Group 1 - The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant downturn, with Dogecoin dropping over 5% and Bitcoin falling more than 1% before recovering slightly [1] - President Trump announced that starting July 4, the U.S. government will notify countries without tariff agreements about new tax rates, which will range from 10% to 70%, effective August 1 [1] - Trump indicated that the new tariffs will likely be implemented on August 1, with an expectation of sending out 10 to 12 letters to trade partners on July 4, and all letters expected to be sent by July 9 [1] Group 2 - The Cambodian government announced on July 4 that it has reached a tariff agreement with the U.S., becoming the second Southeast Asian country to do so after Vietnam [2] - EU-U.S. trade negotiations on July 4 did not achieve breakthroughs, with discussions expected to continue until the weekend, as the EU seeks a principle agreement by July 9 [2] - EU Trade Commissioner Šefčovič is in Washington negotiating with U.S. trade representatives to reach an agreement [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the resumption of jet engine supply from General Electric to COMAC indicates a gradual easing of U.S. technology restrictions on China, suggesting a new cooperative dynamic between the two countries [1] - The recent lifting of restrictions on chip and ethane supplies further supports the notion of improved U.S.-China relations, which is seen as a positive signal for the market and may lead to a turning point for the Chinese economy in the second half of the year [1] - The market has been adjusting due to trade restrictions, and the gradual resolution of these issues is expected to restore market confidence [1] Group 2 - The unexpected news of the U.S. resuming jet engine supplies has sparked bullish sentiment in the A-share market, despite the expectation of a market adjustment [2] - The market's upward movement driven by positive news may not change the underlying market dynamics, leading to a potential return to previous levels after initial gains [2] - The index's performance may not correlate with individual stock movements, indicating that even if the index reaches new highs, many stocks may not follow suit [3] Group 3 - The three major indices experienced slight increases, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high for the year, although there was significant divergence in market performance [4] - A large number of stocks experienced declines, leading to a greater loss effect compared to previous days, particularly in the small-cap sector [4] - The market's downturn is attributed to the impact of new quantitative regulations, which have adversely affected short-term market dynamics and made it challenging for investors to capitalize on opportunities [4]

Core Viewpoint - Investors holding S&P 500 index components may soon indirectly hold Bitcoin due to Strategy's potential inclusion in the index [1][2] Group 1: Company Qualifications - Strategy has crossed the final hurdle to qualify for inclusion in the S&P 500 index, having met the 12-month continuous profitability requirement [1] - The company is expected to report a profit of $14 billion for Q2, with a net profit of $11 billion over the past 12 months, following changes in accounting rules that allow fair value reporting of digital assets [1] Group 2: Market Implications - If included, Strategy would become the second crypto-related company in the S&P 500 this year, following Coinbase's inclusion in May [2] - The inclusion of Strategy in the S&P 500 would mean that all major index funds would hold Strategy stock, further legitimizing Bitcoin in mainstream finance [2] Group 3: Selection Process - The S&P 500 Index Committee has complete discretion in the selection process, which may be contentious and widely debated [1] - Factors considered by the committee include index balance, economic representation, and stability, with some analysts questioning whether Strategy's Bitcoin accumulation model may hinder its inclusion [2]

Group 1 - Minna Bank is collaborating with Fireblocks, Solana Japan, and TIS to assess the feasibility of stablecoins in daily financial services [1] - The bank is also testing the issuance of stablecoins through Solana and evaluating the support capabilities of Web3 wallets for user-friendly financial experiences [2] - Fireblocks' Chief Strategy Officer highlighted that Japan's banking sector is increasingly focusing on corporate financing and international trade, viewing stablecoins as a potential means to simplify traditional banking payment processes [2] Group 2 - The popularity of stablecoins is rising globally as governments and financial institutions explore their applications in payments, settlements, and trade [2] - In Europe, over 75% of crypto transactions on the Oobit platform involve stablecoins, with retail and travel spending leading in countries like Poland, Lithuania, and Germany [2] - South Korean banks are launching stablecoin projects through compliant channels, while U.S. lawmakers are working on a federal regulatory framework for dollar-backed stablecoins [2] Group 3 - Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (SMFG) is partnering with Avalanche developer Ava Labs, Fireblocks, and TIS to prepare for a stablecoin pilot project [3] - The pilot is expected to launch by the end of 2025 or early 2026, with plans for a full rollout later that year [3]

Market Overview - The market experienced a significant reversal on July 4, with a notable intraday high of 35 points for the Shanghai index and 0.7 for Shenzhen, but closed with Shenzhen in the red and Shanghai up only 11 points, primarily driven by bank stocks [1][4]. Reasons for Market Surge - The surge was influenced by the recent performance of US stocks reaching historical highs, creating positive sentiment that could translate to the domestic market [2]. - The revival of stablecoins also contributed to the upward movement, indicating a warming sentiment in the cryptocurrency sector [3]. - Speculation regarding potential interest rate cuts by banks, with discussions about the implications of rates dropping to zero, led to increased interest in bank stocks as an investment alternative [3][4]. Reasons for Market Decline - The market's decline was attributed to a lack of follow-through buying after the initial surge, as many investors were cautious due to the underlying fundamentals not supporting a sustained rally [4][5]. - A significant number of stocks, approximately 3,900, declined during the day, indicating a broader market weakness despite the initial gains [5]. Future Market Outlook - The market is expected to remain stable with a potential upward movement towards 3,800 points, driven by low interest rates making stocks more attractive than bank deposits [6]. - Certain sectors, such as PCB, are anticipated to attract investment due to their strong earnings potential, while stablecoins are seen as a strategic long-term investment opportunity [7]. - The likelihood of breaking through the 3,500-point level in July is considered high, with current levels around 3,472 [7].

Market Overview - Over 4,100 stocks declined, and the three major indices experienced a volume surge followed by a pullback, raising questions about the market's ability to continue rising [1] - Despite the pullback, the market has not provided a clear signal indicating the end of the upward trend, as the Shanghai Composite Index remains above the recent breakout point of 3,460 [1] - The market has not breached the critical 5-day moving average, which is often a precursor to a market top, indicating that the current trend is still intact [1] Sector Performance - Key sectors such as banking, insurance, steel, and coal are still showing strength, suggesting that internal market funds are actively participating and pushing indices higher [1] - Digital currencies and other sectors are also performing strongly, indicating ongoing rotation and movement of funds within the market [2] Investment Strategy - For investors holding low-position stocks that have not experienced significant increases, it is advisable to hold and wait, especially if their positions are not heavily weighted [2] - Caution is advised for short-term positions that have seen substantial gains recently, such as solid-state batteries and marine economy stocks, as they may face short-term adjustment risks [2]

Market Overview - On July 4, A-shares showed mixed performance with the three major indices fluctuating. The total trading volume reached 1.45 trillion yuan, an increase of 121 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with over 4,100 stocks declining [1] - Market focus was on stablecoins, digital currencies, and cross-border payment sectors, while banking and gaming sectors strengthened. Energy metals and small metals sectors experienced declines [1] Stock Performance - A total of 39 stocks hit the daily limit up, with 10 stocks achieving consecutive limit ups. The limit up rate was 65% (excluding ST and delisted stocks) [3] - Notable stocks included Chengbang Co., which saw a significant drop after hitting the limit up, while innovative drug concept stock Seli Medical achieved a limit up for the fourth consecutive day [3] Key Stocks and Trading Data - **Shenzhou Cell**: Increased by 16.46% with a trading volume of 20.17 million shares and a total transaction value of 1.63 billion yuan. Institutional net buying amounted to 156 million yuan [18] - **Jingxin Pharmaceutical**: Rose by 10.02% with a trading volume of 8.74 million shares and a total transaction value of 1.49 billion yuan. The company focuses on innovative drugs and medical devices [9][10] - **Hengbao Co.**: Engaged in financial technology and digital currency, with a focus on expanding overseas markets. The company reported overseas revenue of 93.62 million yuan, accounting for 10.37% of total revenue [12] - **Jingbeifang**: Engaged in stablecoin and digital currency sectors, recently signed a strategic cooperation agreement to enhance financial technology innovation [15] Institutional Trading - The top three net buying stocks by institutions were Shenzhou Cell, Hengbao Co., and Nanling Technology, with net purchases of 156 million yuan, 98.35 million yuan, and 91.73 million yuan respectively [6] - The top three net selling stocks were Haoshanghao, Jingbeifang, and Yingfangwei, with net sales of 110 million yuan, 105 million yuan, and 72.72 million yuan respectively [6] Summary of Key Companies - **Jingxin Pharmaceutical**: Focuses on the mental health sector and has a first-class innovative drug expected to be listed in March 2024, with plans to enter the medical insurance payment directory [9][10] - **Hengbao Co.**: Involved in financial technology and digital security, with a focus on digital currency innovation and expanding into overseas markets [12] - **Jingbeifang**: Actively participates in the construction of key digital currency systems for major state-owned banks and aims to innovate in financial technology [15]

证券研究报告|行业专题报告 海外 2025年7月4日 稳定币法案推动行业加速 看好发行平台、支付以及RWA场景 --加密行业专题报告 姓名：郑嘉伟 资格编号：S1350523120001 邮箱：zhengjiawei@huayuanstock.com 证券分析师 证券分析师 姓名：陆韵婷 资格编号：S1350525050002 邮箱：luyuntingn@huayuanstock.com 证券分析师 姓名：郑冰倩 资格编号：S1350525040002 邮箱：zhengbingqian@huayuanstock.com 证券分析师 姓名：于炳麟 资格编号：S1350524060002 邮箱：yubinglin@huayuanstock.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 报告要点：看好发行平台、支付、RWA应用场景 n 稳定币法案推动合规机构扎堆发行 行业发展加速 Ø 稳定币作为连接传统金融与区块链经济的重要桥梁，已形成以USDT和USDC为代表的双寡头格局。USDT依托灵活监管，在线下支付、跨境 交易及OTC市场展现强大适用性，截至2025年3月，市占率高达62%；而USDC则凭借全额储备、 ...

Core Viewpoint - A heated debate is unfolding on Wall Street regarding MicroStrategy's aggressive strategy of accumulating Bitcoin under the leadership of Michael Saylor, with contrasting views from short-seller Jim Chanos who criticizes the company's valuation premium and Saylor who defends the strategy as a revolutionary financial innovation [1][3]. Group 1: Chanos' Critique - Jim Chanos argues that MicroStrategy's business model is illogical, emphasizing that its stock price should not command a premium over the value of its Bitcoin holdings [1][3]. - As of June 30, MicroStrategy holds 597,325 Bitcoins valued at approximately $64 billion, making it the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, yet its stock price has significantly outpaced the growth of its underlying assets [3]. Group 2: Saylor's Defense - Michael Saylor contends that investing in MicroStrategy stock offers a more compliant and convenient way for investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin compared to direct purchases [4]. - Saylor promotes a leveraged investment strategy, suggesting that using borrowed funds to buy Bitcoin can amplify returns significantly [1][5]. Group 3: Legal and Market Concerns - Despite the losses faced by short-sellers, MicroStrategy is facing legal challenges, with two lawsuits filed against it for allegedly misleading investors about the impact of Bitcoin price volatility on its stock [6]. - Analysts express concerns that the premium on MicroStrategy's stock may decline due to limited interest from fixed-income investors in the company's convertible debt and preferred stock [6]. Group 4: Imitation and Market Trends - MicroStrategy's strategy has inspired a wave of imitators, with numerous companies adopting similar "Bitcoin treasury" models, intensifying competition for Bitcoin assets [7]. - Data indicates that publicly traded companies added a total of 245,191 Bitcoins to their balance sheets in the first half of 2025, more than doubling the increase in Bitcoin ETF holdings during the same period [7]. Group 5: Short-Selling Dynamics - Interestingly, short-sellers have found more success targeting Saylor's imitators rather than MicroStrategy itself, with profits of $549 million from shorting four of these imitators in June [8].

Market Overview - The main funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets experienced a net outflow of 23.655 billion yuan, with the ChiNext board seeing a net outflow of 11.352 billion yuan and the CSI 300 index stocks experiencing a net outflow of 6.758 billion yuan [1] Stock Performance - Forest Packaging had the highest limit-up order volume, reaching 545,800 hands, followed by Jin Yi Culture, Huayin Power, and Shaan Energy with limit-up orders of 314,500 hands, 235,800 hands, and 214,800 hands respectively [2] - In terms of limit-up order funds, ten stocks had orders exceeding 100 million yuan, with Forest Packaging, Jin An Guo Ji, Hopson, and Huayin Power leading with 495 million yuan, 150 million yuan, 144 million yuan, and 144 million yuan respectively [2] Digital Currency Sector - The digital currency concept saw significant gains, with stablecoins, cross-border payments, and other fintech-related concepts rising on July 4 [3] - Companies like Desheng Technology are actively participating in digital currency projects, including the Beijing Minsheng Card, which integrates digital RMB [4] - Jingbeifang is involved in the system construction for digital currencies and is exploring stablecoin applications [4] Innovative Pharmaceuticals - Companies such as Seli Medical and Rejing Bio are making strides in innovative drug development, with Seli Medical's new drug application being accepted by the National Medical Products Administration [5] - Rejing Bio is focusing on antibody and nucleic acid drugs through strategic investments in innovative pharmaceutical companies [5] Printed Circuit Board (PCB) Industry - Jin An Guo Ji reported a revenue of 168 million yuan from its PCB business in 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 32.81% [6] - Aoshikang specializes in high-precision PCB development and production, targeting high-value products in AI servers, automotive electronics, and high-frequency communication devices [7]