目前来看，全年经济增速完成 5%左右的目标可能性较高。下半年出于增长 目标而出台增量政策的必要性和力度在下降。但另一方面，今年以来价格水 平继续承压，持续的价格负增长影响了国民经济的正常循环。因此，我们认 为下半年的宏观政策将着力治理价格问题，主要手段可能跟传统的宏观经济 调控政策有别。若成效显著，这将改变当前资产价格的定价逻辑，对市场走 势造成重大影响。 电话会议纪要（20250713） 研究部/总量研究 【宏观】反内卷不仅仅去产能；【策略】港股 IPO 的抽水效应如何；【固收】 科创债 ETF 启航；【银行】如何评估银行资产质量；【非银】牛市旗手券商 有望起飞；【地产】板块观点重申：主要房企估值或已进入投资区间；【基金 评价】美国主动基金业绩比较基准研究 q 【宏观 张一平】反内卷不仅仅去产能 证券研究报告| 行业定期报告 2025 年 07 月 18 日 招商证券丨总量的视野 推荐（维持） 相关报告 1、《电话会议纪要—招商证券总量 的视野》2025-07-04 2、《招商证券总量的视野电话会议 纪要（20250622）》2025-06-24 当前价格问题与企业间和企业内部内卷式竞争有明确的关系，内卷从 ...

近日，李亚鹏持股公司被强执102万，引发关注。 7月18日，据封面新闻，记者致电丽江雪山投资有限责任公司，对方回应称："这是公司内部的事情，公司也一直在积极运营，且很多地产开发商都会面临 这样的情况。" 据悉，该公司并非首次陷入执行风波。早在5月27日，天眼查显示该公司新增3条被执行人信息，被执行总金额约244万元。 李亚鹏，毕业于中央戏剧学院表演系，中国内地男演员、商人。其代表作品有《将爱情进行到底》《笑傲江湖》《反恐行动》《末代皇妃》等。 2014年，李亚鹏宣布退出娱乐圈。 2003年，李亚鹏与王菲两人恋情曝光。2005年7月28日，李亚鹏与王菲两人在乌鲁木齐民政局正式领证。次年，两人的女儿李嫣出生。2013年9月13日，王 菲在微博发文表示与李亚鹏夫妻缘已尽。 2020年年末，49岁的李亚鹏公开与比自己小19岁的女友海哈金喜在一起的恋情。2022年3月14日，李亚鹏与现任妻子海哈金喜的孩子出生。 回顾李亚鹏的商业发展历程，可谓波折不断。他曾坦言"我最大的错误，是情怀远大于能力"，而其投资历程也印证了这一点。 1998年，李亚鹏投入50万美元打造婚庆网站，最终血本无归；2005年开办影视公司，亏损金额足以 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent appointment of Qi Zhanfeng as the chairman of Beijing Urban Construction Development marks a significant leadership change in a major state-owned enterprise in Beijing, indicating a focus on cash flow and profit contributions in the future [2][4][18]. Group 1: Leadership Change - Qi Zhanfeng has been appointed as the chairman of Beijing Urban Construction Development, succeeding Chu Zhaowu, who retired recently [2][3]. - Qi Zhanfeng has a strong background in finance, having held various financial roles in state-owned enterprises in Beijing, which suggests a strategic emphasis on financial management in his new role [4][6]. - The leadership team will consist of Qi Zhanfeng as chairman and Zou Zhe as general manager, indicating a stable yet dynamic management structure [9]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Beijing Urban Construction Development reported a projected net profit of approximately 439 million to 654 million yuan for the first half of the year, a significant turnaround from a loss of 138 million yuan in the same period last year [4][13]. - The profit increase is attributed to the successful sales and delivery of key projects, such as Tiantanfu and Longyue Tianyuan, as well as gains from financial asset investments [14][15]. Group 3: Strategic Focus - The company is prioritizing three key areas: inventory reduction, profit and cash flow management, and the expansion of quality projects [10][18]. - The company has a substantial inventory pressure outside Beijing, with significant unsold areas in locations like Anhui Huangshan and Chongqing [12]. - In 2024, the company secured eight new projects, indicating a cautious yet strategic approach to project acquisition [17][19]. Group 4: Market Position - Beijing Urban Construction Development ranked fifth in total sales in Beijing for the first half of the year, solidifying its position as a leading local real estate company [10]. - The company is actively expanding beyond its traditional market, having successfully entered the Shanghai market with multiple projects [19][21].

AI基金中泰红利优选一年持有混合发起（014771）披露2025年二季报，第二季度基金利润5457.92万元，加权平均基金份额本期利润0.0865元。报告期内， 基金净值增长率为6.28%，截至二季度末，基金规模为9.26亿元。 该基金属于偏股混合型基金。截至7月17日，单位净值为1.503元。基金经理是姜诚和王桃，目前共同管理2只基金近一年均为正收益。其中，截至7月17日， 中泰红利优选一年持有混合发起近一年复权单位净值增长率最高，达23.67%；中泰红利价值一年持有混合发起最低，为22.12%。 基金管理人在二季报中表示，二季度我们持仓品种变化不大，但整体仓位略有下降，这是我们评估再投资风险和机会成本之后的决策。随着部分红利品种股 价上涨，组合总体内部收益率有所下降，我们依据内部收益率变化做了仓位和标的间的调整。 截至7月17日，中泰红利优选一年持有混合发起近三个月复权单位净值增长率为9.68%，位于同类可比基金137/256；近半年复权单位净值增长率为13.10%， 位于同类可比基金74/256；近一年复权单位净值增长率为23.67%，位于同类可比基金90/256；近三年复权单位净值增长率为54.87% ...

Group 1: Strategy Overview - The overall growth in Q2 2025 still faces bottlenecks, but the performance improvement in emerging technologies and certain cyclical sectors is becoming clearer [2][11] - The pre-announcement of mid-year reports shows a pre-joy rate of 43.7% among 1,531 disclosed companies, lower than the past three years [11][12] - The cumulative profit growth for the entire A-share market and non-financial A-shares in the first half of the year is estimated at 1.0% and 1.2% respectively [11][12] Group 2: Industry Insights - Traditional economic sectors are improving slowly, with industrial enterprises experiencing a decline in accounts receivable turnover [3][12] - Emerging technologies are the main area for growth expectations, particularly in globally competitive industries [4][13] - Certain cyclical products, such as rare earths and small metals, are seeing price increases, while sectors like steel and construction materials are showing signs of performance improvement [4][13] Group 3: Company Focus - Guangxun Technology - Guangxun Technology's mid-year performance is expected to show a net profit of 3.23 to 4.07 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 55.00% to 95.00% [6][25] - The company has completed its stock incentive plan, which is expected to motivate employees and enhance future performance growth [7][25] - The target price for Guangxun Technology is maintained at 69.70 yuan, with a current price of 49.31 yuan, indicating a potential upside [25][26]

香港开发商英皇国际修改债务重组计划，寻求延长贷款期限。 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the performance of real estate companies in Shanghai for the first half of 2025, showcasing significant sales growth compared to the previous year [9][10]. Sales Performance - The total sales amount of the top 20 real estate companies in Shanghai reached 256.06 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 35% compared to the first half of 2024 [9]. - Twelve companies surpassed 10 billion yuan in sales, with Poly Developments, China Resources Land, and China Merchants Shekou leading the rankings, each exceeding 24 billion yuan [9][10]. - The total sales area for the top 20 companies was 2.996 million square meters, up about 10% year-on-year [9]. Company Highlights - Poly Developments topped the sales rankings due to its strong land reserves and product offerings, successfully launching several high-demand projects in key areas like Yangpu [9][10]. - China Resources Land combined area operation experience with TOD development practices, achieving significant sales in the Baoshan district [10]. - China Jinmao entered the top 15 in sales amount and ranked 8th in sales area, with its "Jin Yu Man Tang" product line gaining traction [10]. - Yuexiu Property's rapid rise is attributed to its focus on high-end improvement demands, successfully launching over 10 premium projects in core urban areas [10]. Market Trends - The Shanghai real estate market in the first half of 2025 exhibited characteristics of "volume decline and price increase" with a notable contraction in both supply and demand [11]. - The supply area of commodity residential properties decreased by 37% year-on-year, while transaction area fell by 8.4%, although the decline was less severe than the national average [11]. - The average transaction price for new homes reached 80,668 yuan per square meter, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.35% [11]. Project Performance - In June 2025, 155 openings were recorded across 103 projects, with an average absorption rate of nearly 50% [11]. - Notably, 15 projects had a subscription rate exceeding 100%, with five projects surpassing 200%, indicating strong market recognition for high-quality offerings [14]. - The top-performing project, Fei Huan Yue Fu, achieved a remarkable subscription rate of 288% [14].

总体而言，由于去年同期土地市场成交不景气，房企拿地信心不足，导致土地成交规模基数较低。同时，经过去年的土地供需调整，今年各地涉宅用地出 让主要以"好房子"为导向，土地供应倾向于核心区域、优质且低密的宅地，从而提升了房企的拿地信心。因此，上半年多个热点城市"地王"记录屡次刷 新，推动了涉宅用地热度的显著回升。 一、全国重点65城土地市场表现情况 1、重点65城涉宅用地成交规模止跌回升，同比上涨18.4% 2025年上半年，伴随房价下行趋势放缓，土地市场供需活跃度小幅回升。全国重点65城土地成交规模呈现止跌企稳的趋势。尤其，涉宅用地成交规模止跌 回升，部分热点城市表现较好。根据安居客监测数据显示，上半年全国重点65城总计成交经营性土地3564宗，累计成交规划建面23406.6万平方米，规模 同比下降9.4%，跌幅显著小于去年同期。同时，涉宅用地累计成交826宗，累计成交规划建面5965.6万平方米，规模同比上涨18.4%，对比去年同期实现 止跌回升。 2、涉宅出让金规模同比上涨45%，一二线城市涉宅成交楼面价同比上涨 2025年上半年，全国重点65城经营性土地出让金累计约7595.8亿元；其中，涉宅用地出让金达到 ...

融创中国的境外债重组聆讯将在9月15日召开，届时将寻求香港高等法院的指令以召开计划会议，以便债权人考虑及酌情批准计划（无论有否修订）。 孙宏斌资料图。 孙宏斌背水一战，融创债务重组攻坚 王琳 融创中国与其创始人孙宏斌，正在等待其第二次境外债务重组方案的最终落地。这家曾经的地产巨头，在行业深度调整中持续寻求风险化解之道。 根据6月24日融创中国披露的最新公告显示，于本公告日期，整体而言现有债务未偿还本金总额约75%的持有人已加入重组支持协议。这一比例较5月底披 露的约64%有了显著提升，显示了全额债转股的重组方案正获得越来越多债权人的同意。 与此同时，融创中国7月4日发布公告，宣布公司将配发及发行7.54亿股新股，用于偿付约56亿元选择"股票选项"的境内债券。这也标志着融创的境内债务 重组进入实质性操作阶段。 或许是基于债务重组的利好进展，在6月30日举行的融创股东周年会上，孙宏斌自债务危机后首次亲临现场，当被投资者问及"最困难的时候是否已经过 去"时，孙宏斌回答"肯定的"。 不过，现实的困境仍在提醒风险未消：位于北京的融创总部办公楼两间物业将在8月1日被拍卖，与此同时，仅今年7月以来，融创房地产集团有限公司已 ...

7月15日，昆明市自规局发布了西山区前卫1单元XS-QW-F-03-01地块控制性详细规划批后公示，如果云南房网没有猜错，这块地将很 快会上架拍卖。不久前竞买官渡古镇40亩宅地意外失利的邦泰地产，很可能会再度出手，参与这宗50.1亩的住宅用地的拍卖。 西山区前卫1单元XS-QW-F-03-01地块 半个月前邦泰为了争夺官渡古镇地块，不惜和云南建投旗下公司大战十多个回合，虽然最终遗憾落败，但邦泰继续拿地的决心已表露 无疑，相信XS-QW-F-03-01地块在4月份调规后，邦泰就已经开始密切关注，如果在官渡古镇抢地成功，邦泰倒是未必出手前兴路西 侧的这块宅地，但官渡古镇意外失利，反倒提高了邦泰拿下前兴路地块的可能性。 关于XS-QW-F-03-01地块的来龙去脉，云南房网在这篇文章《土地卖不掉怎么办？西山区放大招：商业全砍掉，容积率降一半》已经 有详细分析，感兴趣的可以点击查看。 简单来说，位于前兴路西侧、大商汇对面的这宗住宅用地原来本来是恒泰城的商住混合用地，今年4月被调整为住宅用地，还曾出现 在今年西山区土地推介的名单上，说明西山区出让该地块的意愿很强烈。 从各方面看，XS-QW-F-03-01地块都和7月初 ...