研究所 铁合金加速减产 等待煤价企稳 ----国信期货铁合金周报 行情回顾·要闻概览 研究所 2025年5月18日 研究所 目 录 CONTENTS 4 总结及后市展望 1 行情回顾 2 锰硅产业链概况 3 硅铁产业链概况 研究所 Part1 第一部分 行情回顾 数据来源：博易大师、国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 5 行情回顾·锰硅产业链价格变动 研究所 数据来源：WIND、Mysteel、钢之家、国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 4 《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》发布。双方同意大幅降低双边关税水平，美方取消共计91%的加征关税，中方相应取消91%的反制 关税；美方暂停实施24%的"对等关税"，中方也相应暂停实施24%的反制关税。中方还相应暂停或取消对美国的非关税反制措施。 双方将建立机制，继续就经贸关系进行协商。 国务院关税税则委员会发布公告，自5月14日12时01分起，调整对原产于美国的进口商品加征关税措施。其中，国务院关税税则委员 会2025年第4号公告规定的加征关税税率，由34%调整为10%，在90天内暂停实施24%的对美加征关税税 ...

Core Viewpoint - The manganese silicon market is experiencing a rebound in prices due to tightening supply and improved market sentiment, despite ongoing demand weakness and cost pressures [1][4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Manganese silicon supply has tightened significantly, with production cuts initiated by manufacturers since mid-March due to long-term losses. As of May 16, the operating rate of 187 independent manganese silicon enterprises dropped to 33.60%, with daily output at 23,250 tons, marking a decline of 17.93 percentage points and 6,230 tons from previous highs [2]. - The number of operating manganese silicon enterprises decreased from 98 in March to approximately 76, a reduction of 22.45%, and the number of operational furnaces fell from 218 to around 170, a decrease of 22.02%, indicating an ongoing trend of production cuts [2]. - Despite the tightening supply, new production capacity is still being released, and the overall supply surplus in the industry remains unchanged. If profit margins improve, companies may resume production increases [2]. Demand Trends - Demand for manganese silicon is weakening, primarily due to a slowdown in steel production activities. As of May 16, the operating rate and capacity utilization of 247 steel mills fell to 84.15% and 91.76%, respectively, with weekly steel output at 8.6835 million tons, translating to a manganese silicon weekly demand of 125,600 tons, which has declined for two consecutive weeks [3]. - Steel mills are exhibiting cautious purchasing behavior, with bidding prices reported at 5,700 yuan per ton, below market expectations, reflecting reduced demand for manganese silicon [3]. - The weakening demand is attributed to two main factors: pressure on steel mill profitability due to low steel prices and the seasonal downturn in steel demand, compounded by ongoing adjustments in the real estate market and limited growth in infrastructure investment [3]. Cost Pressures - Manganese silicon production cuts are primarily driven by long-term losses, but since mid-March, falling manganese ore prices have reduced production costs, exerting downward pressure on manganese silicon prices [4]. - The reduction in manganese silicon production has led to decreased demand for manganese ore, while expectations for supply increases are rising, particularly with the anticipated recovery of shipments from Australian miner South32 [4]. - Overall, despite recent market sentiment improvements and supply tightening driving a price rebound, ongoing demand weakness and cost pressures suggest that manganese silicon prices lack sustained upward momentum [4].

Core Viewpoint - The recent policy reforms in China's capital market, particularly the "M&A Six Guidelines," have significantly enhanced the efficiency and vibrancy of the merger and acquisition (M&A) landscape, leading to a surge in new M&A cases across various industries [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Impact - The "M&A Six Guidelines" introduced a simplified review process for M&A transactions, particularly for high-quality companies with a market capitalization exceeding 10 billion and a consistent A rating in information disclosure [2]. - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange (SZSE) has committed to processing eligible projects within 2 working days and providing review opinions within 5 working days, drastically reducing the time and uncertainty associated with traditional review processes [2][6]. - The implementation of these policies is expected to stimulate a new cycle of favorable conditions in the M&A market, encouraging high-quality companies to innovate and propose better M&A plans [1][2]. Group 2: Leading Companies - Leading companies in the Shenzhen market have actively engaged in M&A activities, with notable examples including China Tungsten High-Performance Materials Co., which successfully utilized the fast-track review mechanism for its strategic acquisition [3]. - Other prominent firms, such as BGI JiuTian Technology Co. and Lingyi iTech, are also pursuing significant acquisitions to enhance their market positions and diversify their product offerings [4]. Group 3: Strategic Acquisitions - Companies are increasingly focusing on strategic acquisitions that enhance industry integration and promote innovation, such as Inner Mongolia Electric Power Investment's acquisition of coal and power assets to transition towards cleaner energy [5]. - The trend of acquiring high-potential but currently unprofitable assets is also evident, as seen in Shenzhen MacJet Microelectronics' acquisition aimed at securing a complete production chain for electronic components [5]. Group 4: Transaction Flexibility - The "M&A Six Guidelines" encourage companies to utilize various payment methods in transactions, enhancing flexibility and accommodating diverse stakeholder needs, as demonstrated by Shanghai Fulede Technology's acquisition involving multiple payment structures [6]. - The SZSE plans to continue supporting market-oriented reforms in M&A activities while ensuring regulatory oversight to protect investor interests [6].

铸造铝合金产业链周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 莫骁雄 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019413 日期：2025年5月18日 ◆ 供应端，废铝供需双弱，合金开工率呈现下移趋势。现今废铝供应季节性紧缺， 回收商持货量有限，流通货源偏紧下持货商惜售，价格偏坚挺维稳运行，精废 价差处于相对偏低位置。废铝挤压合金厂利润，目前迈入亏损阶段，5月预计铸 造铝合金厂趋势性下调开工率，对废铝需求收缩，即原料端处于供需双弱阶段。 ◆ 消费淡季程度逐步走深，下游刚需少量采购。下游订单在二季度存在边际走弱 特征，补库相对谨慎，下游压铸企业采购积极性欠佳，以刚需为主。 ◆ 消费淡季压力下，价格上方承压显著，中期维度来看或仍以偏弱运行为主。周 内铝价受到关税缓和情绪乐观的影响而大幅上抬，然而需求端的疲弱限制 ADC12跟涨幅度。回归基本面，供需双弱逻辑或随着淡季程度更深而演变为负 反馈逻辑，价格回落。同时，ADC12-A00基差或继续收敛，关注跨品种套利机 会。 | 总结：废铝和ADC12价格小幅上调 2025/04 月环比 | | | | | 2025/04 | 月环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

证券分析师：王学恒 证券分析师：张熙，CFA 010-88005382 0755-81982090 wangxueh@guosen.com.cn zhangxi4@guosen.com.cn S0980514030002 S0980522040001 数据速览 行业研究·海外市场专题 美股 中性·维持 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 2025年05月18日 证券研究报告 | 美股市场速览 资金大量回流，科技板块领先 价格走势：科技巨头带动市场稳步回升 本周，美股处于稳步回升状态中，标普500涨5.3%，纳斯达克涨7.2%。 风格：大盘成长（罗素1000成长+7%%）>小盘成长（罗素2000成长5.2%）>小盘价值（罗素2000价值+3.6%）>大盘价值（罗素1000价值+3.2%）。 22个行业上涨，1个行业下跌，1个基本持平。涨幅居前的行业：汽车与汽车零部件（+16.2%）、半导体产品与设备（+13.3%）、运输（+8%）、媒体与娱乐 （+7.4%）、技术硬件与设备（+6.9%）；跌幅居前的行业：医疗保健设备与服务（-0.7%）。 资金流向：资金大量回流，科技板块领先 本周，美股资金流入速率大 ...

2025 年 5 月 18 日 二 〇 二 五 年 度 锰硅：矿端报价提振，锰硅震荡偏强 硅铁：主产地供应收紧，硅铁震荡偏强 | 李亚飞 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 | liyafei2@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 金园园（联系人） | 期货从业资格号：F03134630 | jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com | 报告导读： 【走势回顾】本周硅铁 2506 合约走势震荡偏强，收于 5,598 元/吨，周环比变化 116 元/吨，成交 199,314 手，持仓 36,431 手，持仓环比变化-45,598 手。本周锰硅 2509 合约价格走势偏强，收于 5,858 元/吨，周环比变化 100 元/吨，成交 9698 手，持仓 35698 手，持仓环比变化-19,483 手。 【供应】硅铁本周产量为 9.35 万吨，产量较上周环比变化-0.94 万吨，环比变化率为-9.1%，周开工 率为 31.22%，较上周变动-1.31 个百分点。锰硅本周产量 16.28 万吨，产量较上周环比变化-0.93 万吨，环比变化率为-5.4%，周开工率为 33.6%，较上 ...

Core Viewpoint - The strategic cooperation agreement signed between Fosun International and CITIC Group aims to explore new collaboration models in comprehensive finance, cultural tourism, health, and internationalization, creating a new benchmark for cooperation between state-owned and private enterprises [1] Group 1: Strategic Cooperation - The cooperation will focus on areas such as comprehensive finance, health, cultural tourism, advanced manufacturing, new urbanization, consumer trade, information technology, and rural revitalization, promoting resource sharing and mutual benefits [1][2] - Both companies aim to set new benchmarks in three areas: cooperation between state-owned and private enterprises, comprehensive financial services for private enterprises, and collaboration in cultural tourism and health [1] Group 2: Business Synergies - Fosun International has a strong presence in health, happiness, and wealth sectors, while CITIC Group has diversified operations in comprehensive finance, advanced manufacturing, advanced materials, new consumption, and new urbanization, indicating significant potential for collaboration [2] - Fosun's tourism division, which includes well-known resort brands, can enhance cooperation with CITIC's investment projects in the cultural tourism sector, exemplified by their joint project in Shenzhen's Jinsha Bay [2] Group 3: International Collaboration - CITIC Group has established a global financial service network and has operations in over 150 countries, while Fosun has a deep industrial layout in more than 35 countries, indicating vast opportunities for international collaboration [3]

| 钢材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年5月16日 | | | 問敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 机信 | 前值 | 张跃 | 某差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3240 | 3250 | -10 | 90 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3230 | 3220 | 10 | 80 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3370 | 3360 | 10 | 220 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3075 | 3060 | 15 | 165 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3118 | 3127 | -d | 122 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3150 | 3155 | -5 | 90 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3300 | 3320 | -20 | 28 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3230 | 3230 | O | -42 | | | 热卷现货(华南) ...

2025 年 5 月 16 日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 锰硅：原料价格继续探涨，锰硅宽幅震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 【基本面跟踪】 硅铁、锰硅基本面数据 | 硅铁、锰硅基本面数据 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 较前一交易日 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | | | 硅铁2507 | 5660 | -18 | 101,457 | 227,810 | | 期 货 | 硅铁2509 | 5580 | -22 | 44,263 | 155,279 | | | 锰硅2506 | 5812 | 10 | 4,593 | 23,168 | | | 锰硅2509 | 5876 | 12 | 191,490 | 380,749 | | | 项 目 | | 价 格 | 较前一交易日 | 单 位 | | | 锰硅2509 | 5876 | ...

知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 rest of 关注微信公众号 | 铁矿石产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年5月15日 | | | | 徐艺丹 Z0020017 | | | 铁矿石相关价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 仓单成本:卡粉 | 786.8 | 770.4 | 16.5 | 2.1% | | | 仓单成本:PB粉 | 824.9 | 810.7 | 14.3 | 1.8% | | | 仓单成本:巴混粉 | 809 4 | 795.4 | 14.0 | 1.8% | | | 仓单成本:金布巴粉 | 825.2 | 809.0 | 16.2 | 2.0% | | | 09合约基差:卡粉 | 81.9 | -7.6 | 89.5 | 1171.9% | | | 09合约基差:PB粉 | 87.9 | 32.7 | 55.3 | 169.3% | 元/吨 | | 09合约基差：巴混粉 | ...