Core Insights - Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc. (NYSE: ARI) did not generate sufficient distributable profits to cover its dividend in the first quarter of 2025, which is a significant concern for investors [1] Company Summary - The primary takeaway from ARI's 1Q25 earnings presentation is the inability to earn its dividend through distributable profits, indicating potential financial instability [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company raised $270 million of new capital year-to-date, achieving this at a premium to book value, which is accretive to shareholders [33] - Net interest income continues to trend up as new investments with attractive yields are added to the portfolio while financing costs trend down [32] - The leverage ratio increased from 7.4% to 7.8% due to a decline in book value [72] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The portfolio generated a total return of 2.6% during a quarter with significant swings in rates, validating the investment strategy [36] - Agency RMBS spreads widened sharply, ranging from 145 to 160 basis points over treasuries by the end of the quarter [42] - The company maintained a disciplined liquidity-focused risk management process, allowing it to navigate market volatility without crystallizing losses [43] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Long-end treasury yields unexpectedly rose, reflecting selling pressure, while the dollar experienced weakness against major currencies [15] - The market saw a classic risk-off reaction following the April 2nd tariff announcement, leading to declines in equity prices and sharp drops in interest rates [40] - The availability of repo funding remained strong, with costs stable between 15 and 17 basis points over SOFR [63] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company continues to see compelling opportunities in agency residential mortgage-backed securities while managing through a rapidly changing landscape [55] - A focus on disciplined risk management and real-time adjustments is emphasized as the regulatory and political landscape evolves [27] - The company is preparing for potential changes in the GSEs and is evaluating outlier scenarios for market reactions [24] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management views the current environment as favorable, with a steeper yield curve and lower financing costs supporting the business model [8] - The company is prepared for continued volatility in the financial and economic environments, expecting surprises in the future [28] - The dividend is set based on long-term returns, capital availability, and overall risk, with a recent increase reflecting confidence in generating attractive returns [30] Other Important Information - The company has operated with generally lower leverage and a robust liquidity position, allowing it to remain agile amid external shifts [21] - Management emphasizes the importance of transparency in investments, with all assets marked and reflected in earnings and book value [57] - The executive team collectively owns nearly 2% of the company, aligning their interests with those of shareholders [58] Q&A Session Summary Question: Repo funding costs and availability - Repo funding costs have been stable between 15 and 17 basis points over SOFR, with strong availability in financing markets [63] Question: Hedging strategy amidst volatility - The company is comfortable with its current hedge composition, primarily using swaps as a natural hedge for the mortgage portfolio [65] Question: Investing opportunities in the current environment - The steeper curve and wider spreads present significant ROE potential, with diversification across the coupon stack providing duration certainty [70] Question: Book value and dividend implications - The book value includes the dividend accrued, and leverage is at 7.8 times, reflecting a cautious approach to adding risk [76][78] Question: Preparing for GSE changes and potential spread widening - The company is focused on maintaining liquidity to withstand price shocks and is conducting scenario analysis for potential GSE changes [122][91]

Two Harbors Investment (TWO) Q4 2024 Earnings Call January 30, 2025 09:00 AM ET Company Participants Margaret Karr - Head of IR & CommunicationWilliam Greenberg - President and Chief Executive OfficerWilliam Dellal - VP & Interim CFONicholas Letica - VP & Chief Investment OfficerMikhail Goberman - VP - Equity ResearchFrancesco Labetti - Equity Research Associate Conference Call Participants Marissa Lobo - AnalystJake Katsikas - Equity Research Analyst Operator Good morning. My name is Maddie, and I will be ...