证券研究报告：金融工程报告 发布时间：2025-04-14 研究所 分析师:肖承志 SAC 登记编号:S1340524090001 Email:xiaochengzhi@cnpsec.com 研究助理:李子凯 SAC 登记编号:S1340124100014 Email:lizikai@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《陆股通 Q1 增持汽车电子机械，减持 电力通信化工——陆股通 2025Q1 持仓 点评》 - 2025.04.13 《上证受政策影响但未跌破重要点位， ETF 大幅流入科创芯片等 TMT 方向—— 行 业 轮 动 周 报 20250406 》 – 2025.04.06 《"924"以来融资资金防守后均见到行 情低点，仍关注科技配置机会——行业 轮动周报 20250330》 - 2025.03.31 《 Gemini 2.5 Pro 发 布 即 屠 榜 ， DeepSeek V3 完成模型更新——AI 动态 汇总 20250331》 – 2025.03.31 《低波风格持续，反转占优——中邮因 子周报 20250330》 – 2025.03.31 《为什么说本轮调整空间不会太大？ ——微盘股指 ...

Group 1 - The market experienced a broad decline, with consumption and stability sectors performing relatively better [3][10] - The major indices showed a general decline in valuation, with the stable sector performing the best and the ChiNext index performing the weakest [3][10] - The agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, retail, and national defense industries had the highest gains, while power equipment, telecommunications, and machinery equipment performed the weakest [13][35] Group 2 - The overall valuation of the broad market indices has declined, with the current valuations of major indices at around the 50% historical percentile [26][27] - The valuation of various sectors is differentiated, with non-bank financials, coal, oil and petrochemicals, non-ferrous metals, public utilities, transportation, and agriculture at near one-year lows [35][38] - The consumer sector is noted to have relatively cheap valuations based on PE and PB deviation metrics [38][43] Group 3 - The earnings expectations across industries have been generally revised downwards, with the steel sector seeing the largest upward adjustment and the real estate sector experiencing the largest downward adjustment [49]

Market Analysis - The report discusses the impact of Trump's 2.0 tariffs, highlighting that both China and the US have imposed tariffs of 125% on each other's goods, with Canada and the EU also retaliating. Recent actions indicate a potential easing of tensions, as the US announced exemptions for certain products [1][10][12] - Major asset classes experienced volatility, with the VIX index rising sharply, US Treasuries and the dollar facing sell-offs, and gold prices surpassing 3200. The report notes a significant drop in oil prices and a recovery in A-shares after a sharp decline [1][12][13] Domestic Economic Indicators - In March, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a narrowing year-on-year decline at -0.1%, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a wider decline at -2.5%. The PPI-CPI gap widened, indicating a growing disparity between production and consumer prices [2][30] - The report highlights a recovery in industrial production, with specific sectors like methanol and pure alkali showing improvement, while others like tire and polyester experienced declines [2][41] International Economic Indicators - US inflation rates continued to decline in March, with the CPI at 2.4% year-on-year and core CPI at 2.8%. The report notes a decrease in energy prices contributing to this trend [3][49][50] - The report tracks significant geopolitical events, including ongoing discussions regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict and tensions in the Middle East, which may impact global economic stability [3][45][46] Industry Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment themes: advancements in AI technology, recovery in consumer stocks, and the rise of undervalued dividend stocks. It emphasizes the importance of valuation in the consumer sector and the potential for recovery driven by policy support [4][43]

沪指4月11日上涨0.45%，申万所属行业中，今日上涨的有16个，涨幅居前的行业为电子、汽车，涨幅 分别为3.77%、2.20%。跌幅居前的行业为农林牧渔、煤炭，跌幅分别为3.18%、1.18%。农林牧渔行业 位居今日跌幅榜首位。 资金面上看，两市主力资金全天净流入11.09亿元，今日有11个行业主力资金净流入，电子行业主力资 金净流入规模居首，该行业今日上涨3.77%，全天净流入资金98.31亿元，其次是银行行业，日涨幅为 0.27%，净流入资金为10.43亿元。 主力资金净流出的行业有20个，农林牧渔行业主力资金净流出规模居首，全天净流出资金28.15亿元， 其次是商贸零售行业，净流出资金为25.34亿元，净流出资金较多的还有食品饮料、传媒、交通运输等 行业。 农林牧渔行业今日下跌3.18%，全天主力资金净流出28.15亿元，该行业所属的个股共101只，今日上涨 的有19只，涨停的有4只；下跌的有81只，跌停的有4只。以资金流向数据进行统计，该行业资金净流入 的个股有23只，净流入资金居首的是保龄宝，今日净流入资金7511.48万元，紧随其后的是百洋股份、 回盛生物，净流入资金分别为4189.03万元、2 ...

4月9日永顺泰（001338）发布2024年度分配预案，拟10派3元(含税)，预计派现金额合计为1.51亿元。派 现额占净利润比例为50.27%，以该股2024年度成交均价计算，股息率为2.82%。这是公司上市以来，累 计第3次派现。 公司上市以来历次分配方案一览 2024年度农林牧渔行业分红排名 | 代码 | 简称 | 每10股送转(股) | 每10股派现(元) | 派现金额(万元) | 派现占净利润比例(%) | 股息率(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002714 | 牧原股份 | 0.00 | 5.72 | 308288.04 | 17.24 | 1.35 | | 600598 | 北大荒 | 0.00 | 5.5 | 97772.39 | 89.93 | 4.03 | | 300999 | 金龙鱼 | 0.00 | 1.11 | 60179.67 | 24.05 | 0.35 | | 001338 | 永顺泰 | 0.00 | 3 | 15051.93 | 50.27 | 2.82 | | 300119 | 瑞普生物 | 0.00 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent market movements in China, highlighting the impact of U.S. tariffs and the response from Chinese authorities to stimulate the economy and stabilize the capital market. Group 1: Market Reactions - The U.S. announced a 104% tariff on certain imports from China, effective immediately, which initially caused A-shares to open lower, with the ChiNext index dropping by 3% [1] - Despite the negative opening, the market rebounded in the afternoon, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing up by 1.31% and the Shenzhen Component up by 1.22% [6] - A total of 129 stocks hit the daily limit up, indicating strong buying interest, particularly in the military industry [6] Group 2: Government Stimulus Measures - Reports emerged that Chinese leaders plan to hold a meeting to discuss measures to boost economic growth and stabilize the capital market, including potential export tax rebates [1] - The meeting is expected to involve senior officials from various government and regulatory bodies, indicating a coordinated effort to address economic challenges [1] Group 3: U.S. Treasury Market Dynamics - The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield surged over 20 basis points to 4.9553%, attributed to liquidity issues rather than fundamental factors [2] - Analysts noted that recent market volatility has led to a large-scale unwinding of basis trades, which could exacerbate market pressures [2][3] Group 4: Sector Performance - The military sector saw significant gains, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit up, driven by expectations of increased orders as part of China's military modernization efforts [6] - The consumer sector also rebounded, particularly in the duty-free segment, following the announcement of new tax refund measures for outbound travelers [7] Group 5: Economic and Political Commentary - Ray Dalio highlighted that the current market turmoil is part of a broader structural collapse in global monetary and political orders, emphasizing the unsustainable nature of current debt levels [8][9] - The article suggests that the interplay of these macroeconomic trends is crucial for understanding future market movements [10]

资金流向方面，融资余额环比增幅居前个股中，4月8日主力资金净流入的有7只，净流入资金居前的有 神农种业、聚光科技、华融化学等，净流入资金分别为8762.10万元、4207.43万元、1799.72万元，主力 资金净流出的有4只，净流出资金较多的有四方精创、益客食品、长华化学等，净流出资金分别为 1254.62万元、935.04万元、161.12万元。 创业板股最新融资余额为3351.81亿元，环比减少106.13亿元，11只股融资余额环比增长超10%，融资余 额环比降幅超10%的有56只。 融资余额降幅居前个股 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，4月8日创业板指上涨1.83%，创业板股两融余额合计3360.23亿元，较上一 交易日减少106.01亿元，已连续3个交易日减少。其中，融资余额合计3351.81亿元，环比上一日减少 106.13亿元；为连续3个交易日减少。融券余额8.41亿元，环比增加1254.72万元。 具体来看，融资余额增长的创业板股有130只，其中，11股融资余额增幅超过10%。增幅最大的是神农 种业，该股最新融资余额1.71亿元，环比上一交易日增幅为31.51%；股价表现上，该股当日上涨 19.95 ...

（文章来源：证券时报网） | 代码 | 简称 | 业绩预告 | 业绩预告 | 预计净利润增幅中值 | 最新收盘价 | 今年以来涨跌 | 行业 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 日期 | 类型 | （%） | （元） | （%） | | | 300199 | 翰宇 | 2025.03.27 | 预盈 | 568.02 | 13.00 | 0.85 | 医药生 | | | 药业 | | | | | | 物 | | 300476 | 胜宏 科技 | 2025.03.10 | 预增 | 319.83 | 61.22 | 45.45 | 电子 | | 301078 | 孩子 | 2025.04.07 | 预增 | 190.00 | 12.14 | 6.68 | 商贸零 | | | 王 | | | | | | 售 | | 300138 | 晨光 | 2025.04.08 | 预增 | 172.08 | 11.59 | 32.91 | 农林牧 | | | 生物 | | | | | | 渔 | | 300100 | 双林 股份 | 2025.0 ...

A股复盘 | 满仓做多中国 / 2025.04.08 特朗普真是网瘾老年啊！天天在社交平台上发动态，彷佛我朋友圈里的微商，制 造焦虑，贩卖焦虑。 昨晚又是搞事情，威胁中国，如果不在明天（2025年4月8日）之前撤销这次额 外加征的34%关税措施，美国将于4月9日起，对中国征收额外50%的关税，这 是在现有关税基础上进一步加码。 此外，特朗普还威胁说，所有与中国相关的会谈请求也将立刻终止！ 当然，我们也不能含糊！中国商务部一大早就回应，如果美方一意孤行，中方必 将奉陪到底！ 花旗在最新报告中点出了中美博弈的本质！特朗普这么做无非四个点： 1、惩罚。 当然，为了A股，我们也自上而下，盘前、盘中、盘后全力行动！ 昨天晚上三大国家队（汇金、诚通、国新）就表态买买买！ 今早汇金继续表示要买各种风格的ETF！ 中国央行说，为汇金提供资金支持！金管局说，险资冲啊！ 盘中好多国央企宣布回购增持，一些企业也开始发布一季度利好业绩！ 当然拔网线的动作还是要有的，因为有些资金确实说一套做一套！ 今天上证报报道称，进化论资产CEO、首席投资官王一平在社交平台发文称， 4 月8日加到了 满仓 。 除了进化论资产，北京一家百亿级私募也透 ...

4月8日，A股三大指数集体上涨。 同花顺iFinD显示，截至今日收盘，上证指数上涨1.58%，深证成指上涨0.64%，创业板指上涨 1.83%，北证50指数上涨4.82%。 全国社会保障基金理事会发布公告称，全国社会保障基金理事会始终坚持长期投资、价值投 资、责任投资理念，坚定看好中国资本市场发展前景，主动融入国家发展战略，近日已主动增 持国内股票，近期将继续增持。在积极开展股票投资的同时实现基金安全和保值增值。 此外，头部险企、地方国资平台等各方面，陆续发声表态，全力支持资本市场。众多龙头上市 公司集中发布回购增持公告。 申万宏源首席策略分析师傅静涛向记者表示，中央汇金积极发挥平准基金功能，A股市场反映 长期积极因素正当时。 中银证券全球首席经济学家管涛认为，此次多部委联合发布政策稳定资本市场，打出政策"组 合拳"，表达了坚定长期看好中国经济、力挺资本市场的决心。这不仅是对中央经济工作会 议"维护金融市场稳定"部署的落实，更标志着中国资本市场稳市机制建设迈向新阶段。 来源：金融时报 行业板块方面，31个申万一级行业中，23个行业指数上涨，8个行业指数下跌。其中，农林牧 渔、商贸零售、食品饮料、煤炭行业指数涨 ...