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半月谈丨服贸处罚,为欧美关税谈判破局?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-02 08:13
Group 1 - The European Union (EU) imposed significant fines on Apple and Meta, with Apple fined €500 million and Meta €200 million, citing violations of the EU's Digital Markets Act [2][4] - The fines are seen as a response to the ongoing trade tensions between the EU and the US, particularly following President Trump's announcement of tariffs on the EU [1][5] - The EU's actions are part of a broader strategy to assert its regulatory authority over US tech giants and to protect its digital market [6][7] Group 2 - The EU's Digital Markets Act, which came into effect in March 2024, provides a legal framework for regulating the behavior of large tech companies operating in Europe [6][7] - The EU has identified a trade surplus of nearly €200 billion with the US in goods, but a service trade deficit exceeding €100 billion, highlighting the importance of US tech companies in the European market [5] - Major US tech firms, including Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Oracle, dominate over half of the cloud services market in Europe, indicating their significant market presence [5]
美加贸易缓和未提振加元,美元兑加元1.3650震荡,聚焦非农数据!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-02 08:11
美元兑加元汇率在技术层面呈现明显的阻力特征。日线图显示,汇价每次上攻20日指数移动均线附近都 遭遇抛压,市场倾向于采取逢高做空策略。14日相对强弱指数徘徊在40附近,若跌破该水平将释放进一 步看空信号。关键支撑位于6月16日低点1.3540,若失守该位置将打开下探1.3500心理关口的空间。 美加贸易关系出现缓和迹象,但这一积极进展并未对加元汇率产生预期中的提振效果。美元兑加元汇率 目前在1.3650附近窄幅震荡,技术面显示该货币对持续受制于20日指数移动均线压力。市场焦点已转向 即将公布的美国非农就业数据,投资者期待从中获得美联储货币政策走向的关键信号。 美国6月非农就业数据成为本周市场关注的核心事件。根据芝加哥商品交易所联邦基金利率期货显示, 市场已基本确定美联储7月会议维持利率不变的可能性接近100%,而9月降息25个基点的预期已被充分 定价。投资者同时关注今晚公布的ADP私人就业数据,作为非农数据的前瞻性指引。加拿大经济基本面 方面,尽管全球大宗商品价格存在波动,但加元受益于油价近期企稳,加上加拿大央行政策保持中性略 偏鹰派立场,为汇价提供一定支撑。 美加贸易缓和进展与市场反应 加拿大财政部宣布取消数 ...
许正宇:8月1日起香港金管局将开始接受稳定币牌照申请 欢迎机构按实际业务需要申请
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-07-02 07:59
原文如下: 立法会五题:推动稳定币的发展 以下是今日(七月二日)在立法会会议上吴杰庄议员的提问和财经事务及库务局局长许正宇的答覆: 问题: 本年五月通过的《稳定币条例草案》旨在于香港设立法币稳定币发行人的发牌及监管制度。有意见认为 这是全球Web3发展的里程碑,也是香港成为国际Web3中心的重要一步。就此,政府可否告知本会: 7月2日,香港财经事务及库务局局长许正宇就立法会会议上吴杰庄议员的提问答覆表示,今年五月,立 法会通过了《稳定币条例草案》,为香港引入锚定法定货币的稳定币发行人发牌制度。条例进一步完善 香港数字资产活动的监管框架,以保障货币和金融稳定,并巩固提升香港国际金融中心的地位。《稳定 币条例》将于今年八月一日生效,届时香港金融管理局(金管局)将开始接受牌照申请。目前,金管局正 就落实条例的具体指引进行市场谘询,争取尽快订立指引。 (一)如何推动稳定币应用场景的拓展,包括推动稳定币发行机构与内地应用场景连结,以促进稳定币从 监管合规到商业生态落地; 香港的稳定币发行人发牌制度具灵活性和开放性,允许持牌发行人可选择不同法币币种,作为发行稳定 币的锚定法币。欢迎全球不同地方的机构按实际业务需要申请牌照 ...
科技芯片半导体光刻机、可控核聚变表现突出
He Xun Cai Jing· 2025-07-02 07:58
(原标题:科技芯片半导体光刻机、可控核聚变表现突出) 晚间收评资讯:股指分化但震荡上行,有望调整至3490。板块呈普涨转分化态势,科技芯片半导体光刻 机、可控核聚变表现突出,创新药因利好有表现,军工修整,数字货币、金融证券调整。个股仍是结构 性行情,需调仓换股、汰弱换强,以短线为主。 实战班成绩亮眼,昨日科技方向个股当天脱离成本, 今日新高涨停,收获12 - 13%;"好上好"连续3板后继续新高,收益40% + ;13天让恒宝股份翻倍。 利好消息再发布 (25.7.1午评) 和讯自选股写手 风险提示:以上内容仅作为作者或者嘉宾的观点,不代表和讯的任何立场,不构成与和讯相关的任何投 资建议。在作出任何投资决定前,投资者应根据自身情况考虑投资产品相关的风险因素,并于需要时咨 询专业投资顾问意见。和讯竭力但不能证实上述内容的真实性、准确性和原创性,对此和讯不做任何保 证和承诺。 本文由 AI 算法生成,仅作参考,不涉投资建议,使用风险自担 股票名称 "恒宝股份","好上好","万丰奥威","每日互动","雄帝" 板块名称 "科技芯片半导体光刻机","可控核聚变","创新药","大金融","消费","银行电力","军 ...
复旦大学“稳定币与国际金融大变局”线上研讨会成功举办,探讨数字货币新趋势
Guan Cha Zhe Wang· 2025-07-02 07:26
稳定币作为数字金融领域的新兴产物,近年来在全球范围内快速发展,其对主权货币体系、跨境支付与 金融稳定的影响日益凸显。 复旦大学金融研究院执行院长王永钦从货币体系演进的历史视角分析了稳定币的定位与局限。他认为, 稳定币的发展经历了从无抵押的比特币、算法稳定币到如今以主权货币为抵押的阶段,目前的形式本质 上类似于货币市场基金。王永钦指出,稳定币无法满足货币的三大特性(单一性、弹性、诚信),其快 速发展可能加剧美国国债短缺问题,进而影响全球金融稳定。他认为,美国经济实力的相对下降和中国 的崛起和亚洲经济地位的提升将进一步凸显安全资产短缺的挑战,中国应尽快推动国债成为全球性安全 资产,来缓解全球安全资产短缺问题,进一步提高人民币的国际地位和推动人民币国际化。 上海金融发展与金融与发展实验室首席专家曾刚从货币本位演进的角度解读稳定币。他回顾了从金本 位、布雷顿森林体系到信用本位的货币体系发展历程,指出信用本位下央行与商业银行的双层货币发行 体系虽赋予了货币供给弹性,但也带来了管理挑战。曾刚认为,稳定币作为数字货币的一种形式,对传 统货币体系既有挑战也有补充,未来货币体系可能呈现多元化发展态势。他特别提到,数字原住民对资 ...
最终对决将开启,马克龙向美国放狠话,王毅将访欧,这是要变天了?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-02 06:34
Group 1 - The trade war between the US and the EU has intensified, with French President Macron criticizing certain countries' tariff policies as tools of coercion, specifically targeting the US [1][3] - Macron's proposal for a "zero tariffs for zero tariffs" strategy has become a central countermeasure for Europe, warning that if the US maintains a 10% baseline tariff, Europe will implement equivalent retaliatory measures [3][4] - The EU's trade deficit with the US has expanded to $158 billion in 2024, with significant imbalances in aerospace and digital services [3] Group 2 - The European Commission is preparing to impose tariffs on $95 billion worth of US goods, while also implementing restrictions in digital tax and public procurement [3][4] - The actual impact of tariffs is evident in Europe, with a report indicating an 18% decrease in EU steel capacity utilization and a €2.3 billion reduction in automotive exports [4] - If the trade war escalates, GDP growth in the US and EU could decline by 0.8% and 1.2%, respectively, prompting European companies to make defensive adjustments [4] Group 3 - China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi's visit to Europe is significant, coinciding with the 50th anniversary of China-EU diplomatic relations and the first strategic communication after the EU Commission's reshuffle [6][9] - The visit aims to provide a platform for direct communication and lay the political groundwork for the upcoming China-EU leaders' meeting [6] - The EU is experiencing a strategic dilemma, trying to maintain economic sovereignty while not fully aligning with either the US or China [6][9] Group 4 - The trade war's ripple effects are impacting global supply chains, with the UN warning that the most vulnerable economies are suffering the most from US tariff policies [7] - Wang Yi's visit offers Europe a strategic opportunity, aligning China's open and cooperative approach with the EU's goal of strategic autonomy [7][9] - Despite existing tensions, both sides have reached a consensus to restart negotiations on price commitments, indicating a potential for cooperation [7][9]
英大证券晨会纪要-20250702
British Securities· 2025-07-02 06:16
Market Overview - The report indicates that the A-share market is expected to maintain a relatively strong trend in the short term, with a high likelihood of a fluctuating upward pattern for the index [2][9][10] - Recent trading volume has been around 1.5 trillion, reflecting active market participation and potential for individual stock profitability to expand [4][10] Investment Opportunities - Three main investment lines are highlighted: 1. Focus on companies with better-than-expected mid-year performance as the reporting window opens in July, suggesting a strategy of buying low [3][10] 2. Emphasis on technology sectors such as military industry, robotics, AI, semiconductors, and digital economy, with a caution to avoid overvalued stocks and speculative plays [3][10] 3. Look for rebound opportunities in sectors like new energy and brokerage firms during market pullbacks [3][10] Sector Analysis - The pharmaceutical sector saw a collective rise, driven by new measures from the National Healthcare Security Administration and the National Health Commission to support high-quality development of innovative drugs [6][10] - Bank stocks rebounded after a period of decline, supported by their low valuation and high dividend yield, although there are concerns about the impact of economic slowdown on credit demand and interest income [7][10] - The report notes a significant rise in brain-computer interface stocks, particularly following advancements from Neuralink, although it cautions that this may still be in the speculative phase [8][10]
为什么这几年感觉这么难?
Hu Xiu· 2025-07-02 05:17
本文来自微信公众号:局外人的视界,作者:卡夫卡不忙了,原文标题:《黄金啊,黄金坑》,题图来 自:视觉中国 涨了就无限看多,跌了就开始哆哆嗦嗦。市场不是这么玩的,继续这么玩是会被市场玩残的。 我一直跟大家说,投资要讲逻辑,涨跌都有它的内在逻辑。 纳斯达克能不断创新高,源自印钞机加持,现在有了稳定币这个赛博神器,就等于除了开美联储的印钞 机,还能再开一把赛博印钞机。 所谓稳定币对应的是美元美债,说起来发行人发行稳定币背后应该对应百分百的资产储备,笑死了,这 说法就跟开银行需要百分百准备金一样,可能吗? 如果不可能,有办法,你也就意味着口子一开,稳定币能用赛博技术放个十倍百倍甚至更高的杠杆,这 不就等于是钱来了吗? 要知道,资产价格是由市场流动性决定的。资本一看,好家伙,这杠杆又能继续大干特干,还能不赶紧 去价格给顶上去? 有人又要问了,既然赛博印钞机已开,为什么黄金价格反而跌了? 道理很简单,黄金最大的多头是谁?各国央行啊! 最近这段时间,美帝在中东吃了大瘪。有人说,这波胜利属于美以,吃亏的是波斯。 笑死了,波斯当然吃亏了。但问题是,一个如此不堪的波斯,都能把美帝军力的底给探出来了。美以导 弹技术不行,生产能力更 ...
7月2日早间重要公告一览
Xi Niu Cai Jing· 2025-07-02 05:10
Group 1 - Shida Shenghua expects a net loss of 52 million to 60 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 236.64% to 257.66% [1] - ST Zhizhi's vice president Wang Dong resigned for personal reasons, effective immediately upon delivery of the resignation to the board [1] - Haoyuan Pharmaceutical plans to increase capital by 400 million yuan to its wholly-owned subsidiary through a debt-to-equity swap, raising the registered capital from 400 million to 800 million yuan [1] Group 2 - Longxun Co. announced that shareholders and executives plan to reduce their holdings by up to 2% of the company's shares [2] - Aijian Group confirmed it has not engaged in any stablecoin-related business as of now [3] - Yanghe Co.'s chairman Zhang Liandong resigned due to work adjustments, effective immediately [5] Group 3 - Huanwei New Materials announced a stock suspension due to the major matter that may lead to a change in control [5] - Hualing Cable recently won contracts worth 456 million yuan in the power new energy sector, accounting for 10.97% of its audited revenue for 2024 [6] - Aerospace Changfeng plans to publicly transfer 55.45% of its stake in Aerospace Boke [6] Group 4 - Suzhou Planning is planning to acquire control of Dongjin Aerospace Technology, leading to a stock suspension for up to 10 trading days [6] - Yuexiu Capital intends to increase its stake in Yuexiu Real Estate using up to 204.22 million yuan through the Hong Kong Stock Connect [6] - Baichuan Co.'s actual controller and chairman Zheng Tiejiang is under investigation and has received a detention notice [7] Group 5 - XWANDA plans to issue H-shares and apply for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [8] - ST Aowei reported a loss of approximately 25.04 million yuan in inventory due to poor storage by a third party [8] - Yian Technology plans to increase capital by 120 million yuan to its subsidiary, raising its equity stake from 60% to 72.973% [9] Group 6 - Dongli New Science's wholly-owned subsidiary was applied for bankruptcy reorganization by creditors due to insolvency [11] - Bochuang Technology changed its name to Changxin Bochuang Technology, effective July 2, 2025 [14] - Huayang Co.'s controlling shareholder received a notice of administrative penalty from the China Securities Regulatory Commission [15] Group 7 - Hangzhou Thermal Power's shareholders plan to reduce their holdings by up to 4.09% of the company's shares [16] - Guoke Military Industry's two shareholders plan to reduce their holdings by up to 1.81% of the company's shares [17] - Pangu Intelligent's seven shareholders plan to reduce their holdings by up to 1% of the company's shares [19]
一文带你了解数字人民币
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-02 04:08
Core Insights - The digital yuan (e-CNY) represents a significant transformation in currency forms, moving from physical to electronic and then to digital, with strategic implications for internationalization, monetary policy, and financial inclusivity [2][12] - The digital yuan is a legal digital currency issued by the People's Bank of China, distinct from cryptocurrencies, and is backed by state sovereignty [2][5] - The digital yuan's development has been rapid, with pilot programs expanding geometrically since 2020, showcasing China's leadership in the central bank digital currency (CBDC) space [5][9] Digital Yuan Features - The digital yuan employs a centralized architecture with a "one currency, two libraries, three centers" model, ensuring state control over issuance while enhancing transaction transparency and user privacy [3][5] - Key features include anonymous small transactions, traceable large transactions, and offline payment capabilities, which enhance convenience and security [3][7] - The digital yuan has penetrated various sectors, including retail, transportation, and government services, significantly improving financial service efficiency [7][9] Development Timeline - The journey of the digital yuan began in 2014 with the establishment of a research group, leading to a structured exploration of digital currency frameworks and technologies [5][11] - Following the establishment of the Digital Currency Research Institute in 2017, the digital yuan entered the development phase, with internal trials starting in 2020 [5][11] - By 2024, the digital yuan had seen the opening of 180 million personal wallets and transaction amounts exceeding 7.3 trillion yuan, indicating a rapid adoption rate compared to other countries' CBDCs [5][9] Strategic Implications - The rise of the digital yuan is reshaping the international monetary system, providing alternatives to the US dollar for countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative [9][12] - The digital yuan's design allows for more precise monetary policy implementation and enhances financial inclusivity while balancing privacy and regulatory needs [9][11] - The digital yuan is expected to drive a trillion-dollar fintech market, fostering innovation across the entire industry chain [9][12] Future Trends - Future developments of the digital yuan will likely involve deeper technological integration and broader ecosystem expansion, with projections indicating that cross-border settlement volumes could account for 15% of total RMB internationalization by 2030 [11][12] - The introduction of regulatory frameworks will clarify the responsibilities of market participants, supporting the sustainable development of the digital yuan [11][12]