证券研究报告 | 策略研究 gszqdatemark 2025 05 12 年 月 日 投资策略 财报过后，供给出清、出口链与高股息再梳理 一、策略专题：供给出清、出口链与高股息再梳理 4 月 30 日，A 股 2024 年报与 2025 一季报披露完毕，我们结合最新数据 对供给出清、出口链与高股息行业进行再梳理。 1.3 高股息：交运与消费部分行业股息率有明显抬升 我们结合各行业 2025 年现金分红情况与最新的 PE（ TTM）对预期股息率 进行测算，高股息重点行业包括煤炭开采、油气开采、炼化与贸易、航运 港口、白色家电等。值得提示的是，今年交运与消费部分行业股息率相对 上年有明显抬升，包括航运港口、物流、白色家电、装修建材等。 二、策略观点：变盘仍未结束，静待方向明确 大势研判：本周 A 股市场继续凸显韧性，ETF 保持净流出态势反映护盘资 金入场力度减少，而 A 股仍然稳中有升，同时成交量能保持在万亿以上。 此前我们指出，受海内外因素影响，市场处于变盘点，需要密切关注风格 是否出现切换：特朗普对华态度出现缓和、4 月政治局会议落地、A 股 2024 年报与 2025 一季报将完整披露。而目前来看，我们 ...

证券研究报告：食品饮料|深度报告 发布时间：2025-05-12 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:蔡雪昱 SAC 登记编号:S1340522070001 Email:caixueyu@cnpsec.com 分析师:张子健 SAC 登记编号:S1340524050001 Email:zhangzijian@cnpsec.com 分析师:杨逸文 SAC 登记编号:S1340522120002 Email:yangyiwen@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《关注内需，建议积极布局（附重点标 的一季度预测）》 - 2025.04.14 行业投资评级 强于大市 |维持 行业基本情况 | 收盘点位 | | 18019.54 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 19832.49 | | 52 周最低 | | 14118.56 | 行业相对指数表现（相对值） 2024-05 2024-07 2024-10 2024-12 2025-02 2025-05 -28% -24% -20% -16% -12% -8% -4% 0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 食品饮料 沪深30 ...

作 者丨尹华禄 编 辑丨陈思颖 面对蜜枣粽引发的舆情，来伊份（6 0 3 7 7 7 .SH）于5月1 2日早间正式回应。 来伊份发布公告称，近日，公司关注到蜜枣粽产品的相关舆情，管理层对此高度重视，第一 时间组织专项工作小组对相关问题进行全面核查，现予以说明。 来伊份表示，在关注到舆情的第一时间已启动全链路调查程序，并积极与相关消费者沟通， 确保消费者的健康与权益得到保障。 同时，公司已全面下架本批次蜜枣粽产品，消费者可选 择就近门店进行退换货，并可得到相同金额的额外补偿。 "公司将对相关问题进行全面调查，后续调查结果会及时向广大消费者公布。"来伊份称，未 来，公司将进一步加强供应商生产、产品运输、销售各项环节的食品安全管理，从源头上严 防、严控、严管，确保食品安全各项措施有效执行，为消费者提供更高质量的产品和服务。 图片来源：公司官网 据媒体报道， 近日有消费者发视频投诉在来伊份的粽子中吃出疑似带血创可贴的异物。 该消 费者在视频中表示，给小孩喂粽子，在里面发现了异物，"（为）创可贴……这个地方明显是 血"，并要求来伊份官方给一个明确的回应。 、 南 财 快 讯 记 者 注 意 到 ， 来 伊 份 的 天 ...

Group 1 - A consumer in Jiangsu reported finding a suspected blood-stained adhesive bandage in a rice dumpling from Laiyifen, prompting the company to initiate a full investigation and apologize for the incident [2] - Laiyifen has taken the affected product, the honey date rice dumpling, off the shelves and established a special team to investigate the matter, promising to cover any medical expenses incurred by consumers due to the incident [2][14] - The company emphasized its commitment to food safety, stating that each production process has designated inspection personnel and that any employee with visible injuries is prohibited from handling food directly [2][9] Group 2 - Laiyifen has faced multiple complaints regarding foreign objects in its products, including a case where a consumer found a stone in a dried fruit product, leading to a compensation of 1,000 yuan after intervention from local authorities [6][7] - In August, another complaint surfaced regarding moldy cashews, to which Laiyifen responded by expressing regret and promising to investigate the issue [9] - Since its establishment in 2001 and subsequent listing in 2016, Laiyifen has encountered growth challenges, with a reported revenue decline of 9.25% in 2023, totaling 3.977 billion yuan, and a significant profit drop of 44.09% [14][15]

证券研究报告 2025 年 05 月 12 日 | 市场数据 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 收盘 | 涨跌% | | 上证指数 | 3342.00 | -0.30 | | 深证成指 | 10126.83 | -0.69 | | 创业板指 | 2011.77 | -0.87 | | 科创 50 | 1006.32 | -1.96 | | 北证 50 | 1379.31 | -0.12 | | 沪深 300 | 3846.16 | -0.17 | A 股市场概览 | 类别 | 总市值 | 流通市 | 市盈率 | 市净率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | (亿元) | 值(亿元) | PE | PB | | 上证指数 | 642568 | 502140 | 11.78 | 1.22 | | 深证成指 | 215145 | 182314 | 19.80 | 2.09 | | 创业板指 | 56534 | 44740 | 26.34 | 3.66 | | 科创 50 | 34758 | 22722 | 55.31 | 4.19 | | 北 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The report from CITIC Securities highlights the importance of boosting consumption as a key driver for economic growth, with the food and beverage sector expected to benefit significantly from this focus on domestic demand [1] - The white liquor sector is projected to achieve total revenue of 441.94 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.66%, with net profit expected to reach 166.85 billion yuan, also up 7.60% [1] - The beer segment is showing signs of recovery, with sales and profit margins improving, indicating that it may have entered a growth phase [19] Group 2: Sector Analysis - **White Liquor**: The industry is currently facing a deep adjustment period, with sales pressures due to weak demand in gifting and banquet consumption, but leading companies are expected to strengthen their market positions through brand and operational advantages [1][6] - **Pre-processed Foods**: The sector is experiencing weak performance due to sluggish B-end restaurant demand, but is expected to benefit from a recovery in the C-end market, particularly in pre-prepared dishes [17] - **Dairy Products**: The dairy sector's revenue for 2024 is projected at 292.5 billion yuan, down 7.7% year-on-year, with net profit declining by 38.5% to 12.92 billion yuan [21][22] - **Snack Foods**: The sector is thriving, particularly with the popularity of konjac products, and companies are adapting to new retail formats like discount stores [24] - **Soft Drinks**: The functional beverage market continues to expand, with a notable increase in demand for sugar-free tea and functional drinks [26] - **Yellow Wine**: Leading companies in the yellow wine sector are expanding their advantages and driving the industry's high-end development [30]

促进乡村产业融合发展，靠山吃山、靠水吃水能够事半功倍，有效拓展产业的增值、增效空间。这其 中，因地制宜是基础。其他地方的发展路径可以借鉴参考，但无法照抄照搬，没有所有村都适用的经典 模式。敢闯敢试是关键。方向是摸索出来的，路径是走出来的，勇于迈出第一步，才能将想象空间变为 现实图景。扬长避短是优选。有些地方位置偏僻、山水条件一般，也未必都要随大流发展旅游产业，努 力确保污染少、管理好，大力发展有机农业、社区工厂等，也可以实现增收致富。 随着社会需求的不断变化，持续推进产业形态升级，既是理所当然，也是势在必行。一些村庄利用靠近 城市、交通便利的优势，前些年发展参观、采摘等一日游活动，不过随着市民游客出现审美疲劳且可选 择范围增多，如今有些项目逐渐失去竞争力，游客数量和消费金额增长后劲乏力。因此，需要不断创新 求变，聚焦"吃住行游购娱"全链条提升服务品质，精准分析目标群体心理和消费趋势，通过"非遗+""文 化+""美食+""体育+"等探索融合发展路径，保持特色产业的生机与活力。 一户致富不算富，百家都富才是富。促进共同富裕，是乡村产业融合发展、培育新产业新业态的初心。 聚焦"乡愁经济"持续丰富新产业新业态，单打独 ...

Core Viewpoint - China is accelerating the construction of a new development pattern, gradually forming a "consumer society" model that is shared by all, emphasizing consumer-driven growth through continuous consumption upgrades [1][8]. Group 1: Consumer Demand and Supply - Consumer demand is inherently linked to individual choices and purchasing power, which is related to sustainable income levels. Short-term stimulus policies may temporarily improve purchasing power but do not lead to lasting improvements [2][3]. - The shift in consumption structure indicates that residents are moving from a focus on goods to a balanced consumption of goods and services, with service consumption projected to reach 46.1% of per capita consumption expenditure by 2024 [4][8]. Group 2: Government Role and Economic Policy - The government can enhance consumer choice by improving the institutional environment and optimizing the supply of goods and services. Employment-focused macro policies can stabilize income and expectations, which are crucial for consumer confidence [3][5]. - Economic policies should shift towards supply-side strategies, reducing macro tax burdens and investing more resources in human capital to stabilize consumption and achieve consumption upgrades [3][6]. Group 3: Investment in Human Capital - Social investment is essential for enhancing human capital, which is increasingly important as China transitions to a high-quality development phase. Investment in education, healthcare, and community services will be vital for fostering new consumption patterns [7][8]. - The focus on improving labor quality through continuous training and education will help expand the middle-income group, laying the foundation for a consumption-driven society [7][8].

IPO Dynamics - Green Tea Group Limited has initiated its IPO process, set to end on May 13, 2025, with plans to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange under the stock code "6831" on May 16, 2025 [3] - The company plans to issue a total of 168,364,000 shares, with 16,836,400 shares available for public offering in Hong Kong and 151,527,600 shares for international offering [3] - Green Tea Group ranks third in the number of restaurants and fourth in revenue among casual Chinese restaurant brands in mainland China, indicating its market scale and strength for an IPO [3] Acquisition Dynamics - The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) has begun an informal assessment of Lactalis' proposal to acquire assets from Fonterra, with Rothschild acting as an advisor for Lactalis [5] - The ACCC is seeking public feedback on the acquisition, highlighting potential overlaps in raw milk procurement, dairy processing, and supply to food service businesses [5] - The acquisition could impact consumers and the market, as Lactalis may leverage its global network to enhance the visibility of Mainland Group's brands [5] Brand Dynamics - A Bathing Ape (Bape) has collaborated with singer JJ Lin to launch a limited edition series, coinciding with his concert tour [7] - The collection features three items designed in JJ Lin's favorite purple color, including a notable Bape Sta Color Camo Purple sneaker [7] - This collaboration is expected to create a new wave of demand due to the combination of Bape's streetwear appeal and JJ Lin's celebrity influence [7] Financial Data - Puma reported a 63.7% decline in EBIT for Q1 2025, dropping from €159 million to €57.7 million, with sales slightly increasing by 0.1% to €2.07 billion [22] - Sales in the Europe, Middle East, and Africa region grew by 5.1% to €891.7 million, while the Americas saw a 2.7% decline to €753.7 million, primarily due to poor performance in North America [22] - The Asia-Pacific region experienced a 4.7% sales decline to €430.5 million, with ongoing weakness in the Greater China market being a significant factor [22] - Pandora achieved a 7% organic sales growth in Q1 2025, with total sales reaching 7.35 billion Danish Krone, driven by an 18% increase in online sales [25] - The company maintains its forecast for 2025, expecting organic growth between 7% and 8%, with notable growth in the U.S. market at 11% [25] - European sales grew by 4%, with strong performances in mature markets like Spain and Portugal [25] Personnel Dynamics - Tory Burch has announced three management appointments, with Thibault Vilet becoming the new President for Asia-Pacific, Japan, Europe, and the Middle East [29] - Paolo Zullo has been appointed as the President for Europe and the Middle East, effective July 2025, overseeing retail, e-commerce, and distribution in the region [29] - Joshua Chen will join the brand, with Vilet continuing to report to CEO Pierre-Yves Roussel [29]

来源丨凤凰网财经 " 哪怕我吃到过苍蝇，都不会这么气愤，这是人血呀 " ，近日，有消费者连发两条视频，表示在来伊份门店 购买粽子，给宝宝喂食到一半时，吃出了带血的创口贴 ， 引发热议 。 在其拍摄的视频中，装粽子的 碗中 出现了疑似创可贴的异物。根据曝光的粽子包装，涉事产品为来伊份蜜 枣粽，在一则相关视频下，有疑似为该消费者的账号留言表示，自己最初拍摄的视频已经被强制下架， " 现在就想要个说法 " 。 作为 " 休闲零食第一股 " ，来伊份于 1999 年在上海成立， 2016 年上市，主要通过委托生产的方式在全 渠道销售自主品牌休闲零食。截至 5 月 9 日，其股价为 13.24 元 / 股，跌幅 2% ，总市值 44.28 亿元。 值得注意的是，这一事件 " 粽子大王 " 五芳斋也卷入其中，这为即将到来的端午节粽子商品的消费，埋下 阴影。 01 涉事粽子，五芳斋为其代工？ 大品牌的品控也让人失望，尽管消费者已经有了一颗强心脏，但出现带血的创口贴，依旧能让人破防。 南方都市报报道中提到，该消费者在评论区表示，该产品生产工厂与五芳斋是同一家。 | 营养成分表 | | C | | --- | --- | -- ...