Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report The current rebound of lithium carbonate futures prices is mainly driven by capital sentiment, deviating from the fundamentals. The supply side shows increasing production capacity and high inventory, while the demand side experiences a decline in the retail growth rate of new energy vehicles and weak spot procurement. The over - supply pattern in the industry remains unchanged. Although the strengthening basis provides short - term support for the market, the reduction in positions and trading volume indicates market doubts about the sustainability of the price increase. In the next 1 - 2 weeks, the market is expected to show a volatile consolidation trend after a rise and fall. The upside is limited by insufficient spot acceptance and inventory pressure, and the downside is affected by repeated fluctuations in capital sentiment. [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Futures Market Data**: On July 15, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract closed at 66,660 yuan/ton, up 0.27% from the previous trading day. The basis rose to - 1,960 yuan/ton, with the near - month price still in a discount structure. The position of the main contract decreased by 3.94% to 342,146 lots, and the trading volume shrank by 24.69% to 764,028 lots, indicating a slight decline in market activity. [1] - **Supply - Demand and Inventory in the Industry Chain**: The domestic lithium carbonate capacity utilization rate slightly increased by 0.2 percentage points to 62%, with a slight release of production capacity. Lithium concentrate prices remained stable. The prices of power battery materials were differentiated, with lithium iron phosphate rising and ternary materials slightly falling. From July 1 - 6, new energy vehicle retail sales decreased by 11% month - on - month, and downstream enterprises had weak spot procurement willingness. Lithium carbonate inventory increased to 140,793 physical tons, up 1.77% week - on - week, with continuous inventory accumulation for four weeks, and the fundamental over - supply pressure continued. [2] - **Market Summary**: The current rebound of lithium carbonate futures prices is driven by capital sentiment, deviating from the fundamentals. The over - supply pattern remains unchanged. Although the strengthening basis supports the market in the short term, the reduction in positions and trading volume reflects market doubts about the price increase. In the next 1 - 2 weeks, the market is expected to show a volatile consolidation trend, with risks of correction after the ebb of sentiment. [3] 2. Industry Chain Price Monitoring - **Price Changes on July 15**: The price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 0.27% to 66,660 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 26.87% to - 1,960 yuan/ton. The position of the main contract decreased by 3.94%, and the trading volume decreased by 24.69%. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1.41% to 64,700 yuan/ton. Lithium concentrate prices remained stable, while the price of lithium iron phosphate increased and that of ternary materials decreased. [5] - **Other Price and Data Changes**: The lithium carbonate capacity utilization rate increased by 0.32% to 62%, and the inventory increased by 1.77% to 140,793 physical tons. The prices of some battery cells had slight changes. [5] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **Spot Market Quotations**: On July 15, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price and the average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased. The futures market's irrational fluctuations continued, and downstream enterprises had low acceptance of current prices, with weak procurement demand. Upstream lithium salt enterprises had tentative price - adjustment measures, and actual transactions were mainly dominated by traders. Future price trends depend on both supply - demand fundamentals and market sentiment. [6] - **Downstream Consumption**: From July 1 - 6, the national new energy vehicle retail sales were 135,000 units, a 21% year - on - year increase but an 11% month - on - month decrease. The new energy market retail penetration rate was 56.7%. The new energy vehicle wholesale was 125,000 units, a 31% year - on - year increase and a 0% month - on - month increase, with a wholesale penetration rate of 53.6%. [7] - **Industry News**: - On July 4, Tibet Geermu Mining's subsidiary's invested company received a construction permit for a lithium - boron mining project, which is beneficial for expanding production capacity. [8][9] - On June 30, Zhongkuang Resources planned a technical upgrade of its lithium salt production line, with a total investment of about 120.7 million yuan and a 6 - month shutdown for renovation. [9] - On June 24, the estimated total investment of the Mami Cuo Salt Lake project was 4.537 billion yuan, with a planned annual production of 50,000 tons of battery - grade lithium carbonate and 17,000 tons of borax. [9]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Weilan Lithium, is experiencing significant growth in its lithium battery business, leading to a continuous increase in operating performance, with a projected net profit for the first half of 2025 expected to rise by 79.29% to 115.15% compared to the same period last year [2][7]. Group 1: Business Performance - In 2024, Weilan Lithium achieved a revenue of 67.56 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 29.38%, and a net profit of 4.88 billion, up 246.43% [6]. - For the first quarter of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 17.28 billion, a year-on-year growth of 20.9%, and a net profit of 1.42 billion, reflecting a 100.56% increase [7]. - The anticipated net profit for the first half of 2025 is projected to be between 3 billion and 3.6 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 79.29% to 115.15% [7]. Group 2: Business Structure and Strategy - Weilan Lithium has undergone two strategic transformations, evolving into a company with three main business segments: LED chips, lithium batteries, and metal logistics [3][5]. - The company has expanded its overseas capacity and made significant progress in international markets, with overseas customer orders accounting for nearly 50% of total revenue in 2024 [3][10]. Group 3: Global Expansion and Innovation - Weilan Lithium has successfully secured substantial overseas orders, including a contract with Bosch for 87 million lithium batteries, valued at approximately 95.85 million USD [9]. - The company is actively investing in overseas production capacity, including a 280 million USD project in Malaysia for a 10GWh cylindrical lithium battery plant, expected to commence production in April 2025 [10]. - Research and development are crucial for maintaining competitiveness, with R&D expenses increasing significantly over the years, reaching 1.24 billion in the first quarter of 2025, which is 48.11% higher than the previous year [10].

Core Viewpoint - CATL is actively expanding its presence in the autonomous driving sector, particularly in the taxi segment, through a partnership with T3 Mobility, focusing on electric vehicle solutions and battery swapping technology [2][3]. Group 1: Partnership and Collaboration - CATL's subsidiary, Times Intelligent, has signed a collaboration agreement with T3 Mobility, centering around the CATL Rock Solid chassis, which will involve hardware manufacturing and operational services [3]. - The partnership aims to develop a platform for customization, create tailored products, and collaborate with automotive manufacturers and algorithm companies to leverage data for operational scenarios [3][4]. Group 2: Rock Solid Chassis Features - The Rock Solid chassis, unveiled in April, emphasizes high safety, strong performance, and advanced intelligence, utilizing fully controlled technology and a distributed electric drive system [6]. - It is designed with a biomimetic structure to enhance safety during collisions, ensuring no fire or explosion occurs at speeds of 120 km/h [6][7]. - The chassis includes advanced safety features such as intelligent high-voltage management and rapid disconnection systems to mitigate secondary risks in the event of a collision [7]. Group 3: Future of Robotaxi - The Robotaxi sector is witnessing rapid advancements, with companies like Pony.ai testing their autonomous systems in vehicles like the Arcfox Alpha T5 [9]. - In North America, major players such as Tesla, Waymo, and Amazon's Zoox are competing, with Waymo operating nearly 2,000 vehicles and Tesla predicting over 100,000 Robotaxis in the U.S. by the end of next year [11]. - However, challenges such as technology, cost, and regulatory hurdles remain significant barriers to large-scale deployment in the Robotaxi market [12][13].

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 11th Qidian Lithium Battery Industry Annual Conference aims to address technological advancements and challenges in the lithium battery sector, providing a platform for industry professionals to discuss and collaborate on future developments [2][3]. Industry Developments - In early 2025, BMW announced the upcoming installation of large cylindrical batteries in 2026, prompting a surge in the industry to develop 46-series large cylindrical batteries [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released new safety standards for electric vehicle batteries, sparking widespread discussions on battery performance [1] - Several companies have begun mass production of full-tab cylindrical batteries, which are expected to find applications in electric vehicles, tools, and smart home devices due to their high rate and long lifespan advantages [1] - Solid-state batteries continue to gain attention for their high safety and energy density, maintaining high interest levels throughout 2025 [1] Storage Sector Insights - The cancellation of mandatory storage policies by the government has raised concerns about future demand for storage batteries [1] - The 314Ah battery is gradually replacing the 280Ah as the mainstream cell, with companies like CATL and EVE Energy introducing cells with capacities exceeding 500Ah, indicating a trend towards larger capacity storage batteries [1] - The U.S. tariff policy has impacted the global storage industry, creating challenges for market players [1] Emerging Applications - The debut of humanoid robots at the Spring Festival Gala in early 2025 has led to increased interest in batteries for humanoid robots, becoming a new focus for battery companies [1] - Various local policies promoting low-altitude economies are accelerating the development of the eVTOL industry [1] Material Innovations - The 9-series ultra-high nickel ternary cathodes are being widely adopted, while lithium manganese iron phosphate cathodes are being tested in commercial vehicles and two-wheeled vehicles [1] - The application of silicon-based anodes in conjunction with full-tab technology is increasing [1] Event Highlights - The conference will feature over 1500 attendees and 30000 online viewers, making it the largest event of the year [3] - It will include a combination of forums and exhibitions, facilitating precise resource matching [3] - The 11th Qidian Golden Ding Award will be presented, establishing benchmarks for the new energy industry [3] Agenda Overview - The event will cover various specialized topics, including fast-charging ecosystems for cylindrical batteries, advancements in square battery technology, and innovations in soft-pack batteries [5][6] - Specific sessions will focus on battery materials, equipment, and safety technologies, addressing critical industry challenges [6][7] Award Details - The Qidian Golden Ding Award aims to recognize outstanding brands in the new energy battery industry, encouraging innovation and sustainable development [7] - The award selection process includes online voting and expert reviews, culminating in the announcement of winners during the conference [8] Participating Companies - Notable companies in attendance will include CATL, BYD, LG Energy, and EVE Energy, among others, representing various sectors of the lithium battery industry [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - Shanshan Co., Ltd. has significantly improved its performance in the first half of 2025, with a projected net profit increase of 810.41% to 1265.61% year-on-year, driven by its core businesses in negative materials and polarizers [2][4]. Financial Performance - The expected net profit for the first half of 2025 is between 160 million to 240 million yuan, while the non-recurring net profit is projected to be between 130 million to 195 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 443.79% to 715.68% [2]. - The company's financial expenses and losses from equity investments in subsidiaries are expected to impact profits by 150 million to 170 million yuan, indicating that the core business performance would be even stronger without these factors [2][3]. Business Segments - The negative materials and polarizer segments are expected to contribute a combined net profit of 350 million to 450 million yuan, highlighting their importance to overall profitability [4]. - Shanshan is a pioneer in the lithium battery materials sector, focusing on artificial graphite technology, and has maintained a leading position in the industry through cost control and customer structure advantages [4]. Market Trends - The recovery of the new energy vehicle supply chain since 2024, along with increased demand in the energy storage sector, has led to a rebound in both prices and shipments of negative materials [5]. - The company has seen a significant increase in orders from major manufacturers, with a more than 40% quarter-on-quarter increase in shipments in Q2 [5]. Production Capacity - Shanshan has a total planned production capacity of 600,000 tons across its bases in Inner Mongolia, Sichuan, and Yunnan, with the Yunnan facility being the largest integrated negative material base globally [5][6]. - The company is also developing a 100,000-ton negative material base in Finland to cater to European customers and is collaborating with Moroccan firms to develop natural graphite projects [6]. Cost Management - The graphite processing stage accounts for approximately 36% of production costs, and Shanshan has achieved significant cost reductions through technological innovations [7]. - The company has developed a new fixed crucible furnace process to enhance efficiency and reduce costs, with the actual production capacity of the crucible furnace in Sichuan reaching 150,000 tons [8][9]. Product Development - Shanshan is expanding its product offerings with high-energy density 6C ultra-fast charging negative materials and 6C+ extreme fast charging materials, which have been supplied to leading domestic clients [10]. - The company has also developed silicon-based negative materials, with production capabilities established and products certified by major clients [11][12]. Additional Business Insights - The polarizer business, bolstered by the acquisition of LG Chem's assets, has positioned Shanshan among the top four globally in market share, with a focus on high-end product development [12]. - Despite the bankruptcy restructuring of its controlling shareholder, Shanshan emphasizes that its business operations remain unaffected, and future performance will depend on its ability to innovate and expand its customer base [12].

摘要 围堵升级。 美国 针对全球贸易的 " 大网 " 正在 逐渐收拢 。 上周 ，特朗普政府向包括日、韩及东盟在内的 14 国发出信函，宣布自 8 月 1 日起大幅提升关 税，并明确警告将打击 " 为逃避高额关税而转运的货物 " 。这一行动，让曾被视为规避关税 " 安 全港 " 的东南亚，瞬间成为风暴眼。 从华盛顿的视角来看，其行动的理据清晰地呈现在贸易数据中。自 2018 年以来，越南对美出口 额激增的同时，其从中国的进口额也几乎同步增长。 另有数据显示在 2017 年至 2024 年间，中国在美国总进口中的份额下降了 8.1 个百分点，而越 南和墨西哥的份额则显著上升。这被美方解读为贸易 " 重新路由 " 的确凿证据，也正是此次精准 打击的靶心。 更进一步， 如果电芯本身在越南生产，采用了越南当地的正极、隔膜和电解液，但其关键的负极 材料和集流体依然从中国进口，那么这个产品的原产地究竟是哪里？ 越南与美国达成的初步协议极具代表性：经由越南转运的商品将面临 40% 的高额关税，其中锂电 池赫然在列。 印尼则同意对本国对美出口商品征收 19% 关税，但也附加了针对转运的惩罚性条款。 其他东盟国家面临的潜在税率 ...

Core Viewpoint - The UK government announced a £650 million electric vehicle subsidy plan to stimulate demand and support the transition to zero-emission vehicles (ZEV) in response to regulatory requirements and current market conditions [1][2]. Summary by Sections Subsidy Background - The subsidy targets the ZEV regulations set for 2024-2035, which require increasing ZEV penetration rates from 22% in 2024 to 100% by 2035. As of 2024, the actual penetration rate for battery electric vehicles (BEV) in the UK is 19.6%, with 225,000 BEVs sold in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 34.6% [1][2]. Penalties and Compliance - Manufacturers failing to meet ZEV targets will incur fines of £15,000 per vehicle. However, the new policy introduces a three-year grace period allowing manufacturers to "borrow" up to 25% of their future quotas if they cannot meet current year requirements from 2024 to 2026, with repayment required between 2027 and 2030 [2]. Subsidy Comparison - The current subsidy is more substantial than previous cycles, with discounts per vehicle reaching up to £3,750, compared to £1,500-£3,000 during the 2020-2022 period [2]. Impact Assessment - The £650 million subsidy is expected to support the sale of approximately 173,000 electric vehicles over the next 2.5 years, averaging about 69,000 vehicles per year. Assuming the total number of passenger cars remains stable, the BEV penetration rate could reach 28.1% in 2025 with the subsidy, compared to a projected 26.3% without it [2].

免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建 议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发， 需注明出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 66,420.00 | -240.00↓ 前20名净持仓（日，手） | -116,349.00 | -830.00↓ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约持仓量（日，手） | 340,618.00 | -1528.00↓ 近远月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 760.00 | 0.00 | | | 广期所仓单（日，手/吨） | 11,203.00 | -1.00↓ | | | | 现货市场 | 电池级碳酸 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - China's economic semi - annual "report card" shows that the H1 GDP reached 66.05 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 5.3%. The fixed - asset investment grew by 2.8%, while real estate development investment decreased by 11.2%. In June, the industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.8% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.8% [1]. - For A - shares, from a long - term perspective, the investment value is relatively high. CSI 500 and CSI 1000 may bring higher returns due to more science and innovation policy support, while SSE 50 and SSE 300 have more defensive value in the current macro - environment [2][11]. - The central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, which supports the price of treasury bond futures. However, the "anti - involution" policy drives up the prices of some commodities, and the price volatility of treasury bond futures may increase in the short term [3][12]. - The lithium carbonate market is in a state of short - term price rebound but may still fluctuate due to hedging pressure and no signs of production cuts at the mine end [4][5][20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. International News - On July 15, data from the US Department of Labor showed that the US unadjusted CPI in June increased by 2.7% year - on - year, the highest since February. The seasonally adjusted CPI increased by 0.3% month - on - month [6]. b. Domestic News - The Central Urban Work Conference was held in Beijing from July 14 - 15, emphasizing achievements in urban development since the 18th National Congress of the CPC [7]. c. Industry News - On July 15, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in June, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 422.87 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. From January to June, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 24.5458 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.0% [8]. d. Key Varieties Analysis - **Equity Index**: The US three major indexes mainly declined. The previous trading day's equity index fluctuated and declined. The communication sector led the rise, and the coal sector led the fall. The market turnover was 1.64 trillion yuan. The proportion of medium - and long - term funds in the capital market is expected to gradually increase [2][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds generally rose, and the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond fell to 1.6575%. The central bank's net investment in the open - market operation was 173.5 billion yuan [3][12]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The weekly production of carbonate lithium decreased by 644 tons to 18,123 tons. The demand is expected to increase, while the inventory increased by 1,510 tons to 138,347 tons [4][20]. e. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial**: - **Equity Index**: The investment value of A - shares is high in the long - term. The banking sector with high interest and low volatility has performed well since 2025 [2][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The external environment is more complex, and the central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, but the price volatility of treasury bond futures may increase in the short term [3][12]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins declined. The consumption is in a relative off - season, and the cost support has weakened [13]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures declined. The supply is shrinking, and the market expects better results. Soda ash futures also declined, and the inventory is under pressure [14]. - **Rubber**: The supply of new rubber in domestic production areas is affected by rainfall, but the overall supply pressure is increasing, and the upward space is limited [16]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: After the release of inflation data, gold and silver weakened. The short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has cooled, but the long - term driving force for gold still exists [17]. - **Copper**: The copper price may fluctuate within a range due to the low processing fee of concentrates and stable downstream demand [18]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price may fluctuate widely. The supply of concentrates is expected to improve, and downstream demand is mixed [19]. - **Black Metals**: - **Iron Ore**: The short - term macro - expectation is strong, and the iron ore price is expected to be strong with fluctuations [22]. - **Steel**: The supply and demand contradiction in the steel market is not significant, and the steel price is expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term [23]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply pressure still exists, and the market focuses on the "anti - involution" policy expectation [24]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The July USDA report is neutral to bearish, but the demand for US soybeans in biodiesel may support the price, and the domestic market is expected to fluctuate [25]. - **Oils and Fats**: The MPOB report is neutral to bearish, but the strong demand in India may support the palm oil price, and the overall market is expected to fluctuate [26][27]. - **Shipping Index**: - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index rose strongly. The market is still speculating on the freight rate space in August, and the focus is on the 10 - contract [28].

盘面上，机器人、医药、短剧游戏板块涨幅居前，能源金属、保险板块走弱。 | 板块名称 | 涨幅量 | 主力净量 | 主力金额 | 板块名称 | 涨幅晶 | 主力净量 | 主力金额 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 动物疫苗 | +2.91% | 1.54 | +2.797. | 能源金属 | -1.80% | -2.87 | -3.97 亿 | | 仿制药一致性 ... | +2.67% | 1.40 | +20.68 7. | 保险 | -1.57% | -0.21 | -4.13 7 | | 青蒿素 | +2.65% | 2.02 | +3.71 Z | 钢铁 | -1.43% | -0.80 | -5.96 Z | | 萬流感 | +2.33% | 1.14 | +3.08 7. | 元件 | -1.41% | -1.85 | -25.95 Z | | 海南 | +2.31% | 1.19 | +4.22 7 | ヂ属铝 | -1.27% | -0.35 | -3.70亿 | | 阿尔茨海默概念 | +2.28% | 1.47 | ...