| Cleiking | 日度策略参 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 发布日期:2025/05 | | | | | | | | 趋势研判 | 行业板块 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | 品种 | 股指 | 持有的多头头寸考虑减仓,警惕进一步调整风险。 | 震荡 | | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | 起 示 | 登间。 | 宏观金融 | | | | | 短期金价或进入盘整;但中长期上涨逻辑尚未改变。明终 | 賣金 | 農汤 | 整体跟随黄金,但关税超预期结果将利好白银商品属性,因此短 | | | | | 期银价韧性或强于黄金。 | 近期美国消费者信心指数走低、通胀预期走高等压制市场风险偏 | | | | | | | 好, 叠加铜下游需求有所转弱, 铜价短期偏弱运行。 | 近期电解铝低库存对铝价仍有支撑,叠加氧化铝价格反弹提振, | 看头 | | | | | | 铝价短期维持偏强运行。 | 几内亚过渡政府撤销采矿证,相关企业已接到停产通知,铝土矿 | 氧化铝 | | | | | | 供应扰动提升,氧化 ...

| 材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年5月19日 | | | 問敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3210 | 3240 | -30 | 103 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3220 | 3230 | -10 | 113 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3360 | 3370 | -10 | 253 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3126 | 3075 | ਟੀ | 84 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3082 | 3118 | -36 | 128 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3107 | 3150 | -43 | 103 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3290 | 3300 | -10 | 52 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3210 | 3230 | -20 | -28 | | | 热卷现 ...

投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 研 究 所 晨 会 观 点 精 [Table_Report] 分析师 贾利军 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-80128600-8632 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-80128600-8631 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-80128600-8621 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-80128600-8630 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-80128600-8622 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 【宏观】海外方面，美国总统表示将在未来两到三周内对许多国家征收新的关税， 美国关税风险重燃；而 ...

| | | | | 现货 | | | 远期 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 地区 | 品种 | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 折盘面 | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 进口利润 | | 普氏62指数 | | 102.20 | -0.60 | 2.25 | | | | | | | | 纽曼粉 PB粉 | 758 765 | -8 -8 | 10 11 | 810.7 810.8 | 97.35 100.00 | -1.30 -1.35 | 3.10 3.00 | -27.20 -6.10 | | 澳洲 | 麦克粉 | 746 | -8 | 16 | 815.0 | 95.60 | -1.55 | 3.25 | -2.43 | | | 金布巴 | 726 | -10 | 11 | 817.2 | 91.85 | -0.90 | 3.25 | 0.34 | | 主流 | 混合粉 | 680 | -3 | 18 | 805.1 | 86.10 | -1.15 | 2.65 | 1.89 | | | 超特 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The outcome of the China - US trade negotiations far exceeded market expectations, boosting market confidence. The poor credit data in April confirmed the necessity of significant measures such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the policy - side positives have basically materialized. The real estate market in core cities has stabilized, while the low - tier city real estate market is still in the bottom - building process. The market is gradually shifting from strong reality to weak reality, with short - term support from the significant mutual tariff reduction between China and the US, but the weak expectations may not have changed substantially [2]. - Currently, the profitability rate of steel mills is acceptable, and steel billets have good profits with high export growth. The molten iron production is in a recovery trend, but if a production restriction policy is introduced in the future, it will further suppress iron ore demand. The global iron ore shipment is at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. The slowdown in port inventory decline and the high proportion of trade ore inventory put pressure on futures prices. Short - term price rebounds are mainly boosted by the optimistic progress of trade negotiations [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Threaded Rods and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Situation**: The market has rebounded from the low level. The production has increased, factory inventories have declined, social inventories have continued to fall, total inventories have decreased, and apparent demand has recovered. The rumor of production restrictions has limited impact on the market, but the production side believes that the industry needs to reduce production [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: In the short - term, there has been a significant rebound, and the downward trend has entered a low - level oscillation [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and see. After the negative factors are fully priced in and sufficient adjustments are made, consider going long at low prices. Be cautious about chasing up to prevent significant adjustments after the short - term positives are realized [2]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: The closing prices of threaded rod and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices have shown certain changes compared to the previous day and week. For example, the closing price of the threaded rod main contract is 3082 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan (-1.15%) from the previous day and up 60 yuan (1.99%) from the previous week [2]. - **Production and Inventory**: The output of threaded rods has increased by 1.34% week - on - week, while the output of hot - rolled coils has decreased by 2.62% week - on - week. The social and factory inventories of both have declined [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: Steel mills' profitability is acceptable, and steel billet exports are growing rapidly. The molten iron production is in a recovery trend, but future production restriction policies may suppress iron ore demand. The supply side is at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. The slowdown in port inventory decline and high trade ore inventory ratio put pressure on prices [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: The price has fallen to the long - term trend line and rebounded in the short - term, indicating that the medium - term downward trend may end and enter an oscillation or rebound phase [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Mainly judge based on technical trends. Hold short positions lightly and exit in time when the price is low in the future [4]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: The settlement prices of iron ore futures and spot prices have changed. For example, the settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 728 yuan/dry ton, up 32 yuan (4.60%) from the previous week [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: Australian iron ore shipments increased by 0.19% week - on - week, while Brazilian shipments decreased by 16.42% week - on - week. The port inventory decreased by 0.51% week - on - week [4]. 3.3 Industry News - Mysteel statistics show that the total inventory of imported iron ore in 45 ports decreased by 72.62 tons week - on - week, and the average daily port clearance volume increased by 8.68 tons. The total inventory in 47 ports decreased by 17.72 tons week - on - week, and the average daily port clearance volume increased by 11.08 tons [6]. - Mysteel research shows that the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.47 percentage points week - on - week, and the steel mill profitability rate increased by 0.44 percentage points week - on - week. The average daily molten iron output decreased by 0.87 tons week - on - week [6]. - According to Mysteel, mainstream steel mills in the Shandong market lowered the coke purchase price, with wet - quenched coke down 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke down 55 yuan/ton. Some steel mills in the Shandong market also lowered the coke purchase price by 55 yuan/ton [7]. - SteelSilver e - commerce data shows that the total urban inventory this week is 772.11 tons, a decrease of 41.98 tons from the previous week. Among them, the inventory of construction steel decreased by 26.88 tons, and the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 12.82 tons [7].

自2024年4月11日正式掘进进尺以来，上述隧道工程进展一直备受关注。据了解，该工程大中矿业采 用"龙源号"盾构机，面对裂隙带突水、层位突变等施工难题和复杂地质环境，精心准备、高效配合、突 破创新，实现高质高效精准掘进。 本报记者 马宇薇 2025年5月9日下午4时30分，大中矿业股份有限公司（以下简称"大中矿业"）全资子公司湖南大中赫锂 矿有限公司重点项目——临武县鸡脚山锂矿7.3公里运输隧道正式贯通，较原计划（8月31日）提前113 天。5月18日，大中矿业上述项目隧道贯通仪式隆重举行。此次贯通标志着大中矿业临武锂电新能源产 业链项目建设取得突破性进展，迈出坚实的一步。 大中矿业相关负责人对《证券日报》记者表示："上述项目首次将盾构机掘进隧道应用于矿山建设，填 补了国内锂矿开采领域盾构机应用的空白，大中矿业连续三个月月均掘进进尺超千米极大缩短了项目建 设时间，再现大中矿业高效建设速度典范。" 创出行业纪录 "此次隧道贯通，是大中矿业'转型不转行、创新在本行'战略的重要体现。公司铁矿业务经过二十余年 发展已成熟稳定，成为现金流的'压舱石'。为抵御单一业务风险，公司战略布局锂矿新能源领域，构 建'铁矿+锂矿' ...

华 金 期 货 黑 色 原 料 周 报 华金期货 研究院 2025/5/16 | | | 铁矿周度汇总 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 供应 | 海外发运整体维持在正常水平，本周澳巴发运保持稳定，非主流 发运大幅回升，国产铁精粉产量保持稳定，关注海外发运变化。 3 | | | 需求 | 钢厂利润尚可，预计铁水产量仍将高位波动，持续关注产量端变 | | | | 化。 | | 铁矿石 | 库存 | 疏港量维持在高位，烧结粉库存维持正常水平，需求端短期高位 波动，港口库存保持稳中略降节奏。 | | | 基差与价差 | 青岛港pb粉大幅回升，09合约表现较强，整体供应充裕，预计持 | | | | 续回升空间较小。 | | | 总结 | 铁水产量高位波动，尽管钢厂烧结粉库存较低，但刚需有走弱预 | | | | 期，原料端预计难有持续回升空间。 | | | 风险因素 | 成材需求再度大幅回落，铁水产量持续维持在低位。 | 数据来源&制图：我的钢铁、万得、华金期货 24-05 一、铁矿石海外供应 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.05.16」 铁矿石市场周报 发运和库存同降，铁矿石期价重心上移 研究员：蔡跃辉 添加客服 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 目录 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场 「周度要点小结1」 行情回顾 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 价格：截至5月16日收盘，铁矿主力合约期价为728（+32）元/吨，青岛港麦克粉816（+17）元/干吨。 2. 发运：本期澳巴发运总量环比减少117.9万吨。2025年05月05日-05月11日Mysteel澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量2422.5万吨，环比减 少117.9万吨。澳洲发运量1797.2万吨，环比增加28.0万吨，其中澳洲发往中国的量1593.8万吨，环比增加75.4万吨。巴西发 运量625.2万吨，环比减少146.0万吨。 3. 到港：本期47港到港量减少64.4万吨。2025年05月05日-05月11日中国47港到港总量2570.0万吨，环比减少64.4万吨；中国45 港到港总量23 ...

| 钢材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年5月16日 | | | 問敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 机信 | 前值 | 张跃 | 某差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3240 | 3250 | -10 | 90 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3230 | 3220 | 10 | 80 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3370 | 3360 | 10 | 220 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3075 | 3060 | 15 | 165 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3118 | 3127 | -d | 122 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3150 | 3155 | -5 | 90 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3300 | 3320 | -20 | 28 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3230 | 3230 | O | -42 | | | 热卷现货(华南) ...

黑色建材日报 | 2025-05-16 市场情绪缓和，钢价走势震荡 钢材：市场情绪缓和，钢价走势震荡 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日，螺纹钢期货主力合约收于3118元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3260元/吨。现货方面，昨日现货成交 整体一般偏弱，全国建材成交10万吨。 综合来看：本周受常规检修增加影响，热卷产量及库存环比下降，螺纹需求维持，库存持续去化，五大材周度环 比去库。中美关税政策缓和后，成材盘面价格贴水修复，宏观情绪扰动消退，市场重回基本面逻辑。关注后续供 给端政策落地情况。 策略 单边：震荡，关注情绪改善下的贴水修复 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 风险 宏观政策、关税政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：铁水见顶回落，港口库存下降 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石主力2509合约收于736.5元/吨，跌幅0.07%。现货方面，唐山港口进口铁矿主流品种价格 持稳运行，贸易商报价积极性一般，市场交投情绪偏弱，钢厂采购多以按需补库为主，目前市场成交情况较少。 昨日全国主港铁矿累计成交100.7万吨，环比下跌18.33%；远期现货：远期现货累计成交156.0万吨（10笔），环 ...