Core Viewpoint - Barrick Gold Corporation (GOLD) is expected to report first-quarter 2025 results on May 7, with anticipated higher earnings due to rising gold prices, despite facing cost challenges [1][5]. Earnings Expectations - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter earnings has been revised upward by 26.1% in the past 60 days, with an expected earnings of 29 cents per share, indicating a 52.6% year-over-year increase [1]. - GOLD has beaten the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in three of the last four quarters, averaging an earnings surprise of approximately 12% [3]. Production and Costs - Production for the upcoming quarter is estimated at 710,000 ounces, reflecting a sequential decline of around 34% and a 24% decrease from the previous year [6]. - Higher production costs are anticipated to impact first-quarter results, with cash costs per ounce of gold increasing by about 7% year-over-year in Q4 2024, and AISC rising roughly 6% [8]. Market Conditions - Gold prices have surged nearly 19% in the first quarter and are up approximately 23% year-to-date, driven by safe-haven demand amid global trade tensions and economic uncertainties [5]. - The company's stock has gained 11.6% over the past year, underperforming the Zacks Mining – Gold industry's 47.2% increase [9]. Valuation - GOLD is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 10.76, which is about 28.1% lower than the industry average of 14.96X [12]. Growth Prospects - The company is well-positioned to benefit from key growth projects that are on schedule and within budget, which should significantly contribute to future production [14]. - GOLD maintains a strong liquidity position and generates healthy cash flows, allowing it to capitalize on development and acquisition opportunities [15]. Challenges - The company faces challenges from higher production costs, including increased mine-site sustaining capital spending and labor costs, which may impact profit margins [16]. Investment Outlook - Despite the positives, the high production costs warrant caution, and holding onto GOLD shares is advisable for current investors awaiting further clarity post-earnings release [17].

The Zacks Mining – Gold industry is housed within the broader Zacks Basic Materials sector. The Q1 earnings picture for this sector looks glum. Basic Materials is among the Zacks sectors that are expected to see the biggest decline in earnings in the first quarter. Overall earnings for the space are projected to fall 17.8% on 0.7% lower revenues, per the latest Earnings Preview. Gold mining companies’ first-quarter results are expected to reflect the benefits of higher gold prices and efforts to boost opera ...

Core Viewpoint - AngloGold Ashanti PLC (AU) has seen a significant stock appreciation of 86.9% year to date, outperforming the Zacks Mining - Gold industry's 53.8% rise, while the Basic Materials sector has only risen by 0.9% and the S&P 500 has declined by 12.6% in the same period [1][3]. Performance Summary - The AU stock closed at $43.14, which is 8% below its 52-week high of $46.90 reached on April 16, 2025 [3]. - The stock has outperformed major gold mining peers such as Newmont Corporation (NEM), Kinross Gold (KGC), and Barrick Gold Corporation (GOLD), which have seen stock increases of 46.9%, 58.8%, and 29% respectively this year [3][4]. Technical Indicators - AU has been trading above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) since January 14, 2025, and is also above the 50-day SMA, indicating a bullish trend [5][7]. Drivers of Stock Surge - Rising gold prices have contributed significantly, with gold gaining 26% year to date, influenced by tariff tensions and geopolitical uncertainties. Gold briefly reached a record high of $3,500 before settling at $3,370 per ounce [10]. - The completion of the Centamin acquisition in November 2024 has added a significant asset to AngloGold Ashanti's portfolio, with the potential to produce 500,000 ounces annually [12]. - The company reported mineral reserves of 31.2 million ounces at the end of 2024, with a low adjusted net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio of 0.21, the lowest since 2011 [13]. Financial Performance - In 2024, AngloGold Ashanti's total gold production was 2.661 million ounces, with a gold income increase of 27% to $5.67 billion, driven by a 24% rise in average gold prices [15]. - Total cash costs per ounce rose by 4% year-over-year to $1,157, while all-in-sustaining costs (AISC) also increased by 4% to $1,611 per ounce [16][17]. - Free cash flow surged to $942 million in 2024 from $109 million in 2023, with earnings per share reaching $2.21 compared to a loss of 11 cents in 2023 [18]. Future Projections - Gold production for 2025 is projected to be between 2.9 million and 3.225 million ounces, indicating a year-over-year growth of 9-21% [19]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AU's 2025 sales is $7.27 billion, suggesting a 25.5% year-over-year growth, with earnings expected to grow by 12.7% [20]. Valuation Insights - AngloGold Ashanti is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 17.34X, which is above the industry average of 16.88X and higher than its five-year median [24]. - The average price target for AU suggests a potential decline of 12.4% from its last closing price, with the highest target indicating a dip of 2.6% [30]. Strategic Developments - The proposed joint venture with Gold Fields to combine their Tarkwa and Iduapriem gold mines is currently on hold due to pending approvals from the Ghana government, which could impact future production and cost efficiencies [32][34].