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农产品研究跟踪系列报告(167):牛肉价格淡季不淡,看好牧业大周期景气向上
Guoxin Securities· 2025-07-13 12:53
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector [1][4]. Core Viewpoints - The report is optimistic about the reversal of the beef cycle, recommending investments in livestock, pet industries, and companies with low valuations in the pig and poultry sectors [3][4]. - The beef price remains strong during the off-season, indicating a potential upward trend in the beef cycle for 2025 [1][3]. - The supply of pigs is expected to maintain low volatility, with a forecast for continued price stability in 2025 [1][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Overview and Data Summary - The report highlights that beef prices are resilient during the off-season, while pig prices show strong support [1]. - As of July 11, 2025, the price of live pigs is 14.70 CNY/kg, down 3.86% week-on-week, while the price of 7kg piglets is approximately 445 CNY/head, up 2.75% week-on-week [1]. 2. Fundamental Tracking 2.1 Swine - The price of live pigs is expected to maintain low volatility, with a forecast for continued market stability in 2025 [1][14]. 2.2 Poultry - The report notes a reduction in parent stock and structural changes in the poultry market, with consumption gradually shifting upwards [1][15]. 2.3 Beef - The domestic beef market price is 59.23 CNY/kg as of July 11, 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 27.38% [1][16]. 3. Key Company Profit Forecasts and Investment Ratings - Companies such as Guangming Meat Industry, Muyuan Foods, and Haida Group are rated as "Outperform" with respective earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025 of 0.53, 3.57, and 2.64 CNY [4].
90后姑娘返乡种姜登上央视《共富经》:一部手机连姜农 小生姜种出共富大天地
Yang Guang Wang· 2025-07-13 12:24
从都市高楼到田间地头,快手直播打开销路初体验 大学毕业后,孟晓帆顺理成章地留在了北京工作。从事金融投资方面工作的她,每天穿梭在高楼大厦里,与各种数据报表打交道。高强度的工作、快节 奏的生活让她几乎没什么时间陪伴家人。2019年,孟晓帆选择按下暂停键,开始重新思考人生的方向。 从田间地头到出口海外,"小生姜"也能种出致富"大产业"。6月30日,在央视农业农村频道《共富经》栏目播出的最新一期节目《返乡种姜记》中,镜 头对准了来自山东寿光的一位90后姑娘孟晓帆,她是返乡创业的新农人,一头扎进土地里,从种姜小白成为年入百万的种姜大户。她把短视频直播平台当作 新农具,在快手上分享种姜心得,系统性打造生姜产业链,辐射并带动更多姜农叩开致富门。 来自"中国蔬菜之乡"山东寿光的她,将创业的方向瞄准了蔬菜种植。作为全国重要的蔬菜生产基地和集散中心,平均每分钟有1.7万多公斤蔬菜从寿光 销往全国200多个城市,影响着几亿人的餐桌。"爸妈都是从农村出来的,没想到有一天我会回去种地,刚开始肯定会劝我,但看我决心这么大,还是放手让 我试一试。" 2021年,受市场波动生姜价格下跌,为了拓宽生姜的销售渠道,孟晓帆经过多方考察,发现了生姜 ...
韩国高温致农产品价格暴涨 政府投放储备白菜
news flash· 2025-07-13 12:14
Group 1 - South Korea is experiencing a heatwave, leading to a significant increase in the prices of agricultural products such as cabbage, watermelon, and radishes [1] - The average price of a watermelon is approaching 30,000 KRW (approximately 156 RMB) [1] - The South Korean government has implemented a series of measures to stabilize prices and has released reserve cabbage into the market [1]
多点发力降低高温对农业生产影响 “新”潮澎湃为稳产优产保驾护航
Yang Shi Wang· 2025-07-13 10:36
Group 1 - The ongoing high-temperature weather is impacting agriculture and aquaculture, prompting local agricultural, water, and power departments in Shandong and Henan to implement scientific irrigation and protective measures to mitigate the effects on agricultural production [1] - In Shandong Qingzhou, smart temperature control systems in flower greenhouses maintain an optimal temperature of around 26°C, ensuring stable production despite external heat [2] - In Shandong Leiling, two dedicated power supply lines were constructed to ensure oxygen supply for mudfish farming during critical growth periods, preventing potential losses due to power outages [4] Group 2 - In Henan Huaibin, local water resources are being effectively managed through the coordination of 18 small and medium-sized reservoirs to ensure sufficient water supply for rice fields during the ongoing drought conditions [6][7] - A three-tiered coordination mechanism has been established in the region to ensure continuous water supply for irrigation, with a focus on optimal watering times to minimize evaporation losses [9]
光大证券农林牧渔行业周报:6月猪企销售月报解读-20250713
EBSCN· 2025-07-13 09:15
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector [4] Core Viewpoints - Recent policy guidance has led to a rapid decline in post-slaughter weight, allowing for a rebalancing of volume and price, with positive expectations for pig prices [3] - The long-term perspective indicates that the bottom of the production capacity cycle is becoming clearer, suggesting a potential long-term profit upturn for the sector [3] - The report highlights investment opportunities in various segments, including pig farming, feed, and planting chains, as well as the pet food sector [3] Summary by Sections Pig Farming Sector - In June, 13 listed pig companies collectively slaughtered 16.2681 million pigs, a month-on-month increase of 2.65% and a year-on-year increase of 47.55% [2][13] - The average selling price of pigs decreased by approximately 3% month-on-month and about 20% year-on-year, with prices ranging from 13.23 to 15.57 yuan/kg [14][15] - The average weight of slaughtered pigs in June was 125.06 kg, down 0.77 kg from May, indicating a trend towards reducing weight [17] Market Dynamics - The national average price for live pigs was 14.81 yuan/kg as of July 11, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 3.52% [28] - The demand for pork is weakening due to high temperatures affecting consumption and rising storage costs, leading to a gradual loosening of supply-demand dynamics [28] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff, and Juxing Agriculture, as well as companies in the feed and animal health sectors like Haida Group and Ruipu Biological [3] - In the planting chain, opportunities are highlighted for companies like Suqian Agricultural Development and Beidahuang [3] Other Segments - The pet food industry is experiencing growth, with increasing recognition of domestic brands and continuous growth of leading companies [3]
活力中国调研行|勾勒乡村振兴多彩画卷
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-07-13 06:48
Core Insights - Jiangxi province has maintained a stable grain production of over 43 billion jin for 12 consecutive years, showcasing its agricultural strength and commitment to national food security [1] - The development of the high-quality chili pepper industry in Gao'an is a model of agricultural modernization, emphasizing standardization and branding to enhance market competitiveness [2] - The integration of various agricultural sectors in Jiangxi is driving economic growth, with a focus on value-added processing and product diversification [3] Group 1: Agricultural Development - Jiangxi has established itself as a national base for pollution-free vegetable production, leveraging its natural resources for agricultural prosperity [1] - The Gao'an chili pepper industry has seen a 37.5% increase in yield per mu due to standardized practices, benefiting nearly 9,687 local farmers [2] - The province has created 8 national-level characteristic industrial clusters and 12 modern agricultural industrial parks, ranking among the top in the country [2] Group 2: Product Innovation - The Taihe black chicken industry has evolved from a single product offering to over 140 varieties, including health and medicinal products, enhancing its market appeal [3] - New technologies, such as the extraction of small molecule peptides from black chicken, have increased product value by 300% [3] - The establishment of joint research centers with universities and research institutions is fostering innovation in the agricultural sector [3] Group 3: Economic Impact - In 2024, Jiangxi's agricultural entities are projected to achieve sales revenue of 367.22 billion yuan, significantly impacting local economies [4] - The integration of enterprises, farmers, and cooperatives has created over 500 jobs, with an average monthly income of 3,000 yuan for impoverished households [4] - The local collective economy has benefited from land transfer management fees, generating an annual income of over 70,000 yuan for village collectives [4]
一座温带城市 想成为中国“热植之都”
经济观察报· 2025-07-13 06:19
"花二代"郝健是山东省青州市第一个种植热带植物(下称"热植")的人。2020年,他种出的一棚 茁壮的白锦龟背竹(下称"白龟")给市场带来了不小的震撼。热植是近年来颇受年轻人喜爱的绿植 种类,也被称为年轻人的"新潮玩",流行的品种包括龟背竹、花烛、蔓绿绒等。 此后五年时间,这座位于北纬36度的温带城市开始大规模种植热植,并逐渐成为中国热植种植最 集中的区域之一。大量电商平台上的热植商家来自青州地区,甚至青州种植的一些热植产品还会返 销至泰国等热带国家。 目前,青州热植花卉的总产值已经突破10亿元。 产业能力赋予了 青州 不断迭代的能力,让青州能够不断产出 满足不同代际爱好的花卉产品:从仙客来、兰花到多肉植物, 再到热植。这个过程中,青州在产业中扮演的角色也在不断迭 代。 作者:宋笛 王惠 封图:受访者供图 青州是中国"花木之乡"。这里曾经出产中国80%的多肉植物,也是兰花等多种花卉的主要产区。在 四十多年的发展过程中,青州在基础设施、产业配套等方面形成了优势。更重要的是,这里积累了 大量拥有丰富经验和技术能力的农户和企业,"农户+企业"的模式成了青州花卉产业的特色。 产业能力赋予了这座城市不断迭代的能力,让青州 ...
特色产业多点开花“链”通百姓致富路 乡村振兴展现蓬勃气象
Yang Shi Wang· 2025-07-13 06:18
今年,古路镇辣椒种植面积超2000亩,预计总产值可达1000余万元,直接带动500余名村民实现"家门口"就业增收。 央视网消息:盛夏时节,重庆巫溪县的两万余亩辣椒进入采收期,村民们抢抓农时采摘辣椒,供应各地的蔬菜市场。 在巫溪县古路镇的辣椒种植基地,记者看到,一垄垄辣椒成行成列,村民们穿梭于辣椒丛中,熟练地采摘装筐,紧接着又有专人将这些辣 椒运回加工厂进行打包、装箱。接下来,这些辣椒就会启程发往湖南、上海等地,供应市民的餐桌。 在威海,山东农担已累计为牡蛎产业提供担保贷款近11亿元。作为山东省人民政府批准设立的政策性农业信贷担保机构,自2017年以来, 山东农担已累计为全省"三农"领域提供担保贷款2137.25亿元,扶持农业经营主体达31.85万户。 江苏沭阳:紫薇盛放引热销 目前正值紫薇树苗销售旺季,江苏宿迁市沭阳县大大小小的紫薇种植基地里一片繁忙景象。 沭阳县花农徐帮国告诉记者,进入七月以来,他家一百多亩的紫薇花进入最佳观赏期,线上咨询量和订单量大幅增长,日均销售额超万 元,客户遍布全国多个省份。 这边的工人们手持铁锹小心翼翼地挖掘树苗,确保根系完整带土球;那边的工人则是熟练地将起出的紫薇树修枝打包;而物 ...
【环球财经】巴西SLC公司预计2024/25年度第二季度玉米单产将超预期
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-07-13 05:53
新华财经圣保罗7月12日电(记者杨家和)巴西大型农业企业SLC农业公司(SLC Agrícola)近日发布公 告称,2024/25年度第二季度玉米单产预计将达到每公顷7927公斤,较最初预算每公顷7542公斤高出 5.1%,并较第一季度预测上调7.8%。该公司还计划大幅扩展灌溉种植面积,以提升应对气候风险的能 力。 据公司披露,尽管2024/25年度第一季度棉花单产预计将同比下降7.5%,至每公顷1888公斤,但第二季 度棉花单产有望增长9.7%,达到2096公斤/公顷,有助于弥补前期损失。 同时,SLC农业公司对大豆产量的预测不变,预计单产为3958公斤/公顷,略低于原预算0.5%。 SLC农业公司是巴西最大和最主要的大宗农产品种植商之一,在全国多州拥有大量种植基地,核心业务 涵盖大豆、玉米、棉花等作物的规模化生产。 (文章来源:新华财经) 在另一份公告中,SLC农业公司表示其土地资产组合较去年同期升值7.1%,估值从115.9亿雷亚尔升至 近134亿雷亚尔。公告称据德勤会计师事务所评估,其可耕地平均每公顷价值为58960雷亚尔。 为进一步提升土地利用效率,SLC农业公司还计划将目前16025公顷的灌溉面积 ...
一座温带城市 想成为中国“热植之都”
Jing Ji Guan Cha Bao· 2025-07-13 04:50
(原标题:一座温带城市 想成为中国"热植之都") "花二代"郝健是山东省青州市第一个种植热带植物(下称"热植")的人。2020年,他种出的一棚茁壮的 白锦龟背竹(下称"白龟")给市场带来了不小的震撼。热植是近年来颇受年轻人喜爱的绿植种类,也被 称为年轻人的"新潮玩",流行的品种包括龟背竹、花烛、蔓绿绒等。 此后五年时间,这座位于北纬36度的温带城市开始大规模种植热植,并逐渐成为中国热植种植最集中的 区域之一。大量电商平台上的热植商家来自青州地区,甚至青州种植的一些热植产品还会返销至泰国等 热带国家。 目前,青州热植花卉的总产值已经突破10亿元。 青州是中国"花木之乡"。这里曾经出产中国80%的多肉植物,也是兰花等多种花卉的主要产区。在四十 多年的发展过程中,青州在基础设施、产业配套等方面形成了优势。更重要的是,这里积累了大量拥有 丰富经验和技术能力的农户和企业,"农户+企业"的模式成了青州花卉产业的特色。 产业能力赋予了这座城市不断迭代的能力,让青州能够不断产出满足不同代际爱好的花卉产品:从仙客 来、兰花到多肉植物,再到热植。这个过程中,青州在产业中扮演的角色也在不断迭代。 今年4月,青州举办了首届热带植物展 ...