2025年06月15日 国泰君安期货研究周报 观点与策略 | 镍：矿端担忧有所降温，冶炼供应弹性饱满 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：负反馈传导减产增加，供需双弱低位震荡 | 2 | | 工业硅：上游继续复产，空配思路为主 | 11 | | 多晶硅：关注下周仓单注册信息，反弹后空配 | 11 | | 碳酸锂：矿价企稳，产量回升，偏弱震荡，建议反套 | 20 | | 全国碳市场：CEA大幅反弹，CCER活跃度攀升 | 29 | | 棕榈油：美国生柴政策利好，带动油脂上行 | 33 | | 豆油：压榨恢复较好，国内油脂弱于国际 | 33 | | 豆粕：生柴政策利多美豆，偏强震荡 | 38 | | 豆一：豆类市场氛围偏多，偏强震荡 | 38 | | 玉米：高位震荡 | 44 | | 白糖：低位整理 | 50 | | 棉花：商业库存下降快支撑棉价 | 57 | | 生猪：降重路径改变，等待现货印证 | 64 | | 花生：震荡行情 | 70 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 二 〇 二 五 年 度 1）中国精炼社会库存减少 92 ...

政策效应逐步减弱，地产销售正在降温 国内物价压力持续 5 月汽车销售呈现 " 量价分化 " 建筑工地资金到位率有所好转 随着去年"924"政策效应逐渐减弱，地产销售出现明显程度下滑。 1）商品房： 6月第一周，30大中城市商品房总成交面积为20.6万平方米，同比下降17.2%，一线、二线城市下滑显著。 2）二手房： 6月第一周，11个样本城市二手房日均销售面积为19.0万平方米，前值为25.6万平方米，但二手房成交占比有所回升。 01 政策效应减弱，国内地产销售降温 本期Headline 02 关于本栏目 高频数据难懂？挖掘信息不易？【国金高频图鉴】每周一期，与您一同从高频数据库中抽丝剥茧，看懂全球经济的新变化。如需底层数据库，欢迎联系国金宏观团 队。 | | 2024-12 | 2025-01 | 2025-02 | 2025-03 | 2025-04 | 2025-05 | 相比前期变 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | 五川 | | CPI同比 | 0 .1 | 0 5 | -0 .7 | -0.1 | ...

Group 1 - Baogang Group successfully completed the supply of 98,000 tons of U71Mn high-speed rails for the Baoyin High-speed Railway project in Inner Mongolia, marking a significant achievement for the company [2][3] - The company has established a comprehensive research and development system for rare earth steel, leveraging the unique properties of rare earth elements to enhance steel performance, resulting in a production capacity of 66 varieties and nearly 300 grades of rare earth steel [5][8] - Baogang's rare earth steel products are widely used in key sectors such as high-speed and heavy-haul railways, new energy wind power, lightweight vehicles, coal mining machinery, and oil extraction, contributing to the company's strong brand value in the steel industry [8] Group 2 - The company has implemented a "Rare Earth +" strategy, focusing on product variety, quality improvement, and brand creation, which has been validated in national major projects [5][8] - Baogang Group's new rare earth welding wire steel products have been successfully supplied to leading domestic welding material companies, showcasing the company's advancements in high-performance welding materials [8] - The brand "Baogang Rare Earth Steel" has consistently ranked among the top 500 Chinese brand values, highlighting its reputation and market recognition in the steel industry [8]

昨夜全球市场突遭重挫，黑天鹅再度突袭。 美股方面，道琼斯指数重挫近800点，跌幅高达1.79%，创下近五周最大单日跌幅；标普500和纳斯达克分别下跌1.13%和1.30%。 这次突如其来的市场动荡，主要导火索指向中东局势的突然升级。受此影响，黄金与原油等避险资产飙升。 01 | | 中概股 明星股 涨幅榜 跌幅榜 换手率 成交割:三 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 最新价 ◆ | 涨跌幅 ◆ | 市盈率 ◆ | | 阿里巴巴 | 112.87 | -3.22% | 14.86 | | US BABA | | | | | 拼多多 | 100.58 | -2.76% | 10.34 | | us PDD | | | | | 网易 | 129.38 | -2.55% | 18.18 | | US NTES | | | | | 中石化 | 45.66 | | 5.26 | | us SNP | | | | | 京东 | 32.76 | -2.53% | 7.52 | | us JD | | | | | 携程 | 59.98 | -1.54% | 16.53 | | us ...

Core Viewpoint - The monitoring of market prices for 50 important production materials across nine categories shows a mixed trend, with 11 products experiencing price increases, 35 seeing declines, and 4 remaining stable in early June 2025 compared to late May 2025 [2]. Group 1: Price Changes in Major Categories - In the black metal category, prices for rebar, wire rod, and ordinary plates decreased by 1.0% to 1.7%, with rebar priced at 3111.1 yuan per ton [4]. - In the non-ferrous metal category, electrolytic copper saw a price increase of 0.4% to 78731.7 yuan per ton, while aluminum ingots decreased by 0.6% to 20203.3 yuan per ton [4]. - Chemical products experienced varied changes, with sulfuric acid increasing by 2.3% to 635.8 yuan per ton, while methanol decreased by 2.5% to 2137.0 yuan per ton [4]. Group 2: Energy and Coal Prices - In the petroleum and natural gas sector, liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices fell by 1.1% to 4264.2 yuan per ton, while gasoline prices increased by 1.1% to 8372.1 yuan per ton [4]. - Coal prices showed a decline, with anthracite coal dropping by 3.6% to 914.8 yuan per ton and coke decreasing by 5.6% to 1181.4 yuan per ton [4]. Group 3: Agricultural Products and Inputs - Among agricultural products, rice prices increased slightly by 0.2% to 4036.8 yuan per ton, while wheat prices decreased by 0.6% to 2415.3 yuan per ton [5]. - Fertilizer prices also saw a decline, with urea dropping by 1.4% to 1864.3 yuan per ton [5]. Group 4: Monitoring Methodology - The price monitoring includes data from over 2000 wholesalers, agents, and distributors across more than 300 trading markets in 31 provinces [7]. - The methodology involves various data collection techniques, including on-site price collection and electronic inquiries [8].

Core Viewpoint - A significant explosion occurred at a nylon production facility in Gongdian Town, Yexian County, Pingdingshan City, Henan Province, resulting in one death and three injuries, highlighting the inherent risks associated with nylon production processes [1][2][4]. Industry Risks - Nylon production involves high-temperature and high-pressure reactions, as well as hazardous chemicals like caprolactam and liquid ammonia, which can easily lead to explosions if equipment fails or operational errors occur [4][5]. - The production process includes several stages, each with specific risks, such as toxic hazards from raw materials, flammable solvents, and high-temperature reactions that can lead to leaks and explosions [5][6][7]. Safety Measures - Experts recommend that companies enhance equipment inspections and process parameter monitoring, especially during high-temperature conditions, to prevent accidents [4]. - The local emergency management bureau has initiated an investigation into the incident, ruling out human sabotage but emphasizing the need for technical assessments to determine the cause [4][5]. Specific Risks in Production - The risks associated with nylon production include: - Toxic hazards from monomers like caprolactam and hexamethylenediamine, which can cause respiratory irritation and severe health issues upon exposure [5][6]. - Flammability of solvents used in the process, which can lead to explosions if not properly managed [6]. - High-temperature and high-pressure leaks during polymerization, which can result in burns and fires [7]. - Risks of solvent poisoning and mechanical injuries during the spinning and post-processing stages [8][9]. - Equipment corrosion and electrical hazards that can lead to fires or explosions if not addressed [9][10]. Emergency Preparedness - The lack of proper emergency training for employees can exacerbate the consequences of accidents, underscoring the importance of effective safety protocols and training [10].

第 2 页 共 2 页 | 证券代码：000692 证券简称：惠天热电 公告编号：2025-39 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沈阳惠天热电股份有限公司 | | | | | | | | 关于 年年度报告更正公告 | | | | | | 2024 | | 本公司及董事会全体成员保证公告内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚假记载、误导 | | | | | | | | 性陈述或者重大遗漏。 | | | | | | | | 特别提示：本次更正只涉及报告全文文字表述，不涉及财务审计报告内容及审计意 | | | | | | | | 见的更正。 | | | | | | | | 本公司于2025年4月29日在巨潮资讯网（www.cninfo.com.cn）上披露了公司2024年 | | | | | | | | 年度报告全文。经事后审核发现《2024年年度报告》存在1处内容录入不准确，现就相 | | | | | | | | 关内容更正如下： | | | | | | | | 修订处"第三节 管理层讨论与分析 四、主营业务分析 2、收入与成本 | ...

证券代码：000692 证券简称：惠天热电 公告编号：2025-37 公司董事会于2025年6月13日召开了2025年第七次临时会议，同意将上述提案提交 公司2024年度股东会审议。 三、备查文件 沈阳惠天热电股份有限公司 特此公告。 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、 误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 一、提出临时提案的基本情况 董事会收到控股股东沈阳润电热力有限公司（以下简称"润电热力"）的《关于向惠天 热电2024年度股东会增加临时提案的提议函》，提议将《关于投资成立全胜热电全资子 公司的议案》提交公司将于2025年6月27日召开的2024年度股东会进行审议。临时提案 内容详见公司同日在《中国证券报》《证券时报》《上海证券报》和巨潮资讯网上的《关 于投资成立全胜热电全资子公司的公告》（公告编号：2025-36）。 二、提案人资格和提案时间合规性 根据《中华人民共和国公司法》《上市公司股东会规则》的规定：单独或合计持有 公司1%以上股份的股东，可以在股东会召开10日前提出临时提案并书面提交召集人。截 至本公告日，润电热力持有公司159,796,608股，占公司总股本的29.99 ...

证券代码：000692 证券简称：惠天热电 公告编号：2025-38 沈阳惠天热电股份有限公司 关于 2024 年度股东会增加临时提案 暨股东会补充通知 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、 误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 沈阳惠天热电股份有限公司（以下简称"惠天热电"或"公司"）第十届董事会2025 年第六次临时会议决定于2025年6月27日召开公司2024年度股东会，具体内容详见公司 于2025年6月7日发布的《关于召开2024年度股东会的通知》（公告编号：2025-34） 电热力"）的《关于向公司2024年度股东会增加临时提案的提议函》，提议将临时提案 《关于投资成立全胜热电全资子公司的议案》提交公司将于2025年6月27日召开的2024 年度股东会进行审议。 于投资成立全胜热电全资子公司的议案》《关于2024年度股东会增加临时提案的议案》。 公司董事会同意控股股东的提议，将上述临时提案提交公司2024年度股东会审议。临时 提案内容详见公司同日刊登在《中国证券报》《证券时报》《上海证券报》和巨潮资讯 网上《关于投资成立全胜热电全资子公司的公告》（公告编号：2025-36）。 ...

Group 1 - The bond 25京能洁能SCP002 has a net trading price of 99.99 yuan, down by 1.98 basis points, with a trading volume of 1.5 billion yuan and a latest yield of 1.7001% [1] - The bond is issued by Beijing Jingneng Clean Energy Power Co., Ltd., with an actual issuance amount of 1.5 billion yuan, maturing on August 7, 2025 [1] - The bond has a zero-coupon structure with a face value of 100 yuan and a coupon rate of 1.6700% [1] Group 2 - Beijing Jingneng Clean Energy Power Co., Ltd. was established in 1993 and primarily engages in electricity and heat production and supply [2] - The company has invested in 222 enterprises and participated in 634 bidding projects, holding 16 trademarks and 27 patents [2] - The company possesses 11 administrative licenses [2]