Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the transformation of Dekang Agriculture and Animal Husbandry (02419) from a production-oriented enterprise to a service-oriented enterprise, aligning with national agricultural policies and creating a sustainable technology dissemination system for farmers [1][2]. Group 1: Transformation Strategy - Dekang Agriculture and Animal Husbandry has rapidly transitioned from a traditional enterprise to a service-oriented one, driven by its core values and strategic vision to enhance farming efficiency and product quality [2]. - The company aims to serve 18 million professional farmers, helping them improve their farming efficiency by approximately 300 yuan per pig, thereby fostering mutual growth between the company and farmers [2][3]. Group 2: Competitive Advantage - The successful transformation of Dekang is attributed to its strong transformation capabilities and excellent corporate culture, which enable it to identify industry trends and innovate effectively [3]. - The company has pioneered models such as the "Comprehensive Breeding Service Platform" and "Dekang Family Farm Development Model," positioning itself ahead of industry trends [3]. Group 3: Financial Projections - According to Huayuan Securities, Dekang is expected to maintain a high level of free cash flow and profit ratio, with projected net profits of 3.6 billion yuan, 5.4 billion yuan, and 7.6 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][5]. - The company is seen as a successful reference model in the agricultural sector, demonstrating how to leverage technology and innovation for growth amidst capital excess [5].

Supply Analysis - The official breeding sow inventory in April was 40.38 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, with little monthly variation in the first half of the year [1] - In the first half of the year, piglet sales profits were good and feed costs were low, leading to a gradual increase in monthly piglet supply in the second quarter [1] - Breeding profits have declined to near breakeven, with the price difference for standard pigs expanding, prompting secondary fattening and group sales, resulting in a steady release of production capacity [1] Demand Analysis - Slaughter volumes in March and April significantly increased compared to the beginning of the year and the same period last year, with a year-on-year increase of about 8% in officially designated slaughter volumes, indicating a recovery in demand [1] - The national reserve's rotation and storage in the first half of the year provided support for slaughter enterprises [1] - High temperatures in July and August may suppress demand, while the peak demand season in the fourth quarter and domestic macroeconomic recovery may support pig prices [1] Profit Analysis - Breeding profits reached a high point in the second quarter before declining, but profits remain positive [1] - Profit changes are influenced by rising corn prices and a downward shift in spot prices, with limited downward space for breeding profits despite potential corn price increases [1] Basis Analysis - The market supply is loose, with futures fluctuating around cost lines, and near-month contracts significantly discounting spot prices [1] - Supply pressure has shifted, causing spot prices to decline less than expected, with contracts for March and May driving futures prices up [1] - Long-term contract basis fluctuates between 800 and 1300, with strong market expectations and slow declines in spot prices [1] Investment Recommendations - Overall inventory increases, weight reduction expectations, and fluctuations in secondary fattening are expected to extend the downward cycle of live pigs [1] - Inventory increases in July and August may slow down, while the growth rate of inventory in September may accelerate, maintaining a loose supply pattern [1] - It is recommended to short the September and November contracts based on basis adjustments [1]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 生猪期货早报 2025-06-30 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸生猪观点和策略 生猪： 1. 基本面：供应方面，五一假期后国内出栏积极性减弱生猪价格短期维持弱势，预计节后本周供给或 猪、肉双减。需求方面，国内宏观环境预期偏悲观，五一假期结束居民整体消费意愿热情回落，压 制短期鲜猪肉消费，前期中国对美国和加拿大猪肉进口加征关税，提振市场信心。综合来看，预计 本周市场或供需双减、猪价短期回归震荡格局。关注月底集团场出栏节奏变化、二次育肥市场动态 变化情况。中性。 2. 基差：现货全国均价14560元/吨，2509合约基差555元/吨，现货升水期货。偏多。 3. 库存：截至3月 ...

原标题：浙江加快建设全国首个"智慧农业引领区"——田野用上大模型 种地就是不一样 2024年，农业农村部将全国首个"智慧农业引领区"的建设重任交给浙江。近日，记者从全省智慧农 业引领区建设现场推进会上了解到，浙江正加快制定《智慧农业引领区建设实施方案（2025—2030 年）》，将依托一体化智能化公共数据平台，围绕种植业、畜牧业、渔业等核心产业，加速推进以大模 型为代表的AI（人工智能）技术在农业领域的深度应用见效。 AI的核心能力在于感知、决策与执行。当大模型遇上农业，正赋予农业前所未有的自主分析与预 测能力，驱动着无人化生产和全链条智能化变革，成为智慧农业跃升的关键引擎。 在浙江的田间地头、牧场车间、广袤市场，一场由大模型驱动的农业革命正悄然重塑千年农耕的面 貌。 利用数字孪生，突破凭经验和感觉 从毛竹大棚、山地脚手架单体棚、山地平顶连栋棚、山地拱形连栋棚，到如今的第五代山地智能化 大棚，兰溪杨梅产业协会会长陶奉源算是把设施杨梅"越玩越明白"了。他又有了一个新的目标——打造 杨梅的"数字孪生"。 动植物"数字孪生"，就是利用数字技术，创建动植物的虚拟模型，使其在虚拟空间中能够反映现实 中动植物的动态变化和 ...

Core Insights - The transformation of a former mining site into a modern beef cattle breeding demonstration park in Inner Mongolia showcases a successful model of ecological restoration and efficient land use [1][2][3] Group 1: Project Overview - The project initiated by the local government focuses on ecological priority and green development, converting abandoned sand pits into suitable land for livestock farming [1] - The beef cattle breeding demonstration park currently houses 11,000 cattle, with a potential capacity of 20,000 upon full operation, marking it as the first large-scale beef cattle farm built on a high-standard mining reclamation project [2] Group 2: Economic and Social Impact - The project has improved the local environment and created job opportunities for nearby residents, enhancing their income potential [2] - The innovative model of deep integration between livestock farming and agricultural enterprises has led to stable income for village collectives and employment for villagers, fostering a community of shared interests [3] Group 3: Future Plans and Industry Development - The park plans to expand its breeding stock by introducing 7,000 purebred Angus breeding cows in 2024, with an additional 13,000 Angus cattle to establish the largest purebred Angus breeding base in the region [2] - The initiative aims to elevate the beef industry by promoting high-quality breeding and standardized farming practices, thereby increasing product value and market competitiveness [2][3]

重视行业格局变化，逐浪涨价周期 - 2025 年农业中期策 略 20250627 摘要 国内牛存栏量自 2023 年中期持续下降，预计今年降幅超 10%；全球牛 存栏自 2022 年起下降，预计今年继续减少。中国政策减少牛肉进口， 多重因素共同推动国内肉牛价格上涨，或将维持两年以上的上行周期。 原奶价格预计 2026 年企稳向上，与肉牛价格存在联动性。2024 年初 奶牛存栏量持续下降，同比去化超 5%，九成牧场亏损。预计 2025 年 下半年奶价或供需平衡并有上行空间，进口量预计下降，利好国内供需 平衡。 生猪养殖板块受供给侧改革推动，中长期盈利提升逻辑明确。政策指引 生猪库存、体重、二次育肥及能繁母猪存栏量。若生猪存量有效控制在 3,950 万头或更低水平，行业扣减利润可期，领先企业养殖利润接近 400 元每头。 生猪养殖行业供给端和盈利端情况：预计 2025 年生猪供给量比 2024 年有所增加，但生产效率提升和疫病影响使得实际供给量仍存在不确定 性。今年全年的均价将在每公斤 4.5 元上下浮动，而利润可能压缩至头 均几十到头均 100 元左右。 Q&A 今年（2025 年）下半年农业板块的涨价品种有哪 ...

Summary of the Conference Call for Yuran Dairy Industry Industry Overview - The dairy industry is expected to see a moderate recovery in milk prices in 2025, influenced by summer heat stress, mid-to-high-end dairy product consumption, and new national standards [2][3][4] - The original milk price is projected to stabilize in Q3 2025 and rise in Q4 2025, supported by cash flow pressures faced by social pastures during the silage procurement season [2][10] Key Points Milk Price Expectations - Milk prices are anticipated to rise to around 3.8 RMB/kg, with fluctuations expected to be moderate rather than drastic [4][22] - The average milk price for 2024 was 4.12 RMB/kg, with a sales cost of 2.77 RMB/kg, where feed costs accounted for approximately 70%-75% of total costs [2][21] Company Strategy and Performance - Yuran Dairy aims for a low single-digit growth in the number of dairy cows in 2025, with production and sales expected to exceed 4 million tons [2][5] - The company’s fresh milk pricing is above the market average, with a 2024 average of 4.12 RMB/kg compared to the national average of 3.32 RMB/kg [2][6] - The company plans to maintain a stable gross margin in 2025, benefiting from a recovery in beef prices which will reduce losses from culling [5][21] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The culling of dairy cows is accelerating due to rising beef prices, which are nearing 20 RMB/kg, alleviating cash flow pressures on pastures [2][9] - The number of dairy cows in China has been decreasing, with a monthly reduction of approximately 35,000 to 40,000 heads from January to April 2025, slowing to 10,000 heads in May [3][4] Cost and Profit Analysis - A change of 0.1 RMB/kg in milk price or cost is expected to impact annual net profit by approximately 400 million RMB [3][21] - The company’s average sales ratio remains stable at 97%-98%, with no sales pressure due to unlimited purchases from downstream clients [12] Market Trends and Consumer Behavior - There is a structural change in demand, with a shift from room temperature milk to low-temperature milk and an increase in the high-end segment of infant formula and elderly milk powder [10][11] - The company is exploring international markets, including Hong Kong and Southeast Asia, to expand its customer base [11] Future Outlook - The dairy industry is expected to stabilize and see a gradual recovery in milk prices, indicating that the most challenging period may be nearing its end [20][22] - The company is focusing on enhancing operational efficiency and maintaining a balanced supply-demand relationship to navigate future market fluctuations [22][29] Additional Insights - The company has expanded its product line to include goat milk, which is gaining popularity due to its digestibility [25] - The breeding business is progressing well, with a focus on improving the quality of dairy cows through advanced breeding techniques [26] This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections discussed during the conference call, highlighting the strategic direction and market dynamics of Yuran Dairy Industry.

Core Insights - Inner Mongolia is actively promoting the transformation and development of agriculture and animal husbandry, focusing on ecological agriculture and deep processing of agricultural products to enhance the quality and efficiency of the industry [2][6]. Group 1: Agricultural Production Optimization - The introduction of intercropping, such as planting sunflowers between rows of wheat, has led to a 30% increase in net profit per mu [2]. - In 2024, grain production in Inner Mongolia is expected to reach 82.01 billion jin, with an average yield increase of 24.2 jin per mu [2]. Group 2: Structural Improvement - The region is optimizing its production structure by developing 18 advantageous industrial belts for crops and livestock, including corn, wheat, and beef [4]. - The focus is on selecting high-quality varieties and efficient planting models to ensure both yield and income for farmers [4]. Group 3: Technological Empowerment - The contribution rate of agricultural technology progress in Inner Mongolia has reached 62.4%, with over 90% mechanization in crop farming [5]. - Smart farming technologies are being adopted, allowing for automated feeding and management of livestock, significantly improving efficiency [5]. Group 4: Deep Processing and Value Chain Extension - The development of deep processing in agriculture aims to extend the industrial chain, with a target of achieving a processing conversion rate of over 78% for major agricultural products in 2023 [6]. - The agricultural industry in Inner Mongolia is projected to exceed 700 billion yuan in key industry chain output value by 2024 [6].

投资建议 行情回顾： 本周（2025.06.23-2025.06.27）农林牧渔（申万）指数收于 2661.46 点(周环比+0.80%)， 沪深 300 指数收于 3921.76 点（周环比+1.95%），深证综指收于 2052.56 点（周环比+4.24%），上证综指收于 3424.23 点（周环比+1.91%），科 创板收于 988.21 点（周环比+3.17%)，农林牧渔行业指数跑输上证综指。 牧业： 截至 6 月 28 日，我国主产省集贸市场活牛价格 26.52 元/公斤，环比-0.48%，目前为动物蛋白消费淡季，牛肉价格保 持震荡状态；奶牛方面截至 6 月 20 日主产区合同内外平均收购价为 3.04 元/公斤，环比-0.3%，同比-7.88%，奶价下 跌幅度持续放缓，散奶价在 2.3 元出场附近止稳。我们预计随着供给端产能去化的逐步传导，原奶价格在 25H2 有望 企稳回升；肉牛方面近期犊牛与活牛价格已经出现上涨，预计新一轮肉牛周期有望开启，板块景气度有望拐点向上。 种植链： 近期小麦启动最低收购价预案，对小麦价格存在较强底部支撑，同时玉米端下游库存持续消化，玉米价格出现小幅反 弹。在外部环境不 ...

农林牧渔 2025 年 06 月 29 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 农林牧渔 沪深300 相关研究报告 《消费逐步进入淡季，短期鸡价或有 压力—行业点评报告》-2025.6.23 《供给收缩已至支撑猪价上行，618 宠物食品龙头表现亮眼—行业周报》 -2025.6.22 《6 月 USDA 农产品报告上调全球玉 米、水稻、小麦产量，维持全球大豆 产 量 预 期 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》- 2025.6.17 10 2025Q2 猪企利润或仍同比高增，供给收缩宏观催化 共振积极配置 ——行业周报 | 陈雪丽（分析师） | 王高展（联系人） | 朱本伦（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | chenxueli@kysec.cn | wanggaozhan@kysec.cn | zhubenlun@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790520030001 | 证书编号：S0790123060055 | 证书编号：S0790124060020 | 周观察：20 ...