中设股份：上半年净利润预亏600万–800万元 7月16日，中设股份（002883）发布2025年半年度业绩预告，公司预计上半年实现归属于上市公司股东 的净亏损600万元至800万元，上年同期盈利1882.98万元；预计实现扣除非经常性损益后的净亏损600万 元至800万元，上年同期盈利1710.90万元。 资料显示，中设股份成立于1987年8月，主营业务是围绕交通、市政、建筑、环境四大业务领域提供全 过程工程设计咨询和工程总承包业务。 所属行业：建筑装饰–工程咨询服务Ⅱ–工程咨询服务Ⅲ 江丰电子：上半年净利润预增53.29%–65.70% 7月16日，江丰电子（300666）发布2025年半年度业绩预告，公司预计上半年实现归属于上市公司股东 的净利润2.47亿元至2.67亿元，比上年同期增长53.29%至65.70%；预计实现扣除非经常性损益后的净利 润1.7亿元至1.9亿元，比上年同期增长0.17%至11.95%。 资料显示，江丰电子成立于2005年4月，主营业务是超高纯金属溅射靶材、半导体精密零部件的研发、 生产和销售。 所属行业：电子–半导体–半导体材料 天元股份：股东拟合计减持不超过1%公司股份 7 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-07-16 现货涨跌互现，豆粕偏弱震荡 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2509合约2978元/吨，较前日变动-14元/吨，幅度-0.47%；菜粕2509合约2655元/吨，较前 日变动-4元/吨，幅度-0.15%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格2910元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差M09-68， 较前日变动+14；江苏地区豆粕现货2810元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差M09-168，较前日变动+14；广东地 区豆粕现货价格2790元/吨，较前日变动跌-10元/吨，现货基差M09-188，较前日变动+4。福建地区菜粕现货价格2660 元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差RM09+5，较前日变动+4。 近期市场资讯，美国农业部作物周报显示，截至7月13日当周，美国大豆优良率70%，一周前66%，上年同期68%； 大豆开花率47%，一周前32%，上年同期49%；大豆结荚率15%，一周前8%，上年同期17%。美国农业部出口检验 报告显示，截至7月10日当周，美国大豆出口检验量14.70万吨，上周为39.96万吨，去年同期17.53万吨。2024/25年 ...

Research Views Corn - Corn futures on the September contract first rose and then fell on Tuesday, closing with a small negative line. Last week, the main corn contract broke through support and declined rapidly, with futures significantly at a discount to spot prices. On Monday, this attracted buying, driving up the futures price. Over the weekend, corn prices in Northeast China declined, and in North China, prices continued to fall due to high arrivals at deep - processing plants and enterprises' price - cutting purchases. Traders sold actively to realize profits, and the market supply was relatively abundant. With continuous import corn auctions and poor trading results, the market's bullish sentiment weakened. Technically, the September contract should pay attention to the price pressure in the previous intensive trading area of 2320 - 2330 yuan/ton, and the recommendation is to continue shorting after the rebound ends. The view is bearish [1]. Soybean and Soybean Meal - CBOT soybeans fell on Tuesday due to good growth of US soybeans. The crop report showed that the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans increased to 70%, 4 percentage points higher than last week and higher than the market expectation of 67%. NOPA data indicated that the US soybean crush volume in June was 185.709 million bushels, a 3.7% month - on - month decrease and a 5.8% year - on - year increase. US soybean oil inventory dropped to 1.366 billion pounds, a 0.5% month - on - month and 15.8% year - on - year decline. In the domestic market, oil mills maintained a high operating rate, but terminal demand was weak, and soybean meal inventory accumulated rapidly. Some factories either suspended spot quotes or adopted a price - supporting strategy. The market is closely watching the development of Sino - US relations and the fourth - quarter oilseed procurement. The view is oscillating weakly, and it is recommended to hold long spreads for the September - January and January - May contracts of soybean meal [1]. Fats and Oils - BMD palm oil fell 2% on Tuesday due to profit - taking and weak export data. High - frequency data showed that Malaysian palm oil exports from July 1 - 15 decreased by 5.3% - 6.2% compared with the same period last month, indicating weakening export demand. The decline in crude oil prices also exerted pressure on palm oil. India's palm oil imports in June reached an 11 - month high. In the domestic market, the fats and oils market continued to oscillate, with palm oil and soybean oil slightly rising and rapeseed oil slightly falling. The decline in overseas fats and oils prices led to profit - taking by long positions. The spot demand for soybean oil was strong, and inventory was accumulating. Palm oil inventory increased steadily due to low arrivals, and rapeseed oil inventory decreased, but the improvement in rapeseed crushing margins limited the price of rapeseed oil. It is recommended to conduct intraday trading for single - side positions and hold long spreads for the September - January contracts [1]. Eggs - On Tuesday, the main egg contract shifted from August to September. The August 2025 contract continued to oscillate, closing down 0.38%, while the September 2025 contract rebounded slightly from a low level, closing up 0.36% at 3615 yuan/500 kg. Spot prices remained flat. Terminal demand was normal, and most traders bought and sold in line with the market. After the plum - rain season, eggs will gradually enter the peak demand season, but considering supply pressure, the expected price peak will be lower than last year. With the contract roll - over, the September contract rebounded slightly from a low level, and its subsequent performance should be monitored. The view is oscillating [1][2]. Pigs - On Tuesday, the main pig contract for September 2025 first rebounded in the morning and then declined, closing down 0.25% at 14,250 yuan/ton. The average daily price of live pigs in China was 14.54 yuan/kg, down 0.04 yuan/kg from the previous day. In the benchmark delivery area of Henan, the average price increased by 0.04 yuan/kg, while prices in Guangdong remained flat, and those in Shandong, Sichuan, and Liaoning decreased slightly. Farmers' selling enthusiasm was fair, but downstream orders were weak, and slaughterhouses were operating at a loss. With supply slightly exceeding demand, pig prices continued to decline. In the short term, the fundamental situation remains unchanged, and the view is that pig prices will oscillate. Attention should be paid to the impact of feed prices and market sentiment on futures prices [2]. Market Information - The US Department of Agriculture reported that the conditions of US crops mostly improved in the past week. As of the week ending July 13, the good - to - excellent rate of corn remained at 74%, that of soybeans increased by 4 percentage points to 70%, and that of spring wheat increased by 4 percentage points to 54%. Analysts expect favorable weather conditions for crops to continue [3]. - Shipping survey agencies ITS and Amspec reported that Malaysian palm oil exports from July 1 - 15 decreased by 6.16% and 5.29% respectively compared with the same period last month [3]. - A US Bank survey of global fund managers in July showed that 47% of respondents expect the Fed to cut interest rates twice in 2025, about one - third expect one cut, 10% think the rate will remain unchanged, 8% expect three cuts, and only 1% predict more than three cuts [3]. - The Minister of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of China emphasized at a meeting on July 15 the need to achieve the annual grain output target of about 1.4 trillion catties, strengthen high - standard farmland construction, and prevent disasters [4]. - The IMEA reported that the soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso state, Brazil, from July 7 - 11 was 443.58 reais/ton, down from 458.28 reais/ton in the previous week. The state's soybean meal price was 1482.06 reais/ton, and the soybean oil price was 5879.53 reais/ton [4]. Variety Spreads - The report presents various contract spreads and contract basis charts, including those for corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs, but no specific analysis of these spreads and basis is provided in the given text [5][6][8][9][12][13][14][20][24][25].

油料日报 | 2025-07-16 短期震荡偏强，中长期修复看供应 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2507合约4149.00元/吨，较前日变化+18.00元/吨，幅度+0.44%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A07+151，较前日变化-18，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：7月14日(周一)，芝加哥期货交易所(CBOT)大豆期货小幅收低，交易商表示，市场预计美国作物长 势将良好。CBOT交投最活跃的11月新作大豆合约收低1/4美分，结算价报每蒲式耳10.07美元。稍早触及三个月最 低的每蒲式耳9.98-1/4美元，跌破10美元的重要心理关口，随后跌幅有所缩减。7月15日，东北市场今日大豆价格 暂稳。黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.15元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江双鸭山宝清市场 国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.16元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江佳木斯富锦市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒 塔粮装车报价2.16元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.22元/斤， 较昨日平；黑龙江黑河嫩江市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.18元 ...

金十数据7月16日讯，布鲁塞尔方面制定了政治"保障措施"，以安抚法国的农业游说团体，并赢得巴黎 方面对与南美经济体组成的南方共同市场达成贸易协议的支持。欧盟的目标是在12月最终批准南方共同 市场协议。该协议将把欧盟与巴西、阿根廷、乌拉圭和巴拉圭联合起来，创造一个拥有7亿消费者的共 享市场。经过20年的酝酿，该协议在去年12月获得了初步同意，这是欧盟重新推动其贸易伙伴关系多样 化的努力的一部分。然而，法国已表示，如果该协议不包括缓解有强大政治影响力的农业部门的担忧的 保障措施，它将反对该协议。 （英国金融时报） 欧盟就南美贸易协议安抚巴黎 ...

当前，广东大力实施的"百县千镇万村高质量发展工程"（简称："百千万工程"），媒体被寄望 发挥重要作用。近日，广东省委农村工作领导小组办公室和省委宣传部联合印发《"媒体+"赋 能"百千万工程"农产品市场体系建设行动方案（2025-2027年）》（简称：《方案》），明确 要深挖"媒体+"力量，助力"百千万工程"，深化农产品市场体系建设，加快建设广东现代乡村 产业体系。 这是国内首个由省委农办与省委宣传部联合发出的"媒体+"助力农产品市场体系建设行动方 案，创新性将媒体系统性变革和乡村振兴有机结合，探索"媒体+"助力农业农村的新路径。 同一时间，广东全面吹响主流媒体系统性变革的冲锋号，包括南方财经全媒体集团（简称"南 方财经"）在内的广东主流媒体分别启动系统性变革。这是一场媒体变革与乡村振兴的双向奔 赴。对农业而言，媒体已成为产业链、创新链、价值链重要一环；对媒体而言，农业农村广 阔场景则成为了变革发展的试验田和大市场。 《方案》提出，广东将围绕"农业增效益、农村增活力、农民增收入"，深刻把握新时代人文 经济学的本质内涵，以"媒体+"模式打通市场、文化、生活、产业、品牌、科技、智库等领 域，到2027年推动实现促消 ...

据央视新闻报道，美国总统特朗普宣布，将自 2025 年 8 月 1 日起对菲律宾产品征收 20% 的关税。这一举措让菲律宾民众逐渐认清了现实，即一味地为美国 卖命并不能换来美国的优待，反而使自身陷入了诸多困境。 特朗普（资料图） 菲律宾作为美国的条约盟友，曾签署了《美菲共同防御条约》，本以为能在美国的庇护下获得诸多利益，然而此次被加征关税却使其如梦初醒。近年来，菲 律宾在南海问题上频繁为美国卖命。2024 年美菲防长和外长"2+2"会谈期间，双方就《访问部队协议》的新议定书达成一致，允许美军使用 9 个菲律宾军事 基地。2025 年，菲律宾又宣布向美国采购 F-16V 战斗机，妄图在军事上对华施压。然而，美国并非慈善家，其每一次"保护"背后都隐藏着利益算计。 贸易（资料图） 美国的这一做法也令其国内人士感到不满。《外交政策》网站刊文指出，加征关税可能削弱菲律宾对美国的政治支持，迫使菲政府在对美政策上采取更多对 冲策略，甚至可能损害美国在南海的航行自由行动和军事部署等。美国前官员也质疑，对菲律宾加征关税将损害美菲关系，影响美国在印太地区遏制中国的 能力，甚至有美国专家认为，加征关税弊大于利，可能适得其反，削弱美 ...

苹果期货仓单0张，环比上个交易日持平； 7月16日，国内期市农副产品板块涨跌参半，生猪主力跌近2%。截至目前，生猪主力下跌1.65%，报 14045.00元/吨；苹果主力上涨0.23%，报7864.00元/吨；红枣主力上涨0.15%，报10305.00元/吨；鸡蛋主 力下跌0.39%，报3597.00元/500千克。 7月16日农副产品期货价格行情 | 合约名称 | 开盘价 | 昨收价 | 昨结价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 鸡蛋 | 3616.00 | 3615.00 | 3611.00 | | 生猪 | 14235.00 | 14250.00 | 14280.00 | | 红枣 | 10275.00 | 10280.00 | 10290.00 | | 苹果 | 7873.00 | 7862.00 | 7846.00 | 7月15日，商品仓单日报数据显示： 截止北京时间7月15日，据基差数据显示：苹果、生猪品种合约出现'期现倒挂'(现货价格高于期货价格) 现象。 商品名称 现货价格 合约 期货价格 基差 基差率 | 苹果 | 8900 | 2510 | 7862 | 1038 ...

中国 农业生产资料集团有限公司、 中化化肥有限公司、中国化工建设有限公司、华垦国际贸易有限公 司、 浙农集团股份有限公司、 广东天禾农资股份有限公司、黑龙江供销倍丰农业社会化服务有限公司 等7家骨干钾肥流通企业联合发布关于增加钾肥供应、降价让利销售，推动肥价尽快回归合理水平的倡 议。倡议：钾肥行业上下游应正确看待当前钾肥供需形势，坚决抵制恶意炒作行为，不信谣、不传谣， 不追涨、不囤货惜售，维护市场秩序，稳定市场预期，尽快推动钾肥价格回归至合理水平。7月15日， 国内骨干钾肥流通企业在有关部门召开钾肥保供稳价会议上一致认为，当前非农业需求旺季，国内钾肥 市场供应相对充足，加之后期进口钾肥量将明显增加，农业用肥需求可得到有效保障。近期钾肥价格上 涨为投机炒作下的异常现象，已严重偏离供需基本面，这一"空中楼阁"将难以持续。 (证券时报) ...

联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 主要品种观点 宏观：美国 CPI 持续低于预期，国内二季度经济数据尚可 海外方面，温和的 CPI 数据提振市场情绪，而关税风险则持续牵动预期。6 月美国 CPI 持续低于预期，核心 CPI 同比录得 2.9%，环比录得 0.2%，关税转嫁开始显现，家具、玩具 等分项价格上涨，但被二手车、机票降价抵消，美联储官员预计将继续谨慎，密切关注暑期 数据，目前市场依旧消化 7 月不降息、9 月降息概率为 54%。关税方面，①美国对印尼对等 关税降至 19%，自身出口获零关税+非关税壁垒豁免，并防范第三国转运漏洞；②美财长表 态中美关税谈判进展顺利，暂不担忧临时关税豁免期，欧盟则为谈判失败预作反制准备。美 元指数站稳 98.5 上方，10Y 美债利率逼近 4.5%关口，美股高开低走，金价冲高回落，铜、 油震荡。近期关注美国经济数据及各国关税谈判进展。 国内方面，二季度 GDP 超预期录得 5.2%，但背后结构性问题尚未显著扭转，即生产偏 强、需求走弱：①6 月工业增加值大超预期，制造业表现亮眼，与 6 ...