轻工制造 2025 年 05 月 12 日 行 业 研 究 轻工制造 中美贸易冲突暂缓，布局优质低估出口 投资要点： 风险提示：全球贸易政策风险、原材料价格大幅上涨风险。 强于大市（维持评级） 一年内行业相对大盘走势 团队成员 分析师： 李宏鹏(S0210524050017) lhp30568@hfzq.com.cn 分析师： 李含稚(S0210524060005) lhz30597@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 1、轻工纺服行业周报：4 月出口仍显韧性，Q1 全球 AI 眼镜倍增——2025.05.11 2、轻工纺服行业周报：一季报家居营收环比改善， 个护景气延续——2025.05.05 3、轻工纺服行业周报：菲莫 Q1 无烟产品贡献显 著，个护龙头势能向上——2025.04.27 诚信专业 发现价值 2 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 诚信专业 发现价值 1 请务必阅读报告末页的声明 华福证券 行 业 动 态 跟 踪 中美贸易谈判达成阶段性进展，美国对我国增量关税降至 30%。5 月 12 日中美发表贸易会谈声明，本次中美经贸高层会谈取得实质 性进展，大幅降低双边关税水平，双方承诺将于 2025 年 5 ...

Economic Performance - Zhejiang Province reported a GDP growth rate of 6.0% in the first quarter, exceeding expectations and demonstrating resilience amid uncertainties from the "tariff war" with the U.S. [1] - The province's import and export volume increased by 7.3% year-on-year, contributing 66.4% to the national growth, with exports rising by 11.1% [1][2] Domestic Demand - Domestic demand is recovering, serving as a necessary counterbalance to external risks and aligning with the goal of building a "dual circulation" development pattern [2] - Consumer spending has shown signs of recovery, with per capita tourism spending during the Spring Festival reaching 1455 yuan, the highest in recent years [2] - The film box office and ticket sales during the Spring Festival increased by 45.3% and 40.5% year-on-year, indicating a resurgence in social consumption [2] - Project investment grew by 11.5% in the first quarter, with nearly 70% of new projects from the 1364 major projects initiated [2] Innovation and Technology - The potential for innovation is a key factor in economic resilience, with high-tech manufacturing investment growing by 12.1% in the first quarter [3] - Investment in manufacturing technology upgrades and equipment purchases increased by 15.9% and 9.2%, respectively [3] External Environment - The external economic environment remains complex, with the IMF projecting global economic growth at 2.8% and trade growth at 1.7% for 2025, both down from previous forecasts [3] - The "tariff war" is expected to persist, necessitating strategic responses to mitigate risks and stabilize economic growth [3] Policy Recommendations - Emphasis on stabilizing enterprises and exports through personalized support policies and increased financial assistance for foreign trade companies [4] - Encouragement of domestic consumption and investment in public services and employment to stimulate economic activity [4] - Focus on promoting new consumption trends and enhancing logistics infrastructure to support retail [4] Long-term Strategy - The strategy includes advancing technological innovation and fostering a self-reliant economy through initiatives like the "Artificial Intelligence+" action plan [5] - High-level openness is prioritized, with plans to leverage free trade zones and pilot cities to align with international trade standards [5]

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·商贸零售 商贸零售行业跟踪周报 证券分析师 石旖瑄 执业证书：S0600522040001 shiyx@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 张家璇 执业证书：S0600520120002 4 月我国出口额超预期，关注非美出口核心 标的小商品城 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] 2025 年 05 月 12 日 证券分析师 吴劲草 执业证书：S0600520090006 wujc@dwzq.com.cn zhangjx@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 阳靖 执业证书：S0600523020005 yangjing@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 郗越 执业证书：S0600524080008 xiy@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 王琳婧 执业证书：S0600123070017 wanglj@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -18% -12% -6% 0% 6% 12% 18% 24% 30% 36% 42% 5/13/2024 9/10/2024 1/8/2025 5/8/2025 商贸零售 沪深300 相关研究 《酒店集团业 ...

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·商贸零售 商贸零售行业跟踪周报 4 月我国出口额超预期，关注非美出口核心 标的小商品城 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] 2025 年 05 月 12 日 证券分析师 吴劲草 执业证书：S0600520090006 wujc@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 石旖瑄 执业证书：S0600522040001 shiyx@dwzq.com.cn 执业证书：S0600520120002 zhangjx@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 阳靖 执业证书：S0600523020005 yangjing@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 郗越 执业证书：S0600524080008 xiy@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 王琳婧 执业证书：S0600123070017 wanglj@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -18% -12% -6% 0% 6% 12% 18% 24% 30% 36% 42% 5/13/2024 9/10/2024 1/8/2025 5/8/2025 商贸零售 沪深300 相关研究 《酒店集团业绩显著复苏，24 年 ...

Group 1 - In the first quarter of this year, Shenzhen's four special customs supervision zones achieved a foreign trade import and export value of 241.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.4%, accounting for 24.4% of the city's total foreign trade value [1] - The Qianhai and Pingshan comprehensive bonded zones showed significant growth in import and export, with year-on-year increases of 50% and 45.6% respectively [1] - Shenzhen Customs is promoting the high-quality development of cross-border e-commerce bonded models by providing services such as "appointment customs clearance," "overtime document review," and "delayed gate closure" [1] Group 2 - The first cultural and artistic product bonded exhibition in Qianhai was successfully held, showcasing the support from Shenzhen Customs in facilitating the process for enterprises [2] - Meisha Customs has established a special team to provide tailored "one-stop" services for automobile export businesses, ensuring smooth customs procedures [2] - Pingshan Customs is offering customized policy service packages to leading electronic component manufacturers, helping them reduce operational costs by 20% and shorten delivery times by 60% [2] Group 3 - Special supervision zones play a crucial role in expanding foreign trade, attracting foreign investment, and promoting industrial transformation and upgrading [3] - Shenzhen Customs plans to deepen reform and innovation in special supervision zones to enhance the level of institutional openness and create a competitive open economy [3]

近年来，我国积极构建多元化市场，深化与各方的产业链供应链合作。同时，中国内需市场广阔，是重 要的大后方。 作为自美国发起"对等关税"以来的首份中国外贸成绩单，4月份我国的进出口数据备受市场关注。 海关总署于5月9日发布的数据显示，2025年前4个月，我国货物贸易进出口总值14.14万亿元人民币，同 比（下同）增长2.4%。其中，出口8.39万亿元，增长7.5%；进口5.75万亿元，下降4.2%。 以美元计价，4月份我国货物贸易出口额同比增长8.1%。其中，4月对美出口下降21%，增速较上个月低 30.1个百分点。而与之对应的，对非美地区出口同比增长13%，其中，对东盟增长20.8%。 这份外贸成绩单，凸显出中国制造的韧性和趋势变化。东方金诚宏观研究发展部执行总监冯琳认为，4 月我国出口同比增速回落，主要缘于关税战冲击下，当月对美出口大幅下降。而上年同期高基数也有一 定下拉作用。不过，她表示，4月出口仍然保持较高正增长，超出市场预期。这主要归结于三个原因： 一是4月我国对美国之外的其他市场存在"抢出口"现象；二是外需仍有一定韧性；三是4月中美超高关税 主要在中下旬执行，且存在部分商品豁免，对整体出口的冲击作用受 ...

Group 1: CPI Trends - In April, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) shifted from a decrease of 0.4% in March to an increase of 0.1% month-on-month, while year-on-year it decreased by 0.1% [1] - The core CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.5% year-on-year, indicating resilience despite the overall CPI decline [1][4] - Food prices rose by 0.2% month-on-month, contributing to the CPI increase, alongside significant rises in travel service prices, such as a 13.5% increase in airfare [4] Group 2: PPI Trends - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and year-on-year, with the decline attributed to both international and domestic factors, including seasonal drops in energy prices [5] - Some industrial sectors are showing positive signals, with demand in high-tech industries increasing and leading to price recoveries in certain areas, such as home appliances and new energy vehicles [7] Group 3: Policy Implications - Analysts expect that the government's macroeconomic policies aimed at boosting consumption will support demand and potentially lead to structural positive changes in the PPI [8] - There is an emphasis on the need for the government to expedite the implementation of existing policies, particularly in technology, consumption, and foreign trade, to stimulate domestic demand and support core CPI trends [4]

华福证券 轻工制造 2025 年 05 月 11 日 轻工制造 4 月出口仍显韧性，Q1 全球 AI 眼镜倍增 投资要点： 【周观点】4 月我国整体出口保持韧性，对美出口开始下滑但转出口效应 明显；25Q1 全球 AI 智能眼镜销量 60 万台，同比增长达 216%，关注智能 眼镜后续新品上市进展催化；持续推荐新消费景气个护和潮玩赛道，布鲁 可 5 月上新名侦探柯南奇迹版梦游童话、英雄无限法相悟空 2.0、变形金刚 传奇版声波、变形金刚星辰版第三弹，IP 矩阵丰富持续扩圈。 强于大市（维持评级） 一年内行业相对大盘走势 -0.30 -0.20 -0.10 0.00 0.10 0.20 5/13 7/24 10/4 12/15 2/25 5/8 轻工制造 沪深300 团队成员 | 分析师： | 李宏鹏(S0210524050017) | | --- | --- | | lhp30568@hfzq.com.cn | | | 分析师： | 汪浚哲(S0210524050024) | | wjz30579@hfzq.com.cn | | | 分析师： | 李含稚(S0210524060005) | | lhz3059 ...

中国商报（记者 马文博 文/图）近期，多项与民营企业相关的数据陆续发布，多维度展现出我国民营经济发展的活力。在这背后是一系列具有精准性和针对 性的扶持政策、各地各部门的同心协力以及民营企业强大的韧性。 市场监管总局近日公布的数据显示，今年第一季度，全国新设民营企业197.9万户，同比增长7.1%，超过过去3年平均增速。截至今年3月底，我国登记在册 的民营企业超过5700万户，占企业总量的92.3%。 民营企业作为科技创新的重要主体，贡献了全社会70%的技术创新成果。第一季度，新一代信息技术产业新设民营企业9.4万户、高端装备制造业新设4.6万 户、人工智能软件研发类新设25.4万户、银发经济类新设超过1万户，民营企业在民用航空、量子信息、人形机器人等领域展现出充沛活力。 在对外贸易方面，第一季度，民营企业进出口额同比增长5.8%，占进出口总额的比重提升到56.8%，比上年同期提高2.4个百分点。同时，民营企业进出口高 技术产品创历史同期新高，规模接近1万亿元。 从市场来看，民营企业对全球近180个国家和地区的进出口都实现了增长。在新兴市场，对东盟、非洲、拉美进出口分别增长7.4%、9.6%、5.2%；在传统市 ...

4月中国出口（以美元计价）同比增长8.1%，表现出明显的"抢转口"特征。 抢转口、抢出海下，出口压力在6月之后。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人孙永乐 随着在途商品豁免期结束，在高额关税下，中国对美直接贸易快速下滑。 4月对美出口同比增速从9.1%快速下滑至-21%，拖累中国出口增速3个百分 点。预计5月中国对美出口将进一步回落。 4月中国对非美出口增速显著上行。 4月中国对东盟出口增长20.8%，前值11.6%，拉动中国出口增速3.6个百分点。4月中国对越南出口增长23%，越 南对美国出口增长34%，越南对中国的进口额和对美国的出口额均创下2020年以来的新高，中国借道越南转口可能明显上升。 按照美国豁免清单9903.01.25，在美东时间4月9日凌晨12时之前装船运输的商品可以申请10%的附加关税，而不用面临对等关税，在这样的情况下， 部分对美直接出口商品在4月初加速出货。 除越南外，4月中国对 非洲、德国、印度、拉丁美洲、中国台湾省 等地区的出口增速均维持两位数以上高增。对德国、荷兰、澳大利亚出口增速比3月上 升了8.8、8、10.3个百分点。 4月已公布重点商品中，出口增速最高的是中间品和资本品， 分别为 ...