Core Viewpoint - American Express (AmEx) maintains its revenue and profit guidance for 2025, supported by a resilient affluent customer base that continues to spend despite macroeconomic challenges [1][3]. Financial Performance - Q1 2025 EPS reached $3.64, exceeding estimates by 5.5% and reflecting a 9% year-over-year increase [3]. - Network volumes for Q1 2025 totaled $439.6 billion, marking a 5% increase year-over-year [3]. - U.S. Consumer Services reported a pre-tax income of $1.7 billion, up 7% year-over-year, while Commercial Services saw a decline in pre-tax income to $836 million, down 5% year-over-year [3]. - Revenue guidance for 2025 is reaffirmed at an 8-10% growth from $65.9 billion in 2024, with EPS guidance set at $15-$15.50, up from $13.35 in 2024 [3]. Market Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate predicts a 13.9% year-over-year increase in AmEx's 2025 earnings, with 2026 earnings expected to grow by 14.5% [5]. - Revenue estimates for 2025 and 2026 indicate year-over-year growth of 8.5% and 8.4%, respectively [5]. - AmEx has a history of surpassing earnings expectations, with an average surprise of 5.2% over the past four quarters [5]. Stock Performance - Over the past month, AXP shares have declined by 9.1%, aligning with the broader industry downturn, yet outperforming both the industry average and the S&P 500 Index [6]. - Competitors Visa and Mastercard experienced smaller declines due to lower exposure to credit risk compared to AmEx [6]. Valuation Insights - AmEx is trading at a forward P/E ratio of 15.84X, above the industry average of 13.98X, indicating strong investor confidence [8]. - Visa and Mastercard trade at higher multiples of 27.39X and 31.51X, respectively, reflecting their different business models and risk profiles [8]. Business Model and Strategy - AmEx's dual role as a credit card issuer and network operator allows it to capture a larger share of transaction economics, contributing to a more profitable business model [9]. - The company is experiencing strong credit performance and operational efficiency, with rising cardmember spending and expanding lending operations [9]. - A 9% year-over-year decline in Q1 provision for credit losses to $1.2 billion suggests improving credit quality and reduced expectations for customer defaults [10]. Spending Trends and Future Investments - Travel and entertainment spending remains robust, particularly in lodging, dining, and entertainment, areas where AmEx is focusing its efforts [14]. - The acquisition of Center enhances AmEx's presence in high-end dining and lifestyle experiences, reinforcing its premium value proposition [14]. - AmEx is targeting Gen Z and Millennials through marketing efforts to build brand loyalty for future growth [15]. Financial Position - At the end of Q1 2025, AmEx had $52.5 billion in cash and cash equivalents, up from $40.6 billion at the end of 2024, with short-term debt at $1.6 billion [16]. - The company returned value to shareholders by repurchasing 2 million shares for $700 million and paying $600 million in dividends during the quarter [16].

Financial Performance - Total revenues net of interest expense reached $16.967 billion, a 7% increase compared to Q1'24, or an 8% increase on an FX-adjusted basis[5] - Net income was $2.584 billion, up 6% year-over-year[5] - Diluted EPS increased by 9% to $3.64[5] Billed Business - Total billed business grew by 6% on an FX-adjusted basis[7] - U.S Consumer Services billed business increased by 7% year-over-year, with Millennials and Gen-Z contributing 14% growth[10] - International Card Services billed business saw a 13% increase, driven by a 12% rise in International Consumer and a 13% increase in International SME & Large Corp[14] Revenue Streams - Discount revenue increased by 4% to $8.743 billion[25] - Net card fees grew significantly by 18% to $2.333 billion[25] - Net interest income increased by 11% to $4.169 billion[25] Expenses and Credit Metrics - Total expenses increased by 10% to $12.487 billion, with variable customer engagement expenses accounting for 43% of revenue[40] - The net write-off rate for Card Member Loans was 2.4% in Q1'25[55] - Total provision decreased by 9% versus Q1'24, primarily driven by a net reserve release in the current period versus a net reserve build in the prior period, partially offset by higher net write-offs[67] Loans and Receivables - Worldwide total loans and card member receivables reached $207 billion, a 7% increase year-over-year on an FX-adjusted basis[16] Guidance - The company projects revenue growth of 8% - 10% for 2025[46] - EPS guidance for 2025 is set at $15.00 - $15.50, representing an adjusted EPS growth of 12% - 16%[46]