智通财经6月30日电，港股早盘三大指数涨跌不一，截至午盘，恒生指数、国企指数分别下跌0.42%及 0.49%，恒生科技指数涨0.12%。盘面上，大型科技股走势分化，快手涨近3%，网易涨超2%，百度飘 红，美团、腾讯、阿里巴巴跌超1%；前期表现活跃的大金融股集体低迷，连创新高的中国银行、光大 银行、工商银行、农业银行皆走低；金价下跌，券商指不排除金价大幅回撤，黄金股普遍弱势，铜、铝 等有色金属股跟跌；乳制品股、手游股、燃气股、石油股等普遍下跌。半导体芯片股继续走强，中芯国 际录得7连涨，机构称国防军工板块具备长期成长确定性，军工股再度活跃，餐饮、新消费概念股齐 涨，老铺黄金大涨超16%再创新高，市值超1759亿港元。 港股午评：恒生指数下跌0.42% 芯片股继续走强 ...

| 申万行业 | 行业涨跌（%） | 成交额（亿元） | 比上日（%） | 领涨（跌）股 | 涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国防军工 | 4.22 | 567.82 | 29.41 | 恒宇信通 | 20.01 | | 传媒 | 2.02 | 219.07 | 27.45 | 恺英网络 | 10.03 | | 通信 | 1.24 | 390.28 | 6.10 | 中光防雷 | 20.00 | | 电子 | 1.18 | 990.87 | 17.75 | 联建光电 | 11.79 | | 机械设备 | 1.05 | 423.03 | 5.46 | 博亚精工 | 20.02 | | 纺织服饰 | 1.02 | 73.50 | 8.51 | 际华集团 | 10.11 | | 电力设备 | 0.87 | 576.23 | -12.07 | 万胜智能 | 16.25 | | 计算机 | 0.87 | 686.68 | -30.86 | 科达自控 | 13.18 | | 商贸零售 | 0.86 | 123.59 | -6.89 | 翠微股份 | 10. ...

【 摘要 】 方正证券指出，A股年内新高后补涨机会可能出现在券商、科创创业板、恒生科技方向。国泰海通称，全球稳定币法律规范优化与国内相关政 策推动数字货币及跨境支付升温。 一、焦点锐评 1 ．香港发布《数字资产发展政策宣言 2.0 》，稳定币获关注 6 月 26 日，香港特区政府发布《香港数字资产发展政策宣言 2.0 》，重申致力将香港打造成数字资产领域的全球创新中心。其中，稳定币被定位为推动金 融创新与实体经济融合的核心工具，政策从监管框架、应用场景、市场培育等多维度进行了系统性布局。财政司司长陈茂波表示，该宣言展现了特区政府 对数字资产发展的愿景，将推进应用场景多元化，构建更蓬勃的数字资产生态圈。稳定币概念板块成为市场热点， 6 月 23 日至 6 月 27 日当周，万得稳定 币指数大涨 16.7% 。 【解读】稳定币是一种旨在保持价格相对稳定的加密货币。它通过与某一稳定资产价值挂钩，如法币、黄金或其他资产，来解决传统加密货币价格波动较 大的问题，可理解为"数字货币的现金"。稳定币通过区块链技术实现了"支付即清算"，并锚定法币资产来保持币值稳定，是天然的全球货币。稳定币正从 加密工具演变为重塑跨境支付格局 ...

□本报记者王辉 头部私募仓位高企 顺时投资权益投资总监易小斌认为，近期，部分外部因素的积极变化为A股运行提供了有利环境，但起 决定性作用的仍然是内部因素。这些因素包括：市场自2024年10月高点以来的累计调整时间已超8个 月，技术面面临突破；国内政策密集出台，直接刺激了券商、金融科技等板块爆发；市场资金面充裕， 核聚变、稳定币、固态电池等热点不断涌现，有效维系了市场人气。易小斌判断，这些内外部积极因素 的中期延续性较强，有利因素不断积聚，预计将推动行情持续发展。 融智投资基金经理夏风光从宏观周期角度分析称，下半年全球主要经济体货币政策的"潜在共振"是关键 变量，美联储重启降息进程的可能性正在增大，这将为国内货币和财政政策打开空间。夏风光表 示："流动性环境的进一步改善叠加经济回暖，有望进一步推升本轮A股的阶段性趋势行情。" 来自第三方机构私募排排网的最新监测数据显示，截至6月20日，全市场股票私募机构的平均仓位水平 为74.62%，较前一周小幅上升0.37个百分点，这一数值处于今年以来的中等偏高水平。在具体仓位上， 54.31%股票私募机构仓位处于重仓或满仓(仓位大于八成)水平，24.41%股票私募仓位处于中 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant increase in defense spending commitments by NATO member countries, particularly Germany, which will allocate 5% of GDP to defense by 2035, up from the previous 2% target established in 2014 [1][2][3]. Group 1: NATO Defense Spending - NATO member countries have committed to investing 5% of their GDP in defense by 2035, a substantial increase from the previous commitment of 2% made in 2014 [1][2]. - By 2025, all NATO allies are expected to meet or exceed the 2% defense spending target, which only three countries achieved in 2014 [3]. - European allies and Canada have steadily increased their defense investment from 1.43% of GDP in 2014 to an expected 2.02% in 2024, with total defense investments projected to exceed $485 billion (adjusted to 2021 prices) [3]. Group 2: German Defense Initiatives - German Chancellor Merz emphasized the need for modernized equipment and an efficient command structure for the Bundeswehr, Germany's armed forces, in light of changing security dynamics [2]. - The German government plans to significantly increase defense spending in the coming years, focusing on developing a modern military capable of addressing new security realities [2]. Group 3: Military Industry Trends - The military industry sector has shown positive performance in the A-share market, driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions and expectations of domestic military parades [5]. - The military sector has faced challenges over the past three years, with order fulfillment and performance not meeting expectations, but is expected to enter a new cycle of equipment demand starting from Q4 2024 [5]. - Despite short-term performance pressures, the military sector is anticipated to see a recovery in demand and funding, with a current TTM price-to-earnings ratio of 86.67, indicating high investment value [5]. Group 4: Financing for Defense Companies - Since 2022, the four major banks in the UK have increased financing for defense companies by 20%, reflecting a growing commitment to support the defense sector [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that after breaking through key points, the stock market still has room for growth, with a focus on growth sectors rather than indices [1][2] - The reduction in the risk-free interest rate and the shift in expectations for the RMB from depreciation to stability or slight appreciation are significant drivers for the revaluation of Chinese assets [1][2] - The article highlights the importance of macro policies that prioritize investor returns and capital market reforms, which are crucial for changing investors' conservative attitudes towards risks [1][2] Group 2 - Economic policies and innovation support are expected to improve risk appetite and drive growth performance, with new business opportunities emerging in China [2] - The article notes that the financial sector's recent strong performance is influenced by multiple factors, including the ongoing development of stablecoin concepts and favorable domestic policies [6] - Historical analysis shows that financial stock rallies are often driven by liquidity, fundamentals, or policy events, with the sustainability of these drivers determining future market trends [8]

Market Outlook - The market is expected to show an upward breakthrough in July, with technology and non-bank sectors likely to outperform [2][3][21] - Fiscal indices and resilient consumption have led to a marginal improvement in total demand growth in Q2, creating a favorable environment for upcoming mid-year performance disclosures [3][21] - Despite high-frequency data indicating export pressures in the second half, total demand is expected to remain stable, reducing the likelihood of significant economic downturns [3][21] Industry Recommendations - Focus on sectors with expected mid-year performance improvements, particularly in technology, consumer goods, and midstream manufacturing [4][17] - Recommended sectors include electronics (semiconductors), machinery (automation equipment), pharmaceuticals (chemical drugs), defense and military, non-ferrous metals (industrial, precious, and minor metals), and computers [4][17] - Key investment tracks for July include solid-state batteries, domestic computing power, non-bank finance, defense and military, and innovative pharmaceuticals [18] Economic Indicators - Total demand growth rebounded to 5.7% in May, indicating stability, with industrial enterprise revenue growth at 3.2% [22][23] - Government financing has significantly contributed to social financing growth, supporting economic recovery and creating a favorable financial environment for the stock market [24][27] - Fiscal spending has accelerated, with a 26% year-on-year increase in broad fiscal spending in the first five months, playing a crucial role in improving economic data [30]

北交所策略专题报告 北 交 所 研 究 北 交 所 策 略 专 题 报 相关研究报告 《阅兵官宣展示新域新质战力，关注 北交所国防力量—北交所策略专题报 告》-2025.6.29 《持续中标国家电网项目、1 项国标获 准发布，2024 电力电缆营收+22%—北 交所信息更新》-2025.6.28 《新能源与无人驾驶技术赋能高毛利 新品，矿卡龙头打开增长空间—北交 所公司深度报告》-2025.6.27 优质资产价值发现 2025 上半年北交所出圈，北证专精特新指数将于 6 月 30 日发布 ——北交所策略专题报告 诸海滨（分析师） zhuhaibin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522080007 专题：2025 上半年北交所出圈，优质资产价值发现与成为投资新大陆 北交所和中证指数有限公司将于 2025 年 6 月 30 日正式发布北证专精特新指数 （899601），为市场提供多维度投资标的和业绩基准。从北交所 2025 上半年行情 来看，2025 年 1 月以来北证 50 指数开始快速增长，至 3 月 18 日到达 1411.88 点， 虽然在 4 月短期受市场影响出现快速下滑后，随后北证 50 逐 ...

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2025 06 29 年 月 日 量化周报 沪深 300、深证成指、创业板指确认日线级别上涨 沪深 300、深证成指、创业板指确认日线级别上涨。本周（6.23-6.27）， 大盘震荡上行，上证指数全周收涨 1.91%。在此背景下，沪深 300、深证 成指、创业板指、中小 100、军工、电子、计算机纷纷确认日线级别上涨。 当下，我们认为市场再次回到 4 月 7 日低点的概率基本不存在了。由于上 证指数、上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500、中证 1000、深证成指、创业板 指仍处于日线级别上涨中，且还有部分指数和板块没有确认日线上涨，因 此我们认为市场的日线级别上涨还要持续一段时间，后续市场有望继续上 涨。中期来看，上证指数、上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500、深证成指、创 业板指、科创 50 纷纷确认周线级别上涨，而且在日线上只走出了 1-3 浪 结构，中期牛市刚刚开始；此外，已有 21 个行业处于周线级别上涨中， 且 7 个行业周线上涨只走了 1 浪结构，因此我们认为本轮牛市刚刚开始， 而且还是个普涨格局。中期对于投资者而言，仍然可以逆势布局。 A ...

金融工程 | 金工定期报告 金融工程 证券研究报告 量化择时周报：突破震荡上轨后如何应对? 突破震荡上轨后如何应对? 上周周报(20250622)认为：短期市场宏观不确定性增加和指数在震荡格局 上沿位置的压制下，成交仍未到达低位，风险偏好较难快速提升，继续维 持中性偏低仓位，等待缩量信号。最终 wind 全 A 全周表现大超预期，上 涨 3.56%。市值维度上，上周代表小市值股票的中证 2000 上涨 5.55%，中 盘股中证 500 下跌 3.98%，沪深 300 上涨 1.95%，上证 50 上涨 1.27%;上周中 信一级行业中，表现较强行业包括综合金融、计算机，综合金融上涨 14.48%， 石油石化、食品饮料表现较弱，石油石化下跌 1.45%。上周成交活跃度上， 非银金融和国防军工资金流入明显。 从择时体系来看，我们定义的用来区别市场整体环境的 wind 全 A 长期均 线（120 日）和短期均线（20 日）的距离继续扩大，最新数据显示 20 日 线收于 5168，120 日线收于 5079 点，短期均线继续位于长线均线之上， 两线差值由上周的 1.09%扩大至 1.76%，距离绝对值继续小于 3%， ...