"冰·JOYS一直在行业内引领着白酒冰镇、愉悦畅饮的风潮，打破白酒在年轻人心中的刻板印象。"张彪 为揭幕式致辞时表示，"今天，我们在798，以结合艺术展览、周边产品、餐酒融合的全新形式，打 造'灵感发酵局'。希望在当下快节奏、高压力的环境下，为大家提供一个舒适、悦己、释放压力的生活 场所。" "国窖1573不仅是中国白酒文化的典范，更是全球范围内最坚定支持当代艺术发展的品牌之一。"尤洋表 示，"在这个夏天，让我们共同感受艺术的温度，品味生活的诗意。愿每一位到场的朋友，都能在此收 获灵感、友谊与难忘的回忆。" 高伟光表示，"作为演员，我觉得灵感是'角色转换'，冰·JOYS也是'一次精彩的角色转换'，它像一把钥 匙，解锁了国窖1573更纯粹、更灵动、层次更丰富的一面——在经典的厚重与浓烈之上，焕发出更有活 力的时尚气质，让这股新潮的'冰饮旋风'吹向了年轻人的夏日生活。" 此次国窖1573冰·JOYS"灵感发酵局"邀请八位艺术家成为轮值主理人，推出"多巴胺灵感周""精神解码灵 感周""纯粹东方灵感周""重塑JOYS灵感周""明日创想灵感周""秘密狂欢灵感周"六大主题灵感周活动， 内容涵盖展览、艺术沙龙、狂欢派对、特 ...

Core Viewpoint - The event "Beautiful Life, Book Fragrance China" held in Xiamen focuses on the theme of "New Consumption Era and High-Quality Development," aiming to explore opportunities and challenges in the new consumption trend and to contribute to sustainable development in the industry and enterprises under the new era context [1][3]. Group 1: New Development Concepts - The new development concept is seen as a fundamental guideline for solving major contradictions in the new era and achieving high-quality development in China, providing a Chinese solution to global governance challenges [3][4]. - The new development concept is positioned as a pathway to promote a community of shared future for mankind, reflecting China's wisdom and approach to global development [3]. Group 2: High-Quality Development in New Consumption Era - Traditional industries can find new growth opportunities through renewal and upgrading, but true revolutionary transformation is necessary to navigate future challenges [4]. - Key insights for high-quality development include recognizing the broader context, understanding industry cycles, and ensuring strategic alignment with organizational culture [4]. Group 3: Case Study - China Resources Beer - China Resources Beer has demonstrated strategic leadership through initiatives like the "Mushroom Strategy" and "Coastal Strategy," which have been crucial for its market dominance [4]. - Continuous self-innovation and the courage to explore new avenues are essential for maintaining strategic advantages [4]. - The leadership capabilities within China Resources Beer have significantly contributed to its strategic success [4]. Group 4: Collaborative Ecosystem for Value Creation - High-quality development requires transcending commercial boundaries to achieve resonance between social and economic values [5]. - Companies should build collaborative ecosystems that foster innovation, co-create value, and ensure safety and control, adhering to a win-win philosophy [5]. - The event also included the launch of the book "Braving the Journey" and recognized exemplary units in the "Book Fragrance Enterprise Creation Project" [5].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing suspension of sales by major liquor companies, such as Sichuan Tuopai Shede and Shui Jing Fang, reflects a broader effort to stabilize pricing and address the issues of excessive inventory and price wars in the Chinese liquor industry [1][2][4]. Group 1: Company Actions - Sichuan Tuopai Shede announced a suspension of orders for its core product, Tuopai Tequ 2.0, effective July 10, with a date for resuming orders to be announced later [1]. - Shui Jing Fang implemented a full-channel suspension of its core product, Zhen Niang Ba Hao, and is tightening control over e-commerce channels to enforce pricing policies [1][2]. - Shui Jing Fang has taken strict measures against violations, including fines and termination of partnerships, to combat cross-regional sales and maintain pricing integrity [1]. Group 2: Industry Context - The liquor industry is experiencing unprecedented inventory pressure, with a shift in consumer drinking habits leading to increased market segmentation [4]. - Major liquor companies, including Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao, have adopted similar suspension measures to stabilize prices, indicating a collective industry response to the challenges faced [4]. - The high-end liquor market is seeing price fluctuations, while competition in the mid-range segment is intensifying, prompting companies to shift from a "channel pressure" model to a "sales-driven" approach [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The effectiveness of the suspension measures remains uncertain, as reducing market supply may alleviate downward price pressure but does not address the underlying inventory issues [5]. - The long-term recovery of the liquor industry hinges on restoring consumer confidence, balancing manufacturer interests, and optimizing product structures [5]. - The industry faces the challenge of achieving a smooth transition during this adjustment period while seeking new growth drivers [5].

中美股汇共振走强，资本回报的十字路口 历史上看无论是A股还是美股，市场走势基本都会领先ROE的趋势。而近期中美股市和汇率同时走强的 背后，我们认为体现了各自市场的投资者对未来企业资本回报的乐观预期。只不过这一次的不同之处在 于：A股定价的是处于历史低位的ROE企稳见底，而美股定价的是本就在历史高位的ROE能够继续像过 去一样继续上行。2021年Q4以来，A股在"去金融化、去地产化"和制造业不断升级、再投资的大趋势 下，激烈的竞争导致资本回报不断下降；相反，美股在政府不断债务扩张去刺激需求但供给和杠杆率低 位的背景下，享受到了比较高的ROE。未来上述两个趋势都将发生转变：对于美股而言，无论是减税政 策鼓励制造业投资还是跨国企业实现资本回流，中短期会对美国经济基本面形成支撑，但实际上长期反 而构成了对高ROE的压制，不过市场短期定价将聚焦在前端的总量回升。而对于A股而言，反内卷、海 外制造业活动＞服务业以及债务停止收缩这三个因素有可能成为资本回报企稳回升的来源，尽管短期国 内需求较弱，但中期上升趋势反而明确。历史上看，美股和A股的PB估值差和ROE的差距存在8个月左 右的时滞，在ROE差距收敛的趋势下中美股票市场 ...

Group 1: Global Market Performance - The MSCI Global Stock Index decreased by 0.34%, while the Bloomberg Global Commodity Index fell by 0.42%, the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Bond Index dropped by 0.89%, and the FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Global REITs Index declined by 0.90% [1] - Emerging markets outperformed developed markets, with only the Chinese stock market rising among the BRICS nations; the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.82% and the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.93% [1] - In developed markets, the European STOXX Index rose by 1.15%, with Germany's DAX Index up by 1.97% and France's CAC40 Index up by 1.73%, while U.S. indices fell, with the S&P 500 down by 0.31% [1] Group 2: Commodity Market Insights - Brent crude oil futures rose by 3.02% to $70.36 per barrel, while WTI crude oil futures increased by 2.16% to $68.45 per barrel [4] - Industrial metals showed mixed performance; aluminum prices increased by 0.50%, while copper prices fell by 2.07% [2] - Gold prices rose by 0.55% to $3,355.59 per ounce, and silver prices increased by 4.02% [2] Group 3: Bond Market Developments - U.S. Treasury yields saw a slight increase, with the 10-year yield rising by 6.4 basis points to 4.411% [2] - European countries also experienced rising yields, with the UK's 10-year yield up by 3.6 basis points to 4.620% [2] - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.69% to 97.853, while the Japanese yen depreciated by over 2% against the dollar [2] Group 4: Economic Data and Trends - U.S. initial jobless claims were reported at 227,000, slightly below expectations, while continuing claims rose to 1.965 million [3] - The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes indicated a divergence in views on interest rate adjustments, with some members favoring rate cuts while others expressed concerns about persistent inflation [3] - The Eurozone's retail sales increased by 1.8% year-on-year, surpassing expectations [3] Group 5: REITs and Real Estate Market - The global REITs market saw a decline, with the STOXX Global 1800 REITs Index down by 1.03% [10] - U.S. REITs showed varied performance across sectors, with hotel REITs outperforming expectations [10] - The outlook for REITs remains mixed, with healthcare REITs showing consistent growth while retail REITs face volatility [10] Group 6: Investment Opportunities - Investors are advised to monitor oil price fluctuations due to geopolitical risks and OPEC+ production increases [7] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may enhance gold's safe-haven appeal, prompting investors to consider gold price trends [9] - The potential for further monetary easing by central banks could create long-term investment opportunities in REITs [10]

Core Insights - The global spirits industry is facing a complex and challenging international environment, with China’s liquor industry experiencing a transformation in consumption structure and deep adjustments in competition [4][5] Industry Overview - The Chinese liquor industry is currently in a phase of "three overlapping periods," characterized by capacity growth against demand slowdown, insufficient consumption momentum, and weakening consumption scenarios [4] - Despite challenges, the overall development of the Chinese liquor industry remains positive, with baijiu as the dominant segment, although it faces significant market pressure [4][7] - The beer sector shows stability with consistent production and growth in revenue and profitability, while the wine market struggles with insufficient demand and ongoing pressure from imported wines [4][7] - Huangjiu is gaining support from local governments and is improving through marketing and innovation efforts, while other liquor types like liqueurs and domestic whiskey are also showing potential for growth [4][7] Economic Environment - The government is increasing fiscal support to stimulate domestic demand and consumption, promoting rural revitalization and green development [5] - The liquor industry is shifting from volume-driven growth to quality-driven growth, emphasizing rational growth and avoiding blind pursuit of high growth rates [5][8] Market Characteristics - Domestic consumption dominates the market, with beer and baijiu accounting for 93% of total consumption, while other categories like wine and liqueurs make up the remaining 7% [7] - The liquor market is characterized by low industry concentration, with 90% of the market comprised of small and micro enterprises [7] - Competition is intensifying, particularly among younger consumers who are driving the rise of beer and whiskey, while baijiu consumption is declining [7][8] Future Outlook - The industry is expected to undergo significant transformation by 2025, necessitating strategic adjustments and a focus on quality over quantity [8][9] - Policy support and regulatory frameworks will create a conducive environment for healthy and orderly development of the liquor industry [9][10] - Emphasis on cultural integration and innovation will be crucial for the industry to thrive and connect with consumers on a deeper level [10]

"烟台通过联盟将葡萄酒生产、文化旅游和生态保护深度融合，为全球葡萄酒产区的可持续发展提 供了'烟台方案'。"7月2日—5日，2025葡萄酒旅游大会在烟台市举行，全球葡萄酒旅游组织主席何塞·安 东尼奥对烟台酒旅融合发展的创新实践给予高度认可。 本次大会会集了五大洲20余个国家和地区的300余名代表，沉浸式体验"仙境海岸+葡萄美酒"的独特 魅力，共话全球葡萄酒旅游产业高质量发展。会上发布了《全球葡萄酒旅游烟台宣言》，将"推动负责 任的葡萄酒旅游"作为全球共同倡议。全球葡萄酒旅游组织授予烟台"国际负责任葡萄酒旅游目的地"认 证，授予蓬莱"全球杰出海岸葡萄酒旅游目的地"证书。 如此重要的全球性会议为何选在烟台召开？"酒旅融合"，葡萄酒旅游年均接待量高达300万人次， 是烟台给出的答案。 烟台是中国工业葡萄酒的发源地。自1892年张裕公司创立开始，烟台葡萄酒产区历经133年的发 展，集聚了204家葡萄酒企业、63座知名酒庄，形成丘山谷、柳林河谷、瀑拉谷三大重点子产区。如 今，烟台葡萄酒产量占全国的40%、销售额占60%，2025年品牌价值达862.31亿元，连续九年稳居中国 葡萄酒榜首。 近年来，面对葡萄酒行业下行和深 ...

三五知己，推杯换盏，两杯小酒既可以在餐桌上成为主角，成为调节气氛的利器；也能够让人暂时忘却 俗世的烦恼，获得短暂的愉悦。 对于拥有主场优势的白酒来说，这本来是自带buff的绝妙开局。但白酒行业自2021年开始年年跑输大盘 的疲软，似乎又证明了事情并不如想象中那么美妙。 白酒，"等待戈多" 在年初发布的2025年酒业市场走向预测中，中国酒业协会曾明确表示，"白酒头部领军企业稳步前行， 整体态势2025年优于2024年，酒业前景一片向好"。 本文来自微信公众号：新周刊 （ID：new-weekly），作者：梓晨，编辑：DR，头图来自：AI生成 中国人爱喝酒，也需要酒精的作用。 而现在，随着消费回归理性，原本就处于调整周期的白酒行业，也放下了年内向上反弹的期望。 然而，事实证明，行业"触底反弹"的前提是已经"见底"。 2025年5月，随着相关规定出台，贵州茅台、五粮液、泸州老窖等头部白酒企业股价集体下挫，单日跌 幅均超2%。 继消费面的挑战之后，白酒业再遭政策面的影响，关于行业的前景描述变成了"产业升级迫在眉睫"。 半年后，中国酒业协会发布的《2025中国白酒市场中期研究报告》显示，商务宴请在半年内的市场中占 比持 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the food and beverage industry, particularly highlighting the long-term investment value of leading traditional consumer companies after adjustments [4][8]. Core Views - The report emphasizes that the head enterprises in traditional consumption have adjusted and now possess long-term investment value from a dividend and yield perspective. It notes that the performance of food stocks with new consumption characteristics will diverge in the future, focusing on companies with genuine long-term competitiveness and improvement potential [4][8]. - In the liquor sector, it is anticipated that sales pressure will remain significant due to slow macro demand recovery and limited consumption scenarios. The report recommends key companies such as Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao, while keeping an eye on Wuliangye, Jiansu Yanjia, and Yingjia Gongjiu [4][8]. - For the mass consumer goods sector, the report suggests that cost advantages will support profitability, and new products and channels will drive growth. It recommends leading companies in mature sectors like dairy and beer, and highlights growth opportunities in new retail formats and categories driven by consumer trends towards self-care, health, and convenience [4][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights on Food and Beverage - The food and beverage sector saw a 0.84% increase last week, with liquor rising by 1.41%. However, it underperformed the broader market by 0.25 percentage points, ranking 26th among 31 sub-industries [7][43]. 2. Market Performance of Food and Beverage Sectors - The report indicates that the food and beverage industry underperformed the Shenwan A index by 0.73 percentage points from July 7 to July 11, 2025. The sub-industries, including liquor, beer, and snacks, also showed varying degrees of underperformance [43][44]. 3. Key Company Updates - Yanjing Beer expects a net profit of 1.06 to 1.14 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 40% to 50% [12]. - Dongpeng Beverage anticipates a net profit of 2.31 to 2.45 billion yuan for H1 2025, reflecting a growth of 33.5% to 41.6% [13]. - Youyou Foods projects a net profit of 105 to 112 million yuan for H1 2025, marking a growth of 37.91% to 47.57% [14]. 4. Price Trends and Cost Changes - The average price of fresh milk in major production areas is 3.04 yuan/kg, down 6.5% year-on-year. The report also notes price trends for various agricultural products, including pork and soybeans [24][39][40].

证券研究报告 最新A股、港股、美股估值怎么看？ ——估值周报（0707-0711） 李立峰 SAC NO:S1120520090003 冯逸华 SAC NO:S1120523070007 2025年7月12日 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 全球主要指数估值总览 注：自2010年1月起，截至2025年7月11日 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 上证指数 创业板指 恒生指数 恒生科技 标普500 纳斯达克指数 道琼斯工业指数 日经225 德国DAX 中位数 最大值 最小值 现值 A股 港股 美股 日股 德股 图表1：全球主要指数PE(TTM) 资料来源： wind ，华西证券研究所 2 目录 风险提示 3 一、A股市场估值水平 二、A股行业估值水平 三、部分机构集中持有个股估值水平 四、港股市场估值水平 五、港股行业估值水平 六、美股市场估值水平 七、中概股估值、中美银行股估值比较 1.1 A股绝对估值变化 图表2、3：A股整体PE(TTM)、A股剔除金融和石油石化PE(TTM，剔除负值) 15.94 2010-01 2011-01 2012-01 2013-01 2014-0 ...