原标题：浙江加快建设全国首个"智慧农业引领区"——田野用上大模型 种地就是不一样 2024年，农业农村部将全国首个"智慧农业引领区"的建设重任交给浙江。近日，记者从全省智慧农 业引领区建设现场推进会上了解到，浙江正加快制定《智慧农业引领区建设实施方案（2025—2030 年）》，将依托一体化智能化公共数据平台，围绕种植业、畜牧业、渔业等核心产业，加速推进以大模 型为代表的AI（人工智能）技术在农业领域的深度应用见效。 AI的核心能力在于感知、决策与执行。当大模型遇上农业，正赋予农业前所未有的自主分析与预 测能力，驱动着无人化生产和全链条智能化变革，成为智慧农业跃升的关键引擎。 在浙江的田间地头、牧场车间、广袤市场，一场由大模型驱动的农业革命正悄然重塑千年农耕的面 貌。 利用数字孪生，突破凭经验和感觉 从毛竹大棚、山地脚手架单体棚、山地平顶连栋棚、山地拱形连栋棚，到如今的第五代山地智能化 大棚，兰溪杨梅产业协会会长陶奉源算是把设施杨梅"越玩越明白"了。他又有了一个新的目标——打造 杨梅的"数字孪生"。 动植物"数字孪生"，就是利用数字技术，创建动植物的虚拟模型，使其在虚拟空间中能够反映现实 中动植物的动态变化和 ...

Core Insights - The transformation of a former mining site into a modern beef cattle breeding demonstration park in Inner Mongolia showcases a successful model of ecological restoration and efficient land use [1][2][3] Group 1: Project Overview - The project initiated by the local government focuses on ecological priority and green development, converting abandoned sand pits into suitable land for livestock farming [1] - The beef cattle breeding demonstration park currently houses 11,000 cattle, with a potential capacity of 20,000 upon full operation, marking it as the first large-scale beef cattle farm built on a high-standard mining reclamation project [2] Group 2: Economic and Social Impact - The project has improved the local environment and created job opportunities for nearby residents, enhancing their income potential [2] - The innovative model of deep integration between livestock farming and agricultural enterprises has led to stable income for village collectives and employment for villagers, fostering a community of shared interests [3] Group 3: Future Plans and Industry Development - The park plans to expand its breeding stock by introducing 7,000 purebred Angus breeding cows in 2024, with an additional 13,000 Angus cattle to establish the largest purebred Angus breeding base in the region [2] - The initiative aims to elevate the beef industry by promoting high-quality breeding and standardized farming practices, thereby increasing product value and market competitiveness [2][3]

重视行业格局变化，逐浪涨价周期 - 2025 年农业中期策 略 20250627 摘要 国内牛存栏量自 2023 年中期持续下降，预计今年降幅超 10%；全球牛 存栏自 2022 年起下降，预计今年继续减少。中国政策减少牛肉进口， 多重因素共同推动国内肉牛价格上涨，或将维持两年以上的上行周期。 原奶价格预计 2026 年企稳向上，与肉牛价格存在联动性。2024 年初 奶牛存栏量持续下降，同比去化超 5%，九成牧场亏损。预计 2025 年 下半年奶价或供需平衡并有上行空间，进口量预计下降，利好国内供需 平衡。 生猪养殖板块受供给侧改革推动，中长期盈利提升逻辑明确。政策指引 生猪库存、体重、二次育肥及能繁母猪存栏量。若生猪存量有效控制在 3,950 万头或更低水平，行业扣减利润可期，领先企业养殖利润接近 400 元每头。 生猪养殖行业供给端和盈利端情况：预计 2025 年生猪供给量比 2024 年有所增加，但生产效率提升和疫病影响使得实际供给量仍存在不确定 性。今年全年的均价将在每公斤 4.5 元上下浮动，而利润可能压缩至头 均几十到头均 100 元左右。 Q&A 今年（2025 年）下半年农业板块的涨价品种有哪 ...

Summary of the Conference Call for Yuran Dairy Industry Industry Overview - The dairy industry is expected to see a moderate recovery in milk prices in 2025, influenced by summer heat stress, mid-to-high-end dairy product consumption, and new national standards [2][3][4] - The original milk price is projected to stabilize in Q3 2025 and rise in Q4 2025, supported by cash flow pressures faced by social pastures during the silage procurement season [2][10] Key Points Milk Price Expectations - Milk prices are anticipated to rise to around 3.8 RMB/kg, with fluctuations expected to be moderate rather than drastic [4][22] - The average milk price for 2024 was 4.12 RMB/kg, with a sales cost of 2.77 RMB/kg, where feed costs accounted for approximately 70%-75% of total costs [2][21] Company Strategy and Performance - Yuran Dairy aims for a low single-digit growth in the number of dairy cows in 2025, with production and sales expected to exceed 4 million tons [2][5] - The company’s fresh milk pricing is above the market average, with a 2024 average of 4.12 RMB/kg compared to the national average of 3.32 RMB/kg [2][6] - The company plans to maintain a stable gross margin in 2025, benefiting from a recovery in beef prices which will reduce losses from culling [5][21] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The culling of dairy cows is accelerating due to rising beef prices, which are nearing 20 RMB/kg, alleviating cash flow pressures on pastures [2][9] - The number of dairy cows in China has been decreasing, with a monthly reduction of approximately 35,000 to 40,000 heads from January to April 2025, slowing to 10,000 heads in May [3][4] Cost and Profit Analysis - A change of 0.1 RMB/kg in milk price or cost is expected to impact annual net profit by approximately 400 million RMB [3][21] - The company’s average sales ratio remains stable at 97%-98%, with no sales pressure due to unlimited purchases from downstream clients [12] Market Trends and Consumer Behavior - There is a structural change in demand, with a shift from room temperature milk to low-temperature milk and an increase in the high-end segment of infant formula and elderly milk powder [10][11] - The company is exploring international markets, including Hong Kong and Southeast Asia, to expand its customer base [11] Future Outlook - The dairy industry is expected to stabilize and see a gradual recovery in milk prices, indicating that the most challenging period may be nearing its end [20][22] - The company is focusing on enhancing operational efficiency and maintaining a balanced supply-demand relationship to navigate future market fluctuations [22][29] Additional Insights - The company has expanded its product line to include goat milk, which is gaining popularity due to its digestibility [25] - The breeding business is progressing well, with a focus on improving the quality of dairy cows through advanced breeding techniques [26] This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections discussed during the conference call, highlighting the strategic direction and market dynamics of Yuran Dairy Industry.

Core Insights - Inner Mongolia is actively promoting the transformation and development of agriculture and animal husbandry, focusing on ecological agriculture and deep processing of agricultural products to enhance the quality and efficiency of the industry [2][6]. Group 1: Agricultural Production Optimization - The introduction of intercropping, such as planting sunflowers between rows of wheat, has led to a 30% increase in net profit per mu [2]. - In 2024, grain production in Inner Mongolia is expected to reach 82.01 billion jin, with an average yield increase of 24.2 jin per mu [2]. Group 2: Structural Improvement - The region is optimizing its production structure by developing 18 advantageous industrial belts for crops and livestock, including corn, wheat, and beef [4]. - The focus is on selecting high-quality varieties and efficient planting models to ensure both yield and income for farmers [4]. Group 3: Technological Empowerment - The contribution rate of agricultural technology progress in Inner Mongolia has reached 62.4%, with over 90% mechanization in crop farming [5]. - Smart farming technologies are being adopted, allowing for automated feeding and management of livestock, significantly improving efficiency [5]. Group 4: Deep Processing and Value Chain Extension - The development of deep processing in agriculture aims to extend the industrial chain, with a target of achieving a processing conversion rate of over 78% for major agricultural products in 2023 [6]. - The agricultural industry in Inner Mongolia is projected to exceed 700 billion yuan in key industry chain output value by 2024 [6].

投资建议 行情回顾： 本周（2025.06.23-2025.06.27）农林牧渔（申万）指数收于 2661.46 点(周环比+0.80%)， 沪深 300 指数收于 3921.76 点（周环比+1.95%），深证综指收于 2052.56 点（周环比+4.24%），上证综指收于 3424.23 点（周环比+1.91%），科 创板收于 988.21 点（周环比+3.17%)，农林牧渔行业指数跑输上证综指。 牧业： 截至 6 月 28 日，我国主产省集贸市场活牛价格 26.52 元/公斤，环比-0.48%，目前为动物蛋白消费淡季，牛肉价格保 持震荡状态；奶牛方面截至 6 月 20 日主产区合同内外平均收购价为 3.04 元/公斤，环比-0.3%，同比-7.88%，奶价下 跌幅度持续放缓，散奶价在 2.3 元出场附近止稳。我们预计随着供给端产能去化的逐步传导，原奶价格在 25H2 有望 企稳回升；肉牛方面近期犊牛与活牛价格已经出现上涨，预计新一轮肉牛周期有望开启，板块景气度有望拐点向上。 种植链： 近期小麦启动最低收购价预案，对小麦价格存在较强底部支撑，同时玉米端下游库存持续消化，玉米价格出现小幅反 弹。在外部环境不 ...

农林牧渔 2025 年 06 月 29 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 农林牧渔 沪深300 相关研究报告 《消费逐步进入淡季，短期鸡价或有 压力—行业点评报告》-2025.6.23 《供给收缩已至支撑猪价上行，618 宠物食品龙头表现亮眼—行业周报》 -2025.6.22 《6 月 USDA 农产品报告上调全球玉 米、水稻、小麦产量，维持全球大豆 产 量 预 期 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》- 2025.6.17 10 2025Q2 猪企利润或仍同比高增，供给收缩宏观催化 共振积极配置 ——行业周报 | 陈雪丽（分析师） | 王高展（联系人） | 朱本伦（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | chenxueli@kysec.cn | wanggaozhan@kysec.cn | zhubenlun@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790520030001 | 证书编号：S0790123060055 | 证书编号：S0790124060020 | 周观察：20 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a strong rally this week, with the North Securities 50 index leading the major broad-based indices with a weekly increase of 6.84% [3] - Major indices saw comprehensive gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.91%, the CSI 300 by 1.95%, and the ChiNext Index by 5.69% [4] Trading Sentiment - The market's strong rise was accompanied by a steady increase in trading volume, indicating improved liquidity [3] - The volume timing indicator for the North Securities 50 remains cautious, while other major indices have shifted to a bullish signal [3] Fund Flow - ETF funds showed signs of profit-taking, with an overall net outflow from equity ETFs, particularly in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and small-cap stocks [3] - Southbound capital saw a net inflow of 28.381 billion HKD, with the Shanghai Stock Connect contributing 13.489 billion HKD and the Shenzhen Stock Connect 14.892 billion HKD [10] Valuation Metrics - As of June 27, 2025, broad-based indices such as the Shanghai Composite, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are at "moderate" valuation percentiles, while the ChiNext Index is at a "safe" valuation percentile [5] - In terms of sector valuation, industries like electricity and public utilities, home appliances, food and beverage, agriculture, non-bank financials, and transportation are classified as "safe" [6] Volatility Analysis - The cross-sectional volatility of the CSI 300 and CSI 500 index constituents increased week-on-week, indicating an improved short-term Alpha environment [7] - Conversely, the cross-sectional volatility of the CSI 1000 index constituents decreased, suggesting a weakening short-term Alpha environment [7] Institutional Focus - The top five stocks attracting the most institutional attention this week were Huichuan Technology (151 institutions), Weigao Medical (144), Jingbeifang (79), AVIC Chengfei (66), and Cangge Mining (64) [9]

Core Viewpoint - The city of Qingdao is focusing on enhancing the development of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and the private economy, aiming to create a supportive business environment and boost confidence among enterprises [1][5]. Group 1: Economic Contributions - In the first five months, the private economy contributed over 60% of the city's investment (62.2%) and tax revenue (60.0%), over 70% of imports and exports (70.8%), over 80% of urban new employment (89.0%), and over 90% of the number of operating entities (98.4%) and enterprises (96.0%) [3]. Group 2: Industry Development - Qingdao has established 3 new provincial-level characteristic industrial clusters, totaling 6 national-level characteristic industrial clusters, ranking first in the province and tied for first among national plan-separated cities [3]. - The city ranks 8th among sub-provincial cities in the 2024 national SME development environment assessment, with the market environment index ranking 3rd nationally, an improvement of 2 positions from the previous year [3]. Group 3: Initiatives and Actions - A special working group for the development of the private economy (SMEs) has been established [7]. - Various events and initiatives have been launched, including media exchange meetings, training for foreign trade enterprises, and campaigns to promote the Private Economy Promotion Law [8][9][10]. - The city is implementing a "service-oriented law enforcement" model to ensure fair and civilized law enforcement while supporting enterprise development [10].

Core Insights - The Cameroon Small and Medium Enterprises Bank (BC-PME) has committed to support local dairy and fish producers through a partnership with the Ministry of Fisheries, Livestock, and Animal Industries under the Agricultural and Fisheries Import Substitution Comprehensive Program (PIISA) [1] - The total budget for this initiative is estimated at 680 billion CFA francs (approximately $1.13 billion) covering the period from 2024 to 2026, aiming to enhance local production and reduce imports of various agricultural products [1] - In 2023, Cameroon imported 234,572 tons of fish valued at 182.5 billion CFA francs (approximately $300 million), with a 3% decrease in import volume compared to the previous year [1] - Cameroon spent over 35 billion CFA francs (approximately $0.06 billion) on importing 17,217 tons of milk powder and condensed milk, with a year-on-year increase of 2 billion CFA francs (approximately $0.03 billion) [2] Financial Implications - The financing will be facilitated through specialized banking products aimed at projects related to the production and processing of dairy and fish [1] - The initiative is expected to significantly impact the trade deficit, where the imported products accounted for 44% to 71% of the trade deficit over the past decade [1] Market Context - The program targets a reduction in imports of rice, corn, wheat, palm oil, fish, dairy, and other grains, which are critical to improving local agricultural output [1] - The current local fish production stands at 230,000 tons, indicating a need for increased domestic production to meet local demand and reduce reliance on imports [1]