农产品日报 | 2025-06-06 需求持续疲软，猪价震荡运行 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2509合约13485元/吨，较前交易日变动-5.00元/吨，幅度-0.04%。现货方面，河南地区外 三元生猪价格14.03元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.18元/公斤，现货基差 LH09+545，较前交易日变动-175；江苏地区 外三元生猪价格 14.42元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.08元/公斤，现货基差LH09+935，较前交易日变动-75；四川地 区外三元生猪价格14.00元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.08元/公斤，现货基差LH09+515，较前交易日变动-75。 据农业农村部监测，6月5日"农产品批发价格200指数"为113.50，比昨天上升0.06个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指数 为113.63，比昨天上升0.07个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为20.70元/公斤，比昨天下降0.2%；牛肉64.44 元/公斤，比昨天上升1.5%；羊肉59.76元/公斤，比昨天上升1.2%；鸡蛋7.76元/公斤，比昨天上升0.8%；白条鸡17.54 元/公斤，比昨天上升1.1%。 市场分析 谨 ...

生猪：如何看待政策变化及后续猪价 20250605 摘要 为应对肉类供应过剩，政府实施生猪生产调控，重点监控母猪存栏、出 栏量、肥猪体重等六项指标，并以月报形式跟踪，违规企业将面临惩罚， 旨在稳定生猪市场。 政策目标是将出栏体重控制在 125 公斤左右，预计将导致肉类供应量同 比减少 10%-14%，加上降体重因素，总体减少 8%-9%，有望推动下 半年猪肉均价接近 16 元/公斤。 成本控制优异的大型企业（成本低于 14 元/公斤）有望受益于市场均价 上涨，预计每头生猪利润可超过 200 元，即使考虑完全成本，部分企业 仍可实现 100 多元利润。 当前政策执行严格，若母猪数量稳定且产能未明显下降，监管或适度放 松；若产能接近 3,900 万头，则六项指标控制将持续。纳入国家监测的 大型企业范围可能扩大至年出栏 200 万头以上。 上半年猪价平稳，得益于 2-5 月供应量较大，其中 1-2 月供应提前释放， 导致 12 月价格超跌；3-4 月供应后移，价格坚挺；5 月供应压力大，价 格下跌。中小企业对未来预期较差，淘汰母猪意愿增加。 Q&A 当前政策对畜牧业的影响有哪些具体方面？ 近期出台的政策主要包括以下 ...

Core Viewpoint - The State Council has announced the fourth national agricultural census to be conducted in 2026, aiming to assess the modernization of agriculture and rural areas in China [1][2]. Group 1: Census Overview - The census will take place on December 31, 2026, with data collected for the entire year [1]. - It is a significant national survey aimed at understanding the agricultural landscape and rural conditions in the context of China's modernization efforts [1][2]. - The census will include various subjects such as rural households, agricultural production units, and local government bodies [1]. Group 2: Key Areas of Investigation - The census will investigate five main areas: 1. Agricultural production conditions, including workforce, land use, and social services [2]. 2. Food production status, covering grains, economic crops, and livestock products [2]. 3. New agricultural productivity, focusing on modern agricultural entities and technologies [2]. 4. Rural development basics, including industry growth and governance [2]. 5. Rural residents' living conditions, assessing family situations and quality of life [2]. Group 3: Methodology and Technology - The census will utilize a combination of comprehensive surveys and sampling methods to enhance efficiency and reduce the burden on local authorities [2]. - Modern technologies such as satellite remote sensing, drones, and artificial intelligence will be employed to improve data collection and analysis [2]. - The initiative aims to create a unified agricultural census data platform to facilitate the sharing and application of results [2].

夏日，行走在地处河套平原的内蒙古自治区巴彦淖尔市，田间地头一派忙碌景象。高标准农田土地平 整，农民们忙着播种玉米、葵花等农作物。在现代化养殖场内，牛羊成群、膘肥体壮。在遍及整个河套 平原的灌渠内，用于灌溉的黄河水奔腾不息。 在乌拉特后旗国际农业博览园周边，农田得到集约化利用，现代设施农业发展迅猛，上千栋果蔬大棚成 为当地农民致富的"好帮手"。"博览园内的暖棚中，火龙果植株在人工模拟的热带环境中旺盛生长。'南 果北种'的实现得益于我们采用了先进的栽培技术。"乌拉特后旗国际农业博览园副总经理张中告诉记 者，未来博览园将致力于发展现代农业，发挥示范引领作用。 "我今年种植了2800多亩玉米，全部采用先进的精量播种技术，通过北斗辅助驾驶系统的精准操控，实 现从点穴、播种、施肥到覆土覆膜等工序一气呵成，有效提升了播种效率与质量，也让增产增收有了更 好保障。"乌拉特前旗大佘太镇仁贵组种植大户杨润说。 巴彦淖尔市地处北纬40度农作物种植黄金带，拥有1300多万亩耕地，被誉为"塞外粮仓""草原上的菜篮 子"。近年来，巴彦淖尔市牢记嘱托，全面提升现代高效农牧业发展水平，用心守护河套灌区千年基 业，让"中国饭碗"里盛放更多河套粮 ...

Core Insights - The latest USDA drought report indicates that significant drought conditions are affecting major agricultural regions in the U.S., with moderate to severe drought levels reported as of June 3, 2025 [1] Grain Sector - Durum Wheat: 41% of the production area is affected by drought, a decrease of 38 percentage points from the previous week but an increase of 36 percentage points from the same time last year [3] - Spring Wheat: 19% of the production area is affected by drought, down 10 percentage points from the previous week and up 16 percentage points from last year [4] - Winter Wheat: 12% of the production area is affected by drought, down 4 percentage points from the previous week and down 4 percentage points from last year [5] - Corn: 21% of the production area is affected by drought, a decrease of 2 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 19 percentage points from last year [6] - Soybeans: 16% of the production area is affected by drought, down 1 percentage point from the previous week and up 15 percentage points from last year [7] - Barley: 24% of the production area is affected by drought, down 4 percentage points from the previous week and up 17 percentage points from last year [8] - Sorghum: 15% of the production area is affected by drought, down 7 percentage points from the previous week and down 30 percentage points from last year [9] - Rice: 2% of the production area is affected by drought, down 1 percentage point from the previous week and down 5 percentage points from last year [10] Economic Crops - Cotton: 6% of the production area is affected by drought, down 1 percentage point from the previous week and unchanged from last year [11] - Peanuts: 2% of the production area is affected by drought, unchanged from the previous week and last year [11] - Sunflowers: 8% of the production area is affected by drought, down 12 percentage points from the previous week and up 5 percentage points from last year [11] - Sugarbeets: 21% of the production area is affected by drought, unchanged from the previous week and up 21 percentage points from last year [11] - Sugarcane: 49% of the production area is affected by drought, unchanged from the previous week and down 1 percentage point from last year [11] Livestock and Feed - Hay: 19% of the production area is affected by drought, down 1 percentage point from the previous week and up 12 percentage points from last year [12] - Alfalfa Hay: 27% of the production area is affected by drought, down 3 percentage points from the previous week and up 17 percentage points from last year [12] - Cattle: 21% of the herd is located in drought-affected areas, down 2 percentage points from the previous week and up 11 percentage points from last year [12] - Sheep: 25% of the herd is located in drought-affected areas, down 1 percentage point from the previous week and up 17 percentage points from last year [12] - Milk Cows: 15% of the herd is located in drought-affected areas, down 3 percentage points from the previous week and up 10 percentage points from last year [12] Analysis and Outlook - The drought conditions are expected to significantly impact major crops like corn and soybeans, which are crucial for both domestic and global markets [15] - While cotton's economic impact is relatively minor, the drought could still affect related industries [15] - The drought's effects on livestock, particularly cattle and sheep, may lead to increased production costs in the livestock sector [15] - Other crops such as barley, sorghum, sugarbeets, and sugarcane are also experiencing drought impacts, which could disrupt global supply chains [16]

Core Insights - The fourth national agricultural census will be conducted in 2026, marking a significant step in understanding the agricultural landscape in China and supporting the construction of a strong agricultural nation [1][2] Group 1: Importance of the Census - The census aims to comprehensively assess the current state of agriculture, rural development, and farmers' living conditions, which is crucial for formulating effective agricultural policies and promoting rural revitalization [2] - It reflects the historical achievements and transformations in agricultural development since the last census in 2016 [2] Group 2: Census Subjects and Scope - The census will target various subjects, including rural households, urban agricultural operators, agricultural production units, village committees, and township governments [3] - The industry scope includes crop cultivation, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, and related services [4] Group 3: Main Content of the Census - The census will investigate five key areas: agricultural production conditions, food production status, new agricultural productivity, rural development basics, and rural residents' living conditions [5] Group 4: Innovations and Changes - The census will incorporate updated content reflecting new agricultural practices and rural modernization, utilizing a combination of comprehensive and sampling surveys to enhance efficiency [6] - Modern technologies such as satellite remote sensing, drones, and artificial intelligence will be employed to improve data collection and analysis [6] Group 5: Timeline and Phases - The census will be conducted in four phases: preparation (2025-2026), on-site registration (January-May 2027), data processing and publication (June-December 2027), and data application (2028-2029) [8] Group 6: Implementation and Support - A leadership group has been established to oversee the census, ensuring collaboration among various government departments and local authorities [9] - Participation from census subjects is essential, requiring accurate and timely reporting of data [10]

牧原股份（002714）公告，2025年5月份，公司销售商品猪640.6万头，同比变动30.42%；商品猪销售均 价14.52元/公斤，同比变动-6.44%；商品猪销售收入122.58亿元，同比变动26.93%。公司销售仔猪133.9 万头，销售种猪2.9万头。上述销售数据未经审计，与定期报告披露的数据之间可能存在差异。 ...

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.23% to 3384.10 points, marking a three-day increase [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.58% to 10203.50 points, also achieving three consecutive days of gains [1] - The ChiNext Index saw a rise of 1.17% to 2048.62 points, continuing its three-day upward trend [1] - Total trading volume in the two markets reached 1.29 trillion yuan, exceeding 1 trillion yuan for six consecutive days [1] Sector Performance - The components sector performed notably well, surging by 5.15% [1] - Consumer electronics and communication equipment sectors followed, with increases of 3.22% and 3.14% respectively [1] - The AI index on the ChiNext rose by 3.33%, with several AI ETFs also showing significant gains [1][4] ETF Performance - The Information Technology ETF (512330.SH) increased by 3.98%, with a total share size of 555 million [3] - The AI ETF from Huaxia (159381.SZ) rose by 3.86%, with a share size of 272 million [4] - The 5G ETF (159994.SZ) increased by 3.40%, with a total share size of 1.733 billion [5] - The overall market saw 785 non-currency ETFs rise, accounting for 68% of the total [1] Valuation Metrics - The latest PE-TTM for the CSI 500 Information Technology Index is 98.22, lower than the 98.48% level maintained over the past three years [4] - The PE-TTM for the ChiNext AI Index stands at 74.41, below the 63.38% level of the past three years [5] - The PE-TTM for the CSI 5G Communication Index is 26.46, also lower than the 29.28% level over the last three years [5] Market Sentiment - The S&P 500 Consumer Select Index showed a premium of 24.20%, indicating strong market sentiment [8] - The S&P 500 Index also experienced a premium of 15.80%, reflecting positive investor sentiment [8]

农产品日报 | 2025-06-05 需求难有提振，猪价震荡运行 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2509合约13490元/吨，较前交易日变动-20.00元/吨，幅度-0.15%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格14.21元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.19元/公斤，现货基差 LH09+720，较前交易日变动-170；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 14.50元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.10元/公斤，现货基差LH09+1010，较前交易日变动-80；四川 地区外三元生猪价格14.08元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.07元/公斤，现货基差LH09+590，较前交易日变动-50。 据农业农村部监测，6月4日"农产品批发价格200指数"为113.44，比昨天下降0.29个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指数 为113.56，比昨天下降0.33个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为20.75元/公斤，比昨天上升0.8%；牛肉63.50 元/公斤，比昨天下降0.6%；羊肉59.08元/公斤，比昨天下降1.2%；鸡蛋7.70元/公斤，比昨天上升1.2%；白条鸡17.35 元/公斤，比昨天上升0.8%。 市场分析 ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 06 月 05 日 | 市场数据 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 收盘 | 涨跌% | | 上证指数 | 3376.20 | 0.42 | | 深证成指 | 10144.58 | 0.87 | | 创业板指 | 2024.93 | 1.11 | | 科创 50 | 986.11 | 0.45 | | 北证 50 | 1438.73 | 1.10 | | 沪深 300 | 3868.74 | 0.43 | A 股市场概览 | 类别 | 总市值 | 流通市 | 市盈率 | 市净率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | (亿元) | 值(亿元) | PE | PB | | 上证指数 | 650328 | 507744 | 11.95 | 1.24 | | 深证成指 | 215963 | 182906 | 19.92 | 2.10 | | 创业板指 | 57287 | 45189 | 26.71 | 3.71 | | 科创 50 | 33966 | 22168 | 53.36 | 4.09 | | 北证 50 | ...