2025年05月12日 星期一 商品期货早班车 招商期货 期货研究 黄金市场 | 招商评论 | | | --- | --- | | 贵 | 【市场表现】 | | 金 | 上周五贵金属价格震荡，以伦敦金计价的国际金价上涨 0.57%，收于 3324 美元/盎司。 | | 属 | 【消息面】多位美联储官员强调控制通胀预期的重要性，认为贸易政策不确定性或使利率保持在高位更长时 | | | 间；中美经贸高层会谈取得了实质性进展，达成了重要共识；日本首相石破茂重申"零关税"，要求美国全面 | | | 取消汽车关税；印巴双方宣布停火后不久，印控克什米尔地区再次传出爆炸声。印度指巴基斯坦违反停火协 | | | 议，巴方否认。 | | | 【经济数据方面】 | | | 中国 4 月 CPI 同比降 0.1%、与上月持平，PPI 同比降幅扩大至 2.7%；中国 4 月按美元计出口同比增长 8.1%， | | | 进口下降 0.2%；铜矿砂及其精矿进口量同比增 24%，原油进口增 7%，大豆进口减少 29%。 | | | 【库存数据方面】 | | | 国内黄金 ETF 前一交易日继续流入 1 吨左右，COMEX 黄金库存 121 ...

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Group 1: CPI Analysis - In April, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.1% month-on-month and decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, with the core CPI remaining stable [1] - The rise in CPI was driven by a recovery in food prices and travel service prices, with food prices up 0.2% month-on-month, exceeding seasonal levels by 1.4 percentage points [2] - The decline in CPI year-on-year was primarily influenced by a 4.8% drop in energy prices, with gasoline prices down 10.4%, contributing approximately 0.38 percentage points to the year-on-year decline [1][2] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, with the year-on-year decline widening compared to the previous month [1][3] - The Producer Purchase Price Index fell by 2.7% year-on-year, with a month-on-month decline of 0.6%, indicating increased price pressure in upstream materials due to external demand shocks [3] - Specific sectors such as coal mining and black metal mining continued to see price declines, while non-ferrous metal prices experienced a slight increase [3] Group 3: Policy Impact and Future Outlook - The government has intensified macro policies to promote consumption, leading to improved supply-demand relationships in certain industries, resulting in narrowed price declines [4] - High-tech industries are experiencing price increases, with wearable device manufacturing prices up 3.0% and aircraft manufacturing prices up 1.3% [4] - Analysts expect CPI to maintain a moderate trend due to domestic policy shifts towards expanding demand, while PPI may still face downward pressure amid various influencing factors [5]

日度报告——综合晨报 中美贸易谈判预计取得进展，美联储强调稳 定通胀重要性 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-05-12 宏观策略（黄金） 4 月中国 CPI 同比降 0.1%，PPI 同比降 2.7% 综 合 在散户交投活跃度高涨、消息面驱动的背景下，通胀压力和企 业业绩压力被市场忽视。当前市场估值水平已经修复至历史中 值附近，已经难言便宜，行情持续冲高将逐渐积累风险。 晨 宏观策略（美国股指期货） 报 美联储威廉姆斯强调稳定通胀重要 中美关税谈判达成共识，有望进行进一步谈判，对短期风险偏 好构成支持，美国股指期货涨幅近 1%。 黑色金属（动力煤） 2025 年 3 月日本煤炭进口 1237.98 万吨 中美贸易谈判取得进展 金价周五走势震荡表现偏弱，中美高层贸易谈判取得进展推动 金价周一开盘走低，关税问题和地缘军事冲突短期存在改善空 间，黄金短期仍有回调空间。 宏观策略（股指期货） 五一后，港口动力煤库存爆仓，煤价再度失守，港口 5500K 报 价约 645 元，前期 650 元支撑位跌破。关注 5 月份后火电日耗增 速以及国内煤矿开工率变化，或在此轮急跌后供 农产品（玉米） 中央气象台 5 ...

Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Analysis - In April, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) changed from a month-on-month decrease of 0.4% to an increase of 0.1%, while the core CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month [1][2] - The year-on-year CPI decreased by 0.1%, with the core CPI showing a stable increase of 0.5% [2][3] - Food prices rose by 0.2% month-on-month, with notable increases in beef (3.9%), marine fish (2.6%), and fresh fruits (2.2%), while fresh vegetables and pork prices fell by 1.8% and 1.6%, respectively [2] Group 2: Producer Price Index (PPI) Insights - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, maintaining the same decline as the previous month, with some industrial prices showing positive trends [4] - The decline in PPI is attributed to international input factors and seasonal decreases in domestic energy prices [6][7] - Certain industries, such as high-tech sectors, are experiencing price increases due to improved supply-demand relationships and policy support for consumption [4][5] Group 3: Economic Policy and Market Dynamics - The Chinese government is actively promoting consumption and implementing macroeconomic policies to stabilize and improve price levels [4][6] - The international trade environment and the diversification of trade are contributing to price increases in some export sectors, such as integrated circuit packaging and testing [5] - The overall economic recovery and demand rebound are expected to continue influencing price stabilization efforts [6]

从同比指数看，CPI下降0.4%，降幅较上月收窄0.1个百分点。其中，食品价格下降0.4%，降幅较上月收 窄0.5个百分点。猪肉价格上涨6.1%，涨幅较上月回落1.1个百分点；鲜果、水产品价格分别上涨3.4%和 1.0%，合计影响CPI上涨约0.10个百分点；牛肉、鲜菜价格分别下降6.5%和5.4%，合计影响CPI下降约 0.15个百分点。非食品价格同比下降0.4%，与上月持平。金饰品、在外餐饮、教育服务、服装价格分别 上涨37.3%、2.7%、1.1%和1.1%；汽油、飞机票、燃油小汽车、旅行社收费价格分别下降10.4%、 9.7%、5.8%和2.9%，合计影响CPI下降约0.77个百分点，其中汽油价格影响CPI下降约0.41个百分点。 据测算，在4月份CPI同比0.4%的降幅中，上年翘尾因素影响约为－0.68个百分点，2025年新涨价因素影 响约为0.28个百分点。 PPI环比降幅收窄、同比降幅扩大 2025年4月份，受国际输入性价格传导、煤炭等能源需求季节性下行与部分行业市场生产快于需求等因 素影响，广东工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）环比降幅收窄，同比降幅扩大。 5月11日，国家统计局广东调查总队公布 ...

华夏时报（www.chinatimes.net.cn）记者 张智 北京报道 从环比看，CPI由降转升，涨幅高于季节性水平0.2个百分点，主要是食品、出行服务回升带动。 5月10日，国家统计局发布的物价数据显示，4月份，全国居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比由上月下降0.4%转为上 涨0.1%，同比下降0.1%，降幅与上月相同；扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨0.5%。 "4月CPI同比增速大致符合市场预期，环比增速由降转升至0.1%，涨幅高于季节性水平0.2个百分点，主要是食 品、出行服务回升带动。4月PPI同比增速录得-2.7%，略好于市场预期，环比下降0.4%，主要受4月国际定价的大 宗商品价格下行等输入性因素影响，关税等国际经贸环境变化对PPI的影响暂未充分显现。"浙商证券首席经济学 家李超对《华夏时报》记者分析表示。 "虽然国际输入性因素对部分行业价格产生一定下拉影响，但我国经济基础稳、韧性强，各项宏观政策协同发力， 高质量发展扎实推进，部分领域价格呈现积极变化。"国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟解读数据时表示。 按照预测，二季度经济相较一季度将有所回落，全年可能呈现前高中低后稳的U型走势，物价回升 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the changes in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) in April, highlighting a shift in CPI from a decline to an increase, while PPI remains stable in its decline. The analysis indicates that various factors, including food prices and international commodity prices, are influencing these trends. CPI Analysis - In April, the CPI changed from a decrease of 0.4% in the previous month to an increase of 0.1%, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.1% remaining unchanged from the previous month [1][2] - The core CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month and rose by 0.5% year-on-year, maintaining stability [1][3] - Food prices rose by 0.2% month-on-month, exceeding seasonal levels by 1.4 percentage points, with beef prices increasing by 3.9% due to reduced imports [5] - Travel service prices saw significant increases, with airfares up by 13.5% and hotel prices up by 4.5%, contributing approximately 0.10 percentage points to the CPI increase [5][3] - Year-on-year, energy prices fell by 4.8%, with gasoline prices down by 10.4%, significantly impacting the CPI [5] PPI Analysis - The PPI decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, with the decline rate consistent with the previous month [6][7] - The decline in PPI is attributed to international factors affecting domestic prices, particularly in the oil and gas extraction sector, which saw a 3.1% decrease [9] - Seasonal declines in energy prices, particularly in coal mining, also contributed to the PPI decrease, with coal prices down by 3.3% [9] - Some industries are experiencing improved supply-demand relationships, leading to a narrowing of price declines, such as in the black metal smelting and non-metal mineral products sectors [10] Industry Trends - High-tech industries are driving price increases in related sectors, with wearable smart device manufacturing prices rising by 3.0% year-on-year [10][11] - Policies promoting consumption and equipment upgrades are showing effects, with prices in consumer goods and equipment manufacturing sectors experiencing reduced declines [10] - The diversification of trade is expanding markets, leading to price increases or reduced declines in certain export industries, such as integrated circuit packaging [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), highlighting the impact of international oil prices and domestic economic policies on these indices [1][2]. CPI Analysis - In April, the CPI showed a month-on-month increase of 0.1% after a previous decline of 0.4%, but year-on-year it decreased by 0.1% [1]. - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.5%, indicating stable inflation in essential goods [2]. - The year-on-year decline in CPI is attributed mainly to a significant drop in energy prices, which fell by 4.8%, with gasoline prices decreasing by 10.4%, contributing approximately 0.38 percentage points to the CPI decline [6]. PPI Analysis - The PPI decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, with the latter decline widening by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month [7]. - The drop in PPI is influenced by international commodity price declines, particularly in oil and gas extraction, which saw a price drop of 3.1%, and refined petroleum products, which fell by 2.5% [7]. - Seasonal factors also contributed, with coal prices declining as demand decreased post-heating season [7]. Positive Price Changes - Despite the overall decline in CPI and PPI, certain sectors are experiencing positive price changes due to improved supply-demand dynamics and government policies promoting consumption [9]. - Industries such as black metal smelting and non-metallic mineral products saw a narrowing of year-on-year price declines, indicating a recovery in demand [9]. - High-tech industries are also benefiting, with prices for wearable smart devices and aircraft manufacturing increasing by 3.0% and 1.3%, respectively [10]. Trade and Export Impact - The diversification of trade and market expansion has led to price increases in some export sectors, such as integrated circuit packaging, which rose by 2.7% [10]. - The government emphasizes the importance of maintaining prices within a reasonable range to support both consumer spending and corporate profitability [10].

广发证券首席经济学家 郭磊 guolei@gf.com.cn 摘要 第一， 2025 年 4 月 CPI 同比 -0.1% ，持平前值； PPI 同比 -2.7% ，低于前值的 -2.5% 。按 CPI 和 PPI 权重分别 60% 和 40% 模拟的平减指数为 -1.14% ，低于前值的 -1.06% 。 第二， CPI 环比为 0.1% ，好于 2-3 月的环比负增。上涨的价格线索主要有三：（ 1 ）进口减少影响牛肉 价格， 4 月牛肉价格环比上涨 3.9% ，同比降幅缩窄 5.9 个点；（ 2 ）五一假期居民出行活跃带动假期前 价格， 飞机票、交通工具租赁费、宾馆住宿和旅游价格环比分别上涨 13.5% 、 7.3% 、 4.5% 和 3.1% ，涨幅均高于季节性水平，合计影响 CPI 环比约 0.10 个百分点；（ 3 ）黄金价格上涨背景下，国内金饰品 价格环比上涨 10.1% ，影响 CPI 环比约 0.06 个百分点。 第三， 价格偏弱的领域包括：（ 1 ）猪肉价格环比继续下行，在过去 7 个月有 6 个月环比负增长；（ 2 ） 交通工具价格环比为 -0.3% ，显示汽车降价依然在延续；（ 3 ）酒 ...