了。人被风沙欺负怕了，看不到生活的希望，心中也一片"荒芜"。 绿洲，是荒漠中的希望，更是人生路上的希望。如果没有，那就自己开垦。刚来那几年，我的主要工作 之一就是种树。戈壁滩上没有土，锄头派不上用场，得用十字镐一镐一镐地凿，凿完再用铁锹一点一点 地挖。干上一会儿，手就磨出了血泡。我们带着水、带着饭，在户外一干就是一天。日头毒辣，脸和脖 子被晒到脱皮。日复一日，我们试种过许多树，只有沙棘能存活下来。它的根系如网，能紧抓土壤，还 能与固氮菌共生，将空气中的氮气转化为生长所需的氮素。扎根荒漠就得顶风生长，顽强适应环境，奋 力改造自然。沙棘如此，人也一样。 与沙棘打交道的十余年，我也如沙棘般成长。沙棘扛住风沙、烈日和严寒，以顽强的生命力在茫茫黄沙 中播撒出一大片绿意，点亮了苍茫戈 ...

5 月行业配置关注：关税冲击修复与景气改善线索 20250427 摘要 • 财政政策更加落实，财政支出增速明显改善，为维持国内经济稳定提供支 撑，一季度消费边际改善，显示中国经济的韧性和结构性变化。 • 二季度出口受益于关税豁免期及转口贸易，预计基本面乐观。财政支出和 消费增速提升对股票市场有积极影响，内平准基金机制锁定向下空间，增 加市场向上弹性。 • 风险偏好回升依赖于人工智能、人形机器人、低空经济等新产业趋势的发 展，这些新兴产业为市场提供布局和投资机会，尤其在业绩真空期。 • 政治局会议强调稳定并活跃资本市场，支持未来积极变化预期。市场可能 向上突破，并体现为积极的产业趋势变化，特别是在 5 月份。 • 5 月份行业配置思路可从自上而下逻辑、八个维度打分模型及重点行业具 体推荐三方面分析，市场呈 V 型走势，消费和科技板块快速轮动。 • 一季度经济内生增长动能改善，消费服务表现突出，家电、汽车和通信器 材增长亮眼，受以旧换新及国补政策驱动。中高端制造业生产端保持较高 景气度。 • 5 月份市场偏好预计改善，布局关税影响趋缓及景气改善线索，关注前期 超跌且对美出口依赖度小的板块，以及受益于内需消费及自主 ...

2025 年 04 月 27 日 美元阶段见底，科技有望崛起 本期要点：美元阶段见底，科技有望崛起 上期提到，市场有望维持底部震荡格局，下行风险有限，事后来看， 市场不但没有下跌，反倒小幅上涨。从纯技术面的角度看，一般下行 破位之后都存在二次探底的隐忧，但一旦破位之时下跌较为充分，那 么二次探底的风险以及探底的程度都相对较小。进一步，如果此时存 在支持反弹的其他逻辑变量，那么短期甚至不太容易出现二次探底。 从短期视角看，这两个支持市场不太容易二次大幅探底的因素或都存 在，因此当下的潜在下行风险或有限。 因为近期仍存在不少结构性机会，所以我们的仓位模型在原来低仓位 的基础上对仓位的判断适当有所提升。在风格上，我们的风格轮动模 型在原来大盘占优的基础上偏向了均衡风格甚至略偏小盘风格。 在具体行业结构上，我们的四轮驱动模型建议关注电子、计算机、农 林牧渔、纺织服饰、汽车、机械设备等板块。在具体指标维度上，我 们观察到从成交金额占比的角度看，过去两周内 TMT 板块的成交占 比已有从低点小幅回升的迹象，消费板块的成交占比则已经从底部回 升了近两个月。 对于海外市场尤其是美元指数，我们的模型上周多次发出了美元见底 的信 ...

Market Performance - Major global markets recorded gains, with Nasdaq up 6.73%, DAX up 4.89%, and S&P 500 rising over 4.5% [1] - The Hang Seng Index and other indices like CSI 300 and A50 saw more modest increases, with Hang Seng Index up 2.74% [1] A-Share Market - A-share market experienced fluctuations driven by policy dynamics and earnings expectations, with the ChiNext Index leading with a 1.74% weekly gain [2] - Daily average trading volume for the week reached 1.15 trillion yuan, an increase of 38 billion yuan from the previous week [2][6] Sector Performance - The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector rose by 3.97%, while the power equipment sector saw a decline of 7.73% [3] - The automotive sector increased by 4.87%, and the beauty care sector rose by 3.8%, indicating strong performance in certain industries [5] Policy Impact - The Politburo meeting emphasized the need for more proactive macro policies, suggesting a potential acceleration in policy implementation to boost market confidence [2] - The G20 meeting highlighted the importance of dialogue and policy coordination, which may enhance financial cooperation between China and the European Central Bank [1] Investment Opportunities - Short-term focus remains on domestic demand sectors, particularly in building materials, smart home appliances, and the hospitality industry, which are expected to benefit from policy upgrades [2]

南都讯 记者蔡雯 今年以来，肇庆锚定高质量发展首要任务，勠力同心拼经济、抓项目、抢开局，推动 一季度经济运行向上向好、实现"开门红"。 统计数据显示，今年一季度，肇庆GDP620.16亿元，按不变价格计算，同比增长5.5%，跑赢全国、全省 平均增速；全市一二三产业同比均明显增长，经济指标创四年来最好开局。其中，第一产业增加值 73.56亿元，同比增长4.2%；第二产业增加值235.10亿元，同比增长5.8%；第三产业增加值311.50亿元， 同比增长5.8%。 制造业发挥支撑作用 一季度，肇庆规模以上工业增加值同比增长5.6%。 分门类看，制造业发挥重要拉动作用。一季度，规上制造业增加值同比增长5.6%，拉动全市规上工业 增长5.03个百分点；规上采矿业增加值同比下降27.4%，拉低全市规上工业增加值增速0.18个百分点； 规上电力热力燃气及水生产和供应业增加值同比增长7.6%，拉动全市规上工业增长0.63个百分点。 分行业看，拉动力较强的四个规上工业行业是电气机械和器材制造业、计算机、通信和其他电子设备制 造业、汽车制造业和有色金属冶炼和压延加工业。一季度，电气机械和器材制造业增加值同比增长 44.6%，拉 ...

Quantitative Models and Factors Summary Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Model Name: Liquidity Factor - **Construction Idea**: The liquidity factor is based on the market's liquidity conditions and the effectiveness of the main fund factor[12] - **Construction Process**: The model selects industries such as computers, electronics, machinery, electrical equipment and new energy, communications, and automobiles based on the liquidity factor. The recommended weight for the main fund factor is 5%[12] - **Evaluation**: The effectiveness of the main fund factor has stopped declining and is beginning to recover as market liquidity becomes abundant again[11][12] Model Name: Long-term Prosperity Expectation - **Construction Idea**: This factor serves as a proxy variable for prosperity investment[16] - **Construction Process**: The model selects industries such as non-bank finance, non-ferrous metals, electric power and utilities, steel, home appliances, and electronics. The recommended weight is 10%[16] - **Evaluation**: The effectiveness of this factor has recently declined, and the clustering effect has not formed[16] Model Name: Short-term Prosperity Expectation - **Construction Idea**: This factor focuses on short-term prosperity expectations, particularly in domestic demand[20] - **Construction Process**: The model selects industries such as home appliances, basic chemicals, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, automobiles, machinery, and national defense. The recommended weight is 30%[20] - **Evaluation**: The short-term prosperity expectation factor shows significant upward movement in excess returns[20] Model Name: Momentum Reversal - **Construction Idea**: This factor focuses on long-term low and short-term strong defensive sectors[23] - **Construction Process**: The model tracks one-month momentum and selects industries such as electric power and utilities, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, retail, banking, real estate, and transportation. The recommended weight is 10%[23] - **Evaluation**: The model suggests tracking defensive sectors with long-term low and short-term strong performance[23] Model Backtesting Results - **Liquidity Factor**: Excess return of the long position is shown in the chart[14] - **Long-term Prosperity Expectation**: Excess return of the long position is shown in the chart[18] - **Short-term Prosperity Expectation**: Excess return of the long position is shown in the chart[22] - **Momentum Reversal**: Excess return of the long position is shown in the chart[25] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods Factor Name: Financial Report Quality Factor - **Construction Idea**: This factor focuses on the quality of financial reports[11] - **Construction Process**: The factor is used to select industries such as banking, non-bank finance, transportation, and construction[11] - **Evaluation**: The financial report quality factor has shown concentrated absolute returns recently[11] Factor Name: Correlation Factor - **Construction Idea**: This factor focuses on the correlation between industries[11] - **Construction Process**: The factor is used to analyze industry rotation and select industries based on their correlation[11] - **Evaluation**: The correlation factor has shown concentrated absolute returns recently[11] Factor Name: Momentum Factor - **Construction Idea**: This factor focuses on the momentum of industries[11] - **Construction Process**: The factor is used to analyze industry momentum and select industries based on their momentum[11] - **Evaluation**: The momentum factor has shown concentrated absolute returns recently[11] Factor Name: Main Fund Factor - **Construction Idea**: This factor focuses on the main fund flows in the market[11] - **Construction Process**: The factor is used to analyze the effectiveness of main fund flows and select industries based on their fund flows[11] - **Evaluation**: The effectiveness of the main fund factor has stopped declining and is beginning to recover[11] Factor Backtesting Results - **Financial Report Quality Factor**: Excess return of the long position is shown in the chart[14] - **Correlation Factor**: Excess return of the long position is shown in the chart[14] - **Momentum Factor**: Excess return of the long position is shown in the chart[14] - **Main Fund Factor**: Excess return of the long position is shown in the chart[14]

Economic Performance - In the first quarter, Shandong's GDP reached 23,466 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.0% [1] - The primary industry added value was 754 billion yuan, growing by 3.7%; the secondary industry added value was 9,073 billion yuan, growing by 6.3%; and the tertiary industry added value was 13,639 billion yuan, growing by 6.0% [1] - Agricultural production showed stability, with total output value in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery reaching 143.64 billion yuan, a growth of 4.2% [1] Industrial Growth - Shandong's industrial added value above designated size grew by 8.2% year-on-year in Q1, with March seeing a growth of 8.3% [2] - Among 41 industrial categories, 36 reported growth, with a growth rate of 87.8%, and 14 industries achieved double-digit growth [2] Service Sector - The revenue of Shandong's service industry above designated size increased by 8.2% year-on-year from January to February, improving by 1.0 percentage point compared to the previous year [2] - Out of 32 service industry categories, 27 reported revenue growth, resulting in a growth rate of 84.4% [2] Cultural and Tourism Development - The 2025 Shandong Cultural and Tourism Industry High-Quality Development Conference was held, emphasizing the province's commitment to enhancing its cultural and tourism sectors [3][4] - Strategic cooperation agreements were signed, and key tourism projects were launched to promote Shandong as an international cultural tourism destination [3] Film Industry - The 20th China Film Huabiao Awards commenced in Qingdao, highlighting the city's role as a hub for film production and technology [5][6] - Qingdao has become a significant location for major film productions, benefiting from government incentives for filming [6] Agricultural Promotion - The "Good Products Shandong Special Agricultural Products" promotional event was launched in Shanghai, aiming to enhance the market competitiveness of Shandong's agricultural products [7][8] - The event featured various agricultural product categories and aimed to strengthen supply chain integration and market access [7][8] Investment and Collaboration - The fifth "Shandong Enterprises Entering Gansu" investment conference was held, with over 300 Shandong enterprises participating, marking a record high [9] - The conference focused on collaboration in various sectors, including agriculture and tourism, and has led to significant investment growth in Gansu [9]

（原标题：25Q1 全 A 业绩同比显著增长，科创增速亮眼） 以下是为您生成的中文快讯： 国泰海通策略团队的方奕、田开轩发布报告指出，截至目前，全 A 24 年 报披露率达 70.3%，年报+预告披露率达 88.3%；25Q1 季报+预告披露率达 41.3%。24 年全 A 业绩小幅 下滑，双创业绩压力大，沪深 300 有韧性。消费板块中农林牧渔、商贸表现较好；科技里电子、汽车及 金融中非银增长快；周期行业中交运、公用占优，地产建筑链跌幅居前。25Q1 全 A 业绩同比显著增 长，科创增速亮眼。科技成长复苏，传媒、电子、军工、电新等大幅增长；消费中农牧、社服增长较 快；周期行业回暖，钢铁、建材、有色增速居前，地产业绩明显提升，非银延续增长。但需注意数据统 计口径差异及已披露数据对行业代表性有限的风险。 和讯自选股写手 风险提示：以上内容仅作为作者或者嘉宾的观点，不代表和讯的任何立场，不构成与和讯相关的任何投 资建议。在作出任何投资决定前，投资者应根据自身情况考虑投资产品相关的风险因素，并于需要时咨 询专业投资顾问意见。和讯竭力但不能证实上述内容的真实性、准确性和原创性，对此和讯不做任何保 证和承诺。 股票名称 ...

在复杂多变的国际大环境下，A股上市公司陆续交出2024年业绩成绩单，一批高韧性行业和龙头企业率先突围，科技硬核创新加速突破，消费复苏蹄疾步 稳，央企价值重估成效显著，为2025年市场注入强劲信心。 根据Wind数据，截至4月15日，A股共有2426家上市公司披露2024年报，合计实现归母净利润4.64万亿元，同比增长5.3%。其中，超700家公司实现归母净利 润超20%增长，约223家公司实现业绩翻倍。 上证50企业成为全市场盈利的"稳定器"，39家已披露业绩的上证50企业合计实现归母净利润2.41亿元，同比增长10.65%；分行业看，农林牧渔、非银金融、 电子、汽车、交通运输等多行业实现2024业绩同比超20%增长。 过半上市公司2024年业绩增长，龙头企业"压舱石"作用明显 上述已发布2024年报的2426家上市公司中，有963家公司实现营业收入同比增长，占比约40%，1252家实现归母净利润同比增长，占比超50%。 归母净利润增速方面，934家公司实现双位数增长，396家公司实现超50%增长，223家公司实现超100%增长；归母净利润规模方面，365家公司超10亿元， 104家公司超50亿元，66家公司 ...