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Group 1: Core Views - The report suggests that the food and beverage industry is expected to see a valuation recovery as market sentiment improves, with a focus on low-priced leading companies in the liquor sector and structural opportunities in the food sector [2][7][10]. Group 2: Liquor Sector - The liquor sector is experiencing a phase of demand decline due to seasonal factors and regulatory impacts, leading to pressure on high-end liquor prices, while mass consumption remains stable [7][13]. - Major companies like Moutai are expected to maintain their performance due to strong brand positioning, while others are entering an adjustment phase, with varying adjustment speeds among companies [7][14]. - Q2 performance forecasts for major liquor companies indicate a range of revenue and profit changes, with Moutai expected to see a 9% increase in both revenue and profit [14][15][16]. Group 3: Food Sector - The food sector shows signs of recovery, with segments like beverages, snacks, and pet food experiencing upward trends, while beer and restaurant supply chains face structural challenges [21][24]. - The beverage industry remains vibrant with new product launches and a clear trend towards reduced sugar options, while competition intensifies [24][30]. - Dairy products are seeing mixed performance, with some segments like low-temperature dairy and cheese growing, while others face challenges [24][33]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading liquor companies with a safety margin for investment, as well as food companies that are expected to exceed mid-year performance expectations [10][28]. - Specific companies highlighted for potential investment include Nongfu Spring, Uni-President China, and Tianwei Foods, among others [10][28].

【导读】北向资金连续加仓A股：增持新兴科技，减持食品饮料等板块 近日，沪深交易所官方数据披露最新北向资金数据，上半年外资持仓情况浮出水面，外资连续两个季度 加仓A股。 外资连续两个季度加仓A股 数据显示，截至今年二季度末，北向资金共持有2907只个股，持股数合计1232亿股，持仓市值合计约为 2.29万亿元。相较于2024年末，北向资金持仓市值增加871亿元；相较于2025年一季度，北向资金持仓 市值增加超500亿元。 "慢牛"新格局 近期，多家券商发布下半年策略报告，对A股下半年行情整体持乐观预期，有券商指出，A股或迎来"慢 牛"新格局。 中金公司表示，下半年，在不确定性因素明显消除前，指数或持续窄幅波动。考虑到国际新秩序重构下 我国基本面具有显著韧性，以及估值占优，预计A股下半年节奏上或将"前稳后升"。 按照申万二级行业分类，北向资金持仓市值超百亿元的行业有53个，持仓市值最高的五大行业分别为电 池、半导体、白酒、股份制银行和白色家电，持仓市值分别为1754亿元、1349亿元、1341亿元、1234亿 元、1036亿元。 与2024年末相比，持仓市值前五大行业排名稍有变化。电池行业仍居榜首，北向资金持仓市 ...

【 导读 】 北向资金连续加仓A股 ： 增持新兴科技，减持食品饮料等板块 见习记者 储是 近日，沪深交易所官方数据披露最新北向资金数据，上半年外资持仓情况浮出水面，外资连 续两个季度加仓A股。 外资连续两个季度加仓A股 数据显示，截至今年二季度末，北向资金共持有2907只个股，持股数合计1232亿股，持仓市 值合计约为2.29万亿元。相较于2024年末，北向资金持仓市值增加871亿元；相较于2025年 一季度，北向资金持仓市值增加超500亿元。 按照申万二级行业分类，北向资金持仓市值超百亿元的行业有53个，持仓市值最高的五大行 业分别为电池、半导体、白酒、股份制银行和白色家电，持仓市值分别为1754亿元、1349亿 元、1341亿元、1234亿元、1036亿元。 与2024年末相比，持仓市值前五大行业排名稍有变化。电池行业仍居榜首，北向资金持仓市 值超10亿元的电池行业公司共计7家；宁德时代、亿纬锂能、先导智能居前三。二季度，北向 资金集中加仓半导体板块，行业排名从第五位升至第二位，白色家电和白酒行业排名有所下 降。 与此同时，北向资金加仓出现结构性调整。一季度加仓标的主要有两大类：科技和消费。二 季度，科技 ...

中信证券：当下迎来平衡港A配比的时机 从2025年更宽的角度，投资人要积极转变认识，否则就难以理解中国股市的走向以及错失行情先机。中国股 市"转型牛"的升势已经形成，关键动力来自股市贴现率的系统性降低。包括经济结构的有利转变与经济社会的 不确定性降低；无风险利率的降低，高收益无风险资产消减，投资股票的机会成本下降，增量入市进入历史转 折；风险认识的系统性下降，投资人接纳风险的意愿系统性提高。维持之前判断，预期上修斜率将放慢，下一 阶段股指或横盘整固，但整固是为蓄力新高。短期高低切换，聚焦"反内卷"；金融行情未结束，成长题材轮 动。 6月以来市场最大的变化是逐步从存量市场转为增量市场，不过A股当中机构易于接受的板块短期内涨幅较 大，进入到高位震荡阶段。相对而言处于低位的是受价格因素主导的制造板块，当下的"反内卷"是类比于"一 带一路"的长期叙事，在增量资金流入环境下有助于撬动这些低位板块。此外，港股当前的估值洼地特征又显 现出来，在巨大的配置压力下，保险资金投资范围扩圈是大势所趋，南下资金有望再次回暖。我们判断当下是 增配港股的时机，A股的有色、AI硬件、创新药、游戏和军工板块则将继续轮动，低位制造板块有望在增 ...

Company News - Romashi has officially ceased operations and closed multiple flagship stores on various platforms due to ongoing quality issues, with employees reportedly packing their belongings and seeking legal counsel for unpaid benefits [8][9] - The first low-altitude economy asset-backed security (ABS) in China has been listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, with a total issuance scale of 584 million yuan, aimed at supporting the development of the low-altitude economy [11] - Muyuan Foods, known as "Pig King," has reported a staggering net profit increase of 9 times for the first half of 2025, with expected profits between 10.5 billion to 11 billion yuan, driven by increased pig sales and reduced breeding costs [12][13] - Renrenle, once a leading retail chain, has officially delisted from the stock market after entering the delisting period on June 13, 2025, marking the end of its 15-year journey in A-shares [14] - Knight Dairy has been investigated for significant losses in futures trading and failure to disclose these losses in a timely manner, highlighting the struggles of regional dairy companies [15][16] - Seres Group has projected a net profit of 2.7 billion to 3.2 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 66.2% to 97% [16] - GAC Fiat Chrysler has been declared bankrupt due to its inability to repay debts, as confirmed by the management [17] - Honda China reported a 24% year-on-year decline in vehicle sales for the first half of 2025, with total sales of 315,152 units [18] Industry Insights - The real estate market in Chengdu has outperformed Shanghai, with over 176,000 homes sold in the first half of 2025, making it the top city for residential transactions in China [19] - Hong Kong's real estate market has seen a resurgence, with 37,000 transactions in the first half of 2025, the highest in three and a half years [20] - Guangdong has 17 banks listed among the world's top 1,000 banks, reflecting a strong presence in the financial sector [21] - Santander Bank has received approval to establish a branch in Shenzhen, expanding the presence of foreign financial institutions in the region [22][23] - The banking wealth management market has shown resilience, with a total market size of 30.97 trillion yuan as of June 2025, despite declining deposit rates [25]

研究报告 Research Report 13 Jul 2025 中国 & 香港 & 美国可选消费 China (A-share) & Hong Kong & US Discretionary 可选消费 W28 周度趋势解析：临近业绩披露期，基于预期差股价波动加剧 Analysis of Weekly Discretionary Trends: With the Earnings Season Approaching, Expectation Gaps Drive Heightened Fundamental Volatility 资料来源： Factset, HTI 85 100 115 130 145 Jul-24 Oct-24 Jan-25 Apr-25 Jul-25 HAI China (A-share) Discretionary MSCI China Related Reports 可选消费 W26 周度趋势解析：新老消费共振向上 Analysis of weekly discretionary trends: The Old and New Consumption sectors resonat ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating a positive outlook for selected companies within the sector [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant differentiation within the industry, particularly in the liquor segment, where companies are actively seeking transformation amid market pressures. It emphasizes three main investment themes: leading brands, high-certainty regional brands, and flexible companies benefiting from recovery [1][2]. - In the beer and beverage sector, companies like Yanjing and Zhujiang are expected to show strong profit growth, with Yanjing projected to achieve a net profit of 1.06 to 1.14 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 40% to 50% [3]. Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - The liquor industry is experiencing a challenging half-year, with demand and policy impacts leading to a slowdown in sales. The report anticipates that the performance expectations for the mid-year and the entire year of 2025 have been largely adjusted [2]. - Key players like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye are focusing on service enhancement and transformation strategies to navigate the current market conditions. The report suggests that the upcoming month of September will be critical for assessing the impact of policies and consumer demand [2]. Beer and Beverage Sector - Yanjing Beer is expected to achieve a net profit of 1.06 to 1.14 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 40% to 50%. Zhujiang Beer is also projected to see a profit increase of 15% to 25% [3]. - Eastroc Beverage is forecasted to generate revenue of 10.63 to 10.84 billion yuan, with a net profit of 2.31 to 2.45 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 33% to 42% year-on-year [3]. Consumer Goods - The report notes that companies like Youyou Foods and Miaokelando are expected to report significant profit increases, with Youyou Foods projecting a revenue growth of 40.91% to 50.77% [7]. - The overall consumer goods sector is highlighted as a space to watch for growth, particularly for companies that are innovating and expanding their market reach [7].

这个周末，"娃哈哈宗馥莉被起诉"的消息刷屏了！到底怎么回事？ 7月13日，据环球时报等媒体报道， 娃哈哈董事长宗馥莉因资产纠纷在香港被起诉 ，三名原告 是宗继昌（Jacky Zong）、宗婕莉（Jessie Zong）和宗继盛（Jerry Zong）。原告律师称，这 三人是宗馥莉的 "同父异母弟妹" ，此前，宗馥莉一直被公众视为宗庆后（已故）的独生女。 原告律师称，三人同时在杭州法院提起诉讼，要求获得各价值 7亿美元（共21亿美元，约151 亿元人民币） 的信托基金权益。据称这些基金是其父生前承诺设立。 原告方声称，宗庆后曾指示下属通过香港汇丰银行设立信托，汇丰账户2024年初余额 约18亿 美元 ，文件显示，截至去年5月，已有110万美元被转出该账户。原告方要求冻结该汇丰账 户，宗馥莉执行父亲遗嘱， 支付数百万美元资产利息 ，并赔偿资金转移造成的损失。 1982年出生的宗馥莉，在早年留学归来后，并未直接进入集团核心管理层，而是先从市场部基 层做起，逐步熟悉饮料生产、供应链管理与渠道布局。她的商业能力，从一手打造的宏胜饮料 集团可见一斑：该企业从一条生产线起步，发展至拥有20个生产基地、40多家子公司及100 ...

2025 年 07 月 13 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 食品饮料 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 食品饮料 沪深300 相关研究报告 《白酒承压待布局，魔芋赛道涌生机 —行业周报》-2025.7.6 《白酒持续探底，新消费标的值得重 视—行业周报》-2025.6.29 《"禁酒令"纠偏催化反弹，重视板块 底部机会—行业周报》-2025.6.22 白酒布局机会渐显，新消费择优长期持有 ——行业周报 张宇光（分析师） 张思敏（联系人） zhangyuguang@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520030003 zhangsimin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790123070080 核心观点：战略布局头部酒企，坚守优质新消费标的 7 月 7 日-7 月 11 日，食品饮料指数涨幅为 0.8%，一级子行业排名第 23，与沪深 300 基本持平，子行业中白酒（+1.4%）、保健品（+1.4%）、啤酒（+1.2%）表现 相对领先。本周食品饮料行情出现变化，新消费标的高位震荡；传统消费底部有 企稳迹象。本轮白酒行 ...