关于港股后市 港股仓位已成为许多A股基金经理获取业绩排名的关键。今年以来，无论是传统板块还是新技术、新消 费领域，港股展现出了强劲的上涨趋势，不少A股基金经理借助所管理的港股基金产品显著拉动了基金 业绩排名和口碑。基于港股市场的投资吸引力，多位公募人士判断，新技术、新消费与医药赛道是港股 三大核心主线，考虑到当前港股的资金渠道仍然以南向资金为主，外资对港股市场稍有迟疑，因此港股 市场未来有望继续获得更多海外资金覆盖。 摩根士丹利基金一位人士分析认为，近期全球资本的回流影响估值修复的港股资产，从中长期维度仍面 临着很高的配置价值，虽然也需要关注海外市场的波动与内需驱动的国内环境之间适时的开展再平衡策 略，但考虑到目前国内政策上具备很强的战略定力，港股的白马低估值行业普遍具有很高的左侧布局价 值，前期估值消化明显的影视院线、调味发酵品以及非白酒食品等具有不错的操作价值，而备中长期发 展逻辑的行业如科技成长、高端制造、新消费则值得持续重视。 恒生指数低开0.4%，恒生科技指数跌0.32%。名创优品跌近15%，公司第一季度期内利润为4.17亿元， 较上年同期下降29%。 嘉实港股互联网产业基金经理王贵重判断，港股在今 ...

大消费 [T分析师able_A：uthor 罗鹏 ] 执业证书号：S1030523040001 电话：0755-23602217 邮箱：luopeng@csco.com.cn 研究助理：赵靖 电话：0755-23602217 邮箱：zhaojing2@csco.com.cn 公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 证券研究报告 4 月社零可选消费表现亮眼 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 5 月 26 日 [Table_ReportType] 大消费行业周报（5 月第 4 周） 计算机 2019 年 Q3 综合毛利率（%） 9.7 综合净利率（%） 6.9 行业 ROE（%） 25.6 行业 ROA（%） 5.2 利润增长率（%） 4.21 资产负债率（%） 149 期间费用率（%） 4.54 存货周转率（%） 42.56 讯 1) 上周（5/19-5/23）大消费板块表现分化。家用电器、纺织服 饰、食品饮料、美容护理、社会服务、商贸零售周涨跌幅分别 为+1.21%、-0.11%、-1.27%、-1.48%、-1.60%、-1.61%，沪深 300 指数下跌 0.18%。食品饮料、家用电器、纺织服饰、 ...

【 机构观点综评 】 方正证券指出，展望后市，小微盘占优行情特征或将延续。博时基金认为，存款 挂牌利率下移，汇率约束的缓解，货币市场以及短端利率补降可能会延续。 一、焦点锐评 1．LPR迎来年内首降，六大行同步调降存款利率 二、权益市场 1.中信证券：特朗普政策不确定性仍是大类资产配置主线 中信证券明明认为，大类资产配置方面，特朗普政策不确定性仍然是大类资产配置的主线，未来需要关 注外贸政策缓和或焦点转向内政的可能性。而在目前特朗普影响市场的模式中，"特朗普看跌期权"仍然 生效。在今年底至明年初之前，美债或为4%~5%区间震荡行情；黄金仍然是最具确定性的资产；特朗 普影响下美股的胜率仍然偏低；美元或偏弱震荡。但若特朗普政策焦点转向内部，美股和美债的拐点可 能提前到来。 2.方正证券：小微盘占优行情特征或延续 方正证券指出，展望后市，小微盘占优行情特征或将延续，主要判断依据包括：一是当前资本市场无系 统性风险，整体上A股风险偏好在不断回升。二是工业品价格持续收缩、上市公司盈利仍在筑底，经济 转型探索新方向过程仍在延续。三是流动性持续宽裕，无风险利率处于历史低位。四是新质生产力持续 发展，并购重组进一步释放市场活 ...

Group 1: Amer Sports Financial Performance - Amer Sports reported Q1 revenue of $1.473 billion, a 23% year-over-year increase, with a 26% increase at constant exchange rates [2] - Operating profit grew by 97% to $214 million, while adjusted operating profit increased by 79% to $232 million [2] - The Asia-Pacific region showed significant growth, with Greater China revenue up 43% to $446 million [2] Group 2: Brand Performance and Strategy - The three main business segments (outdoor, mountain, and ball sports equipment) all experienced growth, with increases of 28%, 25%, and 12% respectively [2] - The CEO highlighted the high-end technical brand portfolio's role in capturing market share in the global sports and outdoor market [2] - Arc'teryx, despite no net new store openings in Q1, plans to add approximately 25 stores globally this year [2] Group 3: Asics Financial Performance - Asics reported Q1 net sales of 203.8 billion yen (approximately $100 billion), a 20% year-over-year increase [5] - The Greater China region continued to be a growth engine, with sales up 21.5%, outpacing the overall group growth [5] - Asics has separated its professional sports line and retro trend line to target different audiences effectively [5] Group 4: Asics Brand Strategy - The sub-brand Onitsuka Tiger saw a 50% increase in global sales, primarily driven by the Chinese market [6] - Asics is expanding its channel network and engaging with local communities through events and collaborations [5] Group 5: Wahaha and Farmer Spring Controversy - Wahaha faced scrutiny over outsourcing its bottled water production to Jinmailang due to increased market demand [7] - The controversy raised concerns about brand trust and supply chain management in the beverage industry [8] Group 6: 52TOYS IPO and Market Position - 52TOYS submitted its IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, focusing on IP toy products [15] - The company relies heavily on licensed IP products, which accounted for over 64% of total revenue in recent years [15][16] - 52TOYS struggles with brand recognition compared to competitors like Pop Mart, which has a more distinct IP strategy [16] Group 7: Convenience Store Market - Meiyijia leads the Chinese convenience store market with 37,943 stores and plans to add 4,000 more in 2024 [12] - The company has a low franchise threshold and focuses on community services to drive growth [12][13] - Meiyijia's supply chain capabilities contribute significantly to its profitability and market position [13] Group 8: Starbucks and Tea Market - Starbucks launched two tea latte products, marking its entry into the tea coffee market [22] - The company emphasizes local strategies and consumer preferences to enhance its market position in China [23] Group 9: Miniso Financial Performance - Miniso reported Q1 revenue of 4.427 billion yuan, an 18.9% year-over-year increase, but faced a 28.8% decline in net profit [25] - The company opened 978 new stores, increasing its total to 7,768 [25]

北交所策略专题报告 2025 年 05 月 25 日 北交所排队企业整体高质量，关注 2025 打新机会 北交所研究团队 ——北交所策略专题报告 诸海滨（分析师） zhuhaibin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522080007 专题：北交所排队企业整体高质量，关注 2025 北交所打新机会 上市节奏角度来看，2024 年全年北交所共上市 23 只新股。截至 2025 年 5 月 23 日，2025 年 1-5 月北交所共上市 4 家企业。从发审会节奏上来看，随着申报企业 补充 2024 年报数据的结束，下周 2 家公司上会审核，未来节奏或有提升。从首 发募集资金角度的中签率来看，募集资金较高的企业申购中签率同样较高，2024 至今北交所合计上市 27 家企业中签率均值达 0.09%，但其中首发募集资金超过 2 个亿企业的平均中签率在 0.14%，首发募集低于 2 个亿企业的平均中签率在 0.06%。从当前北交所排队企业看利润体量整体有所较高，截至 2025 年 5 月 23 日，94 家排队中企业 2024 年归母净利润均值达 8967.02 万元，高于 266 家北交 所企业 2024 年归母 ...

震荡区间下限：1. 5月政策兑现成为主要矛盾阶段，宽货币及时全面兑现，并与稳定资本市场 直接关联。2. 平准基金有力托底资本市场下行风险，并兼顾舆情管理，形成向上支撑力。 短期调整：1. 宏观上，短期美国不确定性增加。美债标售高利率，特朗普减税方案部分妥 协，"金穹"天基导弹系统引发了市场担忧。弱美元、弱美股、高美债利率的组合，指向资本市 场风险偏好回落。从基本面传导角度，美国经济下行风险增加，也会强化中期中国外需回落担 忧。2. 结构上，前期结构主线不清晰阶段，小微盘占优，短期微观结构恶化，触发调整。3. 博 弈公募持仓向业绩比较基准靠拢的行情，短期阻力也明显增加。我们认为，绝大部分基金经理 都有必要重新检视业绩比较基准的选择，但绝不是所有基金经理都应该向业绩比较基准靠拢。 基金持仓向业绩比较基准靠拢之下，潜在资金流入行业(非银、银行、建筑、公用事业、煤 炭)，实际流入资金占流通市值比例也偏低。这可能只是"买预期，卖兑现"的投资案件。另 外，市场预期6月业绩比较基准调整落地，彼时市场博弈的锚定基准和5月可能明显不同。我们 认为，这个短期博弈性价比已至低位，行情已经基本结束。 二、A股中期重回结构牛，仍依赖于 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a bullish probability of 62% for the coal industry and 61% for the media industry [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant inflows in the food and beverage, as well as mechanical equipment sectors [5]. - The active equity funds have increased their positions notably in the beauty and personal care sector [5]. - The ETF share growth is particularly high in the military industry, while the automotive sector has seen a decrease in share [4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Investment Rating - The coal industry has a bullish probability of 62% and the media industry has a probability of 61% [4]. Fund Flow Insights - The food and beverage sector ranks first in net inflows, while mechanical equipment ranks second [4]. - Active equity funds have increased their positions in the beauty and personal care sector, indicating a positive outlook [5]. ETF Insights - The report identifies ETFs with high growth potential based on the AI model scoring above 0.8, focusing on those with a recent average daily trading volume exceeding 30 million [7]. - Specific ETFs highlighted include the Hong Kong Dividend Low Volatility ETF and the Hong Kong Medical ETF [8].

2025 年 05 月 24 日 策略研究团队 理解消费今年以来的领涨——从总量到结构 ——投资策略周报 韦冀星（分析师） weijixing@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524030002 无论是 4 月以来，还是年初以来，消费均领涨 无论是 4 月以来（尤其是对等关税实施后），还是今年年初以来，市场领涨的细分板 块均以消费为主，其中又以个护用品、动保、饲料、休闲食品、化妆品等品种涨幅 最为领先。我们自 2.12 春季策略展望以来推荐的消费细分行业则包括服装鞋帽、汽 车（包括两轮电动车）、零售、食品、美容护理、养殖、饲料、零食。 如何理解消费今年以来的领涨——从总量到结构 1、预期差 1：财政即便是弱扩张，社零也有更高弹性。我们发现，社零增速的弹性 对财政支出周期非常敏感。许多投资者倾向于认为，消费是显著的后周期品种，往 往需要投资或出口有显著的改善之后，消费的提振才慢慢显现。但我们发现一个预 期差：社零同比增速与名义 GDP 增速的轧差可以看做社零的弹性，当财政支出在下 行（收紧）周期时，社零的弹性减弱，而当财政支出在上行（扩张）周期时，社零 的弹性上行。随着财政支出周期从 2023-2024 ...

截至5月20日，基金产品收益差距"一度"破100个百分点。 Wind数据显示，截至目前的公募基金产品年内收益最高达73.01%，最低亏损则达到27.55%，两者业绩悬殊在 不足半年时间 "一度"破100个百分点。具有微妙意味的是，排名最强的基金产品的核心重仓股主要指向过去一 年机构筹码分布较少的美容化妆品以及宠物食品股等，而排名最弱的基金产品则将重仓股指向过去一年机构筹 码高度抱团的AI算力与科技股等。 业内人士认为，低配赛道变成高配赛道或弱势行业变成强势行业的股价弹性最具吸引力，而高配赛道或强势赛 道变成更强局面的难度更大，面临的机构抛压的可能性也更大。多位基金经理也指出，相比预期过高的AI、 人形机器人等，新消费赛道的预期差更具吸引力，应持续关注消费年龄结构及新生活方式带来的新兴投资机 会。 赛道冷热变化提高基金弹性 Wind数据显示，截至5月20日，华夏北交所精选基金年内收益已达73.01%，而上海地区一家公募旗下偏股基金 年内亏损则达到27.55%。这使得未达半年时间的背景下，公募基金产品的年内收益差距 "一度"破100个百分 点。这两只基金产品之间出现的巨大业绩差距，在某种程度上还体现出弱势赛道与强 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of three key financial metrics—ROE, cash flow, and growth potential—as the foundational pillars for assessing a company's value and its ability to navigate market cycles [1][8]. ROE Analysis - The overall ROE for the A-share market decreased from 5.6% in 2023 to 4.3% in 2024, indicating a general decline in profitability across the market [5][7]. - The household appliance sector leads with an ROE of 8.2%, supported by a 0.75 asset turnover ratio and a 6.1% net profit margin, exemplifying a high-frequency turnover and reasonable profit model [6][7]. - The coal industry saw its ROE plummet from 12.0% to 7.3%, primarily due to a significant drop in net profit margin from 10.1% to 6.7% as resource advantages diminished [7][8]. - The real estate sector is the only one with a negative ROE of -0.4%, driven by a -3.2% net profit margin and a high leverage ratio of 3.3, indicating unsustainable high-leverage models under declining demand [7][8]. Growth Potential - The electronics industry leads in revenue growth with a 17.4% increase, driven by surging demand for AI computing power and semiconductor manufacturing [9][11]. - Nine industries, including electronics and automotive, reported net profit growth, with the electronics sector achieving a remarkable 35.8% increase in net profit [11][12]. - The computer industry has the highest R&D investment ratio at 12.9%, indicating a focus on building technological barriers for long-term value creation [12][13]. Cash Flow Insights - The coal industry has the highest operating cash flow, amounting to 2,111.3 million, with a strong profitability ratio of 1.6, indicating robust cash flow coverage [16][19]. - Only 44% of A-share companies have a healthy cash flow ratio, with 56% showing concerning profitability quality, highlighting potential funding shortages for many firms [19][20]. - The top five industries by operating cash flow (oil and petrochemicals, communication, public utilities, transportation, and automotive) demonstrate a trend of stable cash flow generation, supporting capital expenditures without excessive reliance on external financing [20][21].