王青 闫骏 冯琳 事件：根据国家统计局公布的数据，2025 年 4 月，中国制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为 49.0%，比 3 月下降 1.5 个百分点；4 月，非制造业商务活动指数为 50.4%，比 3 月下降 0.4 个百分点，其中，建 筑业商务活动指数为 51.9%，比 3 月下降 1.5 个百分点，服务业 PMI 指数为 50.1%，比 3 月下降 0.2 个 百分点；4 月综合 PMI 产出指数为 50.2%，比 3 月下降 1.2 个百分点。 4 月 PMI 数据要点解读如下： 4 月制造业 PMI 指数下降 1.5 个百分点，符合预期。背后主要有两个原因：一是外部环境急剧变 化。4 月初美国对全球加征所谓的"对等关税"，我国外部经贸环境骤然生变，外需出现明显下滑，对 制造业供需两端形成较大拖累。这是 4 月制造业 PMI 指数出现近两年来最大幅度下行的主要原因。二 是季节性因素。3 月是制造业旺季，4 月制造业景气度会有季节性下行。数据显示，过去 10 年中，4 月 制造业 PMI 指数比 3 月平均低 0.8 个百分点。 数据显示，3 月新出口订单指数比上月大幅下行 4.3 个百分点，降至 4 ...

Economic Overview - In Q1 2025, Liaoning's GDP reached 760.69 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 5.2% and rising from 18th to 16th in national rankings [1][3] - The province's economic growth is driven by industrial and consumer sectors, with the secondary industry increasing by 5.4% and high-tech manufacturing growing by 10.9% [2][3] Investment and Consumption - Fixed asset investment in Liaoning grew by 7.8%, retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.7%, and exports rose by 10.5%, all surpassing national averages [3] - Manufacturing investment rose by 13.2%, accounting for 26.7% of total investment, with significant growth in aerospace and electronic equipment manufacturing [4] - Consumer spending was boosted by policies aimed at stimulating consumption, with notable increases in retail sales of new energy vehicles (22.5%) and smart wearable devices (13.1%) [4] Trade Performance - Liaoning's exports reached a record 95.11 billion yuan in Q1, growing by 10.5%, supported by a strong performance from private enterprises [5][6] - The province's trade with Belt and Road countries amounted to 102.65 billion yuan, marking a 5.9% increase, with significant growth in exports to ASEAN and Saudi Arabia [7] City Contributions - Shenyang and Dalian are key economic drivers, with Dalian's GDP at 228.03 billion yuan (6.2% growth) and Shenyang's at 212.18 billion yuan (4.6% growth) [8][11] - Dalian's industrial output increased by 10.9%, with strong growth in equipment manufacturing and high-tech sectors [9] - Shenyang's growth was bolstered by a significant increase in the cultural and tourism sectors, with revenues from cultural and entertainment industries rising by 19% [12][13]

中信证券首席经济学家明明对《证券日报》记者表示，一季度全国GDP增速超出市场预期，经济实 现"开门红"。19省份增速超"全国线"，表明多数地区处于稳定增长通道，其中经济大省表现突出。数据 背后，区域经济协调发展、新质生产力加速形成、内需提振政策加码成为关键看点。 广东省GDP总量居首中西部省份跑出"加速度" 从GDP总量来看，2025年一季度，经济大省广东、江苏、山东位列前三，分别交出33525.51亿元、 33088.6亿元和23466亿元的"成绩单"；浙江、四川、河南、湖北、福建、上海、湖南紧随其后，排在全 国第四名至第十名，生产总值均超亿元规模。 "广东、江苏、山东三省GDP总量占全国近30%，其庞大的经济体量对全国稳就业、稳增长起到关键作 用。"明明分析称，经济大省对全国产业链供应链有着重要作用，一方面，经济大省积极进行技术研发 投入，促进创新引领与产业升级；另一方面，经济大省通过合作带动其他地区发展，实现跨区域联动。 比如，广东与广西共建产业合作园区，江苏对口支援西藏产业项目，实现资源互补。 当前全国31个省(自治区、直辖市)发布了2025年经济一季度"成绩单"。GDP总量方面，广东、江苏进 入"3 ...

| 消费增长的量价拆解——月度宏观经济回 | 2025-04-28 | | --- | --- | | 顾与展望 | | | 积极迎战外部风险——4 月政治局会议解 | 2025-04-26 | | 读 | | 外贸冲击的衍生影响开始显现——4 月 PMI 点评 研究结论 事件：4 月 30 日统计局公布最新 PMI，其中制造业 PMI 录得 49.0%，较上月下降 1.5 个百分点；非制造业 PMI 录得 50.4%，保持在荣枯线以上。 风险提示 宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 报告发布日期 2025 年 05 月 03 日 | 陈至奕 | 021-63325888*6044 | | --- | --- | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 香港证监会牌照：BUK982 | | 孙金霞 | 021-63325888*7590 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | 曹靖楠 | 021-63325888*3046 | | | caojingnan ...

近日，各地陆续公布今年一季度经济数据。从GDP增速来看，一季度近九成省份经济同比增速较去年全 年加快，全国共有20个省份GDP增速在全国整体水平(5.4%)及以上。其中，上海一季度GDP增速虽为 5.1%，但仍高于去年全年和去年一季度0.1个百分点。相较于去年全年3.5%的增速，广东的一季度数据 也有所回升。 业内人士认为，从多份"成绩单"来看，今年一季度各地经济运行开局良好，延续了去年以来稳中有进、 向新向好的态势，实现了质的有效提升和量的合理增长。 中央经济工作会议、《政府工作报告》都把"大力提振消费、提高投资效益，全方位扩大国内需求"列为 2025年各项重点任务之首，并明确提出实施提振消费专项行动。一季度，多地相继出台或部署了新一轮 扩内需促消费政策。从数据来看，成效显著。 广东经济总量居首位 在 GDP增速方面，湖北一季度GDP同比增长6.3%，创下该地近12个季度以来的最高增速。此外，浙江 和山东也均达到6.0%。 民营经济是浙江的发展底气。去年，浙江民营经济总量达6.1万亿元，占全省GDP比重达67.4%。今年一 季度，民营经济依然"挑大梁"：规模以上工业民营企业增加值同比增长9.6%，对规模以上 ...

Group 1 - The service sector's value added accounted for 61.2% of GDP in Q1, an increase of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, contributing 59.1% to economic growth, which is 1.5 percentage points higher than the previous year [1] - The modern service industry is accelerating, with significant growth in information transmission, software, and IT services, which increased by 10.3%, and leasing and business services, which grew by 10.2% year-on-year [1] - High-tech service industry fixed asset investment rose by 11.6% year-on-year, indicating sustained growth and support for optimizing service supply [1] Group 2 - Service retail sales increased by 5% year-on-year, outpacing goods retail sales growth by 0.4 percentage points, with per capita service consumption expenditure rising by 5.4% [1] - The service industry production index grew by 6.3% year-on-year in March, and the business activity index was at 50.3, indicating a positive trend [2] - The service industry business activity expectation index reached 57.5 in March, reflecting strong market expectations and a favorable outlook for related enterprises [2]

中国银河证券宏观经济研究 文/中国银河证券首席宏观分析师 张迪 、 中国银河证券宏观经济分析师助理 铁 伟奥 国 家 统 计 局 最 新 数 据 显 示 ， 2 0 2 5 年 4 月 份 ， 我 国 制 造 业 采 购 经 理 指 数 （PMI）为4 9 . 0%（前值50 . 5%），美国滥施关税影响初现。不过4月政 治局会议已经给出三大重要信号：一是保持国内储备政策的弹性；二是强 化底线思维，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期；三是加紧加快既定 政策的落实落地，加大加力重点领域的政策实施力度。 以下文章来源于中国银河宏观 ，作者中国银河宏观 中国银河宏观 . 国家统计局4月30日发布数据显示，2025年4月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.0%（前值50.5%）。建筑业商务活动指数为51.9%，比上月下降1.5个百 分点；服务业商务活动指数为50.1%，比上月下降0.2个百分点。关税的影响已全面传导至制造业企业。 供需同时收缩，出口影响较为严峻。 4月生产指数49.8%（前值52.6%）。新订单指数49.2%，新出口订单44.7%，分别下降2.6和4.3pct。4月需求下降较大， 尤其是新出口订单 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes China's economic resilience and growth amidst external pressures, particularly from the U.S. trade policies, highlighting a strong first quarter performance in 2025 that instills confidence in the global economy [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Performance - China's GDP grew by 5.4% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, indicating a strong economic start and providing positive signals to the international community [1]. - High-tech manufacturing value added increased by 9.7% year-on-year in the first quarter, showcasing the dynamism and potential of China's economy [3]. - The number of overseas buyers at the 137th Canton Fair exceeded 64,000, setting a historical record for the same period, reflecting robust trade activity [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - China is recognized as both the "world's factory" and "world's market," with a solid development foundation supported by a population of over 1.4 billion and a per capita GDP surpassing $13,000 [2]. - China maintains a complete industrial system, leading in the production of over 220 out of 500 major industrial products globally, which enhances its attractiveness to foreign investors [2]. Group 3: Response to External Pressures - China has implemented a series of countermeasures against U.S. tariffs, demonstrating a commitment to stabilizing domestic market expectations and protecting national interests [4]. - The country is expanding investment and consumption through comprehensive policies, indicating a well-stocked toolbox to address current challenges [4]. - China's approach to diversifying export markets and maintaining significant holdings of U.S. debt and strategic minerals is seen as advantageous in navigating external pressures [4].

证券研究报告 | 宏观专题研究 | 中国宏观 宏观专题研究 报告日期：2025 年 04 月 30 日 4 月 PMI：经济景气度有所回落，关注增量政策落地 2025 年 4 月 PMI 数据解读 核心观点 4 月制造业采购经理指数（PMI）录得 49%，环比下行 1.5 个百分点，出口短 期下降，拖累市场需求，以内销为主的制造业企业生产经营总体稳定。从分 类指数看，在构成制造业 PMI 的 5 个分类指数中，生产指数、新订单指数、 原材料库存指数和从业人员指数均低于临界点，4 月生产指数和新订单指数 分别为 49.8%和 49.2%，比上月下降 2.8 和 2.6 个百分点，供应商配送时间指 数高于临界点。从重点行业看，高技术制造业 PMI 为 51.5%，明显高于制造 业总体水平，其生产指数和新订单指数均位于 52.0%及以上，高技术制造业 延续较好发展态势。装备制造业、消费品行业和高耗能行业 PMI 分别为 49.6%、49.4%和 47.7%，比上月下降 2.4、0.6 和 1.6 个百分点，景气水平不 同程度回落。 大类资产方面，考虑到 4 月政治局会议提出"外部冲击影响加大，要强化底线 思维，充分 ...