中国 5 月通胀数据基本符合预期 我国国内物价水平偏低的问题仍在持续，出口和进口走弱的压 力均开始凸显。基本面依然利多债市。 宏观策略（股指期货） 中美经贸磋商机制首次会议在英国伦敦举行 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-06-10 宏观策略（国债期货） 日度报告——综合晨报 中美经贸磋商机制会议在英国伦敦举行 综 从 5 月外贸数据看，即便联合声明已达成，但中美经贸往来却无 明显改善，反映美国政策的不确定性已经从中期角度改变了企 业的基准预期。持续跟踪中美会谈的结果。 合 宏观策略（美国股指期货） 晨 亚马逊还考虑在美国宾州投资另外 100 亿美元 报 市场等待中美贸易协商进展，科技板块延续涨势，三大股指波 动降低，涨跌不一。 农产品（豆油/菜油/棕榈油） 全国主要地区菜油库存统计 国内豆棕油累库，等待 MPOB 数据发布。 黑色金属（焦煤/焦炭） 华东市场炼焦煤偏弱运行 短期来看，当前双焦基本面并没有发生质的变化，短期仍按反 弹对待，但宏观环境变化，因此需关注整体工业品带来的变化， 谨慎追多，建议观望为主 能源化工（原油） 中国 5 月原油进口量环比下降 油价反弹，美伊谈判进展不明朗支撑油价。 ...

6月9日，国家统计局发布数据显示，5月份，居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比下降0.2%，同比下降 0.1%；扣除食品和能源价格因素的核心CPI同比上涨0.6%，涨幅比4月份扩大0.1个百分点。工业生产者 出厂价格指数（PPI）环比下降0.4%，降幅与4月份相同；同比下降3.3%，降幅比4月份扩大0.6个百分 点。 国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟解读时表示，我国以更大力度和更精准措施提振消费，新质生产力 成长壮大，部分领域供需关系有所改善，价格呈现积极变化。 核心CPI温和回升 董莉娟分析称，5月份CPI环比由涨转降主要受能源价格下降影响。5月份，能源价格环比下降1.7%，影 响CPI环比下降约0.13个百分点，占CPI总降幅近七成。其中，汽油价格环比下降3.8%，降幅比4月份扩 大1.8个百分点。食品价格环比下降0.2%，降幅小于季节性水平1.1个百分点，影响CPI环比下降约0.04个 百分点。 此外，董莉娟表示，5月份，消费需求持续回暖，叠加假日和各地开展文体娱乐活动等因素影响，宾馆 住宿和旅游价格环比分别上涨4.6%和0.8%，均高于季节性水平，其中宾馆住宿价格环比涨幅创近十年 同期新高；夏装换季上新，服 ...

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 06 月 09 日 [Table_Title] 通胀仍弱，能源拖累 [Table_Title2] [Table_Summary] 5 月 CPI 同比-0.1%，高于预期-0.2%，前月-0.1%；CPI 环比-0.2%，前月 0.1%。剔除食品和能源的核心 CPI 环比持平，前月 0.2%。PPI 同比-3.3%，与预期持平，前月-2.7%；PPI 环比-0.4%，前月-0.4%。CPI 由正 转负，核心 CPI 由上涨转为持平，PPI 跌幅连续三月不变，如何看待 5 月通胀数据？ CPI 环比跌幅符合季节性规律，能源价格是主要拖累。5 月 CPI 环比-0.2%，持平于 2015-2019 年和 2021- 2024 年同期均值。拆分来看， （1）能源价格对 CPI 继续形成拖累。消费品价格下降 0.3%，其中交通工具用燃料分项为-3.7%。据统计局 新闻稿，能源价格环比下降 1.7%，影响 CPI 环比下降约 0.13 个百分点，占 CPI 环比总降幅近七成。从驱动因 素来看，OPEC+自 4 月起执行增产计划，导致 5 月布伦特原油价 ...

Group 1 - The core objective of macroeconomic policy in the second half of the year is to promote a reasonable recovery of price levels, which will create space for fiscal measures to boost consumption and investment, as well as for further interest rate cuts by the central bank [1][2][5] - In May, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, marking the fourth consecutive month of negative growth, primarily due to falling energy prices and lower food prices [1][3][4] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a year-on-year decline of 3.3% in May, with the drop in production material prices contributing significantly to this decline [1][6][10] Group 2 - The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose by 0.6% year-on-year in May, indicating a slight improvement in underlying price levels [1][4][5] - The decline in food prices, particularly fresh vegetables and eggs, has been a major factor in the overall CPI decrease, with fresh vegetable prices dropping by 8.3% year-on-year [3][4][6] - The implementation of policies aimed at boosting consumption, such as the trade-in program for vehicles and appliances, has provided some support to prices in certain sectors [4][5][8] Group 3 - The analysis indicates that while the PPI is expected to show marginal improvement, it is likely to remain in negative territory for some time due to external and internal pressures [8][9][10] - The demand for high-tech products is increasing, leading to price increases in sectors such as integrated circuits and aircraft manufacturing [8] - The overall economic environment remains challenging, with low inflation levels exerting pressure on corporate operations and employment [5][6]

Group 1: CPI and PPI Overview - In May, the national CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, while the PPI fell by 3.3% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month [1][2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.6% year-on-year, indicating a slight improvement in domestic economic resilience [1][4] - The decline in CPI was influenced by seasonal factors and falling oil prices, while the core CPI's increase reflects a recovery in consumer demand [2][3] Group 2: Sector-Specific Price Changes - In May, food prices decreased by 0.4%, while non-food prices remained stable; consumer goods prices fell by 0.5%, and service prices rose by 0.5% [2][4] - The industrial producer prices showed a year-on-year decline of 3.3%, with significant contributions from the petroleum and coal industries, which saw price drops of 5.6% and 3% respectively [5][6] - The prices of durable consumer goods, such as gold jewelry and home textiles, increased by 40.1% and 1.9%, respectively, indicating a shift in consumer spending patterns [3][4] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Policy Recommendations - Future policies should focus on boosting consumption through active fiscal measures to stimulate domestic demand and support price recovery [2][4] - Analysts expect a moderate recovery in prices throughout the year, driven by macroeconomic policies and improvements in supply structure [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The allocation value of stock indices continues to increase, with a clear upward trend in the long - term. It is recommended to buy IF and IM far - month contracts on dips [1]. - The intention to protect liquidity in the bond market is clear, and the expectation of the bond market has slightly improved, but it is difficult to form a trend - based market [1]. - For precious metals, the short - term gold price is expected to be volatile, and the medium - to - long - term price center will rise. It is advisable to buy on dips or hold short out - of - the - money put options. Silver has a high probability of upward valuation repair [4]. - For base metals, copper, aluminum, and nickel prices are expected to be range - bound, while alumina prices are expected to be weakly volatile [4]. - For energy and chemical products, crude oil prices have limited upside potential and will maintain high volatility; methanol and polyolefin prices are expected to decline [10]. - For building materials, the prices of soda ash and glass are expected to be weakly volatile, and it is recommended to hold short positions [8]. - For steel and coal, the prices of steel products, iron ore, coking coal, and coke are expected to be volatile, with a weakening trend [5][8]. - For agricultural products, cotton prices are expected to be range - bound, and rubber prices are expected to be weakly volatile [10]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Indices - Last week, the A - share market was strong, with communication and non - ferrous metals leading the gains, and home appliances and automobiles leading the losses. The trading volume on Friday decreased slightly to 1.18 trillion yuan. - In June, the A - share market started well, with technology stocks driving market sentiment and slightly boosting trading volume. - Overseas macro uncertainties have reduced global economic growth expectations, but Chinese assets have attracted the attention of foreign institutions. - The upward trend of stock indices is clear, but short - term breakthroughs require an increase in trading volume. It is recommended to buy IF and IM far - month contracts on dips [1]. Bonds - The central bank's intention to protect the market is clear, and the early announcement of repurchase operations has boosted market confidence. - Last Friday, bond futures closed higher. After the China - US call, China - US economic and trade consultations will be held in London. - The macro situation is uncertain, and the bond market is difficult to form a trend - based market. Short - term market conditions are mainly affected by liquidity [1]. Precious Metals - Gold: The short - term price is expected to be volatile, and the medium - to - long - term price center will rise. It is advisable to buy on dips or hold short out - of - the money put options. - Silver: The gold - silver ratio is high, and the valuation of silver is low. If the gold price remains strong, the probability of upward valuation repair of silver increases. It is advisable to hold short out - of - the money put options [4]. Base Metals Copper - Last week, copper prices fluctuated within a range. Macro uncertainties remain high, and the supply of copper ore is still tight. - The demand is affected by macro uncertainties and the domestic consumption off - season. - LME inventories are decreasing, while COMEX and SHFE inventories are increasing. Copper prices are expected to remain range - bound [4]. Aluminum and Alumina - Alumina: The supply is uncertain, but the short - term impact is weakening. The resumption of production is expected to increase supply pressure, and prices may continue to run close to the cost line. - Aluminum: The supply is constrained, with support at the bottom, but the demand policy is uncertain, and the directional driving force is limited [4]. Nickel - The supply of nickel ore is gradually recovering, and the supply of refined nickel is in excess. The demand from the stainless steel and new energy sectors is weak. - The price of nickel is expected to remain range - bound, and it is advisable to hold short call options [4]. Energy and Chemical Products Crude Oil - The US non - farm payrolls data exceeded expectations, and geopolitical disturbances continue. The number of US oil rigs has decreased significantly. - The demand for gasoline and diesel in the US is lower than expected. Oil prices have limited upside potential and will maintain high volatility [10]. Methanol - Overseas methanol plant operating rates have increased, and the price of thermal coal is stable. - Affected by positive factors such as the recovery of olefin plant demand and China - US talks, methanol futures prices have rebounded, but further upside is limited [10]. Polyolefins - The production of polyolefins has increased slightly, and more production capacity is expected to resume this week. - Downstream industries are entering the off - season, and the operating rate is decreasing. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long the L - PP spread [10]. Building Materials Soda Ash - The production of soda ash is expected to increase in June, while demand is weak. The supply is relatively loose, and inventory is high. - It is recommended to hold short positions in the SA509 contract and go short on rebounds near the cash cost line [2][8]. Glass - The glass market has entered the off - season, with weak demand and high inventory. - It is recommended to hold short positions in the FG509 contract and consider long - short spread strategies [8]. Steel and Coal Steel Products - The spot prices of steel products are weak, and demand has entered the off - season. - The results of the China - US trade negotiations will affect market sentiment. It is recommended to hold short call options for rebar and short positions for hot - rolled coils [5][8]. Iron Ore - The static supply - demand structure of imported iron ore is healthy, but the supply is expected to increase seasonally, and demand may decline. - It is recommended to hold the 9 - 1 positive spread combination or short the I2601 contract with a stop - loss [5][8]. Coking Coal and Coke - The supply of coking coal is in excess, and the price rebound is not sustainable. - The demand for coke is weak, and the price is under pressure [8]. Agricultural Products Cotton - The weather in the Xinjiang cotton - producing area is normal, and downstream demand is gradually recovering. - It is advisable to hold positions patiently and wait for a breakthrough in the price range [10]. Rubber - The supply of rubber is increasing, while demand is decreasing. The price is expected to be weakly volatile [10].

宏观氛围回暖，铜强铝弱 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 姓名：何彬 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F03090813 投资咨询证号：Z0019840 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：hebin@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 2025 年 6 月 9 日 铜铝周报 专业研究·创造价值 核心观点 铜：宏观氛围回暖，资金关注度上升，铜价震荡上行 上周铜价震荡上行，周四铜价增仓上行明显，主力期价一度站上 7.9 万关口。我们认为铜价的拉升一方面是中美关系趋于缓和，宏观 氛围回暖；另一方面是金融属性导致的补涨，从估值角度，无论是金 铜比还是金银比都处于历史高位。产业层面，节后电解铜社库小幅上 升，7-8 月差持续收窄，给予期价一定压力。整体来看，宏观利好铜 价，产业端进入淡季后市场对其消费预期较差，叠加库存边际上升， 使铜价承压。短期 ...

6月9日，国家统计局公布5月份居民消费价格指数（CPI）和工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）。 5月，CPI环比下降0.2%，同比下降0.1%，扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨0.6%，涨幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点。PPI环比下降0.4%，降幅与上月相 同，同比下降3.3%，降幅比上月扩大0.6个百分点。 东方金诚研究发展部总监冯琳在接受《每日经济新闻》记者（以下简称每经记者）微信采访时认为，5月CPI同比下降0.1%，略高于市场预期。主要原因是 当月工业消费品价格和服务价格同比涨幅扩大，抵消了国际原油价格下跌向国内能源价格传导以及食品价格同比降幅扩大的影响，带动整体CPI同比保持稳 定。 国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟认为，影响本月PPI环比下降的主要原因，一是国际输入性因素影响国内相关行业价格下降，二是国内部分能源和原材 料价格阶段性下行。 5月份，全国居民消费价格同比下降0.1% 图片来源：国家统计局 核心CPI同比上涨0.6% 5月，CPI同比下降0.1%，降幅与上月相同。扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨0.6%，涨幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点。 冯琳分析，5月应季蔬菜上市量增加，加之上年同 ...

5 月 CPI 同比增速略高于万得一致预期，PPI 同比增速略低于万得一致预期， 能源价格下跌继续拖累 CPI 和 PPI 同比增速；CPI 方面，5 月能源价格是主 要拖累因素，但服务价格表现较好，食品价格表现强于季节性；PPI 方面， 国内部分能源和原材料价格依然疲弱，但高端装备制造业价格有向好趋势。 宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2025 年 6 月 9 日 5 月通胀点评 内需依然疲弱，但部分产品价格有向好趋势 证券分析师：张晓娇 xiaojiao.zhang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300514010002 证券分析师：朱启兵 (8610)66229359 Qibing.Zhu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300516090001 5 月 CPI 环比下降 0.2%，同比下降 0.1%，核心 CPI 同比增长 0.6%，服务 价格同比增长 0.5%，消费品价格同比下降 0.5%。 从环比看，5 月份食品价格下降 0.2%，降幅小于季节性水平 1.1 个百分点， 影响 CPI 环比下降约 0.04 个百分点；能源价格环比下降 ...

"当前我国铜产业链呈现'原料进口紧缺、冶炼内卷严重、加工生存困难'的窘境。" 今年以来，铜价呈现"过山车"行情，其中沪铜期货主力合约创出阶段性新高后陡坡下行，有所反弹后维 持震荡行情。 国信期货首席分析师顾冯达分析称，未来一个月，铜价预计将在7.5万至8.3万元/吨区间波动，铜价高位 偏强震荡为主，整体抗跌性强，中长期来看铜价重心异涨难跌，关注全球政治经贸及供应链调整等潜在 风险。 从铜产业链的情况来看，顾冯达认为，当前我国铜产业链呈现"原料进口紧缺、冶炼内卷严重、加工生 存困难"的窘境。2025年中国铜企转型的核心特征可概括为产业转型升级、风险管理常态化。 金田股份（601609.SH）高级副总裁郑敦对第一财经记者称，该公司近几年两条腿走路，一方面在传统 赛道中，不断提高技术，推动产业往高端方向发展，另一方面在国家支持和鼓励的战略新兴赛道加大布 局力度，这部分的业务占比大幅上升。同时，为降低铜价带来的风险，根据订单和生产需求进行套期保 值。 季先飞也称，现在整个铜产业链从冶炼到终端消费，都处于压低利润的状态，冶炼方面若按照加工费来 计算，已经处于亏损状态，铜材加工企业的利润也较低，终端企业也不断往前端压价格 ...